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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,321
  • Feb 26, 2007 7:26pm Feb 26, 2007 7:26pm
Is anyone still short the cable?
I went short yesterday at 1.9630 with a SL at 1.9680.
  • #1,322
  • Feb 26, 2007 7:27pm Feb 26, 2007 7:27pm
You'll have to give me some tips on one handed typing...I have a little girl on the way...about 2 months away!

I think Phillip is right about emotion starting to build...I was looking at the GBP/USD daily chart and this image jumped out at me. Any comments would be appreciated on what others see. I see a Bullish Ascending Triangle forming...which would contradict my previous post about the 1.9650 area.

Quoting DireXiv
i believe phillip commente awhile back aboy how the emotion is starting to buld up... so nice observation twoelev..... forgive my typing.... one handed, holding little gilr, so my responses are a little slow
Attached Image
  • #1,323
  • Feb 26, 2007 7:30pm Feb 26, 2007 7:30pm
alcastro:

I got out. The durable goods orders is coming out tomorrow so I'm going to wait post news before the next trade. I have another position open per another method so disregard those order lines on the chart. This is a triple top on the 4hr right at the 1.3200 number = tough resistance. If there is a MACD signal back up and off the 21 then I may re-enter but only back to the 3200 area. It's got to be 'worth : it' though. Otherwise, it'll be a quiet evening til' Tuesday.
Attached Image
  • #1,324
  • Feb 26, 2007 7:45pm Feb 26, 2007 7:45pm
Chandra:

Here's another view:

Uptrend in tact. The MACD looks a little thin though, waiting for direction. Remeber it's a daily chart but it's ALWAYS a good idea to check on a higher timeframe other than what you are trading on...
Attached Image
  • #1,325
  • Feb 26, 2007 7:53pm Feb 26, 2007 7:53pm
More divergence and the MACD....note the higher price tops and the lower MACD with the downturn in the histogram, red bar. So, on a new high in price action with a lower MACD, wait for the close (red bar on the histogram) before entering on the short. Opposite for the longs of course...

Again, this is the daily chart...but a chart is a chart is a chart...
Attached Image
  • #1,326
  • Feb 26, 2007 8:06pm Feb 26, 2007 8:06pm
Quoting Benf
I do not see trend continuation signal forming! I am seeing the possibility of "Zero cross over and back up" long signal after the completion of current candle (0:00 to 4:00 GMT).

Chandra, why to wait for another candle? It's a clearly visible pattern of 1 red and 2 blue finished candles. What you call a "zero cross" is in fact a mini round bottom. Of course, it may fail as any other pattern but for now it points to uptrend continuation, though I think it's unlikely because EUR/JPY was not so high since 1998 and according to D1 chart it's time for correction or reversal.
http://forexbarometer.com/graph/eur-jpy-20070226.gif
Hi your chart and mine differ. However, I comment based on your chart only.
(Let us follow a short hand for signals. Round Bottom=RB; Round Top=RT Trend continue=TC; Zero Turn Back=ZTB. It makes life easier if all of us stick to this naomiclature)
Coming back to your chart, sure there is RB signal but i is not Trend Continuation to up side. For me, it is actually change of trend to the up side. you used the word Trend continues, I took it as TC signal. It is my mistake.
-Chandra.
  • #1,327
  • Feb 26, 2007 8:12pm Feb 26, 2007 8:12pm
2007-2-26; 2:09 GMT
EUR/JPY 0:00 candle.
Those who use IBFX, do you see a trend continuation (TC) to the down side (MACD-teeny veeny candls below the zero line forming TC signal?
-Chandra
  • #1,328
  • Feb 26, 2007 8:12pm Feb 26, 2007 8:12pm
Chandra,

When I said this chart looked like trend continuation, I meant that it was going to continue in it's downtrend, which has actually shown itself. I also just took profit on usd/jpy off this rule that pertains that Phillip said earlier (thanks phillip!). If in an uptrend and the price retraces below the 21 ema, which we would expect, it will usually test up again, and then continue down. This showed itself in the eur/yen and the usd/yen on my charts.

Thanks for the 34 pips and letting last one ride.... so much to remember

Quoting Chandra
Hi your chart and mine differ. However, I comment based on your chart only.
(Let us follow a short hand for signals. Round Bottom=RB; Round Top=RT Trend continue=TC; Zero Turn Back=ZTB. It makes life easier if all of us stick to this naomiclature)
Coming back to your chart, sure there is RB signal but i is not Trend Continuation to up side. For me, it is actually change of trend to the up side. you used the word Trend continues, I took it as TC signal. It is my mistake.
-Chandra.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,329
  • Feb 26, 2007 8:23pm Feb 26, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting Palmer
More divergence and the MACD....note the higher price tops and the lower MACD with the downturn in the histogram, red bar. So, on a new high in price action with a lower MACD, wait for the close (red bar on the histogram) before entering on the short. Opposite for the longs of course...

Again, this is the daily chart...but a chart is a chart is a chart...
I really see MACD Divergence. But it confuses me a bit. How do we associate this observation with the 4-Hr. MACD approach of Phillip? Is there any realtionship. Good to learn if there is any such connection to Phillip's method.
Thanks for posting and I learned somethig about divergence of MACD.
-Chandra
  • #1,330
  • Feb 26, 2007 8:46pm Feb 26, 2007 8:46pm
As far as the correlation between the daily and the 4hr is concerned....If there is a bias on the daily for bearish divergence I'd put more weight on short entries on the 4hr vs. long entries. But, that is a whole different chapter in trading and I don't want to take anything away from this thread or add anything to it that doesn't belong. This is Phillips 'house' where we are his guests. I would just be aware of the daily 'happenings' as well....

Sleepy time now....zzzzz
  • #1,331
  • Feb 26, 2007 9:03pm Feb 26, 2007 9:03pm
Here is what i see in the three pairs where i am applyng 4hr MACD:

US/CAD:
Looks like a ZTB (following Chandra's semantics) and a trend continuation to the short side-bouncing back from 21MA
I plan to enter @ 1.1590 (it is below a TL).
Stop @ 1.1615 (just above 21MA)
Target profit @ 1.1560
R:R >1

EU/US:
MACD looks like a lower high, but too close to the 8MA and it is a countertrend. So will follow Palmer's advice: will wait until the news to see what happens.

GB/US:
TURK, I also went short yesterday and the candle missed my target profit for 1 pip!! Now i am thinking on reversing the trade and going long. It is bouncing back from the 8MA, but hte candle is red. So I will probably take a small loss on my short and hold my horses until i see more action to either direction. Would prefer the long side.

Any thoughts?
  • #1,332
  • Feb 26, 2007 9:16pm Feb 26, 2007 9:16pm
I agree to be patient with the EUR and GBP. Also, I have already entered a short with the USD/CAD at 1.1597 with a s/l of 1.1617 and t/p of 1.1557(might take profit sooner) so R:R is good.

Quoting alcastro
Here is what i see in the three pairs where i am applyng 4hr MACD:

US/CAD:
Looks like a ZTB (following Chandra's semantics) and a trend continuation to the short side-bouncing back from 21MA
I plan to enter @ 1.1590 (it is below a TL).
Stop @ 1.1615 (just above 21MA)
Target profit @ 1.1560
R:R >1

EU/US:
MACD looks like a lower high, but too close to the 8MA and it is a countertrend. So will follow Palmer's advice: will wait until the news to see what happens.

GB/US:
TURK, I also went short yesterday and the candle missed my target profit for 1 pip!! Now i am thinking on reversing the trade and going long. It is bouncing back from the 8MA, but hte candle is red. So I will probably take a small loss on my short and hold my horses until i see more action to either direction. Would prefer the long side.

Any thoughts?
  • #1,333
  • Feb 26, 2007 9:45pm Feb 26, 2007 9:45pm
I'm definitely waiting for news tomorrow on eur/usd and gbp/usd. My platform right now shows both with spinning candles just hanging out right in the middle or tl's and resistance/support levels just waiting for a break out..... You all be carefull tomorrow... I'm out for the night... I'm also short on usd/cad.

Quoting Tw0eleven
I agree to be patient with the EUR and GBP. Also, I have already entered a short with the USD/CAD at 1.1597 with a s/l of 1.1617 and t/p of 1.1557(might take profit sooner) so R:R is good.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,334
  • Feb 27, 2007 12:19am Feb 27, 2007 12:19am
Anyone noticing a double top on the EUR/USD?
  • #1,335
  • Feb 27, 2007 12:40am Feb 27, 2007 12:40am
Hi Turk,

Yes, I too have noticed the double top forming on the Eur. A bit wary of placing any trades at the moment though b/c of durable goods, consumer confidence and existing home sales out tomorrow.

Cable too has a little tiny funky head and shoulder pattern going on (on the chart I saw the little double mounds Phillip called our attention to last week re: market rhythm). (so i think you may be ok on the short)

For the moment I'm out of the market, will wait for clearer direction...so what if I leave a few pips on the table, right???
  • #1,336
  • Edited 2:51am Feb 27, 2007 2:37am | Edited 2:51am
EURUSD.
2007-02-27 8:00 GMT Bar
4-Hr. Chart.
IBFX Platform.

Phillip.
I hope you are using IBFX platform.
At about 08:31:21, while the 8:00 candle is still forming, I see a RT signal already comppleted on previous (4:00 ) candle telling us to go short; and in the current candle (8:00), it is forming a valley. If the current bar is completed as it is now, then, the valley will be completed, giving a TC signal to go long.
Which of the two signals we should take? (the RT signal on 4:00 candle to go short OR the TC signal currently being formed on the current bar?).
Thanks.
-Chandra.
  • #1,337
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:06am Feb 27, 2007 3:06am
Which of the two signals we should take? (the RT signal on 4:00 candle to go short OR the TC signal currently being formed on the current bar?).
Thanks.
-Chandra.[/quote]
I think if we hold above the price level I would follow the tc signal!
  • #1,338
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:09am Feb 27, 2007 3:09am
Quoting turk87
Is anyone still short the cable?
I went short yesterday at 1.9630 with a SL at 1.9680.
2007-02-27 09:06:11 GMT.
GBPUSD 4-Hr bar. IBFX
I think I too got in short at price around 9630 (RT signal) and got out at 21 MA (just about that level).
I wonder why you did not place 21 MA as TP, since it was (is)a counter-trend (CT) trade! It was hit twice (on current bar and on previous bar). Any reason not to take profit at that level?
Just curious to learn why you did not considered the 21 MA as TP.
-Chandra
  • #1,339
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:37am Feb 27, 2007 3:37am
Quoting alcastro
Here is what i see in the three pairs where i am applyng 4hr MACD:

US/CAD:
Looks like a ZTB (following Chandra's semantics) and a trend continuation to the short side-bouncing back from 21MA
I plan to enter @ 1.1590 (it is below a TL).
Stop @ 1.1615 (just above 21MA)
Target profit @ 1.1560
R:R >1

EU/US:
MACD looks like a lower high, but too close to the 8MA and it is a countertrend. So will follow Palmer's advice: will wait until the news to see what happens.

GB/US:
TURK, I also went short yesterday and the candle missed my target profit for 1 pip!! Now i am thinking on reversing the trade and going long. It is bouncing back from the 8MA, but hte candle is red. So I will probably take a small loss on my short and hold my horses until i see more action to either direction. Would prefer the long side.

Any thoughts?
Are you a reporter or what! Such a nice report!
My response:
USDCAD.
I agree with your analysis.
What prompted you to use 1.1560 for TP?
Just curious to know!
-Chandra
  • #1,340
  • Feb 27, 2007 3:44am Feb 27, 2007 3:44am
Quoting pipmy4x
Which of the two signals we should take? (the RT signal on 4:00 candle to go short OR the TC signal currently being formed on the current bar?).
Thanks.
-Chandra.
I think if we hold above the price level I would follow the tc signal![/quote]
Thanks, Pipmy4X.
-Chandra
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