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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,081
  • Oct 18, 2008 5:14pm Oct 18, 2008 5:14pm
And another question: I read somewhere that there are periods of "revaluing", like central bank talks, when major banks revalue currency pairs against one another. Do these periods coincide with the really huge trends that occur so rarely with the EUR/CHF? And is there any way to avoid those trends by looking at fundamentals? Just throwing around some ideas here, maybe someone will use that to find something interesting.
  • #2,082
  • Oct 19, 2008 5:20am Oct 19, 2008 5:20am
Period of revaluating and window dressing are end of year .

The last 3 weeks we get extreme volatility on markets and currencies ( ATR of eur/usd has been 3 times historical ATR) and the system remained strong with profit trades.

Just follow a strong money management and results will come by themself.

In 2008 i had Zero loss with this system so far.
Zero does not mean zero trade with a loss but means zero TRADE with a loss.
a TRADE is a serie of trades and since the serie is not closed the TRADE remains open .
Trade safe
  • #2,083
  • Oct 19, 2008 5:42am Oct 19, 2008 5:42am
Thanks, Spieler. That makes sense. The last couple of weeks have been very profitable indeed using this system.
  • #2,084
  • Oct 20, 2008 3:32am Oct 20, 2008 3:32am
Good Morning Everyone,

Monday again! Well I hope these coming weeks will see more stability in the markets. I know volatibility is good for this system but sometimes it can be tough.

Well EURCHF has been moving north a little, the stock markets in Europe are up too...

So I have 2 position open (I am still trading the Cross instead of the hedge):

-First one is a short at around 15319 which is approx 37% decorelation from a close at 15256

-Second one is a short too at 15336 which is a little more than 50% decorelation

I am seeing some recoleration and my trades are positive by now, but we will have to see if the recoleratioj goes further or if we have to open more short position...

Well Gents have a great trading day
BD
  • #2,085
  • Edited 7:27am Oct 20, 2008 4:06am | Edited 7:27am
1st short at 1,5317

closed at 1,5277
  • #2,086
  • Edited 5:49am Oct 20, 2008 4:52am | Edited 5:49am
Entered first short at 1.5339

Edit: exited at 1.5301, at -0.25 from entry.
  • #2,087
  • Edited Oct 22, 2008 1:55am Oct 21, 2008 2:35am | Edited Oct 22, 2008 1:55am
1st long at 1,5276

2nd long at 1,5220

3rd long at 1,5136

... what a volatility .. I actually missed my 3rd entry at 1,5160 because I haven't been at the computer for a while.

4th long at 1,5050, double

5th long at 1,4910, double

the last two positions should get a profitable exit, I hope

at least we're interest positive


5th closed at 1,5015
  • #2,088
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:34am Oct 21, 2008 3:34am
Quoting ashes
1st short at 1,5276

2nd would be around 1,5220

Hello Ashes,

I am still reading the thread and almost finished, sorry if my question sound inapropriate.

Why are you going short? we are lower than the Open. Shouldn't you go long instead or are you going with the trend?

I thought we should go long if price was under the open, and short when price is above.

Many thanks for your answear.
  • #2,089
  • Oct 21, 2008 5:35am Oct 21, 2008 5:35am
Quoting NewbieFxFx
Hello Ashes,

I am still reading the thread and almost finished, sorry if my question sound inapropriate.

Why are you going short? we are lower than the Open. Shouldn't you go long instead or are you going with the trend?

I thought we should go long if price was under the open, and short when price is above.

Many thanks for your answear.
Hi,

my mistake, I mean long, just corrected it.

Regards
  • #2,090
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:14am Oct 21, 2008 11:14am
i'm long 3 position set .wAITING FOR MARKET TO COME BACK
  • #2,091
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:25am Oct 21, 2008 11:25am
aNY ONE HAVE THE SAME POSITIONS?
  • #2,092
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:27am Oct 21, 2008 11:27am
The EA opened orders, long EURUSD and USDCHF @ -50%
  • #2,093
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:30am Oct 21, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Richard
Guys-

It’s great that you are putting the effort in with the back testing but none of you are following the rules of the system.

Spieler is away this week so too busy to post and as I have been trading this system live for a while now I am going to try and help out by posting the entries/exits made during the period you are trying to back test following the rules of the system.

Starting from the 7th August.

Lot1 - Entry Long @ 1.6289
Lot2 - Entry Long @ 1.6227
Lot3 - Entry Long @ 1.6158
Exit Lot 3 - @ 1.6198 + 40 pips externalized profit
Lot3 – Re-entry Long @ 1.6118
Exit Lot 3 - @ 1.6158 + 40 pips externalized profit
Lot3 – Re-entry Long @ 1.6115
Exit Lot 3 - @ 1.6145 + 40 pips externalized profit
Lot3 – Re-entry Long @ 1.6045
Exit Lot 3 - @ 1.6105 + 40 pips externalized profit
Lot3 – Re-entry Long @ 1.6012
Lot4 - Entry Long @ 1.5932
Lot5 - Entry Long @ 1.5852
Exit Lot 5 - @ 1.5892 + 40 pips externalized profit
Exit Lot 4 - @ 1.6066 + 134 pips externalized profit
Exit Lot 3 - @ 1.6066 + 54 pips externalized profit
Lot3 – Re-entry Long @ 1.5986
Lot4 – Re-entry Long @ 1.5906
Exit Lot 4 - @ 1.5946 + 40 pips externalized profit
Awaiting re-entry of Lot4 @ 1.5799

During the above period there were many opportunities to close the whole position at a very decent overall profit and start again the next day at zero. This of course is the whole idea of Spieler’s strategy. However, if you decided for some reason not to do that and to continue suffering the DD from the earliest opened lots instead, then above is where you would be right now. Position would still be up over 100 pips.
Hello Richard,
sorry but if I understood correctly Hello Richard,
sorry but if I understood correctly, by conservative approach means to take as a reference for an intraday movement the closing price of each new day instead of the price of entry / exit (if it is a re-entry after a pull back!)...
thanks, regards.
  • #2,094
  • Oct 21, 2008 11:37am Oct 21, 2008 11:37am
Spieler,

This system can be applied to different pairs. If i'm interested in hedging GPBJPY with EURJPY, I should be looking for divergence in EUR/GBP?

When the divergence is +25% do I long GBPJPY and short EURJPY, or vice versa? These two pairs have positive correlation.

All of the other rules stay the same, i'm interested in the correct entry when the price divergence is positive or negative, i.e +25% +50% or -25%, -50%. Can you please briefly explain how you determine the correct entry with either long/short or short/long in GBPJPY and EURJPY when the divergence is positive or negative.

Thanks,
  • #2,095
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:08pm Oct 21, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting efrainfx
aNY ONE HAVE THE SAME POSITIONS?

I have three positions. Earlier I had three, managed to close one with a profit, and now I have three again.
  • #2,096
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:16pm Oct 21, 2008 12:16pm
NOW IS -1.30% SHOULD I ENTER THE 4 POSITION?
Thank you.
  • #2,097
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:17pm Oct 21, 2008 12:17pm
1st Hedge: Long @ -50% with EURUSD:1.3106 and USDCHF:1.1589
2nd Hedge: Long @-75% with EURUSD:1.3112 and USDCHF:1.1552
  • #2,098
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:19pm Oct 21, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting efrainfx
NOW IS -1.30% SHOULD I ENTER THE 4 POSITION?
Thank you.

I will enter mine at -1.50% and probably a little bit lower than that.
  • #2,099
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:22pm Oct 21, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting pipsalot
I will enter mine at -1.50% and probably a little bit lower than that.
How are you reading -1.5% and -1.3%? Is this a reading from previous 1-2 days?
  • #2,100
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:23pm Oct 21, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting efrainfx
NOW IS -1.30% SHOULD I ENTER THE 4 POSITION?
Thank you.
are your other 3 positions all negative in profit?
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