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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #14,601
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:08am Oct 21, 2008 11:08am
Quoting ghous
Hey Mike,
Do these TBs hold any significance as trend reversal indications? i often watch two similiar lows/highs giving quite a bit of direction against the current trend.

take the examples mentioned in the charts below, the TBs don't appear to be perfect in shape but their occurence on trend reversal points does hold some signifcance, i see these very very often. Can you comment a bit on these...
Yes absolutely. When they occur, this is showing at least a temporary pause in action. So a TBL is showing support and a TBH showing resistance. Sometimes you get a TBL, and the second bar has matching lows and is an inside bar. Or a TBL and a higher close which then gives us a DBLHC. So there are many ways again to skin a cat here. Check out how the after you have a TBL, and say price moves up even for quite some time. When we finally come back and break that former TBL or resistance and continue on. Actually happens over and over

Best
Mike
  • #14,602
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:12am Oct 21, 2008 11:12am
Some good setups are rolling in now on shorter timeframes. Just closed out E/U and U/J 1 hour pins. Good pb's with the trend, doesn't get much prettier than this.
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  • #14,603
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:30am Oct 21, 2008 11:30am
Quoting aSandman
hiya Betard,
Please be careful of the S/R at the 1.6000 area. That's a strong area IMHO and high odds for a bounce. Lines u with 618 from previous daily range. If your trade clears that like a knife threw hot butter....then you be laughing all the way to the bank

Best Wishes,
Jason
Thanks for the heads up guys. I saw that resistance at 1.16 but I'm expecting (maybe wrongly!) a little more than that for a pair that broke out of 2 week range, so I aimed for next potential resistance. I think that usually for a continuation pattern like this, after a breakout it will move up approximately the same as the prior move (1.069-1.12), so we could see 118 pretty easily.
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  • #14,604
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:49am Oct 21, 2008 11:49am
Quoting Betard
Thanks for the heads up guys. I saw that resistance at 1.16 but I'm expecting (maybe wrongly!) a little more than that for a pair that broke out of 2 week range, so I aimed for next potential resistance. I think that usually for a continuation pattern like this, after a breakout it will move up approximately the same as the prior move (1.069-1.12), so we could see 118 pretty easily.
On my feed 4h Pb is forming on top of this 4h megawedge with some nice divergence... at least market is giving us an entry with only approx. 70 pip stoploss ... and not even counting a potential profit
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  • #14,605
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:02pm Oct 21, 2008 12:02pm
Hi Jarroo|Mike|guys,

I am pleased to say I am starting to get some success (on demo) with pin bars on the longer TFs - 5 winners and a B\E trade on my last 6! Its hard not to feel a bit elated sometimes when this stuff works.

However I wanted to ask your opinion about the bearish pin which formed on the GB|JY daily yesterday. I took this trade and closed it out today for some 300 points, one of my biggest winners yet! My reasons for taking this trade were:

1. Pair in a downtrend
2. Fib confluence at 23+38 from previous swing highs
3. Period of retracement\consolidation before next likely swing down
4. Possibility of a retest of the recent lows at 166/67

Was this a high probability tade in your opinion(s)? Sorry, do not know how to post charts from my platform yet! (VT, not MT4). Any comments welcome.
PA is where its at!!
  • #14,606
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:06pm Oct 21, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting bertie123
Hi Jarroo|Mike|guys,

I am pleased to say I am starting to get some success (on demo) with pin bars on the longer TFs - 5 winners and a B\E trade on my last 6! Its hard not to feel a bit elated sometimes when this stuff works.

However I wanted to ask your opinion about the bearish pin which formed on the GB|JY daily yesterday. I took this trade and closed it out today for some 300 points, one of my biggest winners yet! My reasons for taking this trade were:

1. Pair in a downtrend
2. Fib confluence at 23+38 from previous swing highs
3. Period of retracement\consolidation before next likely swing down
4. Possibility of a retest of the recent lows at 166/67

Was this a high probability tade in your opinion(s)? Sorry, do not know how to post charts from my platform yet! (VT, not MT4). Any comments welcome.
Hey Bertie,

Firstly congrats on your success, it is a great feeling when the studying practicing starts to click.

I am a very conservative trader, so for me this is a trade I wouldn't take. Not because it wouldn't give some pips, but just doesn't fit my style. Jarroo might be more likely too.

My reasons for staying out would have been the sideways market the it is located in. This would tend to hold price up at some of the trouble areas(blue box area). Had you been watching your short around this area that would be the time to lock in profit, scale out, move to b/e etc. So overall I think you still played it well as you knew not to get carried away with a trade in traffic.

This is where James would say, if you take a loss on a trade like this you are crazy, because of the location of the bar.

Well done

Mike
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  • #14,607
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:22pm Oct 21, 2008 12:22pm
Mike,

Many thanks for your kind comments. I would like to base my style on yours, ie quite conservative, because most of your comments and insights are usually spot on. My over-riding reason for taking this trade was that it was a pin with the trend, and I was able to watch it closely. I realise that it was in traffic but felt that the probabilities were good whilst realising that it was not an A+ pin bar. Still, to get a winning tade helps the feelgood factor and just encourages me to learn more fom you and all the other good guys here and on J16.

As someone who dabbled a lot on lower TFs, I am starting to enjoy trading the longer TFs and would recommend this stuff to any newbie!

Best wishes to all and good trading,

Bertie
PA is where its at!!
  • #14,608
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:37pm Oct 21, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting bertie123
Mike,

Many thanks for your kind comments. I would like to base my style on yours, ie quite conservative, because most of your comments and insights are usually spot on. My over-riding reason for taking this trade was that it was a pin with the trend, and I was able to watch it closely. I realise that it was in traffic but felt that the probabilities were good whilst realising that it was not an A+ pin bar. Still, to get a winning tade helps the feelgood factor and just encourages me to learn more fom you and all the other good guys here and on J16.

As someone who dabbled a lot on lower TFs, I am starting to enjoy trading the longer TFs and would recommend this stuff to any newbie!

Best wishes to all and good trading,

Bertie
Here is what I would be looking for in terms of still trading with the trend, but being in a better overall area for price action. I want to see a pullback to the purple horizontal former support area, and then price action around the Rex X. I drew some fibs to show some extra confluence in this area (61.8% of the smaller and 38.2 of the larger).

Keep up the good trading bertie

Mike
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  • #14,609
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:54pm Oct 21, 2008 12:54pm
Look at dollar/cad fly. This is the only inside bar i will ever take . . . the one's that look like pinbars. The target looks like 127, which is right at the 900 day ema.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #14,610
  • Oct 21, 2008 1:01pm Oct 21, 2008 1:01pm
Look at dollar/cad fly. This is the only inside bar i will ever take . . . the one's that look like pinbars. The target looks like 127, which is right at the 900 day ema. Didn't mean for the double post. Sorry.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #14,611
  • Oct 21, 2008 2:49pm Oct 21, 2008 2:49pm
nice daily Pin Forming @ PivotZone

what do u think?
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  • #14,612
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:02pm Oct 21, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting AidanPryde
nice daily Pin Forming @ PivotZone

what do u think?
I wouldn't short the dollar personally. CHF is strong at the moment but dollar has taken out lows v GBP and EUR today.

My 2 cents.

FXP
  • #14,613
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:11pm Oct 21, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I wouldn't short the dollar personally. CHF is strong at the moment but dollar has taken out lows v GBP and EUR today.

My 2 cents.

FXP

ur right..but from a price action perspective this is an A longterm trade in my books..if governments "suceed" and equities rally for a time before falling into the abyss the dollar should tank against the swissy at least..

thx for ur input bro!

i am open for more
  • #14,614
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:27pm Oct 21, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting AidanPryde
ur right..but from a price action perspective this is an A longterm trade in my books..if governments \\"suceed\\" and equities rally for a time before falling into the abyss the dollar should tank against the swissy at least..

thx for ur input bro!

i am open for more

Forgot to post this (Dollar index weekly chart). The reason I would not short the dollar :-)
I am trying to avoid CT trades and it is certainly working out better for me but everyone has their own style.
cheers

FXP
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  • #14,615
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:36pm Oct 21, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Forgot to post this (Dollar index weekly chart). The reason I would not short the dollar :-)
I am trying to avoid CT trades and it is certainly working out better for me but everyone has their own style.
cheers

FXP
yes i don*t like ct trades too..

but for me this is with the weekly trend i am a dollar bear..my fault lol

Have a great week!
  • #14,616
  • Oct 21, 2008 6:03pm Oct 21, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting AidanPryde
ur right..but from a price action perspective this is an A longterm trade in my books..if governments \\\"suceed\\\" and equities rally for a time before falling into the abyss the dollar should tank against the swissy at least..

thx for ur input bro!

i am open for more
Hi Aidan,

That pin is very short when you compare it to the price bars leading up to it. That's reason one to be weary.

Reason two , the price action is returning to the resistance line that was broken the past day or so. I've spoken recently about being mindful of these types of pins that are just retracements.

Check out your four hour chart.

When a chart looks like creating a new signal, but doesn't quite 'cut the mustard', so to speak, you can draw a trend line to watch for later on. In my chart I've gone to the 4 hour time frame and drawn the Magenta/Pink trend line.

For now I'm expecting this to break the weekly trend line (Yellow). ....I won't consider a short until I get a signal that brings us to the other side of that Magenta/Pink trend line.

If the chart was looking a little cleaner these past few bars you could have waited for a good continuation signal off of the blue line.

For now I'm not sure what I will be watching for, but good PA off the top of the yellow line would be handy. Another possibility on the Daily chart is today's bar forming part of an BUOB or Two Bar Low Higher Close that closes above the yellow line strongly. ...Anyway you can see clearly on the four hour why taking a short using that pin of yours would be suicidal. Watch for stronger Pins. And most importantly make sure you have that space around it for your trade to move into.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,617
  • Oct 21, 2008 8:37pm Oct 21, 2008 8:37pm
Thank you very much for ur detailed analysis..!!

really great !

USD/CHF didn't form a pin so I am siting and waiting
  • #14,618
  • Oct 22, 2008 2:18am Oct 22, 2008 2:18am
I keep missing these when they happen. Inside 4 Bar on the E/J 1 Hour.

First one I've caught in a long time. lol

I've been trying to avoid posting set ups below the 4 hour. This is too good of an example.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,619
  • Edited 3:43am Oct 22, 2008 2:36am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting bundyraider
I keep missing these when they happen. Inside 4 Bar on the E/J 1 Hour.

First one I've caught in a long time. lol

I've been trying to avoid posting set ups below the 4 hour. This is too good of an example.
And reverse trade on other side. ...Happy to do so on one like this.

Edit: Take half profit at bottom. Moved stop loss half way to BE

Next Edit: Stopped out... ...It's about now I get a complex about posting set ups. lol
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,620
  • Oct 22, 2008 7:40am Oct 22, 2008 7:40am
saw a PB in EUR/JPY H1 TF.... didn't take it as it is counter trend...



Sonic
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