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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #12,881
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:04am Oct 24, 2008 6:04am
Miners getting hammered. Rio Tinto, Billiton et al entering the abyss. Growth?? What growth? (Are things really that bad
  • #12,882
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:18am Oct 24, 2008 6:18am
Quoting ukvipersden
Miners getting hammered. Rio Tinto, Billiton et al entering the abyss. Growth?? What growth? (Are things really that bad
UK GDP q/q -0.5% is the cause of the freakout...

Market is pricing in a recession for months. Then comes the first real recession data and guess what? Market gets surprised...

Well, if the "buy on the rumours, sell on the news" applies here, this will be an interesting Friday.
  • #12,883
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:30am Oct 24, 2008 6:30am
Quoting cesarnc
UK GDP q/q -0.5% is the cause of the freakout...

Market is pricing in a recession for months. Then comes the first real recession data and guess what? Market gets surprised...

Well, if the \"buy on the rumours, sell on the news\" applies here, this will be an interesting Friday.
it happened in Asian session overnight when poor earnings think from samsung and others, nikkei was down 10% at 7k now - can u believe that topped out near 40k at its peak years ago, lost decades in japan, time for the west to have its own lost decades now, forget any bull market now for a good few years, they will keep rates extra low for a least 3years near 0% fed funds,

limit downs will be reset at US open... interesting to see where it ends up...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,884
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:32am Oct 24, 2008 6:32am
https://www.cme.com/trading/files/Eq...LimitGuide.pdf

limit down levels for CME
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,885
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:33am Oct 24, 2008 6:33am
Quoting cesarnc
UK GDP q/q -0.5% is the cause of the freakout...

Market is pricing in a recession for months. Then comes the first real recession data and guess what? Market gets surprised...

Well, if the \"buy on the rumours, sell on the news\" applies here, this will be an interesting Friday.
Trouble is - and this is what I find so bizarre - the market has not been discounting news as of late; it's been reacting to events. This is one reason - there are many others - why we have had no bear market rallies (and if we have, they have lasted a few hours! minutes! LOL). Just how low can we go?? I still say Dow 4000.
  • #12,886
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:33am Oct 24, 2008 6:33am
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...RGEwtqBFQM.asf

very interesting...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,887
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:35am Oct 24, 2008 6:35am
Quoting ukvipersden
Trouble is - and this is what I find so bizarre - the market has not been discounting news as of late; it's been reacting to events. This is one reason - there are many others - why we have no bear market rallies (and if we have, they have lasted a few hours! minutes! LOL). Just how low can we go?? I still say Dow 4000.

has to test 2003 lows as a minimum now... check the charts

s and p to 500?! no real reason why not...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,888
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:50am Oct 24, 2008 6:50am
Quoting fx local
has to test 2003 lows as a minimum now... check the charts

s and p to 500?! no real reason why not...
7K-ish is 50% off historical highs, where longer term bulls might be sitting.
  • #12,889
  • Oct 24, 2008 6:56am Oct 24, 2008 6:56am
Originally Posted by ukvipersden http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Trouble is - and this is what I find so bizarre - the market has not been discounting news as of late; it's been reacting to events. This is one reason - there are many others - why we have no bear market rallies (and if we have, they have lasted a few hours! minutes! LOL). Just how low can we go?? I still say Dow 4000.

Quoting fx local
has to test 2003 lows as a minimum now... check the charts

s and p to 500?! no real reason why not...
Agreed, and I can't see many folks wanting to remain Long over the weekend
  • #12,890
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:06am Oct 24, 2008 7:06am
Quoting ganymedes
Time to go dollar hunting! Finally short some USDNOK
Ehhh, ooops! Out of that trade again this morning.
Markets today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/newsimage...s/bear_191.jpg
  • #12,891
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:08am Oct 24, 2008 7:08am
Quoting cesarnc
7K-ish is 50% off historical highs, where longer term bulls might be sitting.
stocks will begin to bottom out for sure when they stop cutting rates, when they cut the markets ultimately drop, so when rates bottom out and start to turn up so will the market, bailouts=bad news for market, the market knows that the politicians have no clue what the right thing to do is... why would any1 trust bernanke or bonehead paulson?

for now we going down, many funds puking up now, whats next on crisis? more bail outs? credit card defaults, student loans, car companies

going to be tough environment for equities, always going to be bottom fishing and reversals but if the trend will only now change over a longer time period
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,892
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:18am Oct 24, 2008 7:18am
Could this happen to Western stocks over the next 10 years?

18 years of stagnation for the japanese when they bailed every1 out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,893
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:41am Oct 24, 2008 7:41am
Quoting fx local
Could this happen to Western stocks over the next 10 years?

18 years of stagnation for the japanese when they bailed every1 out
I don't think so.. I still see much more panic than fundamentals going on. Japan lost a decade, right, but cīmon, that lil piece of shaky land, poor resources, small domestic market, (nice barely legal Asian teens, I give you that), I think they just lost the track with China coming into play and other part of the world developing fast as well, BRIC, for instance...

That's not the case here... 300 million Americans will get back to crazy spendings at the first chance, ham&egg, McDonalds, obesity, shit shopping, SUVs and all. Hey! Look! A Starbucks

We just have to wait for this deleveraging that is going on. Dow 14k? Not for a long time now. 14K was when "mortgage related assets" were still promissing profit. Several institutions will have to figure out how to make a buck in a virtually 0% interest rate landscape. Til then, ranging market....

That's my expert's view.
  • #12,894
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:45am Oct 24, 2008 7:45am
wow, how'd ya'll do on this crazy morning? I slept through it, hope some of you squeezed green out of that red.
  • #12,895
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:46am Oct 24, 2008 7:46am
Quoting fx local
why would any1 trust bernanke or bonehead paulson?
Yup, as they say, no one was guarding the guardian...
  • #12,896
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:56am Oct 24, 2008 7:56am
Quoting cesarnc
I don't think so.. I still see much more panic than fundamentals going on. Japan lost a decade, right, but cīmon, that lil piece of shaky land, poor resources, small domestic market, (nice barely legal Asian teens, I give you that), I think they just lost the track with China coming into play and other part of the world developing fast as well, BRIC, for instance...

That's not the case here... 300 million Americans will get back to crazy spendings at the first chance, ham&egg, McDonalds, obesity, shit shopping, SUVs and all. Hey! Look! A Starbucks

We just have to wait for this deleveraging that is going on. Dow 14k? Not for a long time now. 14K was when \"mortgage related assets\" were still promissing profit. Several institutions will have to figure out how to make a buck in a virtually 0% interest rate landscape. Til then, ranging market....

That's my expert's view.
agree to an extent... dont hear bonehead coming on wires and saying "US fundamentals are strong" anymore.... fundamentals are purely a intellectual curiosity..


crazy spending?? cant see it happening with all this wealth destruction, and unemployment to come....

the time of the US having countercycle policies is over. they been at the centre for too long, their time is up...!

ranging market for sure, zombie economy, zombie investment banks....

crash proof by peter shiff is a must read for all involved in markets....
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #12,897
  • Oct 24, 2008 8:28am Oct 24, 2008 8:28am
Circuit breaker, doom and gloom, UK GDP negative, to hell with all of it...

IT'S A FRIDAY, for Christ sakes...

http://www.whoateallthepies.tv/jafsfsafafaas.gif
  • #12,898
  • Oct 24, 2008 8:29am Oct 24, 2008 8:29am
DING DING DING!!

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y34...rprisedDog.jpg
  • #12,899
  • Oct 24, 2008 8:30am Oct 24, 2008 8:30am
Will this separate the men from the boys?? C'mon! There will be blood

http://www.musicdirect.com/shared/im...l_be_blood.jpg
  • #12,900
  • Oct 24, 2008 8:49am Oct 24, 2008 8:49am
Dow closes green today, or I'll dance naked in an al-qaeda camp shouting "Jesus rules!!!"
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