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  • #4,961
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:42am Oct 29, 2008 11:42am
Quoting Willowgal
I made the same trade and got out with 20 pips.... it looked to be stalling and I dont think the level is going to hold.
gonna try to stick wif my TP and SL at 30 pips... headin to bed..
(on demo acc still)
  • #4,962
  • Oct 29, 2008 12:44pm Oct 29, 2008 12:44pm
Hello BRV people, I'm working on finetuning a nice stoch with alarm available online, that can give us signal when levels are reached approximately. So it is just a guide to look for s/r, nothing else.
I've found that on the 1 min charts works better than with other time frames. But I don't wont to look at the 1 min chart. Is there a way to show the 1 min chart indicator on a 15 min chart time frame?
Thanks
Max
  • #4,963
  • Edited 1:44pm Oct 29, 2008 12:44pm | Edited 1:44pm
Hi, BRV!

Up until now I never put any attention to breakout trades, but as it seems, the current market conditions seem very suitable for occasional BO trades.

I would just like to ask if you also pull the trigger as soon as the level is broken or do you wait for the price to retrace before executing the order? Or does this depend on... something?

I hope I'm not too annoying but this is something I (and I guess many others) would like to know how to master!

Thanks!
  • #4,964
  • Oct 29, 2008 5:05pm Oct 29, 2008 5:05pm
BRV, thanks so much for starting this thread. It has been a great educational tool.

Obviously it blew through these levels in your post, but now it's been bouncing the last 12 or so hours between 96.90 and 98.00 and for the last couple hours just above the 97.25 area.

Is the trade dead? I'm still new to this method so my thoughts that follow are not recommendations, just put them out there for you or the more experienced S&R Traders to evaluate... With the way price has moved the last 1/2 day or so I'm feeling the 97.25 area might be to weak to play a breakout below... maybe the 96.90 level, but it looks like the last 4 or 5 attempts to get under that failed so I'm a little gunshy. What are others thoughts?
  • #4,965
  • Oct 29, 2008 5:28pm Oct 29, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting thewizard
BRV, thanks so much for starting this thread. It has been a great educational tool.

Obviously it blew through these levels in your post, but now it's been bouncing the last 12 or so hours between 96.90 and 98.00 and for the last couple hours just above the 97.25 area.

Is the trade dead? I'm still new to this method so my thoughts that follow are not recommendations, just put them out there for you or the more experienced S&R Traders to evaluate... With the way price has moved the last 1/2 day or so I'm feeling the 97.25 area might be to weak to play a breakout below... maybe the 96.90 level, but it looks like the last 4 or 5 attempts to get under that failed so I'm a little gunshy. What are others thoughts?
Hi thewizard,

I'm at work so I'm just giving some brief thoughts and may come back to this when I get a chance.

If you look on the H1 chart, you'll notice that last week we had a huge selloff in UJ, before a long consolidation (relatively speaking), and then a large breakout buy on the 28th, which happened during the 2nd Nikkei session as Asian stocks rebounded off lows from the 1st session.

I would be looking for a similar set up here, wait to see what happens in Asian equities (US were sort of wishy-washy, up late in the day after the Fed announcement and then a very fast reversal in the closing minutes). My guess is we're going to see a breakout selloff, I've been hearing that there's still quite a bit of deleveraging which needs to happen, and the prior move was perhaps a bit overdone, with almost 600 points from the breakout to the top. In this environment who knows though, I certainly won't base a trade on rumours or guesswork. If Asian equities don't do well, it'd be a nice confirmation and I'd love to sell a breakout.
  • #4,966
  • Oct 29, 2008 7:45pm Oct 29, 2008 7:45pm
[quote=pippip;I'm also sticking to just one pair (eur/usd) when it comes to my own trading. It means I can focus more and I have to be more disciplined and more patient (key attributes) in order to wait for the right trades.

I think you might have a good idea here for us beginners.I have heard so much about sticking to one pair,learn how it moves.I think I might start this in my trading.I mean how can it hurt?Tell me you can't make money off one pair.Good thinking pip!Good trading to you my friend!
  • #4,967
  • Oct 29, 2008 7:55pm Oct 29, 2008 7:55pm
Heck, I only trade the EURUSD and USDJPY, and I'm doing fine. Definitely makes things a lot more tolerable if you are trying to increase your confidence and accuracy, although obviously trading more pairs gives you more opportunities.
  • #4,968
  • Oct 29, 2008 8:11pm Oct 29, 2008 8:11pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Anyone watching the 1.2000 area on the Loonie?...

For:
+ 1.2000 round number
+ Two Fib levels of confluence
+ Strong previous resistance area

Against:
- Perhaps some fundamental issues that I'm not picking up on (an area I am still very weak at)

Thoughts?


Magnus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC_1_1.GIF Size: 13 KB
  • #4,969
  • Oct 29, 2008 9:30pm Oct 29, 2008 9:30pm
could it be a breakout below for the below chart?

tested the sr quite a number of times and i hav NO idea how many times it wud test it before a BO or even turn around????

comments pls........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc_bo.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #4,970
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:34pm Oct 29, 2008 11:34pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Yuppie
Anyone watching the 1.2000 area on the Loonie?...

For:
+ 1.2000 round number
+ Two Fib levels of confluence
+ Strong previous resistance area

Against:
- Perhaps some fundamental issues that I'm not picking up on (an area I am still very weak at)

Thoughts?


Magnus

Consider that one disproved...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC_1_2.GIF Size: 7 KB
  • #4,971
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:41pm Oct 29, 2008 11:41pm
Quoting thewizard
BRV, thanks so much for starting this thread. It has been a great educational tool.

Obviously it blew through these levels in your post, but now it's been bouncing the last 12 or so hours between 96.90 and 98.00 and for the last couple hours just above the 97.25 area.

Is the trade dead? I'm still new to this method so my thoughts that follow are not recommendations, just put them out there for you or the more experienced S&R Traders to evaluate... With the way price has moved the last 1/2 day or so I'm feeling the 97.25 area might be to weak to play a breakout below... maybe the 96.90 level, but it looks like the last 4 or 5 attempts to get under that failed so I'm a little gunshy. What are others thoughts?
Hi, you're welcome and thanks. Yeah this trade died a long time ago I just havent updated yet but doing it now....final count on it was something like +170 pips or so I think.

There's a blurb below the trades; theyre tracked by whenever -40 pips or +250 pips gets hit, whichever first.
  • #4,972
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:51pm Oct 29, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting daytrade5
Can one of the more experienced/successful Traders with this method explain their mechanics of the entries. I've gone through the blog and perhaps I have a mental block relkative to the word \"bounce\" or the appropriate price action that gives clues as to whether a S/R level is likely to hold or if I should stand aside. I find that I am entering too early at times or missing trades because of waiting too late. I know that placing \"blind\" limit orders is not the answer. I have become a student of this thread and the blog. I am absolutely confident about my ability to identify S/R levels. I use the higher timeframes by the book. I typically use a 5min chart to pinpoint my entries. This is not enough because even knowing these levels I am butchering trades. I can't believe that I am the only one struggling with this. Any insights would be greatly appreciated!!!

Ive been getting a lot of questions about this stuff lately, and I'm going to try to help clear it up in the next day or two with a bigger post.

I think it comes to understanding when things are parabolic (too stretched out) or not, and when its better to fade or play a breakout.

This is the hardest part anyone is ever going to have to deal with, when things are ready, so Im going to clear it up.....just so you know its on the radar.
  • #4,973
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:51pm Oct 29, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting sirmais
easy 150 pips on AUDUSD this morning..
That is one helluva beautiful trade right there
  • #4,974
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:54pm Oct 29, 2008 11:54pm
Quoting Willowgal
Looking to go long at 1.1375
Interest rate announcement today rocked the dollar. Who ever thought of the USD carry trade?

Fades are NOT a good idea on interest rate actions/speculation. Breakouts, now we're talking. In any normal environment though this would have been worth the shot.
  • #4,975
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:58pm Oct 29, 2008 11:58pm
Quoting birdt
When the resistance broke I was looking for any excuse to get in to be honest, but wanted to risk as little as possible. My breakout plan was either to enter long on the break of the high left following a pullback (this keeps you out of false breakouts) OR, enter a long on a pullback to retest the resistance turned support. In this situation we saw price pull back right back to touch the level and then when the next candle broke the high of the previous one, I was in and only risking 30 pips (stop below the bottom of that candle, where my plan would have broken down and I wanted to be out). There was still a good chance I was going to get stopped out on this but the R:R on it was too good to turn down, and I still took it out way earlier than I could have. If you wanted to increase the probability of the trade being successful you could have waited for the close of the candle to be higher than the last one, but you sacrifice some R:R when doing this.

Here's a chart of the different methods that I use for trading breakouts from points of congestion or significant time periods. BRV probably does something completely different so I hope I am not confusing anyone, but there are many ways to skin a cat (no animals were harmed in the making of this chart).

PS., jones, there were some great opportunities on S and R today. Keep in mind that they do not always have to be rejected to provide opportunities to profit. All the lines on this chart were drawn before any of the candles on the page were created yet we see all of them were respected to some extent and all could have been useful for entering trades or placing TPs.
There we go....this is how you do it. Inch by inch, just follow what price tells you to do. The signals are always there you just have to know how to decipher them and trade them.

These breakouts are red flags to go long. Everybody is watching them and they know well what a violation insinuates.

Awesome job birdt.
  • #4,976
  • Oct 29, 2008 11:59pm Oct 29, 2008 11:59pm
Hi everyone. My name is Tori and I have been following this thread for a long time. I find it the best strategy I have seen and am following guidelines consistently. I tend to do really well in patches, then lose my patience, get over excited or allow emotion to take over and cause myself problems. That is the reason I am wanting to get involved in this blog. To help me find discipline. The strategy is brilliant, my discipline isnt as yet. I would like to ask about the current turmoil and the S/R lines. I have found that on many days they are cut like butter and presume this is manipulation, and think markets. Do you check to see if lines are holding across several charts before trading confidently, and if they appear weak, do you just call it a bad day and walk away. How do you determine the stability of the market. Thankyou for such an informative discussion area.
  • #4,977
  • Oct 30, 2008 12:01am Oct 30, 2008 12:01am
Quoting Willowgal
I went for the GBPJPY to break through

+250 pips so far

Hit twice, good resistance, breakout comes, easy trade, easy money. Great job!
  • #4,978
  • Oct 30, 2008 12:30am Oct 30, 2008 12:30am
I am looking at 1.1929 as a possible bounce point on usdcad. it has consistent support. My problem is waiting too long to take the trade. we will see .
  • #4,979
  • Oct 30, 2008 3:38am Oct 30, 2008 3:38am
My 1.1929 buy on the so called bouce point I chose earlier, has been sitting for hours in the same place almost. has moved up a bit though. I was concerned I get in too late, but this was a little early. Does anyone have a way of handling trades that sit for so long. I find myself watching them for hours and that is not a good way to go. Still think it will be worthwhile. target 1,2163
  • #4,980
  • Oct 30, 2008 3:56am Oct 30, 2008 3:56am
If it get back up there this looks a good trade around 1.2120 - 1.2130
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad short order.gif Size: 16 KB
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