4hr trade
ChfJpy - Pin at top of range playing with trend but down to support (TP there)
ChfJpy - Pin at top of range playing with trend but down to support (TP there)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #14,502
- Edited 1:32pm Oct 16, 2008 12:51pm | Edited 1:32pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
No, I know you weren't comfortable with those but the ones with the trend.
ps sorry for the late response, i read your qouted post but was unable to reply before the usual electricity breakdown...third world country stuff you know
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #14,503
- Oct 16, 2008 1:23pm Oct 16, 2008 1:23pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
4hr trade
ChfJpy - Pin at top of range playing with trend but down to support (TP there)
First off i don't see the Cj pin on my feed so i am basing my analysis on your chart.
Here are my reasons why i would not have taken the trade:
1) the trade is not with the trend;
The market is clearly consolidating and is range bound, any PA setup within the range cannot be confidently called a setup in favor of the previous trend.
2) the pin appears to be in heavy traffic;
Take note of the black circles i drew throught the range, they indicate heavy traffic along with a real uncertainity between the bulls and bears, and when these two are fighting it's best to watch from the stands rather than go out to help either party with a tag
3) the pin does not occur on either extreme of the range;
The pin you have taken the trade on occurs somewhat on a ppz within the main range which is a rsponsive level within the main extermes of the range, a trade setup occuring maybe at one of the two horizontal blue lines that define the main range would have perhaps caught my attention.
4) you could have waited for the range to break;
As Mike explains it is actually more sensible that during ranging like in this case (with high volatility and many integrated responsive price levels) it is best to wait for a break of the range, in this case the short side is more preferable as that can confidently be called a breakout with the previous trend
Although i personally do take some trades within range bound price action it is strictly off either extreme and has space to live i.e there are not many inter range ppzs around plus the range is wide enough for my liking, this case does'nt seem to appeal to me atall, untill ofcaorse the range breaks.
Although i would have liked you to ponder over these 4 points a little more in depth i still wish you all the luck for this trade
the chart assuming the two bars in the black rectangle to be a Pin bar:
I believe . . .
- #14,504
- Oct 16, 2008 1:55pm Oct 16, 2008 1:55pm
It works about 70% of the time if you know what you doing, instead of blindly playing retraces at fibs. You combine those setups with info from post #14469 and your odds increase to about 85%...
James thank you for the divergence osc info. I have a bunch of homemade osc I have programed so sounds like anyone of them will do the trick.
forex007 thanks for the pdf of divergence, very interesting read. I feel time does play a huge part in trading that a lot of us overlook. The best trades don't retrace most of the time for example.
Best wishes,
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
- #14,506
- Oct 16, 2008 4:27pm Oct 16, 2008 4:27pm
Hi Pipfox,
For me on the daily, the USDCHF is in a sideways market and the pinbar/BUOB doesn't hold any weight and personally I wouldn't trade it.....+ conflicting signals which spooks me
On the weekly we have had a two bar high with the previous neutral bar showing indecision.
But.....if it was to head South your profit target looks pretty much spot on and I'd be moving my stops to break even as soon as feasibly possible.
One monthly chart I am keeping my eye on is the GBPUSD....lot's of confluence at this point ....1.7450 PPZ, 150 & 365 EMA's, the 50% fib from the move of January 2001 to the high....I know picking bottoms is a mugs game but it is a pretty strong spot to look for some PA and worth keeping an eye on the weekly and daily timeframes to confirm.
On the daily's today there is nothing that interests me and yesterdays three trades reached their profit targets and I'm now flat with a healthy profit of +591 pips.
Good luck with your trade should you take it
For me on the daily, the USDCHF is in a sideways market and the pinbar/BUOB doesn't hold any weight and personally I wouldn't trade it.....+ conflicting signals which spooks me
On the weekly we have had a two bar high with the previous neutral bar showing indecision.
But.....if it was to head South your profit target looks pretty much spot on and I'd be moving my stops to break even as soon as feasibly possible.
One monthly chart I am keeping my eye on is the GBPUSD....lot's of confluence at this point ....1.7450 PPZ, 150 & 365 EMA's, the 50% fib from the move of January 2001 to the high....I know picking bottoms is a mugs game but it is a pretty strong spot to look for some PA and worth keeping an eye on the weekly and daily timeframes to confirm.
On the daily's today there is nothing that interests me and yesterdays three trades reached their profit targets and I'm now flat with a healthy profit of +591 pips.
Good luck with your trade should you take it
- #14,507
- Edited 5:05pm Oct 16, 2008 4:50pm | Edited 5:05pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Hey Guys,
Tonight I am looking at the U/C for a potential trade but need to wait and see how it turns out before I place any orders, here's why:
If you look at the charts you can see that the Monthly is turning former support into resistance (potentially). On the Daily there is a pin forming with good rejection of the recent high (06/10-English dates, not American!).
But, on the other hand this is also turning into a BUOB!
If you drill down to lower timeframes you will see the heavy selling at the recent high which was major support on the higher timeframe, this is why I am tended more to go with the pinbar viewpoint. Hopefully there will be some good selling over the next couple of hours to give me a nice pin, then i'll get loaded up.
First target for a short is 1.1250, then on for another hundred.
Long target is today's high followed by a stop to breakeven and see what happens.
I am biased to the short side, but thats just my opinion and i'm not too sure how much attention i should pay to it!
Any comments welcome....
I think you are guessing the direction correctly though. I'm guessing it will return to the trend line maybe.
Having ideas on where the market might go isn't the same as spotting a high probability set up though.
If you want to make consistent profits you have to not take trades that are little better than 50/50. Gambling. The pin really is in a sideways market there.
I've zoomed down through the time frames, and I can't even see a tradable situation.
It almost looks like there is a double bottom on the 15 minute chart (11:30gmt and 13:30gmt) that is now about to see a bounce off it's middle high. The top of your pin could very well be an attempt at a break out upwards that didn't have the momentum the past 24 hours to support it and may follow through later.
Bottom line. There will be better trades. Hold on to your money for a little longer.
Edit: Nothing interests me on the dailies that I watch here either. A few inside bars that might create something for us tomorrow. Cable looks like heading up, but where it is now I wouldn't add exposure. Not until past 1.7340-1.7390 zone anyway.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #14,511
- Oct 16, 2008 7:55pm Oct 16, 2008 7:55pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
While I am aware that the trend is down, I am looking at the Daily EURUSD PB from 10/10 and wondering if yesterday's action can be considered the Retrace for the 10/10 Pin?
Both have met firm support off the 3400 AND the 13 mth low at 3358.
Yesterday's PB is in too much traffic to be valid by itself, but if we were waiting for the RET to enter the 10/10 PB, is this valid, or is 4 days too much time? TIA
You've built up the thoughts that will support your decisions later on.
At the moment there's no set up that would tell you to enter either way though.
You don't have to wait that long for trades to materialise. So don't give in to those feelings of not wanting to miss out. ...Wait for a good signal. Even if that means next week. ....At the moment (current PA) it looks neutral and undecided.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #14,512
- Oct 16, 2008 8:13pm Oct 16, 2008 8:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,070 Posts
Am I seeing a PB in EJ 1H TF??
Kinda Counter T though,,,
sonic
My money works harder while I asleep...
Black :: Entry
Red :: SL
Blu :: TP
Sonic
- #14,514
- Oct 16, 2008 10:04pm Oct 16, 2008 10:04pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Thanks Bundy,
Still sitting and waiting.
Still the one question: If this had been with the trend and with better confirmation, would 4 days be too long to have considered it a retrace? Or do we just forget the earlier PB?
Thanks, M
One answer: It is a retrace, of course. ... Forget the earlier pin though. ...As far as an entry signal goes anyway.
It's not a retrace to enter on of the old pin. (Traffic above sucks for one. ) After a couple of days or so I'd rather see a new PA set up first.
The Oct 10th pin gives good support to the current lows. So that's a good thing to know. (By the way. It's not a pin on my brokers charts, but that doesn't matter for the following explanation)
If you draw your fib tool from the bottom of that pin to the high of the past week (As shown in my chart below.
) You can see we are at what can be a great retrace zone for getting in on a reversal. (The 76.4% to 61.8% zone) I wouldn't enter for other reasons I'll explain in a second...
It's not a reason to get in on the previous pin. That ship has sailed. So NO would be one part of the answer.
If you had got a really good pin here right now though (higher than the previous pin AND right on that fib retrace zone I mentioned above ) then in some circumstances you'd now have a new and pretty strong signal to enter with, but that's only IF there had been more space around it. Which there isn't.
...The same goes for a nice clean Bullish Outside Bar or Double Low Higher Close etc, instead of a pin of course.
For the moment the daily bars are now traffic....
If there was a new pin as I explained above (or other bar signal) then any entry on the break of that pin (etc) would be charging head first into a resistance zone.
That doesn't give you as good a chance as you'd want. Those trades are bad.
It can be hard looking at the chart and wanting to "get in". When it get's like this though you have to wait it out. Or draw down your account balance gambling on the direction it'll take next. ...Or making puny profits and 'break even' trading. ....frustrating you and screwing with your confidence.
It's all about waiting! lol
Edit: Forgot to mention. The bars to the left of your Oct 10th bar are sideways, creating problems ever since.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #14,515
- Oct 16, 2008 10:22pm Oct 16, 2008 10:22pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #14,516
- Oct 16, 2008 11:44pm Oct 16, 2008 11:44pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
7 hours laters..my above post....
My money works harder while I asleep...
Black :: Entry
Red :: SL
Blu :: TP
Sonic
I trade these all day off the 5min, they work good.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
- #14,518
- Oct 17, 2008 2:06am Oct 17, 2008 2:06am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
WOW,
Thanks for your reply - muchmore in depth than I had hoped for - and very much appreciated. There is so much potential to make a profit here, but so many more ways we can lose it. So much to learn, so many mistakes I would rather not have to make if I could just learn from the experience of the masters of the trade here. So thanks again, M
Trade well M.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
