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No Brainer Trades

  • #5,001
  • Edited 7:53am Oct 30, 2008 7:44am | Edited 7:53am
I am looking at buy on the eurusd if it should come down to 127.36 area. has a way to go, but has been rejected at 131 a couple of times so might fall to there. otherwise will look at breakout over 131 to go up to 132.59. would appreciate any comments on my lines as I daresay others are looking at this pair. toodles.
  • #5,002
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:46am Oct 30, 2008 7:46am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
If you let me know any specifics might be able to help you out.
I can definitely see the levels, but my problem stems from the fundamental trading I'm used to. Using 40 point stops is something completely new to me. I won't say what my fundamental stops used to be, as people will probably call me a lunatic!!! But it worked...eventually...as long as you had the bias correct.

Using this method, to me it seems like an incredible gamble to expect price to bounce from a level. What about the level below, or the level below that? So then maybe place the stop below the next level, but then again, if you have a fundamental bias, then why not just place it two levels below?

If I start to do this, then I'm basically trading fundamentals again, and not following the original thread topic.

With regards to the bars, I have heard some traders call them exhaustion spikes. Could they then be used in that context to possibly warn of an impending reversal, without necessarily trading them in the usual way with stops placed above the spike, but rather placed above the next level. I've seen too many of these bars be taken out only to reverse a few bars later, quite often with another exhaustion spike.

So I'm looking at 1.3000 and waiting for a spike of some sort. I just can't play these blindly right now as my confidence level is too low. My initial stop would be below 1.2830.

Thanks.
  • #5,003
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:55am Oct 30, 2008 7:55am
sorry guys. it was the eurjpy trade I am looking at. see, I get too excited. that is my problem.
  • #5,004
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:28am Oct 30, 2008 8:28am
What trades are you guys looking to make today? The EURUSD seems right about to hit the 1.3000 level posted in the nobrainer blog.
  • #5,005
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:35am Oct 30, 2008 8:35am
Quoting libb
What trades are you guys looking to make today? The EURUSD seems right about to hit the 1.3000 level posted in the nobrainer blog.
I am in this right now.about 30 pips up.What a clear bounce that was.Maybe this is what brv is talking about.
  • #5,006
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:36am Oct 30, 2008 8:36am
Quoting jlmac27
I am in this right now.about 30 pips up.What a clear bounce that was.Maybe this is what brv is talking about.
Yep, I got in as well! I'm up 30. But this is where I'm unexperienced.....when are you going to get out?
  • #5,007
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:43am Oct 30, 2008 8:43am
if your stop loss is 40pips, then u should be aiming for 40pips and out of the market, unless the market is moving towards your direction very quickly, if not just get out
  • #5,008
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:44am Oct 30, 2008 8:44am
Quoting jlmac27
I am in this right now.about 30 pips up.What a clear bounce that was.Maybe this is what brv is talking about.

Be extra carefull when dealing with countertrend trades. Move stop to b/e when your able to safely and if stopped out - better safe then sorry;-)
  • #5,009
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:47am Oct 30, 2008 8:47am
Quoting belekas
Be extra carefull when dealing with countertrend trades. Move stop to b/e when your able to safely and if stopped out - better safe then sorry;-)

No kidding, it just broke through 1.3000 and on the way down.
  • #5,010
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:47am Oct 30, 2008 8:47am
Quoting jlmac27
I am in this right now.about 30 pips up.What a clear bounce that was.Maybe this is what brv is talking about.
Catching it the other way now!
  • #5,011
  • Oct 30, 2008 8:55am Oct 30, 2008 8:55am
Looks like USD gaining strengh across the board. USDX bounced from support @ 83.17/20
  • #5,012
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:07am Oct 30, 2008 9:07am
Hi BRV and other contributors

The dollar seems to have weakened from the FOMC rate cut and consequent rises in stock markets. I'm just wondering what, if any effects, we might be looking out for next week when there's the US Presidential election?

I'm sure I've read somewhere that presidential end of terms tend to be good for stocks, resulting in rising indices. We also get the impression, here in the UK, that Obama is going to be the winner and that the polls show the American people trust him with the economy more than they do McCain.

I'm not interested in the merits of one against the other. But I do wonder whether there's any 'anticipatory effect' going on at the moment in addition to the rate cuts? And should we expect dollar strengthening to continue/stabilise/retreat after next week's election?

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
  • #5,013
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:30am Oct 30, 2008 9:30am
Quoting birdt
Stick with the trend/daily direction if it is clear, and trade the retests after breaks. The R:R cannot be beaten and you will have more confidence in your trades as they go with the flow. I want trend days, ones that breakout of the Asian range and break every single S/R on their way.
When I read the daily post today from BRV he lists potential SR areas that are buys and some are sells. You say to trade the SR only in the direction of the day's trend. So if for instance there is a SR area that 1.3000 on EU that was listed as a buy and the day has been trending down, I should look at the level, but for a sell rather than buy?

I'm also confused with the daily levels because I usually can see those levels (and often pick some of them out myself before reading the post), but not sure, BRV, how you decide some are buy levels and some are sell levels.
  • #5,014
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:02am Oct 30, 2008 10:02am
i reviewed through all the lines he posted in the blogs, more than 50% of the lines are failed lines, but i still don't get it why people are still inside here praising the lines???
  • #5,015
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:05am Oct 30, 2008 10:05am
the only way to trade successfully is trading breaks of sr lines not counter-trending, i may not know the background of this guy but my guess is that he may be a spy sent by brokers to corrupt ppl's mind thus leading them to the wrong path. becareful guys!
  • #5,016
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:15am Oct 30, 2008 10:15am
Quoting shadowman
the only way to trade successfully is trading breaks of sr lines not counter-trending, i may not know the background of this guy but my guess is that he may be a spy sent by brokers to corrupt ppl's mind thus leading them to the wrong path. becareful guys!
My guess is that your pusher is gonna buy a new Mercedes very soon...
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #5,017
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:20am Oct 30, 2008 10:20am
Quoting shadowman
i reviewed through all the lines he posted in the blogs, more than 50% of the lines are failed lines, but i still don't get it why people are still inside here praising the lines???

BRV has already explained that conditions change throught the day so the lines may or may not have value? He and most others do not trade all these lines a reccomemdations. They just show possible S&R and are areas to watch. You may want to add some kind of confirmation, round numbers or fibs, or some news may add or take away value.

I match my SR lines just to compare and learn..

BTE..If it is a 50% hit rate on these lines then we maybe should consider taking them. At a 40sl and 240 tp we got a big winner. just kidding..lol
  • #5,018
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:21am Oct 30, 2008 10:21am
Shadowman, you are not talking about BRV, right? He is well respected here for what he does and the insight he provides in this, his thread, and his blog. Many of us have learned a lot from him and from the many great interactions that have taken place in this thread.

Good trading to you.
  • #5,019
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:36am Oct 30, 2008 10:36am
Quoting thewizard
When I read the daily post today from BRV he lists potential SR areas that are buys and some are sells. You say to trade the SR only in the direction of the day's trend. So if for instance there is a SR area that 1.3000 on EU that was listed as a buy and the day has been trending down, I should look at the level, but for a sell rather than buy?
I certainly did not mean to confuse anyone. I'm saying stay with the flow if you don't have the confidence to trade counter-trend yet. If there is a clear daily direction and a strong trend, instead of looking for it to end, you may be better off looking for opportunities to get into the trend from support/resistance. The last few weeks have seen some really violent trends that have ripped through the areas that we might have expected to hold price up. When you go with the flow you can wait for more price action confirmation, hold on for more profits, risk more etc..

PeterCrowns sums it up beautifully:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=23

There is a lot more to it than just placing limit orders at levels. You still have to analyse what is going on and you still have to learn how to be a trader.
  • #5,020
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:53am Oct 30, 2008 10:53am
what the f*** is going on with S/R ???? does anything hold at all ??


This confirms that any technical analysis BY ITSELF is a piece of crap unless trading in 4H or bigger timeframes and having a SL more than 100...and trend is still a friend (unless it's about to end)



ohh...at least EUR/USD is holding now with some positive pips, should i bail out now at +20 pips
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