The trend is your friend Myth? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why your broker is your friend and your enemy 8 replies

1% Money Management is a myth, fib is a myth and so on.. 45 replies

Is The Trend Really Your Friend? 119 replies

The trend is your friend: if you dont miss the boat 13 replies

Trend is your friend (Image attached) 7 replies

Attachments: The trend is your friend Myth?
Exit Attachments

The trend is your friend Myth?

  • #21
  • Oct 15, 2008 10:54pm Oct 15, 2008 10:54pm
I think the problem here is WHEN you establish your trend is a personal thing. I personally couldn't imagine a 20 year starting point in the past as a reference point to DAILY trading. This is why there are different time frame charts, a zillion different MA's etc. The trend is simply RELATIVE to your trading activity and long term or short term goals. Also, the chart you attached is not in a downtrend. It found a bottom and is going sideways with slight channeling. I think the relevant answer is to figure out how long you intend to hold the trade (hourly, daily, weekly etc.) and then figure out how far back to establish your trend. I hope this helped. Happy trading!
Brinks truck on standby, ready to kick it in reverse!
  • #22
  • Oct 15, 2008 11:01pm Oct 15, 2008 11:01pm
Quoting soso
There's not much to talk about really.
All you need is a way (your way) to define the trend. Then apply it to your trading timeframe (and other timeframes too IF your system says so).
I think this is a clever desciption

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL

The trend is the BEST friend you will ever have in the Forex market.
  • #23
  • Oct 16, 2008 12:05am Oct 16, 2008 12:05am
Quoting tuguntrumpet
I think this is a clever desciption

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.
YES
1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.No.Has been( note as in the Past.)going up, no guarantee it will continue.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.See Above

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL
You are asking a five year old to predict the future, good luck with that,
The trend is the BEST friend you will ever have in the Forex market.
Anybody can look at a chart and see what happened. We don't get paid to trade history
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #24
  • Oct 16, 2008 12:33am Oct 16, 2008 12:33am
Quoting FXoffshore
Yes David, it was Elliott rules being applied, to show reliably determine trend by impulse wave count, below:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1224121196


FN - Even scalpers can benefit from going with the trend. It is like swimming up stream or down stream, which makes more progress? Scalping with trend allows a recovery from an entry where price puts you into the negative in the early stage, to moving into profit over time. Best scalps are with your back protected by a strong trend line or triangle, and going with the trend. You only lose when you got the trend wrong.

U have my nice admiration for Nice elliot analysis...

Sonic
  • #25
  • Oct 16, 2008 1:47am Oct 16, 2008 1:47am
Thank you Sonic, I appreciate the kind words from a good trader.

I hear the newbies and scalpers saying monthly and weekly TF charts don't matter when they are in and out in a few hours, and I don't disagree.

I would share that I start my week and most days by warming up with a review of the larger TF first, then move down to the shortest TF. It is a discipline that gives me an edge, I have a solid feel for where the market is at, even if I am just taking 20 pips to cover a weekend away with my large family. I enter the TF trends into my trade plan as part of the decision process, amongst many other key factors. Know the trend for 2-3 TF higher, and work off a written trade plan with a spot for "lessons learned".

Good trading to you.
  • #26
  • Edited 3:40am Oct 16, 2008 3:28am | Edited 3:40am
Quoting tuguntrumpet
I think this is a clever desciption

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL

The trend is the BEST friend you will ever have in the Forex market.
Tugun, I believe this is Jacko-speak.

Clearly, much depends on the zoom level, which changes the number of bars being considered. Below are three current GBPJPY,M15 charts. Based upon this definition, charts 1 and 3 show an uptrend, and chart 2 a downtrend. Yet they are the same pair, same timeframe, same endpoint. Which chart shows the correct trend?

Quoting FXoffshore
.........I would share that I start my week and most days by warming up with a review of the larger TF first, then move down to the shortest TF............
My understanding is that this is pretty much an essential prerequisite for performing a comprehensive EW analysis.

David
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend 4.GIF Size: 27 KB
  • #27
  • Oct 16, 2008 3:50am Oct 16, 2008 3:50am
The trend is your friend? More of an 'acquaintance' I'd say. The sort of friend who'd sleep with your sister. Trends don't go on forever. I wonder how many of the carry traders gave back all their profits from the last few years on the false assumption that xxx/JPY was in a permanent uptrend. The trend wasn't their friend. The trend beat the shit out of them.

Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian. If you can stomach the reduced win rate, and not being 'right' all the time, the R:R will make up for it. Profit from the unexpected event, instead of blowing up on it.

Think of it like a lottery where there are one thousand tickets at a $1 a piece - in game 1, there are 100 winners - each winning $10. In game 2 there are 10 winners - each winning $200. Which game should you play?


Your biggest friend is your ability to think reflexively and objectively.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16102008gbpjpyuptrend.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #28
  • Oct 16, 2008 4:06am Oct 16, 2008 4:06am
Quoting FXoffshore
Agree 110%, it is not about right or wrong, but about improving the odds in your favor.

I look at that chart in my own way. What stands out is the steep fall, a typical wave iii impulse move - that is the larger trend in my view - when I can count 5 wave impulses.

Next it is followed by a 3 wave movement, which is countertrend, just a retracement, not a new trend. It is a wave iv.

Then more impulses cascade lower, I can count 9 waves, which is a 5 wave movement with an extension. It is beyond obvious to me even in real time. I would exit when the 9th wave hit my lower channel line, and step a side.

The next following time consuming pattern is a descending triangle a large wave 4 corrective movement, formed by 3 wave movements that retrace .618 to .786 of the previous wave, with 5 up/down total. It is a continuation pattern, that would break lower. I love trading triangles, the risk reward is high, and their features are an anchor for seeing where the market is going. The market here tells me a large 5th wave down is expected to complete this entire pattern.

Figuring the large trend is down and expected to go lower, allows my style to break determine the fractal patterns that make up the components of the whole. So I would move down in TF and apply the same method, I can go as low as a custom squeezed 1 minute chart with complete accuracy that would have the same distinguishing features. It takes training and experience, like reading music, to look beyond chaos and see the patterns that speak a wave language.

Bottom line: trend is always in 5 impulse waves, retracements are in 3 wave patterns or triangles.

Just my 2 cents.
Just remember there is no such thing as always in this business, if we exclude disappointments and broken accounts
Measure twice, cut once
  • #29
  • Oct 16, 2008 7:31am Oct 16, 2008 7:31am
I have an issue here which is, how can I recognise a trend that is going to stay for a very long time? can any body come up with an indicator that can help me in this direction. cos some times before I know it is a trend it is almost over and going back. I will appreciate your explicit response. I am only 3 months in active trading after a year of demo trading, and I am still finding it tough
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #30
  • Oct 16, 2008 7:36am Oct 16, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Kosomolate
I have an issue here which is, how can I recognise a trend that is going to stay for a very long time? can any body come up with an indicator that can help me in this direction. cos some times before I know it is a trend it is almost over and going back. I will appreciate your explicit response. I am only 3 months in active trading after a year of demo trading, and I am still finding it tough
Sight. Have you read any of these posts ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #31
  • Oct 16, 2008 7:43am Oct 16, 2008 7:43am
Quoting Kosomolate
I have an issue here which is, how can I recognise a trend that is going to stay for a very long time? can any body come up with an indicator that can help me in this direction. cos some times before I know it is a trend it is almost over and going back. I will appreciate your explicit response. I am only 3 months in active trading after a year of demo trading, and I am still finding it tough
Just follow the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade the trend.JPG Size: 47 KB
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #32
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:06am Oct 16, 2008 8:06am
check my template. tell me what you think

Aroon indicator is good to know when trend is ended

as long as signal line is turning 45 degreed either up or down. you know the trend
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl tupper.tpl   59 KB | 313 downloads
  • #33
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:07am Oct 16, 2008 8:07am
Quoting 30XTCi
Just follow the trend.
What does your picture state ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #34
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:14am Oct 16, 2008 8:14am
There is no real trend in the forex market, no major currency will be valued "0.0000" against other currency so the market is rangebound (at least in this lifetime of ours). If you can afford to trade over a period of 50 years you can probably take any position, scale into losers and in the end win money.
However, if you want to make profits so you can get to spend them in this lifetime then you will need to trade the chart and pair that are the most appropriate for your equity and waiting time.
For example I trade AUD/NZD with mini lots on the daily/weekly chart and while holding 100k equity. Obviously I prefer minimum risk instead of high profits.
  • #35
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:42am Oct 16, 2008 8:42am
Dear aediaz1, I have read as many as I could, and printed as many treads as I can, but I am yet to see any answer that would say as soon as you see abc then the trend is going to last for sometimes.

Dear 30XTCi, This morning I tried following the trend but I ended up with about -160pips because what I considered to be a trend soon started going opposite direction

Pls my question is not how to recognise downward or upward trend but at the breakout of the trend how do I know it is going to last for a while is there anything to indicate that?

Pls those who know tell us that are trying to know
John 3:16 - From THIS love no power on earth can me sever.
  • #36
  • Oct 16, 2008 9:27am Oct 16, 2008 9:27am
Quoting Kosomolate
Dear aediaz1, I have read as many as I could, and printed as many treads as I can, but I am yet to see any answer that would say as soon as you see abc then the trend is going to last for sometimes.

Dear 30XTCi, This morning I tried following the trend but I ended up with about -160pips because what I considered to be a trend soon started going opposite direction

Pls my question is not how to recognise downward or upward trend but at the breakout of the trend how do I know it is going to last for a while is there anything to indicate that?

Pls those who know tell us that are trying to know
Trading any market is damn hard. If someone says anything else, they're just in some of their first lucky strikes. It takes years of practice and dedicated work, don't get fooled by anything else.

You never know 100% sure when a trend ends but the market will in most cases give small clues on whats next.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #37
  • Oct 16, 2008 11:46am Oct 16, 2008 11:46am
Quoting aediaz1
What does your picture state ?
It screams at me go long no stops and take profit at 1.7910
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #38
  • Oct 16, 2008 4:10pm Oct 16, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting Kosomolate
Dear aediaz1, I have read as many as I could, and printed as many treads as I can, but I am yet to see any answer that would say as soon as you see abc then the trend is going to last for sometimes.

Dear 30XTCi, This morning I tried following the trend but I ended up with about -160pips because what I considered to be a trend soon started going opposite direction

Pls my question is not how to recognise downward or upward trend but at the breakout of the trend how do I know it is going to last for a while is there anything to indicate that?

Pls those who know tell us that are trying to know
This system will show you a long trend very clearly.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=40325
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #39
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:12pm Oct 16, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting 30XTCi
Just follow the trend.
There is no "trend" here per se......it's called consolidation. All those shooting stars at the top, short them. Any hammers at the bottom, buy 'em. I call this "trading the box", and I make most of my profits this way. This chart shows why support and resistance dictate almost everything. Markets spend more time consolidating than trending as a rule.

As far as the overall trend, YES - the USD/JPY has been in a downtrend for a few decades. However, there comes a point that you have to put things in perspective.

For me personally, I define the trend on the weekly chart.....what's obvious to me. And then I trade off the 4 hour. However, you may find daily/1 hour to suit you for example.

Clockwork
  • #40
  • Oct 16, 2008 8:55pm Oct 16, 2008 8:55pm
Quoting clockwork71
There is no \\\\"trend\\\\" here per se......it's called consolidation. All those shooting stars at the top, short them. Any hammers at the bottom, buy 'em. I call this \\\\"trading the box\\\\", and I make most of my profits this way. This chart shows why support and resistance dictate almost everything. Markets spend more time consolidating than trending as a rule.

As far as the overall trend, YES - the USD/JPY has been in a downtrend for a few decades. However, there comes a point that you have to put things in perspective.

For me personally, I define the trend on the weekly chart.....what's obvious to me. And then I trade off the 4 hour. However, you may find daily/1 hour to suit you for example.

Clockwork
Clockwork, that chart was posted as a tongue-in-cheek joke, poke, at how easy it is (not ) to trade a trend under the current market conditions, in this time frame.
Consolidation is nothing more than a time frame travelling in the opposite direction to it's next highest time frame.When the consolidation is over, and the two time frames (cycles) align, we get the break out, as seen shortly after I posted. Cable and Euro were in a real mess yesterday, their cycles were totaly screwed, in everything under 1 hour, they spent most of the day fighting against each other.
I don't have any problems with sheeple trading "a trend"as they see it, as I posted elsewhere, we get paid to trade the future, not the past. What happened 2 hours ago isn't going to guarantee what will happen in the next 2 hours.

On a side note, has anyone noticed the lack of decent Threads here at the Factory. The place is being overrun by noobs that can't seem to think for themselves.

Anyway Clockwork, Good luck ( to those that believe in it ) and good trading, you are one of probably 20 on the boards that know what they are talking about.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
0 traders viewing now