No Brainer Trades

Quoting aSandman

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Hi Magnus,

I would venture to say... these are the type markets to let your winners run a long time. I'm up so much for the month I'm afraid to pull the trigger for fear of losing it all back. It comes down to trusting yourself to do the right thing under any market condition. Guess I will be reading mark Douglas again tonight for the 10,000 time. lol

Let one wave go against you...........A picture says a 1000 words

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Quoting 4X4EVER

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Just a suggestion and maybe you are doing this already... when you find your SR level on a longer term chart like the weekly or monthly, change it to a 4 hour and 1 hour and \\\"zone\\\" in on what level price reacted to ( I realize in this case we are talking several years back). I view it like this, S/R levels are barriers but the true price level (from what I have observed is like 5-10 pips) and is like a hot skillet. Price is not comfortable there unless there is some stimulant getting ready to come into the market to enable it to go through. Price will trade on the other side of these levels briefly and then may reject them This is where the wicks and railroad type candle patterns come into play. It's not the wicks that are that important but WHERE they occur (IMO). When price does break the barrier you will likely see a confirming closing by a full bodied candle on the other side ( 1 or 4 hour chart). Many times it will retest this true price point before continuing. Looking at the 4 and 1 hour you can start to see where these areas lie.

Hope this has been of some assistance.

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Quoting jlmac27

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Just got into this trade.Blue line,support becomes resistance,hopefully ride it down to next support.

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Quoting alex2412

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Hi BRV, i am sorry if i asked too much, I keep a journal on every trade i made both winning and losing trades.

This is the trade i took few hours ago, although it was a losing trade but for me it seems like a pretty high probability trade or was it? any comment anyone to help me get my 'lesson' ?

Thanks alot

Alex

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Quoting smittens4212

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Hi Alex,

My take on this trade is that you must look at the two main issues here, technicals & fundamentals.

Technically speaking, it's been my (relatively little) experience that buckets are best for playing the counter-trend bounce, meaning that you scalp whatever pips you get (and this could be anywhere from 20 to 200), before the bucket level is going to be retested and broken back on following the initial trend.

Fundamentally speaking, and this definitely ties in to the technicals, the USDJPY has been on a pretty steady downtrend on strong Yen buying as investors get rid of their carry trades amidst the global stock market slumps. Because this particular bucket had already been used for a counter-trend move, I think the better move (obviously hindsight is 20/20) would've been to hang around the sidelines, wait for price action around the level, and because it broke it, play the short term fade as price retests it from the downside.

Obviously as I said hindsight is 20/20, but I think in this particular case you were trying to do too much with a trade that had little fundamental support and playing a technical level that had little statistical support given the circumstances (i.e. it had already been used, therefore it's a low % trade).

Hope this helped.

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Also, I've been following this thread for the past 70 pages or so, and just registered and thought I would give my props to BRV. I've only been trading for about 8 months (including demo), and while I've been trading live for the past 4 months on a mini account, I've recently gone from being a strictly break-even trader (bouncing back and forth between profitable and losing), to a pretty consistently profitable trader thanks to this thread and your blog.

The section on fundamentals was quite literally a game-changer for me and I would say has singlehandedly improved my win % from in the low 30s to well over 80 now. Having a fundamental basis for a trade means I'm able to identify the technical levels for what they truly are-- a counter-trend fade, a continuation breakout, etc.

Unfortunately I'm only able to trade the Asian session (live on the East coast but work full-time) so I miss most of the good action in this thread, but I've been following it diligently and intend to continue, hopefully being able to contribute more.

Thanks again BRV. It's my full intention to trade full-time by next September, and only in the past few months has this become a realistic proposition. If this ever comes to fruition I will have to buy you a bottle in one of those high priced NYC clubs

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Quoting Yuppie

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Yeah, it's tricky... I'm thinking more of if the trade gives you 20+ pips and then the first wave against you takes you back to at least BE and possibly negative... Hmmm, I think it's most likely an experience thing....


Magnus

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Quoting lumesh

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usd/cad short now...or 1.2580 or so

anybody ?

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Quoting Forex007

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Are you just \"picking bottoms\" (tops in this case)?..

As someone said, if you pick bottoms, you get smelly fingers. Just kidding, no offense.

Any reason why you want to go short?..

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Quoting lumesh

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usd/cad short now...or 1.2580 or so

anybody ?

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Quoting lumesh

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50% fib on monthly...S/R as well+ something on my own


so far so good...don't you think


if you're chicken just close something out at...what is it right now 1.2520 i think (that would be 60 pips when i called it)....put SL to BE and your good to go

i would go for another 100 pips though

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Quoting lumesh

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usd/cad short now...or 1.2580 or so

anybody ?

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Quoting Forex007

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Cannot see any strong (in my view) SR level at 1.2580 (\"strong\" as at around 1.300). As for monthly Fibo, 50% is a strong level, but how many times did we hear \"that's the top for UCAD\" during the past fee weeks - yet, it kept going. Oil is down - bad news for CAD. Etc. etc.

I agree - you are already in profit and could make more, but I don't think we are taking about any big retracements here... We'll see

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Quoting Forex007

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Cannot see any strong (in my view) SR level at 1.2580 (\"strong\" as at around 1.300). As for monthly Fibo, 50% is a strong level, but how many times did we hear \"that's the top for UCAD\" during the past fee weeks - yet, it kept going. Oil is down - bad news for CAD. Etc. etc.

I agree - you are already in profit and could make more, but I don't think we are taking about any big retracements here... We'll see

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Quoting Forex007

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Cannot see any strong (in my view) SR level at 1.2580 (\"strong\" as at around 1.300). As for monthly Fibo, 50% is a strong level, but how many times did we hear \"that's the top for UCAD\" during the past fee weeks - yet, it kept going. Oil is down - bad news for CAD. Etc. etc.

I agree - you are already in profit and could make more, but I don't think we are taking about any big retracements here... We'll see

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Quoting lumesh

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hehe...i try to be a day trader so i only take notice those levels and start to look for reversals on smaller TF's.....it might go up to 3000 and then back to 2700 on monthly chart leaving just a minor shadow...i try to pick the moments and certain levels on smaller TF than monthly.....

i'm not going for an absolute top here guys ...i really don't care where it is or will be....maybe we get oil for free in the future and CAD as a toilet paper ...but there have been, are and will be levels to short this pair over and over again...

i like when pair shoot for one direction or the other....then there will be more opportunities to reverse this pair...if you know when of course...

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Quoting Willowgal

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Hi lumesh,

If you can post a chart with your question/set-up etc. it would help everyone else to give feedback.

If people are not focussed on that pair you are unlikely to get much feedback without it IMO.

Regards,
Gareth

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