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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,421
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:54pm Feb 27, 2007 7:54pm
Is there a buy signal (trend reversal) on this pair. I am looking at Mig charts at 00:00 candle.

I was thinking of going
long at 118.61
sl at 118.18
tp at 119.00

just with a demo account.

Any insight is appreciated.
  • #1,422
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:04pm Feb 27, 2007 8:04pm
be very careful... price has plowed back a long way already... I would love to have been in early, but waiting for a true setup... pullback or something

edit: also... where would you put the stop? the rules would make your stop enormous - around 100 pips!... is the R:R good eough? very volatil right now
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,423
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:10pm Feb 27, 2007 8:10pm
What is the best way to tell if this is a trend continuation signal to the long side or a short back down to the 89ma which is the up-trendline as well?
Attached Image
  • #1,424
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:18pm Feb 27, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting smnitro1
I'm getting a little confused. When listening to Phillip's last mp3 on the 1hr system, didn't he say to use the 1hr for an early signal and make the trade on the 4h? And if the signal is better, why use the 4hr at all?
Can someone make this clear for me.
Thanks

Hi smnitro1!

I think (and I could have misunderstood and should relisten) Phillip was saying to use the 1 hr chart to find a good entry after a trend continuation candle follows on the 4 hr. Pretty sure he stated specifically not to use MACD patterns to determine trades and to only go with the trend direction when figuring out earlier entry.

So, do all your analysis on the 4 hour and then use the 1 hour to find best entry point.
  • #1,425
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:20pm Feb 27, 2007 8:20pm
Quoting Palmer
What is the best way to tell if this is a trend continuation signal to the long side or a short back down to the 89ma which is the up-trendline as well?
Hi Palmer!

The best way to tell is to wait for the candle to close. Personnally, I'm not going to trade against this trend (I'm cautious) and will wait for a signal to go long. (the r:r isn't good right now).
  • #1,426
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:25pm Feb 27, 2007 8:25pm
When you are unskilled in computers this is a giant step for me. Hopefully a chart of the Euro will appear.I find drawing in the channels helps a lot to read the action.
Attached Image
  • #1,427
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:25pm Feb 27, 2007 8:25pm
Quoting Benf
Sorry, I didn't follow the Phillip's thread last weeks and didn't hear the MP3 where he introduces H1 charts as well. I thought his strategy includes only H4 candles as it was stated in the PDF docs at the very beginning of the method discussion.
Hi Benf,

Phillip introduced the 1 hr charts today (or yesterday depending on time frame). I think the post is around page 92 if you want to go back and listen. It is an enhancement to the system that allows us to enter a bit earlier and hopefully capture more of a move.

Happy listening

ps. nice job with your yen trades yesterday!
  • #1,428
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:28pm Feb 27, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting oztrader
When you are unskilled in computers this is a giant step for me. Hopefully a chart of the Euro will appear.I find drawing in the channels helps a lot to read the action.

Nice Job w/ the chart!!
  • #1,429
  • Feb 27, 2007 8:44pm Feb 27, 2007 8:44pm
Most appreciated everyone.
I would not be doing this without you all.
  • #1,430
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:07pm Feb 27, 2007 9:07pm
Anyone that previewed Philip's 1hr system.
Phill says to only trade the continuation patterns with the 1hr time period. He seems to be using an 8,13,1 MACD setting for all time frames.
Am I correct?
  • #1,431
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:17pm Feb 27, 2007 9:17pm
I believe the MACD for the 4 hour time frame is 5,13,1 and for the 1 hour time frame it is 8,13,1. This gives a smoother curve in this quicker time frame.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #1,432
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:18pm Feb 27, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting DireXiv
be very careful... price has plowed back a long way already... I would love to have been in early, but waiting for a true setup... pullback or something

edit: also... where would you put the stop? the rules would make your stop enormous - around 100 pips!... is the R:R good eough? very volatil right now
Thanks for the insight...

So the macd changing directions is the signal, but the r:r is not worth it? Would the rules say to put the stop at the bottom of the 20:00 candle?
Would you guess that this pair will just sit for a little and not make much of a move by looking at the chart history after a move like this?

Just trying to understand how the market moves.

nanette
  • #1,433
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:21pm Feb 27, 2007 9:21pm
Will the big drop in the DOW affect anyones trading strategy? Will it affect the forex at all?
  • #1,434
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:24pm Feb 27, 2007 9:24pm
Has anyone looked at this pair? Look like a nice round bottom forming. R/R could be good with s/l at the 365 and t/p at the 200.
Any thoughts?
  • #1,435
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:25pm Feb 27, 2007 9:25pm
Good work OZ. Yes, the LRC channel gives nice visual references and a heads up on areas to watch for possible price action and MACD signals. Channel dancing is a good way to make pips.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #1,436
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:29pm Feb 27, 2007 9:29pm
here is my current chart
Attached Image
  • #1,437
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:41pm Feb 27, 2007 9:41pm
If I had to take this trade (however I personally wouldn't, but please don't let that stop you.. to each his own and the more you trade the more/better you learn in my experience):

entry: 118.4
S/L: 117.40
Risk: 65 pips
1st target: 119 reward: 60 pips to 8 ema
2nd target: 119.70 reward: 130 to 21 ema and 365

R:R is good if you would use this, but there are other barriers to that it will have to pass through to make these targets. I'm also not willing to make trades that requre 60 pips s/l.... if you would trade 2 lots with a full account and get stopped out... that is a loss of $1200

I believe it has found good support at the 118 level (TL and market rythm), but it has gone up so much from there so quickly, where does it go from here? does it continue a huge rise (has already tried that and has pulled back), does it pull all the way back to the support and then go up from there. I guess my biggest problem is.... where would I get in at for a good entry. Look at the lower time frame 30 min or 1 hour if you want to make a trade to get a good entry. Also, remember we are below the 89 sma, so we are in an inherent downtrend.

Just my thoughts... on the 4 hour and in any system, be selective of your trades and follow your rules.. consistent wins are the only way to survive this game.

Anyone else comments? (btw, when I reply.. I'm not 100% sure I'm right, but everytime I reply... I have to do research to give an educated answer on my rules.... so I learn my rules better and learn too )

Quoting 5forMe
Thanks for the insight...

So the macd changing directions is the signal, but the r:r is not worth it? Would the rules say to put the stop at the bottom of the 20:00 candle?
Would you guess that this pair will just sit for a little and not make much of a move by looking at the chart history after a move like this?

Just trying to understand how the market moves.

nanette
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,438
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:50pm Feb 27, 2007 9:50pm
Thanks Direxiv,

Your analysis is exactly why I want to participate in this thread. Everyone here is so willing to help, it really is great.

I may have learned a little from my mistake to take the long trade, but not as much as I just did from your post.

thanks again.
  • #1,439
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:53pm Feb 27, 2007 9:53pm
Anyone long for Usd/jpy looks like it bounced off the 118.00
entry at 118.50
SL below 118.00
TP 119.60
First TP 119.00
  • #1,440
  • Feb 27, 2007 9:57pm Feb 27, 2007 9:57pm
3:50 gmt

To me it looks like if it will pullback to the 21 ema (which looks like it might pullback anyway with RT and upper TL hit, and 89 hit), and test it again, by the rules, it will then continue uptrend. But what do I know??!?!?!?

I would love to get something else out of this pair. Comments from anyone else?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
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