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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,401
  • Feb 27, 2007 2:14pm Feb 27, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting AlphaPip
There is a Lower MACD High with the close of the current 4HR candle in 30 min. And prices bounced of trendline resistance. Is anyone going short at the close of the candle?

EDIT: Well, a small rise in price has voided the Lower High in this candle's MACD. 15 min. to close.
Looks like our feeling was right. One must not that it turns the emotions negative. I took a decision based on my rules and I have won in the sense that I sticked to it. There will be plenty better deals along the way.
  • #1,402
  • Edited 5:11pm Feb 27, 2007 2:27pm | Edited 5:11pm
Phillip thanks for the 1 hour info, just what I wanted for the Asian time frame.I am having a good trade on the EURGBP, up 40 pips and rising.Can someone tell me please how I can transfer the copied charts into my message. I want to contribute to this thread.

Thanks
  • #1,403
  • Feb 27, 2007 2:32pm Feb 27, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
It looks like a short is given but the 200SMA and 21EMA together spoils it a as well as we are in an uptrend. Price above 89SMA with price tested 21EMA. I however like the tails to the top. My heart says short to 1.9600, my head and rules says no. I will stick to my rules
Phillip

I do like your explanation between "heart and head/rules". That is one of my problems. It is so difficult to ignore your heart. Especially if the trade goes according to your heart and then that "I should have taken the trade" feeling. I just told myself, wait the next trade that fits the rules. That one is over and there is nothing I can do. Good for those are in on the ride.

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,404
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:30pm Feb 27, 2007 3:30pm
I finally finished ready through this entire thread. I hope I can contribute in some small way eventually. I hope to have the enlightenment the a few of you recently received and that it will all click with me too.

I officially.. well unofficially (demo) going to trade this system. Thanks Phillip!

I am looking at my charts and I am seeing nothing as far as Macd Signals. I am trying to trade the rules. Does anyone see anything or would anyone be willing to give a quick run down of what might be coming? I am using the Mig charts if that is helpful.

Buy the way I am on the West Coast (PDT), is anyone else?

Nanette
  • #1,405
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:33pm Feb 27, 2007 3:33pm
Hi Nanette... glad you read through it all and welcome! I officially see nothing I would like to trade right now, but I'm only concentrating on the eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/jpy, and eur/jpy.

If you use the system how it's setup... you'll make pips... go by the rules and keep emotion out of it and you'll do well.

Quoting 5forMe
I finally finished ready through this entire thread. I hope I can contribute in some small way eventually. I hope to have the enlightenment the a few of you recently received and that it will all click with me too.

I officially.. well unofficially (demo) going to trade this system. Thanks Phillip!

I am looking at my charts and I am seeing nothing as far as Macd Signals. I am trying to trade the rules. Does anyone see anything or would anyone be willing to give a quick run down of what might be coming? I am using the Mig charts if that is helpful.

Buy the way I am on the West Coast (PDT), is anyone else?

Nanette
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,406
  • Edited 3:57pm Feb 27, 2007 3:44pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Looks like our feeling was right. One must not that it turns the emotions negative. I took a decision based on my rules and I have won in the sense that I sticked to it. There will be plenty better deals along the way.
I've learned a great deal from this thread and will continue to utilize it's strategy. The heart may have made 20 pips today, but following the rules will far outweigh that missed opportunity.

EDIT: Currently the 21MA is still holding support. I believe a fall below that, could spawn a drop to the 365MA or even the lower trendline.

Also, does anyone else see the Symmetrical Triangle forming?
Attached Image
  • #1,407
  • Feb 27, 2007 5:08pm Feb 27, 2007 5:08pm
fxnewbie 71:

Discipline is one of the hardest rules to follow when trading. Discipline can meet not chasing a market, developing rules while you are trading, or letting emotions rule your trades. Losses can be just as valuable as winners. They more or less put you in your place to remind you that you aren't going to be correct all of the time. But those losses are where the discipline of using stops comes into play. Never think that the market will turn around and put you on the plus side. Say you hit 10 winners in a row, winners being 10, 15 pips or so. Hell, your're invincible and you double your lots on trade # 11. Then you take a loss and it hits hard. You really feel sick that you took a loss. That's where all of the MM rules and stops come into play. Don't deviate from your plan and think just because of this or that then this or that will happen. Write your rules down on paper, a checklist, and stick with it. Losses will happen, they are good for you believe it or not. They are good for the markets too, if everyone won, then there would be no market. You need to find that edge that gives you more winners than losers. Having a plan and sticking with it is a huge part of the game...
  • #1,408
  • Feb 27, 2007 5:45pm Feb 27, 2007 5:45pm
11:43 GMT (i'm on east coast us time)

my candle closes in 20 minutes, I'm shorting

Entry: 1.3231
S/L: 1.3265 risk 32 pips
1st profit target: 1.3214 for 17 pips just above the 8 ema
2nd profit target: 1.3192 for 39 pips just above the 21 ema
3rd target: let it ride if it would so choose
R:R good to the 2nd profit point.

Reasons:

We hit the market rythm point and turning back
macd shows short
candle have nice upward tails
current resistance hit also shows resistance in the past
31 pips down to next price level.
Round coming at just above .3 on my MACD so should be solid signal.

I am up one pip over spread

Looks like solid trade to me. Also keep your eye on the usd/cad for a short, and the jpy pairs have to come back SOME time... just wait for the rules... don't jump in just because it HAS to come back SOME time.

Thoughts and comments are always appreciated.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,409
  • Feb 27, 2007 5:48pm Feb 27, 2007 5:48pm
DireXiv:

Who's you're broker? Just curious. I'm with FXDD and my current candle doesn't close for another 2 hours...but it's all gooooooood.
  • #1,410
  • Feb 27, 2007 5:57pm Feb 27, 2007 5:57pm
I use gft.... I know a lot of "real" traders say it has too much spread, but at 3 pips per trade (most of the time), I'll give up that extra 1 pip for their charting capabilities..... It is soooo much easier for me to work with and customize than any of the platforms I've tried. Just my opinion... to each his own. Their feed is on 0:00 GMT.

I still use a MIG demo for a different view or what some of you see to evaluate decisions ect...

Quoting Palmer
DireXiv:

Who's you're broker? Just curious. I'm with FXDD and my current candle doesn't close for another 2 hours...but it's all gooooooood.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,411
  • Feb 27, 2007 6:02pm Feb 27, 2007 6:02pm
word...

FXDD's spread on the E$ is 2 pips. I've got no complaints.

Trade on!
  • #1,412
  • Feb 27, 2007 6:43pm Feb 27, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting 5forMe
I finally finished ready through this entire thread. I hope I can contribute in some small way eventually. I hope to have the enlightenment the a few of you recently received and that it will all click with me too.

I officially.. well unofficially (demo) going to trade this system. Thanks Phillip!

I am looking at my charts and I am seeing nothing as far as Macd Signals. I am trying to trade the rules. Does anyone see anything or would anyone be willing to give a quick run down of what might be coming? I am using the Mig charts if that is helpful.

Buy the way I am on the West Coast (PDT), is anyone else?

Nanette
Hi Nanette!

I'm in California. : )

Glad to know someone else officially from the West Coast time zone!!!

Donna
  • #1,413
  • Feb 27, 2007 6:50pm Feb 27, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting oztrader
Phillip thanks for the 1 hour info, just what I wanted for the Asian time frame.I am having a good trade on the EURGBP, up 40 pips and rising.Can someone tell me please how I can transfer the copied charts into my message. I want to contribute to this thread.

Thanks
Hi Oztrader

Probably answered already (and great post re: sharing charts a few pages back). I save my chart as a GIF and upload as attachment to Forex Factory. The manage attachment tab at the bottom of the post box window allows us to upload image. If your chart won't let you save as gif or jpeg, then you need to hit print screen button on your keyboard (prt sc) paste ino windows or paint program w/ ctrl + V then upload.
  • #1,414
  • Edited 7:36pm Feb 27, 2007 6:59pm | Edited 7:36pm
I've found out that by using H4 candles I every time lose a bunch of pips because of late enter, and H4 signal is not more reliable than H1 is. Today I followed a RB (round bottom by Chandra's system of abbreviations) on H1 chart and it seems the trade runs very good.
Did somebody also try to trade on H1 chart signals as I did? I went long immediately when the last blue arrow (MACD bar #3) appeared though the candle was red.
http://forexbarometer.com/graph/h1-macd-20070227.gif
Ben
  • #1,415
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:04pm Feb 27, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting DireXiv
11:43 GMT (i'm on east coast us time)

my candle closes in 20 minutes, I'm shorting

Entry: 1.3231
S/L: 1.3265 risk 32 pips
1st profit target: 1.3214 for 17 pips just above the 8 ema
2nd profit target: 1.3192 for 39 pips just above the 21 ema
3rd target: let it ride if it would so choose
R:R good to the 2nd profit point.

Reasons:

We hit the market rythm point and turning back
macd shows short
candle have nice upward tails
current resistance hit also shows resistance in the past
31 pips down to next price level.
Round coming at just above .3 on my MACD so should be solid signal.

I am up one pip over spread

Looks like solid trade to me. Also keep your eye on the usd/cad for a short, and the jpy pairs have to come back SOME time... just wait for the rules... don't jump in just because it HAS to come back SOME time.

Thoughts and comments are always appreciated.
Looks like a nice aggressive trade! I'm watching USDCHF for a counter trend trade (instead of Eur) and it may give it signal in a few hours (better r:r and move opposite EURUSD). Can't say I'm staying out of EUR b/c of wicked trend b/c Swissie's looks pretty wicked too.

PS The Doji two candles back w/confirmation from last candle closed below Doji's close) is pretty nice sign of reversal!!!!
  • #1,416
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:25pm Feb 27, 2007 7:25pm
Benf:

A chart is a chart is a chart. You'll end up getting more signals on the 1hr vs the 4hr. It all depends on your trading style and how oftern you can watch the charts. I've placed three trades on the 4hr and have three winners netting about 40 pips. Whatever works for you....
  • #1,417
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:27pm Feb 27, 2007 7:27pm
I'm getting a little confused. When listening to Phillip's last mp3 on the 1hr system, didn't he say to use the 1hr for an early signal and make the trade on the 4h? And if the signal is better, why use the 4hr at all?
Can someone make this clear for me.
Thanks
  • #1,418
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:42pm Feb 27, 2007 7:42pm
Quoting smnitro1
When listening to Phillip's last mp3 on the 1hr system, didn't he say to use the 1hr for an early signal and make the trade on the 4h?
Sorry, I didn't follow the Phillip's thread last weeks and didn't hear the MP3 where he introduces H1 charts as well. I thought his strategy includes only H4 candles as it was stated in the PDF docs at the very beginning of the method discussion.
Ben
  • #1,419
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:46pm Feb 27, 2007 7:46pm
smnitro1:

Again it depends on how often you can watch the charts. A move (signal) will appear to be setting up first on the shorter timeframe but the longer timeframe is more reliable. If you trade solely on the 1hr then all of your movings averages, macd's etc. will be computed from that 1hr chart. Your pip targets will be smaller, remember that. If someone is banking 40 pips on a move on the 4hr then you will only be banking about 10 or so on the one hour because of your shorter timeframe. The longer the timeframe, the wider the stops but larger profit target. You can trade off the 1hr, you'll get more signals but more false signals as well. You'll have to reduce your pip target. Yes the 1hr can be used as an early entry but it takes 4 one hour bars to make up 1 four hour bar. A lot can happen each hour that can make your one hour bar a 'no go' on a 4 hour bar...
  • #1,420
  • Feb 27, 2007 7:47pm Feb 27, 2007 7:47pm
not sure if thi will specifically help you out or not, but in any higher time frame system, it is good practice to look at lower timeframe for entry to get the best entry... I use the 30 min chart when i see a 4 hour signal forming to optimize entry when i can. then i use the 4 hour for the rest of the trade as i am use to my exits and wont get out of trade prematurely if i was omly looking at 30 min chart.

this has been MUCH more effective for me than just using 30 min charts

Edit: well said palmer
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
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