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AUD/USD

  • #861
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:05pm Oct 9, 2008 6:05pm
ASX has plunged 7% so far this morning.

K
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #862
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:22pm Oct 9, 2008 6:22pm
Strange world these days.
  • #863
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:31pm Oct 9, 2008 6:31pm
Just closed al ong for a few bucks...to scared to stick around long.

PLus I am trying to get ready to leave town.

Good luck
  • #864
  • Oct 9, 2008 11:45pm Oct 9, 2008 11:45pm
does it looks long again ?
i am holding many positions long now target is .70xx
  • #865
  • Edited 8:53am Oct 11, 2008 6:48am | Edited 8:53am
Hope to see some strength in the pair next week. I like AUD USD long eventually, but have to wait or all the unwinding of hedge funds and the like.

Not that equity options have expired,the markets are likely to rally and put some strength in the carry trade, which has it's part in this pair - particularly for those nations with appropriate yields. Next week may be a pivot, maybe not, but I will be watching. If the bull move persist this could be the mother of all retracements to the upside, IMO.

EDIT: Further chart analysis today has me comfortable longing AUD going into next week. there may be a fake out on price action, but seems bullish to me.
  • #866
  • Oct 11, 2008 11:16pm Oct 11, 2008 11:16pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Hope to see some strength in the pair next week. I like AUD USD long eventually, but have to wait or all the unwinding of hedge funds and the like.

Not that equity options have expired,the markets are likely to rally and put some strength in the carry trade, which has it's part in this pair - particularly for those nations with appropriate yields. Next week may be a pivot, maybe not, but I will be watching. If the bull move persist this could be the mother of all retracements to the upside, IMO.

EDIT: Further chart analysis today has me comfortable longing AUD going into next week. there may be a fake out on price action, but seems bullish to me.
yes it seems like its setting up for a good long move.. will be interesting to see how far itll retrace down still on the minute chart..
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #867
  • Edited 2:02pm Oct 12, 2008 2:01pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Hope to see some strength in the pair next week. I like AUD USD long eventually, but have to wait or all the unwinding of hedge funds and the like.

Not that equity options have expired,the markets are likely to rally and put some strength in the carry trade, which has it's part in this pair - particularly for those nations with appropriate yields. Next week may be a pivot, maybe not, but I will be watching. If the bull move persist this could be the mother of all retracements to the upside, IMO.

EDIT: Further chart analysis today has me comfortable longing AUD going into next week. there may be a fake out on price action, but seems bullish to me.
I must be truly useless at analysing charts because I just can't see where it is bullish other than bullish divergence on the 4 hour with stochs turning up?

I want it to go up, I am just stunned that it has fallen so far so fast anyway - not sure whether to change some money into AUD now in case it rockets up but I read some analysis on another thread and the poster said they were looking at buying at 0.55.

I see that pre-market prices have it at 0.6721.

Can you kindly let me know what you see in your charts? Thanks
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #868
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:22pm Oct 12, 2008 2:22pm
I went long on both and moved stoplosses to zero loss atm.

I made my decision only on the fact that both kiwi and aussie gov declared that all their bank deposits are 100% guaranteed.
Gravity always wins
  • #869
  • Edited 5:29pm Oct 12, 2008 5:14pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting Patience
I must be truly useless at analysing charts because I just can't see where it is bullish other than bullish divergence on the 4 hour with stochs turning up?

I want it to go up, I am just stunned that it has fallen so far so fast anyway - not sure whether to change some money into AUD now in case it rockets up but I read some analysis on another thread and the poster said they were looking at buying at 0.55.

I see that pre-market prices have it at 0.6721.

Can you kindly let me know what you see in your charts? Thanks
MACD histogram divergence on recent lows, showed price action dipped way low compared to MACD Histogram. Placed order today for openbut gapped out or range and never got filled. Waiting now for some sense of direction after a retarce closer to the lows or some support level. What a bummer...wishing I went long tail end of last week. All that selling was just chaos.

Check this out for explanation and see if you can see what I am talking about.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
  • #870
  • Oct 12, 2008 6:45pm Oct 12, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
MACD histogram divergence on recent lows, showed price action dipped way low compared to MACD Histogram. Placed order today for openbut gapped out or range and never got filled. Waiting now for some sense of direction after a retarce closer to the lows or some support level. What a bummer...wishing I went long tail end of last week. All that selling was just chaos.

Check this out for explanation and see if you can see what I am talking about.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
Thanks for your reply. I'm going to have a play around with the MACD. The selling has been totally chaotic. I have even been using the 5M chart lately - truly gambling ....

GL&GT
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #871
  • Oct 13, 2008 12:17pm Oct 13, 2008 12:17pm
Still strong, while EURUSD showing weakness as the indicator suggested. Very interesting.
  • #872
  • Oct 15, 2008 5:20pm Oct 15, 2008 5:20pm
Longs looking good. Glad to see continued strength into Asia. 15 min has move above 20SMA soooo let's see if we can keep the momentum through some other timeframes. testing 20sma to downside as I post.

Longs still there as MACD histogram put in higher low on continued weakness.
  • #873
  • Oct 15, 2008 6:11pm Oct 15, 2008 6:11pm
Did you realise that the Thai baht has strengthened 27% against the Aussie dollar....... ? Traders are being quoted as saying "less bang for your buck"
  • #874
  • Oct 15, 2008 7:09pm Oct 15, 2008 7:09pm
Just closed longs for tidy profit. Finished tomorrows work tonight!

looking for reentry... Goodnight
  • #875
  • Oct 16, 2008 5:24am Oct 16, 2008 5:24am
Longs look tempting, but not worth the risk ATM...

Wait for next cycle
  • #876
  • Edited 12:26pm Oct 16, 2008 8:23am | Edited 12:26pm
Liking longs here .6645

CLosed 20 pip scalp...


EDIT wow up over 200 pips...boy I blew that one by closing too soon. I am liking this new indicator strategy. Had not idea it had legs that long though. Willl have to wait for another set up.
  • #877
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:05pm Oct 16, 2008 8:05pm
The recent oil contract will soon be maturing and will be swapped with a new contract and new price tommorow. I think that the Aud follows the next oil price. Wether it will be rise or down to the support level of 0.6550 once more. Any suggestion?
  • #878
  • Oct 17, 2008 4:42am Oct 17, 2008 4:42am
Had a GTC order at .6745 get hit while I was sleeping at 4AM, just closed...

No idea what is next, but I favor longs.

Done for the week.
  • #879
  • Oct 17, 2008 10:12am Oct 17, 2008 10:12am
I am using the 4hr.

high @ 0.7237 low @ 0.6325

the range as I see it: high @ 0.7237 low @ 0.6500

my bias is: I believe the bottom is in @ 0.6325, so I am long.

open positions @: 0.6621, 0.6819 & 0.6793
stops are @: 0.6626, 0.6824 & 0.6798

targets: 0.7000, 0.7162/0.7237/ & 0.7421-which is the 8hr. 50% of 0.8518/0.6325

the situation at the moment is, this leg-up must create a new high above 0.7237 and on the retracement stay above 0.6600

IF, these things happen in the next few weeks, then we may see a new trend up.
  • #880
  • Oct 17, 2008 10:55am Oct 17, 2008 10:55am
Can't believe I sold out that .6745 position...what a wuss

I guess I'll have to wait for next retrace, but I suspect it may not come for a while. Markets are perking up.
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