EOD trading system

Not true. Modeling quality matters all of the time, especially when trying to get accurate profit projections.

I take them Friday evening as close to 9pm as possible

cheers

Paulus

Hi Dezil

Well done on the indicator. I wish I knew how to program this stuff as so useful, but I wouldn't even know where to start!!!.

Anyway, is it possible to also add the distance in pips of the last swing high/low when the signal bar is identified?

This information would save a lot of working out as you would have the ATR in pips indicator giving you the TP target and then this would give you your SL amount.

Is this possible to create?

Law

Hi Paulus

How are you determining if the stochastic is properly turned up/down for entry. Is it purely an eyeball on the chart from experience, or is there a value that you can add to the rules?

As sometimes it is sort of in between and could be interpreted either way...

MM questions
Also, if you are taking all entries as long as its not over your max risk of 5% - what is your win ratio since you have started trading the system?

And what is your average win % - In other words when you hit your TP what % are you winning on average? 2%, 5%, more with TS stratgey?

You are obviosuly making money with this system which is great, I am just trying to work out over time if the system will continue to make money or if the risk is far greater than your average TP % and will even out over time or perhaps even give you a drawdown?

It would be really useful if you could share your experience with your system and go through these stats so we can all realise its potential because as you know the MM is the holly grail to any system.

Many thx

Law

Guys

Im interested in finding out WHY you want to ask Paulus all these questions (after he has repeatedly told everyone he is busy with personal issues). Hows about you working out some stuff by yourself - he has given you a rod, line and bait to fish with !!

Hi

Thanks Pervaz yes it is difficult at the moment I have to devote time to my wife and family or I lose them its as simple as that.

I will try and answer questions but my aim is to post a system that people can use ....use bits of ...or just nod at

Nothing here is new its all been poached from some where else we all do the same a bit here a bit there.

very very rarely is a system devised that hasnt been thought of before.Most systems out there lose and the ones that win are often dropped as useless when the user gets a few losing trades they close down and search for another 'winning' system.

There are loads of systems on these boards that may lose at the moment but with work and good money management they could end up winners but people don't often have the stamina to pursue it.

Look at the hypothetical returns chart below start using the system in the circled area and you would prob stop using it .. I for one do not like back testing I like to use a system on demo then live making changes I see to make it profitable as I go..a good system is often binned when the back test results are shown where as prob in reality if traded demo for 3months the prob could be solved quite easily

This system made me 6000 pips I stopped because I too was greedy and wanted to trade intra day to combine the 2 I devised various systems and traded them and then my world collapsed albeit my own fault and I run out of momentum

But Im back again trying to do all things familiar to get my life going again.

Paulus

Law

for a short all Im after is the stoch to be less than what it was the bar before and for a long all Im after is the stoch to be more than it was the bar before and I dont care how small...

if the stoch for a long measure 48.90 and on the trigger bar measures 49 then its ticked up and its a signal

I have a list of states from my old thread when I was trading the system before here they are on the various swaps

here is the link http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=61554&page=4

But here are some stats from the placement of the 1st trade

Number of signal = 34
Wins = 25
Losers = 9
Strike rate = 75%
Points gained = 4,613
Points lost = 753


And the link to some more http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=61554&page=5

A trader friend put this together for me and doesn't cover the latest winning pips


Hi Paul,
I found your weblog and did some number type crunching overnight. Your figures are truly amazing.
I was looking at strike rates etc. On the amount of data shown it would appear that your system applies itself very well to most Forex instruments with the exception of the bottom 3 which have strike rates of 0%, 33% & 33% respectively.
If you were looking to hone your system there are 3 instruments where you have 100% strike rate and another where you are at 85% and another at 83%.
Cheers
M

Forex Traded Profit / Loss Number of pips Totals % wins

AUDUSD profit 317

AUDUSD profit 94

AUDUSD profit 135

AUDUSD profit 94

AUDUSD loss -87

AUDUSD loss -84

AUDUSD loss -33

AUDUSD loss -55

381 50.0%




EURAUD loss -38

-38 0.0%




EURCHF profit 75

EURCHF profit 82

EURCHF profit 158

EURCHF loss -43

EURCHF profit 59

EURCHF profit 51

EURCHF loss -53

329 71.4%




EURGBP profit 48

EURGBP profit 140

EURGBP profit 72

EURGBP loss -32

EURGBP profit 242

EURGBP profit 102

EURGBP profit 56

628 85.7%




EURJPY profit 196

EURJPY profit 239

EURJPY profit 192

EURJPY profit 198

825 100.0%




EURUSD profit 303

EURUSD profit 98

EURUSD profit 177

578 100.0%




GBPCHF profit 297

GBPCHF profit 261

GBPCHF profit 177

GBPCHF profit 210

GBPCHF profit 242

GBPCHF profit 287

GBPCHF profit 262

1736 100.0%




GBPJPY profit 214

GBPJPY profit 280

GBPJPY profit 368

GBPJPY loss -200

GBPJPY profit 210

GBPJPY profit 288

1160 83.3%




GBPUSD profit 502

GBPUSD profit 154

GBPUSD loss -155

501 66.7%




USDCAD loss -85

USDCAD loss -90

USDCAD loss -35 -

210 0.0%




USDCHF loss -232

USDCHF loss -68

USDCHF profit 132

168 33.3%




USDJPY profit 133

USDJPY loss -101

USDJPY loss -60

-28 33.3%


Grand Total 5694 pips



Hope that helps

Paulus

I should point out I used to use this to trade wheat oil gas gold etc and indexes via a spread betting comp nayAttachment

1st is barclays taken last year next er2 cash

Here is new version of my indicator.
Please look and check if i did something wrong this time. This version alsow shows last swing level as a dot.

copper

was asked to post this to a professional trader

its a gold chart with the system signals on it

Oil and soya bean ..all old charts !

close up of last 2 signals on gold for the guy

have this as DB but cant rem what it was lols

Hi Paulus

Many thx for that very valuable and credible information and for taking the time to post it.

Was this using the trailing stop method described in your other link?

What have you found best and most profitable? TS or straight set TP?

BTW - What was the time period that the stats apply to?

Here is a thought? If you restricted the trades to only taking them when the SL was at least equal to the TP, 1:1 RR would this have increased your overall profit?

Law

Thanx not enugh for you Paulus.. Fantastic system given by you..

Dexil

Thanks for your hard work on this indicator Id like to work with you closely on this if i may ...

..Ive loaded the new one on but the swing dots are slightly off here is a chart showing a long and ive explained on the chart where the swing low should be I hope it doesn't take to much of your time to alter .. I don't know how you do it lols

Just looked again and I think what is happening is that the swing low is perfect but under the wrong candle this doesn't matter in fact having the stop or swing low under the entry candle will visually work better but 1 things if I may

 

1. How can we check the value of the dot I cannot get any data on it even with my navigator open and my cross hairs on it.Once we have the swing low value we should deduct 10 pips off that value this becomes our stop visa versa for longs

Thanks again its really appreciated and saves so much time.

Paulus

Hi, Paulus. Yes swing dots are drawn with signal bars, but they show correct levels of swings. You can get the value by moving cursor on dot and waiting while pop-up window appear

Law

Yes the trailing stop is the one in the other link once we have things sorted with a static TP I will post here the way I use a trailing stop.

But in a nut shell we are not using indicators at all rather we are using price action

TS or TP with a trailing stop the position is left open for longer if things go your way this can result in having several positions open at once which all need monitoring every day at your mechanical alloted time for me all stop moves on existing trades take place at 9pm when Im looking at entering new trade signals

On a fixed TP its more of a one shot weapon closing out trades hopefully quickly and turning over the account.

On reflection the sliding TP makes more money when swap rally or fall they can do so in the hundreds of pips the sliding stop copes with this quite nicely.

If your good at managing several positions use the sliding TP if you want more of a clinical approach with a view getting in and out in a few days use the fixed TP

The states were last year for 3-4 months I think I will have to check

1;1 RR on sl and tp tricky the risk reward is important but also as important is the placement of the stop in a technically good position..ie

If we had a short and a target of 100 pips we use a 1;1 RR and place our stop 100 pips above our entry but this is 30 pips below the last swing high.. would we rather risk losing 100 pips on a stops that has no technical correlation to the position its purely a fixed number or would we rather have a stop place in the market that is going to be a tough technical level to break..I personally would always go to the later I wanted a protected position my MM will protect my account

Paulus

ah great thanks Dezil your a wonder

cheers

Paulus