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  • #21
  • Edited 9:00am Oct 16, 2008 8:35am | Edited 9:00am
Yeah that's totaly how you want to trade if you are interested in beeing profitable for years and years. This will work forever.
  • #22
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:37am Oct 16, 2008 8:37am
Guys, again thank you for all your words and private messages. I feel much better now! I won't give up however sometimes I need some push to continue forex learning and thanks to you it becomes much easier task!
Sooner or later, those who win are those who think they can.
  • #23
  • Oct 16, 2008 9:02am Oct 16, 2008 9:02am
Quote
I believe all are inter-related (Stocks or FX).... as long as ur trade is based on TA....as TA skill is kinda universal...The difference is more or less volatility...
Hehehe. In general, yea, there's a lot of correlation to be sure. But some TA approaches that work in one market won't work in another. As more intra-day traders get involved in a market the amount of time spent ranging increases, while the amount of time spent trending decreases. Look at how markets grow and you'll notice a few patterns that change over time.

So yea, if you generalize you'll find ways to trade them all. But if you continue to trade a set system (and TF) regardless of the instrument, I think that's a recipe for disaster. I've got a relative that trades the S&P. I talked to her about forex once and she chuckled a bit "I tried that once, lost some money, went back to the S&P." Her method is based on opening characteristics, bar patterns and an MA cross-over. The combination has worked for years (10+) in the S&P, failed miserably in FX.

My biggest challenge in the transition has been the 24 hr markets. While all stocks have "overnight trading" to some degree, it's a tiny fraction of what happens during the day. FX... not that way.

Quote
Yeah that totaly how you want to trade if you are interested in beeing profitable for years and years. This will work forever.
LOL. You dropped some sarcasm tags.

Quote
Guys, again thank you for all your words and private messages. I feel much better now! I won't give up however sometimes I need some push to continue forex learning and thanks to you it becomes much easier task!
Don't be afraid to take time off. That's all. 10 years of trading will go by, you'll be fine, and you'll still need a vacation every so often. The markets demand a lot of attention, the human brain needs some downtime to digest it all.
  • #24
  • Oct 16, 2008 7:28pm Oct 16, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting pug123
Guys, again thank you for all your words and private messages. I feel much better now! I won't give up however sometimes I need some push to continue forex learning and thanks to you it becomes much easier task!
go for 30 min time frame

untile signal show then wait until other indicator to show up too if so, then it is the trend.
  • #25
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:17pm Oct 16, 2008 8:17pm
Hi pug,

i've develop one latest EA that I think may help you.
If you would like to try it, PM me. BUT try it on demo OK till you convince with the results.

I am thinking to open a thread regarding the EA sometime later but after read your post, I can give it for your try first.

P.M me if you interested.
The EA seems good for part timer like us.
  • #26
  • Oct 16, 2008 11:49pm Oct 16, 2008 11:49pm
Quoting pug123
Guys, please remind how you were starting and advice me what to do when I'm loosing my second depo

I'm around of 50% of orginal depo (on minus obviously) and can't manage it to get it higher Guess I need more experience.

What is the funny thing. I've tested many systems and it seems to me that for 100% most of them are not fully mechanic. For example one shouldn't trade when market is choppy not violity enough and so on..

SHould I take couple of beers and sit down tommorow again?

I have started forex learning since May however as I'm working full time this is additional so it is hard to spend all day on Forex only..

Thanx for all thoughts..
When I started I was trading impulsively and recklessly because of inexperience. When I recognised my problem, I set out to find someone who was successful, experienced and I could talk to whenever I needed to ask a question. My broker was a failure. He just wanted me to keep on trading.

Then I found the man.

He has given the basic structure of his system here freely.
He has demonstrated how he has traded successfully in live time on an open Forum.
He continues to mentor a select group of traders which I am fortunate being one of them.
He has helped traders like myself become fulltime traders
His generosity of spirit and his time is incredible. I trade less than 5% of his lot sizings but he answers me with honesty and in a straightforward way every time.
He gives mature and experienced advice to every question I ask him.
He has helped me tremendously.
His name is Wayne Jackson (aka Jacko)
The best primer for getting started as a trader is right here on this Forum.
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
  • #27
  • Oct 17, 2008 8:34am Oct 17, 2008 8:34am
Quoting jamiewhite
When I started I was trading impulsively and recklessly because of inexperience. When I recognised my problem, I set out to find someone who was successful, experienced and I could talk to whenever I needed to ask a question. My broker was a failure. He just wanted me to keep on trading.

Then I found the man.

He has given the basic structure of his system here freely.
He has demonstrated how he has traded successfully in live time on an open Forum.
He continues to mentor a select group of traders which I am fortunate being one of them.
He has helped traders like myself become fulltime traders
His generosity of spirit and his time is incredible. I trade less than 5% of his lot sizings but he answers me with honesty and in a straightforward way every time.
He gives mature and experienced advice to every question I ask him.
He has helped me tremendously.
His name is Wayne Jackson (aka Jacko)
The best primer for getting started as a trader is right here on this Forum.
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
G'day Jamie,

A good description of what Jacko has done for me in my trading. He helps me to think things through in my trades. And he can do that because he is a real trader and knows what it is like to wear the emotional weight of being in a big trade
  • #28
  • Oct 17, 2008 4:03pm Oct 17, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting Xaron

Let's say you make \"only\" 10% per day and start with $1,000.

By the end of the first year you would have made $22,293,142,370,048.39
When I discovered that the greatest traders in the world make on average 20-30% a year, that is what I decided I would begin shooting for.

In order to make 10% average per day on the stock market a trader would have to trade penny stocks or highly volatile $1-$5 microcaps. That is all that could give the opportunity. However, these stocks are only liquid enough to give a person in the $10ks ($10k-$99k) at very most on a given day. So it is quite clear that if these gains are actually achieved ... they are not compounded.

I will not say that it is impossible to get those returns, though I am certain that John Paulson, George Soros and T. Boone Pickens were three of the most successful traders of 2007, none of them made even close to 100% on the entire year (let alone a day) and not one of them made more than $3.3 billion.

Given this knowledge we can be sure of one or two things. One, anyone that claims here on a forum they make an average that high is either full of poop (excuse my language) or two, they havent been doing this long enough to smack hard into the ceiling . If someone has a system though that they can have a steady 100,000k in their account and have it grow by 10-60% a day, more power to you... wish I could. It would somewhat be like have a money tree in the backyard.

Just thought I would put another note in for Pug. Kenneth Griffin (Citadel hedge fund fame) has lost 30% of his funds value so far this year. His earnings were 1.5 billion last year. If they can lose, small folk like us shouldnt worry too much about our bad times. Just take it slow
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #29
  • Oct 17, 2008 4:35pm Oct 17, 2008 4:35pm
Take things slow... I blew up my first account in about one week... Nearly blew up my second account and when there was very little left, I switched to demo, best decision I could make. After I returned to live trading, the account started growing with no looking back. Do I have losses? Yes, just recently took -166 pips on cable, but not sweating it, I know I can make that back with the next good setup. So again, take it slow. Demo first, micro later, mini after that, and by the time you get to standard, you'll be stone cold steve austin... you know what i mean.
Trax Tibidax Tibidox...
  • #30
  • Oct 17, 2008 5:02pm Oct 17, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting Pipshower
Some very basic things like MM and Price action with patience is what you need to be mechanical
I am sorry to ask this stupid question, but what exactly is a Price Action?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #31
  • Oct 18, 2008 12:22pm Oct 18, 2008 12:22pm
Quote
Actually 3-10% per month. So I'm a poor guy, but my account is slightly bigger than the usual $100 account.
I think 10% per month is reasonable w/ active trading. I've heard tales of ppl regularly doing 30% per month, but I'm not convinced it's sustainable over time.

Quote
It was not my intention to start the some kind of war here and it seems that it was started anyway..
Wasn't you. When ppl reach a certain point (at anything) it's important to develop an ego in order to keep going. This is especially true of business. Think about a situation where you don't need the money, why would you aggressively negotiate or fight for marginal gains? Ego. It's what's for dinner.

It's only natural then... put 2 in a room and they'll fight it out for dominance. Like 2 nerdy guy deers fighting for a cute lady deer. You'll get used to it. Welcome to forexfactory... =).
  • #32
  • Edited Oct 19, 2008 10:07am Oct 18, 2008 12:45pm | Edited Oct 19, 2008 10:07am
Here is my advice, to do with as you see fit:

1) Learn to trade forex manually, with no EAs. That gives you the experience to understand how the currencies react under different conditions.

2) Don't try to make things too technical or more difficult than it needs to be. Congested charts look really neat but are usually of little value.

3) Don't focus so much on % drawdown or pips/month or specific money management rules, but rather on a dollar goal. If you plan to make this your job, your goal should be for that amount.

4) Learn a strategy that isn't a gamble, but something you feel confident with that has a track record of being profitable. Most of the time it is something simple. Stick with just a couple at first.

5) Trade with a demo account until you feel comfortable with that broker and your strategy, then open a real account and trade with real money. Don't spend months and years on a demo or this will become a hobby, not a way to make money.

6) Don't spend too much time on mini-lots as it is the full sized ones that grow your account. Go for 400:1 margin, as you can make money faster, and since you are trading manually, you are able to manage downside risk.

7) Watch out for extremely negative posts on this forum, as most of those are done by people that hopefully don't mean to be so negative, but are just frustrated, especially if they are not doing well in their own account, so don't get upset with them.

8) Only take advice from people trading at the level you want to be at using a real account, not a demo. If they are not taking money to the bank, there is usually a reason.

9) If you want to really pick someone's brain, contact them outside of the forum, because people honestly trying to help others don't like the name calling and abuse (see #7 above).

Good luck and stay in the game!
  • #33
  • Oct 18, 2008 4:14pm Oct 18, 2008 4:14pm
Re the earlier comments on average ROI, I suspect that much depends on the type and accuracy of one's system, the timeframe being traded (scalping, intraday, swing trading, position trading, etc), and the position sizes. By the latter, while I realize that forex is completely scalable, I mean that a small retail trader should easily be agile enough to avoid liquidity problems, while a large bank or fund moving vast sums might need to unwind positions more slowly. I don't know to what extent that's true, but I've read that, despite the size of the forex market, liquidity can become an issue for the really big players.

A retail trader who is trading intraday will get the opportunity to compound his gains (and losses!) quickly. Assuming his method delivers a genuine edge, I don't see why returns well in excess of 20%-30% per year shouldn't be easily possible. If I didn't believe so - then for me, persoinally - there would be little point in pursuing a career as a trader; I'd need to start with a $200-$300k (that's NZD, I live in NZ) account just to make a reasonable annual income. And possibly more so, IMHO, to justify the time and effort, and levels of stress, involved. With interest rates in this part of the world being so high, it's not too difficult to find low(ish) risk passive investments that return 8%-10% here.

David
  • #34
  • Oct 18, 2008 6:42pm Oct 18, 2008 6:42pm
Quoting Chicky
I am sorry to ask this stupid question, but what exactly is a Price Action?
Chicky -

My fearless leader, James16 has a thread on Price Action. The short version of an answer is basically reading a chart, and what the candles/bars say about the "action of price". Normally indicators and fundamental info is secondary, if present at all.

A good price action chart is very clean, like the one I am attaching....each arrow shows a bar that you might trade. (For reasons that are explained over in his thread.)

Clockwork
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: priceaction.png Size: 40 KB
  • #35
  • Oct 18, 2008 7:16pm Oct 18, 2008 7:16pm
Notice the pins both reflect off a common support, too, giving it a hand from the multiple bottoms at support.

Also notice that the other USD-based pairs have similar structures, meaning that this is a heavily USD-driven setup.

Also notice that the same PA structures wouldn't have worked quite so well in the EURUSD... hehe. But before going "yea, nothing's perfect" figure out why it hasn't worked and what's driving the difference.

There's more than just a price setup, altho that's certainly a clue, there's a whole market sentiment that's playing out in front of us. Price action (and volume, to a degree) reflects this sentiment in certain patterns... over and over again.
  • #36
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:07am Oct 19, 2008 9:07am
Quoting Rabid
Notice the pins both reflect off a common support, too, giving it a hand from the multiple bottoms at support.

Also notice that the other USD-based pairs have similar structures, meaning that this is a heavily USD-driven setup.

Also notice that the same PA structures wouldn't have worked quite so well in the EURUSD... hehe. But before going \"yea, nothing's perfect\" figure out why it hasn't worked and what's driving the difference.

There's more than just a price setup, altho that's certainly a clue, there's a whole market sentiment that's playing out in front of us. Price action (and volume, to a degree) reflects this sentiment in certain patterns... over and over again.
Volume? And where do we find that? God, if that were available, it would make this so much easier. (New guys, the "Volume" on your charts is for YOUR BROKER ONLY. There is the currency futures markets I suppose.....but that's a different market.)

The point is this: I don't care what's driving the markets. I am here to make profits. I don't care about the Euro, the Yen, the Israeli Sheckel either.....I care about profits. It's not like we actually buy or sell anything. There is no truck on it's way to my house with 200,000 AUD for example.

You are right though.....patterns to repeat over and over. It's the only way I have found to make some money. Also, the Euro has been a pain lately. This is why I haven't been trading it to be honest. Shorting the GBP/USD is where my profits have come as of late. (See daily pinbar a couple of days ago.)


Clockwork
  • #37
  • Oct 19, 2008 10:57am Oct 19, 2008 10:57am
Quote
Volume? And where do we find that? God, if that were available, it would make this so much easier. (New guys, the \"Volume\" on your charts is for YOUR BROKER ONLY. There is the currency futures markets I suppose.....but that's a different market.)
Hehe, well some ECNs do have an approx volume. MT4 provides "tick volume" which is a rough approximation of volume based on the ticks that come thru. While it's technically based on broker data, since it's calculated on overall ticks from the feed there's some intra-broker data there.

There are things you can do w/ it tho, not traditional VSA or Wyckoff or anything, but the whole "volume climax pattern" stuff works. So a faded volume rally still tends to signal a trend change, and of course the classic long tails on high volume still yells "failure to launch!"

Quote
The point is this: I don't care what's driving the markets. I am here to make profits. I don't care about the Euro, the Yen, the Israeli Sheckel either.....I care about profits. It's not like we actually buy or sell anything. There is no truck on it's way to my house with 200,000 AUD for example.
Nod, that works I guess. But I do care what drives the markets. Not neccessarily the fundementals or the myriad of assumptions that go into news trading, but I do care what value various traders are considering and what areas they are rejecting. You can learn all of that from charts, but it's useful info to have.

To elaborate, compare that Aussie chart w/ the Euro chart. The euro had not rejected any price up to that point, and it's not certain that it will now. But the Aussie is different. The first H4 pin was relatively small, and depending on when you entered might not have made you any money (certainly the RR would've been very small). The 2nd H4 pin was very different... why? Because price had already begun rejecting the .6400 level. Long term traders that push the charts past their intra-day ranges began sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what happens (or waiting for a pullback). Until/unless they re-enter and force a break, it's going to retrace.

In the case of the euro the PB was nothing more than a regression to a short term mean, prior to a re-test of support. In the case of the aussie it was a short-term rejection of established support. Naturally more traders will take a fade trade when price is playing at an established level. With support increasing H&S style if we break above the top of the last high price will likely reverse for a spell and make a large TF retrace.

You don't inherently need to know all of that when just playing basic price patterns, but it can be used to confirm signals pretty well.

Quote
You are right though.....patterns to repeat over and over. It's the only way I have found to make some money. Also, the Euro has been a pain lately. This is why I haven't been trading it to be honest. Shorting the GBP/USD is where my profits have come as of late. (See daily pinbar a couple of days ago.)
Nod. I've been scalping it intra-day on the M15 here and there. There are some very predictable setups that form along the way, but it's time-consuming. I looked at the daily PB, but lately the daily hasn't been too reliable and the volatility makes the necessary stop losses unattractive to me. Still, the cable's been acting better. A lot of S/R behavior that makes it really easy to trade.
  • #38
  • Oct 19, 2008 1:59pm Oct 19, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting clockwork71
Chicky -

My fearless leader, James16 has a thread on Price Action. The short version of an answer is basically reading a chart, and what the candles/bars say about the \"action of price\". Normally indicators and fundamental info is secondary, if present at all.

A good price action chart is very clean, like the one I am attaching....each arrow shows a bar that you might trade. (For reasons that are explained over in his thread.)

Clockwork
Thanks a lot for explaining Price Action. I realized my question was even more stupid when one can google this term. I did my homework last night and now have some understanding of this term. Thanks again for lot for your help.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #39
  • Oct 24, 2008 3:03am Oct 24, 2008 3:03am
Thanks for all responses. I got one more question.

Most of the experienced traders usually say that scalping it is not strategy for rookies and here is problem for me. I think newbies very often choose scalping not only for become quick rich (well in fact quick loose at the begining , I know) but becouse of the fact that they don't own enough big depo.

What is my point. I've tried to play 1H,4H charts but it was really frustrating to me when market went in opposite side. I did not know if I should still keep position which has for example -60pips.. On 5min charts it was easier. If it's for example -15 ,-20 close position..but on 1h/4h charts... I have not known if market will come back and go as I thought or...it started going opposite side.
On 5min it was easier to predict.. Yes I know..it takes time That is why I think many rookies start from scalping.
Sooner or later, those who win are those who think they can.
  • #40
  • Oct 24, 2008 3:22am Oct 24, 2008 3:22am
How small a lot size does your broker allow? (...per pip...roughly on a say a USD based pair)

Keep in mind that the market is extraordinarily volatile at the moment. Many pairs are moving multiples of their long term average daily ranges.

Makes it hard for anyone starting out. Which is a pity.

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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