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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,441
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:57pm Feb 27, 2007 9:57pm
I am looking at the three pairs I usually trade: Euro, GBP and the US/CAD.

On the GBP and the CAD I do not see any MACD pattern for an entry. On the EURO I see a rounded top, but it is against the trend. The target profit is very close and the s/l will be higher. So I will let it pass.

Conclusion: I will wait until the 2:00 AM candle. Unless someone here is seeing something different that I have missed.

If so, please let me know.
  • #1,442
  • Feb 27, 2007 10:07pm Feb 27, 2007 10:07pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The 1 Hour Strategy that Support the 4 Hour MACD
Phillip,
Thanks for the 1-Hr. Support MACD strategy.

1. Do we use ONLY the Trend Continuation (TC) signal on 1- Hr. chart to support ONLY the TC signal on 4-Hr. chart.
OR,
2. Do we use ONLY the TC signal on 1-Hr chart to support any signal on 4-Hr. chart.
OR,
3. Do we use TC signal on 1-Hr. chart to support all types of signals on 4-Hr. Chart.
OR,
4.Do we use any signal on 1-Hr. chart to support only TC signal on 4-Hr. chart.

I only hope I am not confusing the issue.
Thanks for your help.
-Chandra
  • #1,443
  • Feb 27, 2007 10:09pm Feb 27, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting DireXiv
3:50 gmt

To me it looks like if it will pullback to the 21 ema (which looks like it might pullback anyway with RT and upper TL hit, and 89 hit), and test it again, by the rules, it will then continue uptrend. But what do I know??!?!?!?

I would love to get something else out of this pair. Comments from anyone else?
Good Call!!
Refering back to Phill's 1hr, if price moves through 89, it tends to come back to the 21. I will be watching that one.
Thanks DireXiv.
  • #1,444
  • Edited 10:31pm Feb 27, 2007 10:19pm | Edited 10:31pm
Hi DireXiv,

I am with you on the cad trade. My analysis is as follows:

Sell 1.6669
S/L: 1.6699
BE: 1.6647
Target 1: 1.6635

Reasons: Doji and MACD round top
Price coming out of o/s on hourly (stochastics)
4 hour strategy rule of price retesting 21 MA


concerned about price sitting on hourly upward tl on hourly and at 8 MA.
Also, first trade on USDCAD, so not familiar w/price action. Keep stop tight
  • #1,445
  • Feb 27, 2007 10:25pm Feb 27, 2007 10:25pm
Quoting supaq
Anyone long for Usd/jpy looks like it bounced off the 118.00
entry at 118.50
SL below 118.00
TP 119.60
First TP 119.00

Price: 118.52
S/L 118.30
T/P 118.89 (8 moving average) 1st profit
I am not going long to the 21 although it looks enticing.
Attached Image
  • #1,446
  • Feb 27, 2007 10:29pm Feb 27, 2007 10:29pm
Quoting supaq
Anyone long for Usd/jpy looks like it bounced off the 118.00
entry at 118.50
SL below 118.00
TP 119.60
First TP 119.00


I was thinking the same thing. Look at post #1437 from Direxiv.
  • #1,447
  • Feb 27, 2007 10:44pm Feb 27, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting 5forMe
I was thinking the same thing. Look at post #1437 from Direxiv.
I am adding US/JP to my portfolio and my analysis is in the same line.
I am going long at 118.47
t/p @ 119.10 (just under a horizontal TL.
s/l at 118.00 (the low of the previous candle)

In my opinion this is a textbook round bottom.
  • #1,448
  • Feb 28, 2007 12:15am Feb 28, 2007 12:15am
what happened with us/jp got stopped out. SL 117.96
thinking should the stop have been 117.42
  • #1,449
  • Feb 28, 2007 12:19am Feb 28, 2007 12:19am
From what I am learning the MACD is only part of the storey,price action and where it is in relation to support and resistance and the moving averages and their pullbacks etc. I think there has been lots of really good info given lately, we need to re read it many times until we know it well.
  • #1,450
  • Edited 3:35am Feb 28, 2007 3:16am | Edited 3:35am
hey pips,

i'm not trading it, cause its sitting right on 89 and not far from 365 which could get in way.... if it does go back to 21ema and shows long after that.... we'll know it's a great signal. I was just trying to look ahead and see if I have a full grasp on the movements

Looks good so far!

Quoting pips4uandme
Hi DireXiv,

I am with you on the cad trade. My analysis is as follows:

Sell 1.6669
S/L: 1.6699
BE: 1.6647
Target 1: 1.6635

Reasons: Doji and MACD round top
Price coming out of o/s on hourly (stochastics)
4 hour strategy rule of price retesting 21 MA


concerned about price sitting on hourly upward tl on hourly and at 8 MA.
Also, first trade on USDCAD, so not familiar w/price action. Keep stop tight
you are exactly right. the macd will show many moves... after that it is our job to filter which ones are the best. r:r or money management is the best filter for me. if you study phillip's system fully there are several rules you'll need to really wrap your head around that will help you reallly "see" what's happening. , you'lll start to get a feeling for it. it' s a lot of info, but good info

Quoting oztrader
From what I am learning the MACD is only part of the storey,price action and where it is in relation to support and resistance and the moving averages and their pullbacks etc. I think there has been lots of really good info given lately, we need to re read it many times until we know it well.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,451
  • Feb 28, 2007 3:33am Feb 28, 2007 3:33am
Hi DireXiv & all,

Yeah, still keeping my fingers crossed on cad trade. So excited to try a new pair (think I can now manage 4, hehe)...will see how it goes (very choppy market all around tonight). Had been waiting for a sell signal, just to jump on board and try something new (egads). Did notice the 365 in the way...that's where I plan on moving the trade to BE.

Anybody catch the GBP short? I saw the signal at the close of the 8:00 GMT candle...but couldn't get involved thanks to my commitment with cad! Waiting for a buy signal to come in around the 1.9490 area (that would be such a happy time ).

Nice job to all who took Eur contra trade at 1.3225!

Hey, I'm up 6 pips now....how'd that happen???
  • #1,452
  • Edited 6:01am Feb 28, 2007 5:54am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,
Thanks for the 1-Hr. Support MACD strategy.

1. Do we use ONLY the Trend Continuation (TC) signal on 1- Hr. chart to support ONLY the TC signal on 4-Hr. chart.
OR,
2. Do we use ONLY the TC signal on 1-Hr chart to support any signal on 4-Hr. chart.
OR,
3. Do we use TC signal on 1-Hr. chart to support all types of signals on 4-Hr. Chart.
OR,
4.Do we use any signal on 1-Hr. chart to support only TC signal on 4-Hr. chart.

I only hope I am not confusing the issue.
Thanks for your help.
-Chandra
I'd like to add to Chandra's questions:

I have tried to use the 1 hr. system to improve my timing entering a trade. But I have found that in the few trades that i have tried to do this the signals are conflicting.
For example, US/CAD at the 6:00 AM candle (EST). the 4 hrs is signalling a possible Round Top (short signal), but the 1hr chart is showing a TC long signal.
How should i interpret this? 1) Hold my trade until both time frames show me the same trend, without conflict (both say "go long" or "go short")? 2)Even if the 1hr signal turns into a short one, it will be a counter trend in this time frame (above 89 MA), but with the trend in the 4 hr (shall I expect a short trip to the south, therefore using a conservative limit?) 3) Disregard the 1 hr signal and go for it?

I guess I already have an answer to my question in this particular case. I was talking about a Roun Top that was just forming and could turn into anything at this stage (it could be a TC). So, I should not even be considering getting into this trade, since this 6:00AM candle woyld be the 1st one and I should wait until the 10:00 AM candle for entering once the trend has been indicated with the 6:00 AM (am I being clear here, or messing up everything?).

But Phillip, my question regarding conflicting signals in the two time frames remain: when in conflict shall we move to the sidelines?
  • #1,453
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:11am Feb 28, 2007 7:11am
Last night:

This was a nice bounce off the trendline. Went to zzz and woke up with 35 pips to the plus side. Lot's of news out this morning, be careful with the USD pairs. The GBPUSD looks wacky right now, price is right at 3 of the MA's and the spike in price for this bar is loonnnnnng. With the news coming out, I'll wait until the afternoon before I do anything with the majors...
Attached Image
  • #1,454
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:24am Feb 28, 2007 7:24am
I took the short on the downturn of the MACD. I didn't take the long on the bounce off the trendline. Needed to clarify that...
  • #1,455
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:29am Feb 28, 2007 7:29am
This will be only post today (this may make some of you happy )... wicked busy at work. But I must commend Phillip for showing me/us the market rythm examples. I have been using them and WOW.... they have paid off. For those of you that didn't really go over them, they were the pdf's with the grid like strucutures shown to map out targets when you don't have the ma's in place in certain territories... However, they seem to coincide very nicely with using the ma's and trend lines and provide great confirmation of trends and ending of trends.

Study them, try it out and it may be one more step to more fully understanding the market movements (it was just another step in understanding for me... they keep coming). It has vastly helped me out.

I used them for get in earlier on the gbp/usd and eur/usd this morning and up big pips.... good luck today everyone.

Thanks Phillip for all this!!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,456
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:42am Feb 28, 2007 7:42am
When there is conflict between the 1hour and 4hour then the 4 hour is remains the main one. The 1hour must support the direction of the 4hour.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 1Hour Strategy 1.zip   744 KB | 6,727 downloads
  • #1,457
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:49am Feb 28, 2007 7:49am
Quoting Palmer
I took the short on the downturn of the MACD. I didn't take the long on the bounce off the trendline. Needed to clarify that...
On the EurUsd the short was countertrend and only to the 21EMA.(20-25 pips). The bounce off the 21EMA and trendline did not give a MACD signal yet on my chart.
The 1hour gave a bounce of the 89SMA and not the 21EMA so wait for the 4hour MACD to give signal.
  • #1,458
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:02am Feb 28, 2007 8:02am
Roger that: I don't have the MACD 4hr signal either. I'm sitting out until this afternoon to let things 'settle' from yesterday...
  • #1,459
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:45am Feb 28, 2007 9:45am
The short trade taken overnight was stopped out for a 30 pip loss.

Shorting Cad was one of the worst trades I have taken and managed. Reasons are:

1. I had never traded the pair and did not know how it moved.
2. I hadn't taken the time to backtest the pair before trading it live
3. My planning a preperation was poor. I took the trade even though I was concerned of a trendline break and ignored proximity of price to significant MA's.
4. Realized that my stop was in a horrible location (after entry) and would probably be hit, raising stop would have made the r:r completely unacceptable.
5. I could have exited this trade a couple of times at breakeven or with a small profit. I almost closed it right before USD GDP.
6. After the trade, when reassessing the charts, price had bounced off the 21 EMA 2ce and continued upwards...a strong upward move was in play. The trade should have been closed.

Thank goodness I didn't risk more than 2% of my account on this trade. Moral of the story: Don't trade unfamiliar pairs without doing proper planning ahead of time! (and don't overlook huge details like break of important trendline (what a silly silly move!)

Trade results:
Wins: 6 (+252 pips)
Losses: 1 (- 30 pips)

Total pips for Feb (15 days): +222

  • #1,460
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:55am Feb 28, 2007 9:55am
Quoting pips4uandme
The short trade taken overnight was stopped out for a 30 pip loss.

Shorting Cad was one of the worst trades I have taken and managed. Reasons are:

1. I had never traded the pair and did not know how it moved.
2. I hadn't taken the time to backtest the pair before trading it live
3. My planning a preperation was poor. I took the trade even though I was concerned of a trendline break and ignored proximity of price to significant MA's.
4. Realized that my stop was in a horrible location (after entry) and would probably be hit, raising stop would have made the r:r completely unacceptable.
5. I could have exited this trade a couple of times at breakeven or with a small profit. I almost closed it right before USD GDP.
6. After the trade, when reassessing the charts, price had bounced off the 21 EMA 2ce and continued upwards...a strong upward move was in play. The trade should have been closed.

Thank goodness I didn't risk more than 2% of my account on this trade. Moral of the story: Don't trade unfamiliar pairs without doing proper planning ahead of time! (and don't overlook huge details like break of important trendline (what a silly silly move!)

Trade results:
Wins: 6 (+252 pips)
Losses: 1 (- 30 pips)

Total pips for Feb (15 days): +222

dont feel bad,u have already done a good job,222 pips in the pocket! your experience is a valuable lesson for me to learn,keep them coming man!
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