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  • #4,461
  • Oct 20, 2008 4:55am Oct 20, 2008 4:55am
Hi Billy Ray your article on trading once again invaluable. In keeping with mastering a trading system, I have started to identify s/r better to trade off of and have even identified some which you also recommend. However I am not sure if our reasons correlate and was hoping you could perhaps show your reasons for identifying your buy sell levels on say one currency pair (maybe eur/usd as this is where I was consistent with you), this way if we as traders have identified the same levels for the same reasons we can grow some confidence.

Hope I am not asking to much (If so feel free to be direct) p*** off is quite succint

Rob

As a example I saw eur usd hourly support at 1.3534 from 03.00 on 15th Oct and you stated sell at 1.3533 for today. was yours based on this same support awaiting retest from below ???
  • #4,462
  • Oct 20, 2008 5:10am Oct 20, 2008 5:10am
Hi Grath,

I think we are both in the same stage of progress as I could not have put it better myself !

I am sure we all realise that THIS thread contains pretty much everything we need to know to develop into profitable traders, yet, a lot of us are still struggling as it is the TRADE EXECUTION that is so hard to transfer from theory into practice.... ie. what exact procedure to go through when a level is approached - I know a lot of it is 'experience' and 'gut feel' but any other precise suggestions anyone?

Anyone ?? We are eagerly listening

Thanks.

Quoting Grath
I am still in the early learning stage. I am charting the 4 majors and finding S/R levels (and checking them against BRV's buy and sell areas in the blog posts). I am also finding and marking up bucket bottoms.

Having lost a small equity stake doing that last week, I am starting again with another (small) stake. But I've found I now don't have the confidence to trade the levels. I need to move to the next stage in the learning process - how to interpret the price action I see as the price approaches and gets to a marked level.

I watch on the M5 chart; should I be on the M1?

Sometimes, the price line jumps up and down a few pips quite rapidly. Sometimes it just gets to the marked level in a slow progression. (If I see it absolutely charging up, I always assume it will break through.) Sometimes, the price gets to the level, messes about, up and down, for a while and then retraces and, of course, I have not opened a position and I watch 20, 30 and sometimes 100 pips drain away that I should have been in.

How about when the level has been visited just recently and this is the second time it's been approached?

I know if I sit and watch the charts for the next couple of years, take it all in and manage to remember the important bits, then I might improve as a NB Trader. Can anyone offer insights/advice on how I might start interpreting price action quicker than that?

This seems to me to be an essential part of the NB Trades training - but please tell me if I got that wrong.
  • #4,463
  • Oct 20, 2008 5:19am Oct 20, 2008 5:19am
Quoting Grath
I am still in the early learning stage. I am charting the 4 majors and finding S/R levels (and checking them against BRV's buy and sell areas in the blog posts). I am also finding and marking up bucket bottoms.

Having lost a small equity stake doing that last week, I am starting again with another (small) stake. But I've found I now don't have the confidence to trade the levels. I need to move to the next stage in the learning process - how to interpret the price action I see as the price approaches and gets to a marked level.

I watch on the M5 chart; should I be on the M1?

Sometimes, the price line jumps up and down a few pips quite rapidly. Sometimes it just gets to the marked level in a slow progression. (If I see it absolutely charging up, I always assume it will break through.) Sometimes, the price gets to the level, messes about, up and down, for a while and then retraces and, of course, I have not opened a position and I watch 20, 30 and sometimes 100 pips drain away that I should have been in.

How about when the level has been visited just recently and this is the second time it's been approached?

I know if I sit and watch the charts for the next couple of years, take it all in and manage to remember the important bits, then I might improve as a NB Trader. Can anyone offer insights/advice on how I might start interpreting price action quicker than that?

This seems to me to be an essential part of the NB Trades training - but please tell me if I got that wrong.
Pick a logical method (or several), and then test it (them). Write a trade plan to follow. Take screenshots and record all your trades in a journal. You won't learn much trading live without writing stuff down, too many emotions at play that will distort your ability to see things for what they really are. I'd say prove yourself on demo before putting your money on the line. Sounds boring but you know it is the right thing to do. That is, if you want to join the 2%..... As you say, you might pick it up over a couple of years but have you got the capital, patience and discipline for that? Take it more seriously and be true to yourself, only then can you accelerate your learning to the next level.
  • #4,464
  • Oct 20, 2008 5:29am Oct 20, 2008 5:29am
Quoting birdt
Pick a logical method (or several), and then test it (them).
Thanks for responding, birdt. You've hit the nail right on the head! Pick a logical method. Both Willowgal and I are looking for help to find a method of interpreting the price action. We don't know where to look, so it's difficult to pick one.
  • #4,465
  • Oct 20, 2008 5:37am Oct 20, 2008 5:37am
Quoting birdt
I'd say prove yourself on demo before putting your money on the line. Sounds boring but you know it is the right thing to do.
OK. That's well-meaning advice and taken as such. Thanks.

But I'm going to be obstinate and go with something BRV said in his recent 'Something Different' post about habits..... Again, we are building a profitable trading habit, nothing more. And don’t use “demo account” money or simulated trading. Nothing hurts more than the loss of real cash, even if it is only one dollar here or there.
  • #4,466
  • Edited 5:49am Oct 20, 2008 5:40am | Edited 5:49am
Quoting Willowgal
Hi Grath,

I think we are both in the same stage of progress as I could not have put it better myself !

I am sure we all realise that THIS thread contains pretty much everything we need to know to develop into profitable traders, yet, a lot of us are still struggling as it is the TRADE EXECUTION that is so hard to transfer from theory into practice.... ie. what exact procedure to go through when a level is approached - I know a lot of it is 'experience' and 'gut feel' but any other precise suggestions anyone?

Anyone ?? We are eagerly listening

Thanks.
Morning Gareth, got your mail and replied last night.

Hi Grath I am with you too on this part. Execution is equally as difficult as identifying the trades not just mentally but in terms of judging wether to be in or not.
I also used 5 and 1 min TF's last week to enter trades on but I wonder if I was just deluding myself because they happened to work out ok.

One pearl of wisdom I once heard was the saying:
"I am either right or I am out";
meaning place the trade at the identified level set your stop loss and accept the result. In a fast paced day trading arena trading various pairs, this seems almost the only way I guess.
I heard from the same source of a platform showing buy sell pressure, supposedly giving an advantage at identified levels but I have no experience of it's effectiveness.

Good trading to everyone

Rob

Sorry Grath just corrected your name spelling
  • #4,467
  • Oct 20, 2008 6:16am Oct 20, 2008 6:16am
BRV very good explainations , thanks

I'm active in trading USDJPY... altough i'm doing quite well now... i still need some guidance... can you explain more about this currency and what are informations/strategies you'll look for before trading this currency...

Thanks
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #4,468
  • Oct 20, 2008 7:20am Oct 20, 2008 7:20am
Quoting Grath
OK. That's well-meaning advice and taken as such. Thanks.

But I'm going to be obstinate and go with something BRV said in his recent 'Something Different' post about habits..... Again, we are building a profitable trading habit, nothing more. And don’t use “demo account” money or simulated trading. Nothing hurts more than the loss of real cash, even if it is only one dollar here or there.

That's fair enough, there is no substitute for live trading - just so emotions aren't so prevalent that they are distorting your ability to learn. Blowing account after account chasing systems that are untested is the sort of thing I have little sympathy for. When doing preliminary testing on entry methods and strategies, it may be worth using a demo account at first as it is purely an investigative, fact-finding exercise. If the act of trading live funds is moving your mind it may be difficult to assess whether it is the shortcomings of yourself as a trader or the methodology upon which your strategy is based is flawed, leading you to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

I get the impression that BRV bases his entries upon momentum leading up to the levels and is able to 'read the tape' effectively, allowing him to be "up 20 pips when others are thinking about getting in". It may be the case that being able to interpret each tick like a computer will allow the greatest profit potential. I would suggest that this early entry method would adversely effect the success% but this is not reflected in BRV's results. I would say that this is more due to his skill and experience in the method than anything else, although he might be too modest to admit it. Still, opportunities abound if you stick to the more significant levels and study good old price action. I like to see 5m/15m 1-2-3's and double tops, 15m abandoned baby reversal patterns (probably thrown out with the bathwater), morning and evening stars, doji's and hammers.
  • #4,469
  • Oct 20, 2008 7:54am Oct 20, 2008 7:54am
Quoting birdt
That's fair enough, there is no substitute for live trading - just so emotions aren't so prevalent that they are distorting your ability to learn. Blowing account after account chasing systems that are untested is the sort of thing I have little sympathy for. When doing preliminary testing on entry methods and strategies, it may be worth using a demo account at first as it is purely an investigative, fact-finding exercise. If the act of trading live funds is moving your mind it may be difficult to assess whether it is the shortcomings of yourself as a trader or the methodology upon which your strategy is based is flawed, leading you to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

I get the impression that BRV bases his entries upon momentum leading up to the levels and is able to 'read the tape' effectively, allowing him to be \"up 20 pips when others are thinking about getting in\". It may be the case that being able to interpret each tick like a computer will allow the greatest profit potential. I would suggest that this early entry method would adversely effect the success% but this is not reflected in BRV's results. I would say that this is more due to his skill and experience in the method than anything else, although he might be too modest to admit it. Still, opportunities abound if you stick to the more significant levels and study good old price action. I like to see 5m/15m 1-2-3's and double tops, 15m abandoned baby reversal patterns (probably thrown out with the bathwater), morning and evening stars, doji's and hammers.
Hi birdt,

Can I just confirm your last sentence? morning and evening stars,doji's and hammers are you using these on the 5 and 15 min timeframes????

thanks

Rob
  • #4,470
  • Oct 20, 2008 8:43am Oct 20, 2008 8:43am
Did E/U jus hit the support at 1.3332????

can anyone comment pls?
  • #4,471
  • Oct 20, 2008 8:59am Oct 20, 2008 8:59am
any thoughts about this reversal soon ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf daily.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #4,472
  • Oct 20, 2008 9:04am Oct 20, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Knightz
Did E/U jus hit the support at 1.3332????

can anyone comment pls?
Pretty likely - it is bang on 61.8% fib on daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #4,473
  • Edited 9:58am Oct 20, 2008 9:47am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting Knightz
Did E/U jus hit the support at 1.3332????

can anyone comment pls?
Yeah i'm in, no big drawdown for now, SL @round 1.3292, waiting for rebounce. And don't beleive in a new low td, since Bernake will speak tm. We'll see.

-----------------------

For now, to follow BRV thread, here some usefull psychology already propose:
Mark Douglas: trading in the Zone

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=20
  • #4,474
  • Oct 20, 2008 9:49am Oct 20, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Willowgal
Pretty likely - it is bang on 61.8% fib on daily
still goin down... =(
  • #4,475
  • Oct 20, 2008 10:18am Oct 20, 2008 10:18am
Quoting Willowgal
Pretty likely - it is bang on 61.8% fib on daily

this level was tested and it will be probably broken. I am looking too 61.8% fib, but my starting point date is 22.10.2000. And that level is around 1.3047, which has good history of resistance.

One more argument is that sometimes i try to guess fib levels on currently active slope. Just try to draw fib on currently unfinished downhill, this imaginery fib fits perfectly to all levels
draw from 100% 1.6030 to 0% 1.3047
Drawing fib levels in advance can sometimes reveal rebound points with good accuracy.
  • #4,476
  • Oct 20, 2008 10:21am Oct 20, 2008 10:21am
Back to 1.3332
If you enter at 1.3300, you haven't lost ur time, and money....
  • #4,477
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:08pm Oct 20, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting Grath
I am still in the early learning stage. I am charting the 4 majors and finding S/R levels (and checking them against BRV's buy and sell areas in the blog posts). I am also finding and marking up bucket bottoms.

Having lost a small equity stake doing that last week, I am starting again with another (small) stake. But I've found I now don't have the confidence to trade the levels. I need to move to the next stage in the learning process - how to interpret the price action I see as the price approaches and gets to a marked level.

I watch on the M5 chart; should I be on the M1?
Sometimes, the price line jumps up and down a few pips quite rapidly. Sometimes it just gets to the marked level in a slow progression. (If I see it absolutely charging up, I always assume it will break through.) Sometimes, the price gets to the level, messes about, up and down, for a while and then retraces and, of course, I have not opened a position and I watch 20, 30 and sometimes 100 pips drain away that I should have been in.

How about when the level has been visited just recently and this is the second time it's been approached?

I know if I sit and watch the charts for the next couple of years, take it all in and manage to remember the important bits, then I might improve as a NB Trader. Can anyone offer insights/advice on how I might start interpreting price action quicker than that?

This seems to me to be an essential part of the NB Trades training - but please tell me if I got that wrong.
Hi Grath and Willow to, I can't stand it anymore so I have to respond. I posted 179.00 level for a short. I took a small loss. I realized I got out to soon and got back in. See chart below. Nothing magic, just watching the tape and recognizing that I had been shook out. I have watched markets obsessively for 8 years. I am just now coming into my own. Listen to Billy Ray and BirdT. THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. You are either willing to put in the work or your not. You are either willing to treat this as a business or your not. If it takes two or three years 6 to 16 hours a day 5 days a week before you are profitable is it worth it to you? Also your on M5 and M1 the hardest time frames on earth to trade. Trade the weekly's and daily's. But odds are you won't because your in a big HURRY. Do you know who your trading against? The sharpest minds on earth. Not only that the most well capitalized minds on earth. But as new traders we think that "hey! I read "xyz" and been looking at charts for 3 months and now I'm going to beat hardcore processionals with 1000 times more money and years and years of experience and not only that I'm going to make a million in year with my little 5k account!" I'm not trying to be ugly, because I was once JUST LIKE THAT. I'm trying give you a moment of pause. Why not trade with a mini account ... you all ready have psychological damage , its why your afraid to pull the trigger. So... new plan , if you plan on trading 10k then open a 1k account. Set limits. 3 trades a week. Thats it. Risk per trade .005%. ie you will risk only $5 on each trade. Further you will not go to the full account until you have months of consistency( profitable trading). Does not sound much fun does it? Sounds like it would take a lot of discipline to follow that plan. If you don't have the discipline to follow a $5 plan.....what are the odds you will be able to manage a $50 dollar trade or a $500 trade?
The markets will be here forever, take your time.

Best wishes
Jason
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: brv 2.gif Size: 23 KB
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,478
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:38pm Oct 20, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting aSandman
Hi Grath and Willow to, I can't stand it anymore so I have to respond. I posted 179.00 level for a short. I took a small loss. I realized I got out to soon and got back in. See chart below. Nothing magic, just watching the tape and recognizing that I had been shook out. I have watched markets obsessively for 8 years. I am just now coming into my own. Listen to Billy Ray and BirdT. THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. You are either willing to put in the work or your not. You are either willing to treat this as a business or your not. If it takes two or three years 6 to 16 hours a day 5 days a week before you are profitable is it worth it to you? Also your on M5 and M1 the hardest time frames on earth to trade. Trade the weekly's and daily's. But odds are you won't because your in a big HURRY. Do you know who your trading against? The sharpest minds on earth. Not only that the most well capitalized minds on earth. But as new traders we think that \"hey! I read \"xyz\" and been looking at charts for 3 months and now I'm going to beat hardcore processionals with 1000 times more money and years and years of experience and not only that I'm going to make a million in year with my little 5k account!\" I'm not trying to be ugly, because I was once JUST LIKE THAT. I'm trying give you a moment of pause. Why not trade with a mini account ... you all ready have psychological damage , its why your afraid to pull the trigger. So... new plan , if you plan on trading 10k then open a 1k account. Set limits. 3 trades a week. Thats it. Risk per trade .005%. ie you will risk only $5 on each trade. Further you will not go to the full account until you have months of consistency( profitable trading). Does not sound much fun does it? Sounds like it would take a lot of discipline to follow that plan. If you don't have the discipline to follow a $5 plan.....what are the odds you will be able to manage a $50 dollar trade or a $500 trade?
The markets will be here forever, take your time.

Best wishes
Jason
Yep, dear G&W, Jason is freaking right!
He is just telling you that your Forex market workshop could be much less expensive than mine (many thousands) and probably Jason's too.
If you'll follow his advise.
Otherwise welcome to the $10/20/30/40/50 thousands trading course
With love
Max
  • #4,479
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:48pm Oct 20, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting aSandman
Hi Grath and Willow to, I can't stand it anymore so I have to respond. I posted 179.00 level for a short. I took a small loss. I realized I got out to soon and got back in. See chart below. Nothing magic, just watching the tape and recognizing that I had been shook out. I have watched markets obsessively for 8 years. I am just now coming into my own. Listen to Billy Ray and BirdT. THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. You are either willing to put in the work or your not. You are either willing to treat this as a business or your not. If it takes two or three years 6 to 16 hours a day 5 days a week before you are profitable is it worth it to you? Also your on M5 and M1 the hardest time frames on earth to trade. Trade the weekly's and daily's. But odds are you won't because your in a big HURRY. Do you know who your trading against? The sharpest minds on earth. Not only that the most well capitalized minds on earth. But as new traders we think that \\\"hey! I read \\\"xyz\\\" and been looking at charts for 3 months and now I'm going to beat hardcore processionals with 1000 times more money and years and years of experience and not only that I'm going to make a million in year with my little 5k account!\\\" I'm not trying to be ugly, because I was once JUST LIKE THAT. I'm trying give you a moment of pause. Why not trade with a mini account ... you all ready have psychological damage , its why your afraid to pull the trigger. So... new plan , if you plan on trading 10k then open a 1k account. Set limits. 3 trades a week. Thats it. Risk per trade .005%. ie you will risk only $5 on each trade. Further you will not go to the full account until you have months of consistency( profitable trading). Does not sound much fun does it? Sounds like it would take a lot of discipline to follow that plan. If you don't have the discipline to follow a $5 plan.....what are the odds you will be able to manage a $50 dollar trade or a $500 trade?
The markets will be here forever, take your time.

Best wishes
Jason
Hi Jason,

I appreciate what you are saying, but I am sure NO-ONE is looking for short-cuts, just advice to help the learning curve become a trend.

Also, maybe, to be pointed in the right direction as far as what is worth studying, rather than wasting time with the cr*p that is all over 99% of most other Forex threads (this site not included of course )

Regards,
Willow

PS - Nice call on your GBPJPY trade mate !
  • #4,480
  • Oct 20, 2008 12:52pm Oct 20, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting Grath
I am a green newbie so please don't mind my question. I have been searching my charts to identify strong S/R levels and always choosing the tip of the candle's wick as the level to go for. Is that wrong? Should I be separating the wicks out and using just the closing levels?
Thx
Hey grath, use the full length of the candle. Tops and bottoms are all the same no matter how the candle or bar gets displayed. Maybe its the levels themselves? Your entries might be varied.
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