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  • #4,581
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:00pm Oct 21, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting Yuppie
Guys, the AU bucket trade that I highlighted this morning seems to be working out quite well... however, I have played it rather poorly...

The chart below shows my entry and exit...

After entry, it went 20+ pips in my favour... then retraced... I exited for +3 pips. The reason I exited was that I didn't want to let it turn into a loser...


There seems to be a fine line between not letting a winner turn into a loser... and giving a trade room to breathe...


Any comment on this trade, or giving trades room to 'breathe'?


Thanks,

Magnus
At my opinion you are taking position if you think its a good one. Starting from that point, you can never be sure if the trade will "fire or missfire".

The important point is taking position at good probability setup.
Then, since we can never be sure of future, if it miss fire, its no a big deal.
Close at BE or whit minor lost, or half at first hesitation and second half at BE.

Mark Douglas trading in the zone ebook go over this subject, and i found it really useful:
Accept the risk, play your edge, and if you take good trade setup, on an avarage, you ll be a winner.

Hope it helps!
Inz!
  • #4,582
  • Edited 3:12pm Oct 21, 2008 3:07pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting Yuppie
Guys, the AU bucket trade that I highlighted this morning seems to be working out quite well... however, I have played it rather poorly...

The chart below shows my entry and exit...

After entry, it went 20+ pips in my favour... then retraced... I exited for +3 pips. The reason I exited was that I didn't want to let it turn into a loser...


There seems to be a fine line between not letting a winner turn into a loser... and giving a trade room to breathe...


Any comment on this trade, or giving trades room to 'breathe'?


Thanks,

Magnus

Hiya Magnus,

You hit on a very very important point. Each trader will have to find a level they can live with that also has a positive mathematical expectation. If you look at the performance metrics on BRV's blog it will bring the point home. Scalp 20 pips = low draw down and low expectancy. Hold out for 150 and have higher draw down and radically improved expectancy. BRV goes into with the math behind what we do. set your SL to break even after 50 pips , and I would wait for one wave to go against you first as well.
"You can't loose what you don't put in the middle. Then again... you can't win a whole lot either." Rounders lol

Best wishes,
Jason

PS read brv link http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...t-of-your.html
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,583
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:19pm Oct 21, 2008 3:19pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Inzider
At my opinion you are taking position if you think its a good one. Starting from that point, you can never be sure if the trade will \\"fire or missfire\\".

The important point is taking position at good probability setup.
Then, since we can never be sure of future, if it miss fire, its no a big deal.
Close at BE or whit minor lost, or half at first hesitation and second half at BE.

Mark Douglas trading in the zone ebook go over this subject, and i found it really useful:
Accept the risk, play your edge, and if you take good trade setup, on an avarage, you ll be a winner.

Hope it helps!
Inz!

Thank you Inz... perhaps I'm looking too much into it...

Maybe, as part of my Trading Plan, I should have a set minimum number of pips that I will let a trade go in my favour, and if it retraces, get out at BE? Will think about this some more...


Magnus
  • #4,584
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:27pm Oct 21, 2008 3:27pm
BillyRay,

Do you consider some odd/stray highs/lows when drawing S/R levels? E.g. the one marked on the enclosed chart - it sits on a distinct level, yet that level was only hit just once.

MANY THANKS!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spike.gif Size: 18 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,585
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:28pm Oct 21, 2008 3:28pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting aSandman
Hiya Magnus,

You hit on a very very important point. Each trader will have to find a level they can live with that also has a positive mathematical expectation. If you look at the performance metrics on BRV's blog it will bring the point home. Scalp 20 pips = low draw down and low expectancy. Hold out for 150 and have higher draw down and radically improved expectancy. BRV goes into with the math behind what we do. set your SL to break even after 50 pips , and I would wait for one wave to go against you first as well.
\\"You can't loose what you don't put in the middle. Then again... you can't win a whole lot either.\\" Rounders lol

Best wishes,
Jason

PS read brv link http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...t-of-your.html

I've read the Math post a couple of times, it's most astonishing stuff!

I'm interested in what you mention about BRV letting one wave go against the you first... I can just vaguely recall BRV saying that, thank you for the reminder... that in itself is probably a good filter...

But like you say, each trader has to find the level they can live with - very true!!

I'm thinking, as Inz touched upon, that more experience, and as a corollary, more statistics on typical trade win:loss, avg win:avg loss, etc.. will yield the opportunity to analyse ones performance and find out the optimal (and perhaps comfortable) TP, SL, and such...


Thanks,

Magnus
  • #4,586
  • Oct 21, 2008 4:31pm Oct 21, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting Yuppie
Guys, the AU bucket trade that I highlighted this morning seems to be working out quite well... however, I have played it rather poorly...

The chart below shows my entry and exit...

After entry, it went 20+ pips in my favour... then retraced... I exited for +3 pips. The reason I exited was that I didn't want to let it turn into a loser...


There seems to be a fine line between not letting a winner turn into a loser... and giving a trade room to breathe...


Any comment on this trade, or giving trades room to 'breathe'?


Thanks,

Magnus
Magnus, just a reminder to help myself and the community, but this it is nothing new at all.
In Latin they say: REPETITA JUVANT. In English: repeating is helpful...

1) Prepare your mind for a precise loss you'll accept SMILING and not worring AT ALL
2) Enter small ( 0.1 lot for example) and if it goes underwater add a bit a larger position (0.2 lot)
3) Calculate a large stop for the small position and a tighter stop for the larger position

Good luck and KUDOS to our beloved Master BRV
  • #4,587
  • Oct 21, 2008 4:48pm Oct 21, 2008 4:48pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting dorellino
Magnus, just a reminder to help myself and the community, but this it is nothing new at all.
In Latin they say: REPETITA JUVANT. In English: repeating is helpful...

1) Prepare your mind for a precise loss you'll accept SMILING and not worring AT ALL
2) Enter small ( 0.1 lot for example) and if it goes underwater add a bit a larger position (0.2 lot)
3) Calculate a large stop for the small position and a tighter stop for the larger position

Good luck and KUDOS to our beloved Master BRV

REPETITA JUVANT... I like that...

I am in agreement with #1 in your post...

#2 I'm not too sure about as it is averaging-down which is generally held to be a big taboo - and for good reason!... However, as part of a proven trading plan, it may work for No-Brainer style high-prob trades...

#3 I think is dependant on each situation. But yeah, I agree in that it keeps %Risk the same...


Cheers,

Magnus
  • #4,588
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:16pm Oct 21, 2008 5:16pm
BillyRay, how did you come up with 1.6650 level? Even on W1 there are some nearby levels which look similar - but 1.6650 has been hit TO THE PIP a couple of hours ago...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,589
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:24pm Oct 21, 2008 5:24pm
Quoting Forex007
BillyRay, how did you come up with 1.6650 level? Even on W1 there are some nearby levels which look similar - but 1.6650 has been hit TO THE PIP a couple of hours ago...
He will never tell us that , it is like asking CocaCola for their drink recipe!
  • #4,590
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:27pm Oct 21, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting Forex007
BillyRay, how did you come up with 1.6650 level? Even on W1 there are some nearby levels which look similar - but 1.6650 has been hit TO THE PIP a couple of hours ago...
I am trying to work out how he managed that as well..... and apart from it being a 'roundish number' I cannot work out how he nailed that one !

BRV .... "The Master" does it again !

  • #4,591
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:43pm Oct 21, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting Yuppie
REPETITA JUVANT... I like that...

I am in agreement with #1 in your post...

#2 I'm not too sure about as it is averaging-down which is generally held to be a big taboo - and for good reason!... However, as part of a proven trading plan, it may work for No-Brainer style high-prob trades...

#3 I think is dependant on each situation. But yeah, I agree in that it keeps %Risk the same...


Cheers,

Magnus
I don't think there is inherently wrong with averaging down if it is part of your plan to scale into a position, so if S/R kicks in early you get some of the move, but there is definitely something wrong if you are adding to losers to bring your average down and hoping it will go back in your direction.

Noobs lose. Many of the things they do (mainly for psychological preservation) are exactly the opposite of what they should be doing - they close out profitable trades early and let losers run or even worse they add to losers. Close out your losers early, get stuck into a good trade then you can stack trades, as long as you don't get carried away or married to the trade, you can make some great profits this way.


Yuppie, may I commend you on your excellent bucket graphics. If trading doesn't work out for you, a great future in the bucket design industry surely awaits. How about closing out half of your position on the first thrust, or on the first sign of reversal. Some sort of science is needed to predict where the optimum point of exit on the first thrust is. I would never recommend cluttering up your charts but perhaps some sort of Bollinger band on a lower time frame could help with this dilemma, as price will often find some S/R there, or look for prior consolidation areas on the left of your chart. With these banked profits, you can use them to buy a bit more breathing space on the stop for the remaining portion of the position so in net terms you are closed out at break even (say you closed out 1st half at +30 you can set b/e to -30 on other half). I have looked into this in some detail - it probably does not mathematically pay to close out half of your position early in the long run, but when you consider issues of drawdown on strings of losses and your psychological welfare I reckon it just about evens out.
  • #4,592
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:56pm Oct 21, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting Willowgal
I am trying to work out how he managed that as well..... and apart from it being a 'roundish number' I cannot work out how he nailed that one !

BRV .... \"The Master\" does it again !

Heres where he got it.....Prior price action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #4,593
  • Oct 21, 2008 9:23pm Oct 21, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting jlmac27
Heres where he got it.....Prior price action
That's was my question - 1.6650 doesn't sit exactly on prior key points (1.6620 or even 1.6600 looked a more likely level)...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,594
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:50am Oct 22, 2008 12:50am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting birdt
I don't think there is inherently wrong with averaging down if it is part of your plan to scale into a position, so if S/R kicks in early you get some of the move, but there is definitely something wrong if you are adding to losers to bring your average down and hoping it will go back in your direction.

Noobs lose. Many of the things they do (mainly for psychological preservation) are exactly the opposite of what they should be doing - they close out profitable trades early and let losers run or even worse they add to losers. Close out your losers early, get stuck into a good trade then you can stack trades, as long as you don't get carried away or married to the trade, you can make some great profits this way.


Yuppie, may I commend you on your excellent bucket graphics. If trading doesn't work out for you, a great future in the bucket design industry surely awaits. How about closing out half of your position on the first thrust, or on the first sign of reversal. Some sort of science is needed to predict where the optimum point of exit on the first thrust is. I would never recommend cluttering up your charts but perhaps some sort of Bollinger band on a lower time frame could help with this dilemma, as price will often find some S/R there, or look for prior consolidation areas on the left of your chart. With these banked profits, you can use them to buy a bit more breathing space on the stop for the remaining portion of the position so in net terms you are closed out at break even (say you closed out 1st half at +30 you can set b/e to -30 on other half). I have looked into this in some detail - it probably does not mathematically pay to close out half of your position early in the long run, but when you consider issues of drawdown on strings of losses and your psychological welfare I reckon it just about evens out.

I'm definately in agreement wth averaging-down - if it's part of your plan, and not just plain old adding-to-a-loser, it could smooth out the equity curve...

and smoothing out the equity curve would also be helped by taking an initial 20-30 pips on a trade and leaving the rest. And, to my mind, smoothing out the equite curve, although almost certainly will prove to be less profitable overall for an individual's trading (it has been proven for BRV's trading), could actually be very most beneficial emotionally/psychologically...

In the chart below is a good example taking profit early... I took 80% off at the first sign of resistance... I think the time of day had something to do with this as well, London was closed, and so didn't expect too much... also, it didn't really register with me at the time, but there had already been a decent bounce off this level around 20-25 pips above... looking back, probably shouldn't have even entered this trade...


Magnus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008-10-21_EU_TRADE_1_1.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4,595
  • Oct 22, 2008 12:57am Oct 22, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Yuppie
I've read the Math post a couple of times, it's most astonishing stuff!

I'm interested in what you mention about BRV letting one wave go against the you first... I can just vaguely recall BRV saying that, thank you for the reminder... that in itself is probably a good filter...

But like you say, each trader has to find the level they can live with - very true!!

I'm thinking, as Inz touched upon, that more experience, and as a corollary, more statistics on typical trade win:loss, avg win:avg loss, etc.. will yield the opportunity to analyse ones performance and find out the optimal (and perhaps comfortable) TP, SL, and such...


Thanks,

Magnus
Hi Magnus,

I would venture to say... these are the type markets to let your winners run a long time. I'm up so much for the month I'm afraid to pull the trigger for fear of losing it all back. It comes down to trusting yourself to do the right thing under any market condition. Guess I will be reading mark Douglas again tonight for the 10,000 time. lol

Let one wave go against you...........A picture says a 1000 words
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abc trend.GIF Size: 44 KB
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,596
  • Oct 22, 2008 2:25am Oct 22, 2008 2:25am
GM BRV and the crew. Hope yall caught this precise bounce on the GBP/JPY a few minutes ago. I was looking @ GBP/USD as it has made a slightly bigger pullback and thought that price might reverse, so i missed this lovely short entry on the Geppy...damn, could have been a nice present in the cold morning... Lesson learned once again - trade your chart. The chart is your bible. Dont trade what you think just read the chart. Period.

Posting a clean chart for you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_5m_s&rsell_211008-2.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #4,597
  • Oct 22, 2008 3:37am Oct 22, 2008 3:37am
Price on Loonie approaching resistance @ around 1.2685 that is the high of 2005
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: loonie_weekly_ppz_2005high_221008.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #4,598
  • Oct 22, 2008 3:42am Oct 22, 2008 3:42am
Quoting Forex007
BillyRay,

Do you consider some odd/stray highs/lows when drawing S/R levels? E.g. the one marked on the enclosed chart - it sits on a distinct level, yet that level was only hit just once.

MANY THANKS!

I do yes; on bigger timeframes again they'll hold more weight; and confluence factors, etc..
  • #4,599
  • Oct 22, 2008 3:50am Oct 22, 2008 3:50am
Quoting Forex007
BillyRay, how did you come up with 1.6650 level? Even on W1 there are some nearby levels which look similar - but 1.6650 has been hit TO THE PIP a couple of hours ago...

It had a pretty good, basic history on a 4hr/daily chart down to the 6640 level. I went with the 50 because you're right, its a round number; when trends are making new lows they usually stall:

at the points that stick out in the opposing uptrend, like explained in the video a little while back, '50' marks, or right before double zeros, if not right at them. The reason before double zeros is due to option protection. Many times people will move to create option barriers to avoid these 00 areas from getting hit before expiration.....just been my experience.
  • #4,600
  • Oct 22, 2008 3:52am Oct 22, 2008 3:52am
Quoting jlmac27
Heres where he got it.....Prior price action

there ya go. thanks jlmac.
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