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  • #4,981
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:23am Oct 30, 2008 4:23am
I am tempted to get out of my usdcad 1.1929 trade with 100 pip profit. I have target of 1.2163 but am getting anxious. this is usually my problem. jump too soon. I will ride it out for a while longer as there is strong resistance at that level, but plain sailing under.
  • #4,982
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:40am Oct 30, 2008 4:40am
Quoting Tori
I am tempted to get out of my usdcad 1.1929 trade with 100 pip profit. I have target of 1.2163 but am getting anxious. this is usually my problem. jump too soon. I will ride it out for a while longer as there is strong resistance at that level, but plain sailing under.
Tori,

Could you explain why the target of 1.2163 ?

Thanks
  • #4,983
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:48am Oct 30, 2008 4:48am
Looking for a possible sell on GBP/CHF ar around 1.8852 if price gets there
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  • #4,984
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:53am Oct 30, 2008 4:53am
Quoting Tori
My 1.1929 buy on the so called bouce point I chose earlier, has been sitting for hours in the same place almost. has moved up a bit though. I was concerned I get in too late, but this was a little early. Does anyone have a way of handling trades that sit for so long. I find myself watching them for hours and that is not a good way to go. Still think it will be worthwhile. target 1,2163
Hi Tori,
I had 1.1900 listed as a level today (local lows on the last wave up)....it did a good job of taking to it....nice area in general though. Even if you got in at 29 you had 140 pips or so....nice one

1.2120 is the next big resistance on the move back up I had; though as usual its fading....crazy downtrend this thing has had
  • #4,985
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:54am Oct 30, 2008 4:54am
On the one hour chart there was quite a few candles hitting that area, and it broke through that line and headed down to 1.1929 which is where I took the bounce, or dead cat bounce as it turns out, and there was quite a lot of support a weak ago there also. Looked like a good target to me. however ran out of steam. still did go up 140 odd, but realistically, I was taking it against the trend so lucky as well.
  • #4,986
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:13am Oct 30, 2008 5:13am
Cheers BRV. Hope your doing alright mate What do you think about GBP/CHF that i have posted a few minutes ago? Looks a potential price pivot zone @ around 1.88525 And i see price channeling up inside 15m channel towards this area. Might be good sell, whats your opinion?
  • #4,987
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:39am Oct 30, 2008 5:39am
Quoting belekas
Cheers BRV. Hope your doing alright mate What do you think about GBP/CHF that i have posted a few minutes ago? Looks a potential price pivot zone @ around 1.88525 And i see price channeling up inside 15m channel towards this area. Might be good sell, whats your opinion?
Hey there sorry I didnt get around sooner......I actually tend to never take breakouts on diagonal t/l's, only horizontal, though occasionally I will play a bounce off of one.

The reason for this is that sell stops can easily accumulate under horizontal price points, unlike diagonal, increasing the force (and thus likelihood) of a very strong breakout. Always go for the easy ones.

Hope all is good today
  • #4,988
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:41am Oct 30, 2008 5:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hey there sorry I didnt get around sooner......I actually tend to never take breakouts on diagonal t/l's, only horizontal, though occasionally I will play a bounce off of one.

The reason for this is that sell stops can easily accumulate under horizontal price points, unlike diagonal, increasing the force (and thus likelihood) of a very strong breakout. Always go for the easy ones.

Hope all is good today
Yes. Everything is good. Woke up to see my TP on GBP/USD filled for 250 pips. Now im flat and looking at GBP/CHF. So you think this level looks significant?
  • #4,989
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:49am Oct 30, 2008 5:49am
I would like to ask advice. I am aware that different trading companies provide indicators such as S/R, pivots, ect. I notice however that these lines can vary in their placement from one entity to another. For this reason, would you consider that it is best to never actually look at anything other than your own assessment of the chart. I ask this because I know that our strategy relies on putting lines in the area that all others will be placing their lines also. I have noticed pivot points especially, seem to vary. If anyone can give me their opinion I would be grateful.I feel as if I am half way there, but still missing so much. thankyou
  • #4,990
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:18am Oct 30, 2008 6:18am
Also GBP/JPY is channeling up inside a nice channel towards previous 4hr support now possible resistance @ 165.950/166 and this area gets in confluence of the median blue line. Im definetly watching this area if price gets there and will be selling on confirmation.
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  • #4,991
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:31am Oct 30, 2008 6:31am
BRV,

In your experience have you found that certain traders just cannot trade using technical analysis? I ask, as every single trade I have made using support, resistance and pin bars has resulted in a loss.

I now feel there is absolutely no point in me even trying anymore, and I'll just have to move back to the fundamentals, large stops and days or weeks of waiting for trades to move, which I really did not enjoy, but it did increase my account size, until recently when fundamentals seemed to mean nothing.

Also, have you read the book, 'Fooled by Randomness'? If so, do you accept what Taleb says about the market being random, and if so how does that affect your view of what you're doing. I ask especially with regards to things such as pin bars, as I'm now starting to wonder if I'm really seeing them, or am I just wanting to see them?

Thanks.
  • #4,992
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:32am Oct 30, 2008 6:32am
Quoting Tori
I would like to ask advice. I am aware that different trading companies provide indicators such as S/R, pivots, ect. I notice however that these lines can vary in their placement from one entity to another. For this reason, would you consider that it is best to never actually look at anything other than your own assessment of the chart. I ask this because I know that our strategy relies on putting lines in the area that all others will be placing their lines also. I have noticed pivot points especially, seem to vary. If anyone can give me their opinion I would be grateful.I feel as if I am half way there, but still missing so much. thankyou
Tori.

The answer to your question may depend on which timeframe you are trading. If it is 5 min then there might be some difference due to different price feeds. If it is daily then most likely no difference. Having said this, most brokers start a new trading day at 5 pm USA eastern time. Some start at a different time. That would change the definition of a daily candle. I have my account with one broker and do a lot of my charting on another platform because they have more/better tools. Prices are usually the same or within a pip or two. I don't believe this should be an issue for you.
  • #4,993
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:50am Oct 30, 2008 6:50am
Quoting belekas
Also GBP/JPY is channeling up inside a nice channel towards previous 4hr support now possible resistance @ 165.950/166 and this area gets in confluence of the median blue line. Im definetly watching this area if price gets there and will be selling on confirmation.
GBP has 1.6670 in the same area.....look for confluence between the 2
  • #4,994
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:00am Oct 30, 2008 7:00am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
GBP has 1.6670 in the same area.....look for confluence between the 2
Yes i have a line at 1.6671 and theres one back from 4hr at 1.6780. You see this line buddy? Looks like GBP beying sold from the local highs and it at the bottom of the ascending 15m channel as we speak.
  • #4,995
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:06am Oct 30, 2008 7:06am
Quoting Sanook
BRV,

In your experience have you found that certain traders just cannot trade using technical analysis? I ask, as every single trade I have made using support, resistance and pin bars has resulted in a loss.

I now feel there is absolutely no point in me even trying anymore, and I'll just have to move back to the fundamentals, large stops and days or weeks of waiting for trades to move, which I really did not enjoy, but it did increase my account size, until recently when fundamentals seemed to mean nothing.

Also, have you read the book, 'Fooled by Randomness'? If so, do you accept what Taleb says about the market being random, and if so how does that affect your view of what you're doing. I ask especially with regards to things such as pin bars, as I'm now starting to wonder if I'm really seeing them, or am I just wanting to see them?

Thanks.
Hi Sanook,

It might just be a matter of experience perhaps.....

You asked about pin bars....here is my experience with them:

The main premise behind everything we do here is that these areas are obvious to traders everywhere, across the globe. Everyone is on the same page.

Daily charts, 4 hr charts, differ in closes, and are not consistent. A trader in London will see a different daily close than I will, and a trader in Tokyo will see a different close than both of us, for instance. Therefore, a pin bar to me is not a pin bar to a trader in London on these timeframes. Thats why I typically dont rely on them. Markets that trade in a local exchange work best for pin bars (spx futures, etc) because the majority of traders trading them can see the same chart....but even then not as much.

Hourly closes hold the most significance on an intraday basis. Pin bars on 1 hr charts work the best when the open and close is below a key resistance area for a sell, reverse for a buy. Market makers will "force" the close below the level to "tell the world" to sell. Sounds funny but thats just how it goes.

I always look to see where a 1 hr bar closes, above or below, a key area if its around one.

In regards to your losses around support/resistance it could be any number of factors. Whats your biggest headache with these? Just curious. I trade with them quite profitably and I know many others that do as well.

I havent read fooled by randomness but I try to see perfect order in everything I look at during the day. Charts need to make sense for me. Every major spike, jerk in price, etc, is telling you a synopsis of what can happen next around these levels. If you let me know any specifics might be able to help you out.
  • #4,996
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:19am Oct 30, 2008 7:19am
Quoting belekas
Also GBP/JPY is channeling up inside a nice channel towards previous 4hr support now possible resistance @ 165.950/166 and this area gets in confluence of the median blue line. Im definetly watching this area if price gets there and will be selling on confirmation.
Good eye belekas,
Also shows good S&R back in 2000 and 2001.
  • #4,997
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:22am Oct 30, 2008 7:22am
Quoting Sanook
BRV,

In your experience have you found that certain traders just cannot trade using technical analysis? I ask, as every single trade I have made using support, resistance and pin bars has resulted in a loss.

I now feel there is absolutely no point in me even trying anymore, and I'll just have to move back to the fundamentals, large stops and days or weeks of waiting for trades to move, which I really did not enjoy, but it did increase my account size, until recently when fundamentals seemed to mean nothing.

Also, have you read the book, 'Fooled by Randomness'? If so, do you accept what Taleb says about the market being random, and if so how does that affect your view of what you're doing. I ask especially with regards to things such as pin bars, as I'm now starting to wonder if I'm really seeing them, or am I just wanting to see them?

Thanks.
Every trade results in a loss eh? Sounds like a wonderful problem to have. You're only one epiphany away from a perfect system. Sounds to me that watching support and resistance has got you thinking every level is going to result in a reversal. Stick with the trend/daily direction if it is clear, and trade the retests after breaks. The R:R cannot be beaten and you will have more confidence in your trades as they go with the flow. I want trend days, ones that breakout of the Asian range and break every single S/R on their way.


My interpretation is that Taleb does not say the market is random, he says it is chaotic. He likens it to a random situation where people interpret positive performance as skill. I know people who always seem to win money in chance events, but does this mean that they are 'good' at lotteries?

The edge to trading support and resistance is predicting where bunches of orders are likely to be. I do not believe this is random, my knowledge of markets says it is not random, my knoweldge of the human mind says it is not random, and my observations of human psychology says it is not random. Most of all, my observations of watching the market around these levels confirm that this is not random.

It is a great book, and no doubt Taleb is a great trader that is probably killing the market now in this extreme volatility. He does not know everything though, and that is kind of the point in the book. There is a tendency amongst traders to think that 'their method' is the only method that works and any other approach is doomed to failure. You'll see it at these forums and you'll read it in books, like it is some sort of religion where only one faith can be the true faith.
  • #4,998
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:29am Oct 30, 2008 7:29am
Quoting jlmac27
Good eye belekas,
Also shows good S&R back in 2000 and 2001.
Yes indeed jlmac. Also i see USD/JPY and GBP/USD approaching resistances as well. If price gets there on GBP/JPY i personally think it should become a really profitable sell if carried out as planned.
  • #4,999
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:29am Oct 30, 2008 7:29am
Quoting birdt
Every trade results in a loss eh? Sounds like a wonderful problem to have. You're only one epiphany away from a perfect system.
haha I've thought about this. If 95% (or whatever the figure) of traders fail then all these people have to do is execute the exact opposite of what they would normally do. But I guess if it were that easy then everybody would be doing it.
  • #5,000
  • Oct 30, 2008 7:30am Oct 30, 2008 7:30am
Quoting birdt
I know people who always seem to win money in chance events, but does this mean that they are 'good' at lotteries?

The edge to trading support and resistance is predicting where bunches of orders are likely to be. I do not believe this is random, my knowledge of markets says it is not random, my knoweldge of the human mind says it is not random, and my observations of human psychology says it is not random. Most of all, my observations of watching the market around these levels confirm that this is not random.

It is a great book, and no doubt Taleb is a great trader that is probably killing the market now in this extreme volatility. He does not know everything though, and that is kind of the point in the book. There is a tendency amongst traders to think that 'their method' is the only method that works and any other approach is doomed to failure. You'll see it at these forums and you'll read it in books, like it is some sort of religion where only one faith can be the true faith.
Thanks Birdt....can always count on you for the great quotes . Well said.
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