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  • #4,321
  • Oct 14, 2008 4:51am Oct 14, 2008 4:51am
Quoting Willowgal
Already watched it ... excellent again. I am glad you covered that area as it affirmed that I read it correctly myself.

I posted this question which you may have missed on the forum as it is a few pages back now - I would be interested in your reply?

Thanks,

Gareth

Following the first video I have a question ... probably a difficult one to answer

a) In the PDF you mention being wary of levels that have " been sloshed about too much" as this may weaken them

b) In today's video you look out for levels that "have been hit a few times" to add strength to them.

I realise there is probably a fine line between the two, but can you throw any light on to the difference between these two cases please?
Hi there - yeah I can see how that would be a little confusing. What I meant by seeing a level get hit over and over again was based moreso on a longer term timeframe. In other words, the bigger levels that I post have shown a really good history in the past, in general, of getting numerous hits.

When you see a level get hit, in recent history, over and over agian, and getting "sloshed" around as I put it, its usually an indication that its becoming weaker, and therefore, not as safe to play a bounce off of. Like taking this GBP 1.7450 level, price is currently trading above it. At this point, after seeing the level get hit over and over agian over the past day or so, I wouldnt be inclinded to buy off of it. In fact I would probably be looking to sell a downside breakout, perhaps. It will be a little "fatigued" I suppose, at this point, if that makes sense.
  • #4,322
  • Oct 14, 2008 9:09am Oct 14, 2008 9:09am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi there - yeah I can see how that would be a little confusing. What I meant by seeing a level get hit over and over again was based moreso on a longer term timeframe. In other words, the bigger levels that I post have shown a really good history in the past, in general, of getting numerous hits.

When you see a level get hit, in recent history, over and over agian, and getting "sloshed" around as I put it, its usually an indication that its becoming weaker, and therefore, not as safe to play a bounce off of. Like taking this GBP 1.7450 level, price is currently trading above it. At this point, after seeing the level get hit over and over agian over the past day or so, I wouldnt be inclinded to buy off of it. In fact I would probably be looking to sell a downside breakout, perhaps. It will be a little "fatigued" I suppose, at this point, if that makes sense.
The way I've been thinking about it is that if price has been testing a level a lot in the recent past, then it's been using up the buy orders (or buying capacity) available now at that price level. When all that buying capacity has been used up, then the price will break through and go lower. If there's still a lot of buying capacity left, then the price can bounce up again.

If a level has a lot of past history and the level got sloshed around (and all the buying capacity used up) a long time ago, then there will have been time for buy orders and buy intentions to get firmed up again, waiting for price to come back to the same level.

So you want a level that's been hit a lot in the further past, but only hit a little bit in the very recent past.

That's my take on what I have been learning here. Thanks BillyRay!! (I hope I've got it right.)

David
  • #4,323
  • Oct 14, 2008 1:12pm Oct 14, 2008 1:12pm
I found this online here and thought it was pretty interesting - its a picture of the US stock market during the great depression.

I know I put a lot of emphasis on the equity markets but you have to; today we saw a lot more selling going on than anticipated off of that spike yesterday, and now we're actually looking like we have something like a dead cat bounce here coming into light.

A close lower today/more short selling/more liquidation could lead us lower in general....I would expect Asia and Europe to show similar patterns tonight.

For the currencies this means we now have more pressure on a stronger dollar short term again, so I'm looking out for that. SPX is actually in the red right now, indicating a flip to the downside again, for sells on pullbacks, same with GBP/USD, EUR, etc. USD/JPY you can pretty much track equities to the best (and carry trades) so looking for possible sells there as well.

Overall longs still in play though until we have confirmation of otherwise, but so far nothing in concrete as it has been.

Never a dull moment.
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  • #4,324
  • Edited 11:28pm Oct 14, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 11:28pm
Hello Mister Valentine!

May i ask you some fast question to clarify some of my interrogation?! I went trough the pdf but i don't feel like going trough the 280 pages of this thread.



Just keep it short, don't need the novel explication.

1- Do you only fade those level, does your plan only ''plan" fade trade?
As over eur/usd 1.3681 today been broke easily and was acting like S/R before.
Of how much pips over a level you consider it broken?


2-is there a reason for a 40 pips SL - have you experience that it cover some false breakout?

3-Some stacking block got spike in, do you consider it as the level or you will focus on matching H/L?
I saw that you got some line that are preatty close to each other, i tough maby it would explain why.

4-Do you always close half position at 50 fibs from H/L?

5-If the price make the full ride S to R do you renter at R.

6- Would you clarify your view about equities and Fx relation.
When US equities are going down US dollars is ???? I'm watching the DJ, should i look at sp500 instead.



No rush, answer me when you feel like.
Thx again for valuable info!

Inz!



---------------------
By the way, video are really helpful and your voice is A1
Obviously you know your stuff and i like that! - take care!
  • #4,325
  • Oct 14, 2008 2:30pm Oct 14, 2008 2:30pm
Hi BRV,

Thank you for doing a great job with this thread and your blog!

At the beginning, you mentioned that sometimes "big boys" use such indicators as Price Channels, MA, MACD, pivots etc. Would that be for occasional "2nd opinion/alternative view" or for standalone trading strategies?

You also mentioned in your sample trading plan "sell for dummies". What does that mean?

Many thanks!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,326
  • Oct 14, 2008 9:42pm Oct 14, 2008 9:42pm
....top of highs and overall a key area
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  • #4,327
  • Oct 14, 2008 9:45pm Oct 14, 2008 9:45pm
Another key zone and lining up with a 50% retracement form the last major wave. 1.7842 is also marked up here. If the fade is weak and the level gets taken out, thats the next area to be looking at.
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  • #4,328
  • Oct 14, 2008 9:46pm Oct 14, 2008 9:46pm
Its a ways away but keeping down the long dollar exposure from the other trades.
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  • #4,329
  • Oct 14, 2008 10:06pm Oct 14, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Another key zone and lining up with a 50% retracement form the last major wave. 1.7842 is also marked up here. If the fade is weak and the level gets taken out, thats the next area to be looking at.
Nice! We have some unclosed gaps as well.
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  • #4,330
  • Oct 14, 2008 10:21pm Oct 14, 2008 10:21pm
...just because I know theyve been a topic of question around here try to keep them coming....
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  • #4,331
  • Oct 15, 2008 1:27am Oct 15, 2008 1:27am
Quoting Inzider
Hello Mister Valentine!

May i ask you some fast question to clarify some of my interrogation?! I went trough the pdf but i don't feel like going trough the 280 pages of this thread.

Just keep it short, don't need the novel explication.

1- Do you only fade those level, does your plan only ''plan" fade trade?
As over eur/usd 1.3681 today been broke easily and was acting like S/R before.
Of how much pips over a level you consider it broken?

2-is there a reason for a 40 pips SL - have you experience that it cover some false breakout?

3-Some stacking block got spike in, do you consider it as the level or you will focus on matching H/L?
I saw that you got some line that are preatty close to each other, i tough maby it would explain why.

4-Do you always close half position at 50 fibs from H/L?

5-If the price make the full ride S to R do you renter at R.

6- Would you clarify your view about equities and Fx relation.
When US equities are going down US dollars is ???? I'm watching the DJ, should i look at sp500 instead.

No rush, answer me when you feel like.
Thx again for valuable info!

Inz!

---------------------
By the way, video are really helpful and your voice is A1
Obviously you know your stuff and i like that! - take care!
Hi there,

Hopefully these should clear some stuff up:

1- Do you only fade those level, does your plan only ''plan" fade trade?
As over eur/usd 1.3681 today been broke easily and was acting like S/R before.
Of how much pips over a level you consider it broken?

The plan can change throughout the session, without question. The intraday levels are used as general guides and more of a "heads up" for me in terms of where to expect some possible turning points. The last couple of days I have been posting very much shorter term levels though I have stretched them out a little further today, and will do so going forward.

Alot of other trades usually present themselves throughout the sesions based on newly developed price action.

2-is there a reason for a 40 pips SL - have you experience that it cover some false breakout?

I use the -40 pip stop loss on the bigger levels because they should in all right faithfully hold, and turn more or less "on the dime". Usually the bigger levels have "ranges" of support/resistance (eg a fib level might be 10 or 20 pips away from a s/r level) so I more or less look to cover myself in terms of that. But I will, from time to time, experience more drawdown than just 40 pips because I'm looking for an overall fundamantal reversal, so I'll hang in the trade until it comes. Money management is key. Too much leverage you cant do that, and you lose.

3-Some stacking block got spike in, do you consider it as the level or you will focus on matching H/L?
I saw that you got some line that are preatty close to each other, i tough maby it would explain why.

Sorry not too clear on this question could you perhaps explain in another way?

4-Do you always close half position at 50 fibs from H/L?

No, most of the time I have a predetermined full price target and will let the position run until it gets hit. The 50 pip take partial rule can be used in uncertainty though and has save me a few bucks along the way.

The math behind you overall trading plan has to work out. If you're taking partial all the time, chances are you will probably make less money in the long run. Out of all the posts Ive written here I think this is one of the most important ones for this reason: http://nobrainertrades.blogspot.com/...t-of-your.html

5-If the price make the full ride S to R do you renter at R.

Sometimes yes.

6- Would you clarify your view about equities and Fx relation.
When US equities are going down US dollars is ???? I'm watching the DJ, should i look at sp500 instead.

I look at the S&P because it is more inclusive of a wider range of stocks in general. In this market, the reverse of what you have been saying is true. Its a long story but the short end of it is that as world equities have been declining lately, the dollar is getting stronger, maily due to investors liquidiating their portfolios. That has been ringing true except for the dollar against the yen, because the yen is used heavily for carry trades. When investors remove risk (sell equities) they will sell carry trades as well, as it is an investment used to collect interest on through holding long positions. But when they dont want the risk, they will sell carry trades, sinking the dollar against the yen. It is more of a function of people buying yen than selling dollars.
  • #4,332
  • Oct 15, 2008 1:32am Oct 15, 2008 1:32am
Quoting Forex007
Hi BRV,

Thank you for doing a great job with this thread and your blog!

At the beginning, you mentioned that sometimes "big boys" use such indicators as Price Channels, MA, MACD, pivots etc. Would that be for occasional "2nd opinion/alternative view" or for standalone trading strategies?

You also mentioned in your sample trading plan "sell for dummies". What does that mean?

Many thanks!
Hi there and thanks! Sometimes yes, I mean, indicators are used by big and small, without question. There are a huge amount of strategies out there and technical indicators become a part of many of them. But the levels, in terms of our intraday stuff, are the best bet as they are a global convention that everyone can follow. That's why they work so well.

Sell for dummies is just a way of saying a very obvious trade that shouldn't be missed. Sorry, I have to remember sometimes that only about half of the people reading this thread have english as their primary language .
  • #4,333
  • Oct 15, 2008 1:34am Oct 15, 2008 1:34am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
...just because I know theyve been a topic of question around here try to keep them coming....

This was a good +80 pip trade again.....these suckers are everywhere just have to spot them .
  • #4,334
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:01am Oct 15, 2008 2:01am
....pretty obvious one for now....
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  • #4,335
  • Oct 15, 2008 2:36am Oct 15, 2008 2:36am
I have taken a few BRV style trades now... It is scary to me as I have always traded of bar patterns before. When I see it work it amazes me! Thanks for the great thread and blog brv. Nice new videos on the blog .

One trade on GJ took off like a rocket, 50 pips in less than 5 minuets. Do you find that most of your winners take off really fast? Or do they wonder sideways for a while before taking off? Thanks!

Best Regards,

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,336
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:03am Oct 15, 2008 3:03am
Quoting aSandman
When I see it work it amazes me!

Thanks for the great thread and blog brv.

Nice new videos on the blog .

One trade on GJ took off like a rocket
Ditto on everything Sandman!

Really nice to see trades just bounce into
profit in no time.

Thanks BRV!
  • #4,337
  • Edited 3:22am Oct 15, 2008 3:09am | Edited 3:22am
Ok I did it.....you can actually SEE them now, thanks to viddler.com.

Just use the full screen button in the lower right and youre good. Thanks for the recommendation. http://nobrainertrades.blogspot.com/search/label/Videos
  • #4,338
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:10am Oct 15, 2008 3:10am
Quoting aSandman
I have taken a few BRV style trades now... It is scary to me as I have always traded of bar patterns before. When I see it work it amazes me! Thanks for the great thread and blog brv. Nice new videos on the blog .

One trade on GJ took off like a rocket, 50 pips in less than 5 minuets. Do you find that most of your winners take off really fast? Or do they wonder sideways for a while before taking off? Thanks!

Best Regards,

Jason

Awesome Jason....nice work....feel free to post anything you might have. We're pretty good at feeding off of one another around here .
  • #4,339
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:18am Oct 15, 2008 3:18am
Hi BRV, you have added a line to your fibo lines. The one between 61.8 and 100, which is a 76.2. (Same as the 23.6 but on the other side).
Do you find it a strong fibo level to use?
I think so since you give more value to the 50 and 61.8, then the 76.2 might be good as well?
Thanks and good luck
Max
  • #4,340
  • Oct 15, 2008 3:26am Oct 15, 2008 3:26am
Quoting dorellino
Hi BRV, you have added a line to your fibo lines. The one between 61.8 and 100, which is a 76.2. (Same as the 23.6 but on the other side).
Do you find it a strong fibo level to use?
I think so since you give more value to the 50 and 61.8, then the 76.2 might be good as well?
Thanks and good luck
Max
Hi Max, Its a 764 retracement actually sry I think there might be a typo in my work there. I do yes, and I look at it all the time and so do a great majority of other traders. Some of our best trades posted here have been off of that mark. I wouldn't discount it by any means. Those 3 you listed above hold the most weight for me.
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