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No Brainer Trades

  • #4,261
  • Oct 12, 2008 10:05am Oct 12, 2008 10:05am
Quoting birdt
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment."

Jim Horning


So, it follows that you should make the most of these experiences. Some days you win, some days you learn. I have found the most efficient way to develop as a trader is first to write a trading plan. Then, execute the trading plan as best you can, whilst keeping a journal and logging all trades (with their vital statistics for you to come back to later). Review your trades, take screenshots of the trade idea, then the lower time frame price action, your entry, then where you exit, and even what followed after. Then you can see what works and what does not, and after a while when you have built up enough data you can tweak the trading plan. No-one ever got profitable in forex without working from a plan. Some people might have it in their head, but for the most part writing it down in black and white is the way to go. You might think that you can get away without doing this, or it sounds like too much work, or these rules do not apply to you. Well, if that is the case then you might as well quit now, because there are no shortcuts.

I like that. This quote is going at the top of my disaster wall. You're dead on; there are no shortcuts. I aim here to help out clarify a strategy that works, but in terms of trading that, again, experience. Alot of this stuff I figured out on my own with the guidance of some influence sure but overall it came through experience.

I get a lot of questions and though I can easily get online here and answer them but 99% of them can be answered through time and just staring at charts and reading the news. That's pretty much it. I applaud anyone thats posting stuff here because theyre trying and are going to have better success than others; I dont applaud anyone looking for trading signals; theyll most likely always be broke (atleast in trading fx)
  • #4,262
  • Oct 12, 2008 10:56am Oct 12, 2008 10:56am
Hi BillyRay,

I was wondering, how often should we redraw our S&R levels? For example, if I mark up S&R's on EUR/USD, should I leave those levels for the next whole day and try to trade from those levels only, or should I redraw some levels, especially on smaller time frames (M15), where adaptations seem to be required more often?

I've posted an EUR/USD example for Monday.

Thank you!
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  • #4,263
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:15pm Oct 12, 2008 1:15pm
Quoting spekitox
The more time I spend round here the more I am convinced that No Brainer is definitely a misnomer for this stuff. Coz in fact it is Experience-based HyperBrainer trading. No indicators, no handrail, only you and the prices. It is pure pattern recognition, an ability of our brains - and it is something that cannot be automated or expressed with mechanical rules. So Barak, don't get discouraged after two weeks of trying. Maybe after 22 weeks.

Very good point and I would have to agree 100 percent. Good traders have been after it a while, ie years. Their is also a conflict in the rules in that you trade off obvious support and resistance... and the bucket is anything but obvious. Its hidden support and resistance inside congestion. A good way to practice it might be to draw out that congestion in a visual range, then look for a fib ret inside it or on top of it. Look for the trade going with the current trend and use the width of the range as your stop loss.
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,264
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:21pm Oct 12, 2008 1:21pm
No Brainer is not a misnomer, IMHO. Once you understand it, it is so simple that it takes "no brains." You can just look at a chart and "know". It becomes second nature like walking or riding a bike. You don't think about it, you just do it. Just remember, even after decades of experience sometimes one may stumble, trip, fall or lose their balance. After all, we are human.
  • #4,265
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:44pm Oct 12, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting birdt
Barak,
About stop losses and profit targeting each situation is different, each currency is different, each day has different volatility and each personality is different. For instance, you could have a higher time frame bias to the long side and want to use 'the bucket' to get in as it would offer excellent R:R and the success% you feel is good because the method you have tested the higher time frame bias upon is tested or based on firm fundamental theory, you approach the potential support offered by the inside of the bucket and you see something you like so you take the trade. In this situation you might be more willing to withstand a bit more of a stoploss because not only does the lower time frame price action (reduction in momentum, 5m doji, 15m abandoned baby, whatever) have context with the probability of support existing there because you have seen these inside bucket formations hold time and time again, but you also have the higher time frame bias. So if it did break down you could sit on it a while longer, it may be an overshoot or there is more support below where buyers may kick in. Were you just hoping to scalp out a few pips then once the area was surpassed you could close out the trade as soon as you felt the trade idea was no longer valid. This is a personal thing, I like hiding my stops behind market structure, but I know others will exit if it goes against them 20 pips as they hate seeing red of any sort in their account. Whatever works for you. As for profit targets, doesn't that depend on so many factors too? I know some traders do very well using a set number of pips SL and TP, the same across every pair but I can't live with that. Support and resistance is the name of the game so I plan to place my entries on S/R, my SL beyond S/R and my TP before S/R. It is entirely down to the individual and the situation. BRV can't tell you how to trade, that is up to you to figure out for yourself.

Hope this helps,

PS. think of areas of consolidation being retested, there is a reason for this - the market heads to where the orders are. Price moves when there are no transactions taking place between buyers and sellers. So if price is falling it will keep falling into buyers come into the market and this will occur at a point where they believe value exists in the market. Their orders, and their perception of value, are very often found at past points of congestion.
Birdt you have just removed a veil from my eyes, light has dawned on me by what you said.THANK YOU VERY MUCH
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #4,266
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:29pm Oct 12, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting okehiedon
Birdt you have just removed a veil from my eyes, light has dawned on me by what you said.THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Thanks birdt for this quote below. I think it is crucial that we remember this at all times ... very well put and also very important.

Thanks again,
Gareth

"Think of areas of consolidation being retested, there is a reason for this - the market heads to where the orders are. Price moves when there are no transactions taking place between buyers and sellers. So if price is falling it will keep falling into buyers come into the market and this will occur at a point where they believe value exists in the market. Their orders, and their perception of value, are very often found at past points of congestion." birdt
  • #4,267
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:11pm Oct 12, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting spekitox
The more time I spend round here the more I am convinced that No Brainer is definitely a misnomer for this stuff. Coz in fact it is Experience-based HyperBrainer trading. No indicators, no handrail, only you and the prices. It is pure pattern recognition, an ability of our brains - and it is something that cannot be automated or expressed with mechanical rules. So Barak, don't get discouraged after two weeks of trying. Maybe after 22 weeks.

Yes and no....I realize that as I post these areas many others have done quite the same and we've had a huge success out of people pretty much starting from scratch and understanding the basics here.

The more complicated I make things and the more materials I add I notice prompt more and more questions from the crowd, but the basics are ALWAYS what I fall back on, and the basics are the EASIEST to learn.

My one piece of advice here is to not try to overcomplicate things. I know I post a lot of stuff that can be confusing to a beginner (outside the basic levels) but just stick to what's posted in the very first post of this thread and let the rest follow.....it really is that simple .
  • #4,268
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:18pm Oct 12, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting Sanook
Dear BRV,

First off, thanks for this thread.

Could you please confirm if I'm understanding what you do correctly. I've included a EUR/USD chart and marked the levels as I see them.

Coming from mostly trading fundamentals, I'm finding it difficult to come to terms with what appears to be random entries off S&R. However, looking back at the charts I can see that these S&R levels do hold up quite well. The problem I have, and it stems from my usually trading with a fundamental bias, is what to do at each of these levels.

So lets say tomorrow we see price rise up to 1.3450 and the hourly close cannot penetrate that level, I'd then place a short trade with a stop +40 above the next level, which would place the stop at 1.3540. Or does the stop only go a few points above the next level?

However, if price should stay around 1.3390 and an hourly close seems to be having a difficult time penetrating it, then a long entry would be considered with a stop just below 1.3255, with possibly adding another long if price heads down towards the 50% fib. level of the recent wave.

Is this basically in a nutshell what you do. You have no bias, you just trade the levels as you see them. So if you did place a short at 1.3450 and it reversed on you and closed on the hourly, penetrating the 1.3450 level, you'd then go long aiming for the next resistance level?

I tried this on Friday and most of the trades got stopped out. If however I'd have had a short bias, things might have been different. Or is it just the case that in the current climate of panic, it's probably better to stay on the sidelines until everything has calmed down?

Regards.

I sort of started in your shoes as well.

My trading plan is always something like this:

1. Use fundamentals to predict the general direction of the market for the day

2. Wait for price to move against this prediction and either buy or sell into your prediction at the biggest areas of s/r. Its where the orders get stacked up and price has a hard time getting by.

3. Wait for your trade to develop and realize your "fundamental" outlook come true.

If price action is telling you otherwise (hourly closes, etc) meaning you might have gotten in too early, etc., just roll with them and dont try to fight them.

Yeah you pretty much have it in the above. I just more or less listen to the market by looking at price action and roll with the punches. The "reality Realization....." etc article more or less explains how I move about things in terms of price.

And by the way Fridays are big profit taking days and we're in anything but a calm market right now. Always expect the unexpected on Fridays in general.

And thanks for the comments!
  • #4,269
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:42pm Oct 12, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
1.3661 looks the best here right now
hi BRV

i have a question about this trade . can you tell me why you entered at 1.3661? because i cant see any reason to long at 1.3661 , and i long at 1.3700 because of the previous resistance
http://i33.tinypic.com/256gr34.gif
  • #4,270
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:53pm Oct 12, 2008 5:53pm
First thank you for your help, reading your blog, have been really helpful to me.
Second, my English is not very good so im going a try to write
And third, a Question:

Actually im not able to work only with your system because i dont feel very comfortable drawing my own supports or resistences, im still learning how you do it.
In your blog, there is a part where you talk about why some indicators fail, and in there you talk about pivot point.
I trade more or less in the same way but the difference is that I use those pivot points and stochastic.
Well, what I read and understood is that if im going to work in the US session then I should use the close of the US session to take my pivot points. if im going to work in the european session then i should use the close of the european session to take my pivont points.
Well please tell me if I understood that part well, as I tell you my english is not to good and I wouldnt like to misunderstood any part of your information.
Thanks again,
And Im sorry to all the other people who dont like any indicator, Im trying to quit of them but is not easy.



  • #4,271
  • Oct 12, 2008 7:34pm Oct 12, 2008 7:34pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Can anyone recommend some brokers for buying gold?
Try ODL...
  • #4,272
  • Oct 12, 2008 7:51pm Oct 12, 2008 7:51pm
Billy

Your advice and time is much appreciated.One question please<do u place your stop at 40 pips from your entry or 40 from the next s/r level.

Thanks Gerard
  • #4,273
  • Edited Oct 13, 2008 12:15am Oct 12, 2008 11:14pm | Edited Oct 13, 2008 12:15am
Ok first thing's first - no making fun of my voice

I threw up a couple videos on the blog to help answer some questions. The visual quality is pretty bad (youtube default) I realize but I'm working on it. Just a heads up. Hopefully this'll work out. Thanks,
  • #4,274
  • Oct 13, 2008 12:19am Oct 13, 2008 12:19am
Quoting bapho
hi BRV

i have a question about this trade . can you tell me why you entered at 1.3661? because i cant see any reason to long at 1.3661 , and i long at 1.3700 because of the previous resistance
http://i33.tinypic.com/256gr34.gif
Hi bapho, it was because of the degree of selling going on at the time.

When price was approaching the 3700 area, there was a steep selloff taking place, and price charged down in a relatively short amount of time after hanging out in the high 37's for a while. When you see that kind of aggressive selling going on, you want to look lower, and I felt that 40 pips lower from the 3700 range was the appropriate number. It was a judgement call more than anything else, based on a 1hr oversold conditions (when 3700 was hit price was more or less "in the beginning" of its potential selloff, with more downside risk still there.
  • #4,275
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:13am Oct 13, 2008 1:13am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Ok first thing's first - no making fun of my voice

I threw up a couple videos on the blog to help answer some questions. The visual quality is pretty bad (youtube default) I realize but I'm working on it. Just a heads up. Hopefully this'll work out. Thanks,
Thanks for the effort Billy Ray (though the charts are hard to see), by the way there's nothing wrong with your voice...
  • #4,276
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:15am Oct 13, 2008 1:15am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
The more complicated I make things and the more materials I add I notice prompt more and more questions from the crowd, but the basics are ALWAYS what I fall back on, and the basics are the EASIEST to learn.

My one piece of advice here is to not try to overcomplicate things. I know I post a lot of stuff that can be confusing to a beginner (outside the basic levels) but just stick to what's posted in the very first post of this thread and let the rest follow.....it really is that simple .
Thanks for pointing this out again! I've learned from you how to trade on shorter time frames and the importance of S&R levels (+ a lot of other stuff) and I've learned from Jacko to keep things simple, no matter what (nevertheless, you also promote this idea quite often! )

Thaaaaanks!!!
  • #4,277
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:56am Oct 13, 2008 1:56am
Nice and easy intraday breakout of resistance...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,278
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:58am Oct 13, 2008 1:58am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Nice and easy intraday breakout of resistance...
i was caught in short,hehe from 13535
  • #4,279
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:04am Oct 13, 2008 4:04am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Ok first thing's first - no making fun of my voice

I threw up a couple videos on the blog to help answer some questions. The visual quality is pretty bad (youtube default) I realize but I'm working on it. Just a heads up. Hopefully this'll work out. Thanks,
Hi Billy

You asked if anyone knew of a better way to record videos. Have a look at this site http://www.viddler.com/learn-more/#overview
I have seen it been used on other blogs for FX demonstrations. You can enlarge the chart to be full screen and get very good clarity.

You can link the player to your blog. The service/software is free.

C
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #4,280
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:18am Oct 13, 2008 4:18am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Nice and easy intraday breakout of resistance...
Excellent example, BRV, thank you for sharing! When people who have a dozen of indicators on chart (well, I do - but they are either "service" ones like candle time or MAs for "2nd opinion" ) they cannot believe one can make a 100-pip trade without any indicator.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
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