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No Brainer Trades

  • #4,881
  • Oct 28, 2008 10:38am Oct 28, 2008 10:38am
One thing I am having some trouble with as I practice is my patience. I am a former futures scalper, the indicies. I am looking at the TF 15, 30, 60 min and beond for levels but sometimes I am ancy and think I am missing out on a trade because I am waiting for a setup. Which in reality is what I know to be best, becuase I have traded lots of crap and my lack of patience and feeling of missing out has caused me to take some nice losers, and break my rules of doubling down and moving stops. Not in FX but in my other trading. I have turned to fx, becuase I enjoy it and I want somethng where I can concentrate and not trade every wiggle, but I just have to work on it.
Any thoughts
  • #4,882
  • Oct 28, 2008 10:41am Oct 28, 2008 10:41am
Quoting ranger
One thing I am having some trouble with as I practice is my patience. I am a former futures scalper, the indicies. I am looking at the TF 15, 30, 60 min and beond for levels but sometimes I am ancy and think I am missing out on a trade because I am waiting for a setup. Which in reality is what I know to be best, becuase I have traded lots of crap and my lack of patience and feeling of missing out has caused me to take some nice losers, and break my rules of doubling down and moving stops. Not in FX but in my other trading. I have turned to fx, becuase I enjoy it and I want somethng where I can concentrate and not trade every wiggle, but I just have to work on it.
Any thoughts
There are some wonderfull books, not many, a few actually that are "must" read ones. Its a long road but sooner or later we all gonna make it. Just dont swap methods, keep it simple and practise. And remmember never ever give up, dont matter what...and one day we be all partying @ our own villas on da seashore
  • #4,883
  • Oct 28, 2008 10:45am Oct 28, 2008 10:45am
Ranger.....I had the same problem for awhile comming over from the futures market as a scalper. I made a simple change that helped me tremendeously with my patience. I set price alerts just before key areas of support and resistance, turn up my speakers, and simply walk away from my computer. I found that if I sat in front of the screen long enough, the charts would convince me to take a trade just to feel like I was doing something. Not sure if that will help your or not but it works wonders for me.
"Amat Victoria Curam" Victory Loves Preparation
  • #4,884
  • Oct 28, 2008 10:53am Oct 28, 2008 10:53am
Quoting daytrade5
Ranger.....I had the same problem for awhile comming over from the futures market as a scalper. I made a simple change that helped me tremendeously with my patience. I set price alerts just before key areas of support and resistance, turn up my speakers, and simply walk away from my computer. I found that if I sat in front of the screen long enough, the charts would convince me to take a trade just to feel like I was doing something. Not sure if that will help your or not but it works wonders for me.
VERY TRUE buddy!
Time is king!
  • #4,885
  • Oct 28, 2008 11:15am Oct 28, 2008 11:15am
Thanks Belekas and Daytrade5. I know that will work, thats what happens is I am here trading at home all day long, and waiting for hours, I simply take a trade just becuase I am bored and the charts wiggled. I know from expierence that just taking a few good setups a day greatly makes your profit go up and risk and risk of loss go down. But I need to live it! Instead of 100's of trades a day
  • #4,886
  • Oct 28, 2008 12:22pm Oct 28, 2008 12:22pm
This is not a trade recommendation it is after the fact but I think it might help me and other newbs with the earning process. I have enclosed a 60 min chart of the yen. The pop was about starting at 12 noon eastern time. I had this chart up from looking over this thread early this morning and saw BRV was looking for a trade. I saw where it bounced off a nice leel to short earlier. Now it has came up to the level again, so I was looking for a short,( now I am on the demo not live). I didn do anything in the demo, becuase I came in with a short bias and I know bias's arent good, but still was thinking short and then it popped. I was probably thinink short becuase the 12noon bar was almost at the line and then the next bar came to the line but then started to come down fora little. So in my head I was thinking shrt even though the bar hasnt closed yet. But obvisouly I was wrong it went up about 50 pips as it broke. I am trying to learn what confirmation to look for sometimes on the longer time frames I am afriad if I wait for confirmation of the next bar it might drop a ton and render the trade to late to get in for me. So now I look back and say it bounced off it and then as soon as it broke thru it I should have bought, not sure though. Like I said I am just posting this for learning expeierence for everyone who is not upto speed on this yet. Thanks.
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  • #4,887
  • Oct 28, 2008 12:47pm Oct 28, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting ranger
This is not a trade recommendation it is after the fact but I think it might help me and other newbs with the earning process. I have enclosed a 60 min chart of the yen. The pop was about starting at 12 noon eastern time. I had this chart up from looking over this thread early this morning and saw BRV was looking for a trade. I saw where it bounced off a nice leel to short earlier. Now it has came up to the level again, so I was looking for a short,( now I am on the demo not live). I didn do anything in the demo, becuase I came in with a short bias and I know bias's arent good, but still was thinking short and then it popped. I was probably thinink short becuase the 12noon bar was almost at the line and then the next bar came to the line but then started to come down fora little. So in my head I was thinking shrt even though the bar hasnt closed yet. But obvisouly I was wrong it went up about 50 pips as it broke. I am trying to learn what confirmation to look for sometimes on the longer time frames I am afriad if I wait for confirmation of the next bar it might drop a ton and render the trade to late to get in for me. So now I look back and say it bounced off it and then as soon as it broke thru it I should have bought, not sure though. Like I said I am just posting this for learning expeierence for everyone who is not upto speed on this yet. Thanks.
Hi ranger,

My obsevation would be that the initial bounce was not particularly 'impulsive' sugesting no massive imbalance of sellers over buyers at that level. I must stress that I am fairly new to trading also, but the weakish 'bounce' would have me wondering if the level will actually hold at all next time.

I am sure others can explain this better .....
  • #4,888
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:00pm Oct 28, 2008 1:00pm
Quoting smittens4212
Bucket on UJ around 94.80 on 15m chart

Interesting insight about Gann and price levels being tested/broken. I have noticed that the 3rd or 4th retest of a line has a tendency to be the one that breaks it, but I've also seen lines be tested many more times than that without breaking it. When I first started demo trading, breakouts were all I traded, with no fundamental bias. Sufficed to say I didn't do too well, they were inconsistent at best on a technical basis, but now that I trade with a fundamental idea at hand, they're ten times more accurate and effective.
Hi Smittens!

May I ask you how do you trade breakouts?

As I understand, some put on a order as soon as the price breaks out of a "channel" or "congestion" zone (something like 5 pips later) -- or even a previous low or high for that matter -- and some like to see the "breaking" and then do the waiting for the price come back to the previous support level (in a downtrend), which would now act as a resistance level.

Thanks and good trading!
  • #4,889
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:02pm Oct 28, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting Willowgal
Hi ranger,

My obsevation would be that the initial bounce was not particularly 'impulsive' sugesting no massive imbalance of sellers over buyers at that level. I must stress that I am fairly new to trading also, but the weakish 'bounce' would have me wondering if the level will actually hold at all next time.

I am sure others can explain this better .....
I think this is a pretty good explanation, Willowgal. This is 'no brainer' basics-- when a level has been recently tested, the less likely it is to hold, especially if, like you said, there was no really 'impulsive' move at the level.

Edit: Also, at the time of that trade, US equities were in the process of moving up quite strongly.
  • #4,890
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:02pm Oct 28, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting daytrade5
Ranger.....I had the same problem for awhile comming over from the futures market as a scalper. I made a simple change that helped me tremendeously with my patience. I set price alerts just before key areas of support and resistance, turn up my speakers, and simply walk away from my computer. I found that if I sat in front of the screen long enough, the charts would convince me to take a trade just to feel like I was doing something. Not sure if that will help your or not but it works wonders for me.
Same here!!! I put the volume on MAX and go away.
  • #4,891
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:24pm Oct 28, 2008 1:24pm
In fact here is my favorite alert sound. I love it because it drives my wife nuts. I typically set my alerts 10pips or so before key support and resistance, turn the speakers up and walk away.
"Amat Victoria Curam" Victory Loves Preparation
  • #4,892
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:28pm Oct 28, 2008 1:28pm
sorry...would help if I remembered to upload the file.
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File Type: zip zoombonus.zip   454 KB | 693 downloads
"Amat Victoria Curam" Victory Loves Preparation
  • #4,893
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:29pm Oct 28, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting hendrix
Hi Smittens!

May I ask you how do you trade breakouts?

As I understand, some put on a order as soon as the price breaks out of a \"channel\" or \"congestion\" zone (something like 5 pips later) -- or even a previous low or high for that matter -- and some like to see the \"breaking\" and then do the waiting for the price come back to the previous support level (in a downtrend), which would now act as a resistance level.

Thanks and good trading!
Hi hendrix,

On a trade like last night on the UJ, there was a very well-established trendline and range that it had been trading in, and was ready to blow. I used a market order and entered the trade approximately 15 pips outside the line, because I wanted to definitively confirm that we were moving strongly (basically I watched price action and got in when I felt confident the breakout was the real thing, this was also confirmed by the Nikkei making strong gains at the time UJ was breaking out). My stop was 40 pips, giving me good breathing room so that the trade could go back to re-test the trendline and I didn't have to worry about being stopped out. This trade never did retest the trendline.

I'm usually looking for fast, definitive action on a breakout, so I'm not looking for a retest too often. I think you'd miss too many worthy breakouts if you looked for retests, since that kind of goes against the principal behind a breakout. However, after the initial action is over, I definitely go back to basic S&R concepts, and if the S&R gets approached again, I'd be looking to fade it unless the fundamentals are really against it.

Probably doesn't help, I haven't thought out the strategy to my breakouts too much-- they're usually impulsive moves that are supported by a drastic fundamental move, e.g. news or a strong move in whatever market the pair you're looking at is heavily correlated to (oil, gold, equities, etc.). They work really well in volatile and news-heavy environments like the one we have now, mainly because they're occuring so often. When the markets are a bit more tame, they are much less abundent and successful.
  • #4,894
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:29pm Oct 28, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting Wonko
Honestly: Who knows? I would play for bounces, but until now I don't see a rule when levels get stronger the more they are touched, or when they get weaker. So I will prepare for both directions with tight stops. Other opinions?
I went for the GBPJPY to break through

+250 pips so far
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  • #4,895
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:33pm Oct 28, 2008 1:33pm
Nice trade, Willowgal.

A perfect illustration of breakouts and what I was just saying-- an impulsive move supported by fundamentals. Look at the DOW right now: +340



Woops, gotta get back to work before I get yelled at!
  • #4,896
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:40pm Oct 28, 2008 1:40pm
About as good an example of the the break and retest 'kiss of death' as I have seen, compounded with the the three tests and a break Gann principle that we spoke on earlier.

You may see a level getting rejected more than three times, it is not absolute - but not often. The orders at the level get eaten up, pressure builds, and the more energy that is bottled up the more stop orders are placed on either side of the range so when it does break out you get a fast impulsive move.

In this situation when it broke it came back and retested the resistance turned support level. Easy pips, wish they all came gift wrapped like that.
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  • #4,897
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:42pm Oct 28, 2008 1:42pm
Looks like a nice level to fade if it gets up there. Previous lows, fibonacci significance. Level also had some significance when it passed in on the way up in 2000. Remember, GBPJPY is very volatile, use smaller size and a little larger stop loss, psychological resistance 155.00 is right there too. If it holds, should be a nice 100-200 pip bounce.

btw, nice breakout trade Willow.

P.S. I'd be really careful if the level hits after the equity markets close in an hour during low liquidity time. We all know what can happen then!
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  • #4,898
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:55pm Oct 28, 2008 1:55pm
BRV mentioned the importance of watching out for double zeros on options expiration days.

Here's some further info on that subject kindly provided by Daytrading (http://www.forexfactory.com/member.php?u=49186):

It pays to print off an "options expirations calendar", which you can easily google it. (one is under optionseducation.org)
When the calendar shows expiry dates, the double-zeros become more important since on that day, the pushing and pulling happens of those who might want to protect their options.
Whether the strike rates will get hit is not as important for us as outright fx traders, as the knowledge of increasing volatility around those numbers.
The difference to "normal" days is the question of trend. If there is a trend which is approaching a 00, its quite likely to cut through it, possibly without looking back (depending how early in the day this happens).
On ranging days, often a bounce off the 00 happens from the approaching side. (e.g. in rising market, price will drop back after hitting 00 for the first time and vice versa).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,899
  • Oct 28, 2008 1:55pm Oct 28, 2008 1:55pm
Hi, guys! My usd/cad enter. Forget to set S/L on Resistance line =) wait for second touch
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  • #4,900
  • Oct 28, 2008 2:00pm Oct 28, 2008 2:00pm
Take partial profit 154.05 (+45 pips) move stop to breakeven.
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