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  • #4,661
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:03am Oct 23, 2008 3:03am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Good morning sir! You know I was just looking at that....I wish I bought this pair at the beginning of the month. This is one of these trades I would want to monitor very closely when deciding to jump in on (make sure there arent any big, intentional runs. This is risky just based on momentum but I might be willing to sacrafice a loss for an attempt - levels like this are pretty rare to say the least.

Oil is getting smashed lately, and it wouldnt shock me to see ucad go up to into the 3's in the process, but a pullback might be in the cards.

1.2625 is the level. Caution is my only advice. Not ruling it out but being very careful with it.
Yes i know what you mean. I had buylimit @ 1.0246 which didnt get filled because of the strong support it was resting at that moment. I knew this was going up, but after i missed the early entry, i didnt bother somehow to look for a pullback and jump, because i was stuck with loonie before and was thinking this pair is not for me lol now i must regret.

Anyway we cant get them all can we?
  • #4,662
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:06am Oct 23, 2008 3:06am
Quoting belekas
Yes i know what you mean. I had buylimit @ 1.0246 which didnt get filled because of the strong support it was resting at that moment. I knew this was going up, but after i missed the early entry, i didnt bother somehow to look for a pullback and jump, because i was stuck with loonie before and was thinking this pair is not for me lol now i must regret.

Anyway we cant get them all can we?
Lots of junk up here in general - you have the 50% retracement, a bottom sticking out from back in Jan 2004 and then the highs. Should be a show atleast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #4,663
  • Edited 3:26am Oct 23, 2008 3:09am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Lots of junk up here in general - you have the 50% retracement, a bottom sticking out from back in Jan 2004 and then the highs. Should be a show atleast.
Yes for sure Congrats with nice YEN shorts. I got up 20mins later and missed this nice and easy sell... Thanks for this great thread BRV! I was trading only trendlines with price patterns and forgot about horizontal S/R and now i see that was the missing ingriedent

Cheers buddy!
  • #4,664
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:24am Oct 23, 2008 3:24am
Hello BRV,

first of all, daily thanks for daily levels.
There is a little thing I cannot seem to figure out myself, no matter how hard I try. Today and yesterday you had GBP buys at 1.5850 (50% of monthly wave) please tell me, where would be 0 and 100 % for this one, and on which TF should I look for it. You can't imagine how hard I looked for it.

tia
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,665
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:28am Oct 23, 2008 3:28am
I believe there WAS another bucket at your red line. Well, sort of bucket. The type when S/R is reached with a quick move, and the bounce is even quicker. Agree?

Quoting Willowgal
USDJPY bucket alert if it gets down there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1023ujm5.jpg Size: 63 KB
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,666
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:35am Oct 23, 2008 3:35am
Quoting spekitox
I believe there WAS another bucket at your red line. Well, sort of bucket. The type when S/R is reached with a quick move, and the bounce is even quicker. Agree?
There was like 500 pips to be made on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY shorting from the same previous support turned resistance. Very nice trades indeed.
  • #4,667
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:45am Oct 23, 2008 3:45am
Only guessing but is this of help ?

Not quite on 1.5850 but near enough ... I havn't checked the exact highs and lows but the 61.8% of wave down and 50% of move up both hit around that point.

Quoting spekitox
Hello BRV,

first of all, daily thanks for daily levels.
There is a little thing I cannot seem to figure out myself, no matter how hard I try. Today and yesterday you had GBP buys at 1.5850 (50% of monthly wave) please tell me, where would be 0 and 100 % for this one, and on which TF should I look for it. You can't imagine how hard I looked for it.

tia
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd monthly.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #4,668
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:50am Oct 23, 2008 3:50am
BRV, as you see now we had second pullback on YEN majors to the price pivot zone and as i have read we have less chances to enter a profitable trade on the second attempt? Though looks like second bounce was good as well. Any comments bro?
  • #4,669
  • Oct 23, 2008 3:50am Oct 23, 2008 3:50am
I see what you mean, but I think the Buckets are more distinct where there has been an obvious period of consolidation before the creation of the 2nd side of the bucket. ie. a wide bottom to it !

This was more a straight bounce off resistance (the red line) really I think.


Quoting spekitox
I believe there WAS another bucket at your red line. Well, sort of bucket. The type when S/R is reached with a quick move, and the bounce is even quicker. Agree?
  • #4,670
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:04am Oct 23, 2008 4:04am
hi all... especially mr. BRV...
i want to confirm the Loco... is it a bucket? and it should go back upwards?
thx
Money management is good for your health...
  • #4,671
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:07am Oct 23, 2008 4:07am
Quoting 13thheaven
hi all... especially mr. BRV...
i want to confirm the Loco... is it a bucket? and it should go back upwards?
thx
Hiya, what is the Loco? What time frame are talking about? A chart would help

Best Wishes,
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,672
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:30am Oct 23, 2008 4:30am
Quoting Willowgal
Only guessing but is this of help ?

Not quite on 1.5850 but near enough ... I havn't checked the exact highs and lows but the 61.8% of wave down and 50% of move up both hit around that point.

Yup thats it....its a doosey
  • #4,673
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:33am Oct 23, 2008 4:33am
sorry, but the upload took a very long time...
bad connection here...
Loco is gold...
i'm talking about 1H timeframe...
hope u can help

Quoting aSandman
Hiya, what is the Loco? What time frame are talking about? A chart would help

Best Wishes,
Jason
Money management is good for your health...
  • #4,674
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:36am Oct 23, 2008 4:36am
yupp, thankx a lot. 0 % is at 1983. 02-03 low, 100 % at 2007. nov high on monthly TF.

here is a GJ chart of the same "bucket" sort, yeah, no U shape here, just a quick rally towards S/R and when the line is hit, falls like a rock. Hope one day I will discover these opportunities in real time not only the next hour.

Quoting Willowgal
Only guessing but is this of help ?
Not quite on 1.5850 but near enough ... I havn't checked the exact highs and lows but the 61.8% of wave down and 50% of move up both hit around that point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1023gjm15.jpg Size: 72 KB
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,675
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:42am Oct 23, 2008 4:42am
Quoting belekas
BRV, as you see now we had second pullback on YEN majors to the price pivot zone and as i have read we have less chances to enter a profitable trade on the second attempt? Though looks like second bounce was good as well. Any comments bro?
On something like this what Im looking at now it looks like more of an exaggerated pullback than a second attempt. Kind of a rare case here; either way it depends.

Sometimes if I miss a level for whatever reason, I wait for price to charge back up close to it and get in (the first big retracement) if I have a strong conviction its going lower.

A level like this, and under the current conditions might have been worth the shot. When you get some nutty momentum leading up them though it can be another story. But not here.

There's some grey area here I realize and I have to say with a lot of these issues in regards to momentum, there really is a certain "feel" for it that comes with experience. Basic overbought/oversold indicators can help too; looking at them across multiple timeframes will give you and idea, mathematically, of where you stand.....they help; not going to say they dont sometimes.....I still use this stoch rsi here after all this time - I cant get away from it but it really does help me out sometimes I have to be honest.

Momentum is something to respect and take advantage of; a while back I posted a chart where, what seemed to be an obvious level, I predicted would be broken, and a less notable level, I predicted I would bounce. Me doing this is just having a very good sense of how price behaves and how much its willing to give up at any moment.....again this is just me staring at charts for endless hours that tought me this.
  • #4,676
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:46am Oct 23, 2008 4:46am
In this case does the indicator gave some more confidence on the shorts or not? If yes could you please post a chart for me brother. And thanks for your time to answer

Quoting BillyRayValentine
On something like this what Im looking at now it looks like more of an exaggerated pullback than a second attempt. Kind of a rare case here; either way it depends.

Sometimes if I miss a level for whatever reason, I wait for price to charge back up close to it and get in (the first big retracement) if I have a strong conviction its going lower.

A level like this, and under the current conditions might have been worth the shot. When you get some nutty momentum leading up them though it can be another story. But not here.

There's some grey area here I realize and I have to say with a lot of these issues in regards to momentum, there really is a certain \"feel\" for it that comes with experience. Basic overbought/oversold indicators can help too; looking at them across multiple timeframes will give you and idea, mathematically, of where you stand.....they help; not going to say they dont sometimes.....I still use this stoch rsi here after all this time - I cant get away from it but it really does help me out sometimes I have to be honest.
  • #4,677
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:51am Oct 23, 2008 4:51am
Quoting belekas
In this case does the indicator gave some more confidence on the shorts or not? If yes could you please post a chart for me brother. And thanks for your time to answer
Yeah like so if you look at the bigger picture here - this is a 1 hr chart and you have your indicator maxing out at an overbought extreme, for instance.

Not to say that it can't keep going overbought, but when the two line up it helps.

I only use this thing if its hitting one or zero (as far as it will go) or is showing divergence because the move is so severe. But on days like yesterday, etc, these things become useless when you get a run of cascading stops like that.

No sense on days like that you just better be on the right side of the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.jpg Size: 149 KB
  • #4,678
  • Oct 23, 2008 4:54am Oct 23, 2008 4:54am
Yes for sure. Anyway your techniq is brilliant and keep up the good work brother and thanks for the screenshot with explanation

Cheers

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah like so if you look at the bigger picture here - this is a 1 hr chart and you have your indicator maxing out at an overbought extreme, for instance.

Not to say that it can't keep going overbought, but when the two line up it helps.

I only use this thing if its hitting one or zero (as far as it will go) or is showing divergence because the move is so severe. But on days like yesterday, etc, these things become useless when you get a run of cascading stops like that.

No sense on days like that you just better be on the right side of the trade.
  • #4,679
  • Oct 23, 2008 5:07am Oct 23, 2008 5:07am
Hey BRV!

Just want to say that it's nice how you
explain how to adapt to market conditions
and how just gaining experience comes to
bear in trading.

As for me I need to work hard, be patient
and settle in for the long haul!

Thanks!
Brent
  • #4,680
  • Oct 23, 2008 5:22am Oct 23, 2008 5:22am
Quoting FXSurfer
Hey BRV!

Just want to say that it's nice how you
explain how to adapt to market conditions
and how just gaining experience comes to
bear in trading.

As for me I need to work hard, be patient
and settle in for the long haul!

Thanks!
Brent
Good! Keep it up and thanks!
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