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Sonic
- #14,342
- Oct 10, 2008 5:43pm Oct 10, 2008 5:43pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
Looks like it passed 900. hmm
- #14,343
- Oct 10, 2008 7:51pm Oct 10, 2008 7:51pm
Yep still crazy this week vix @ 70 = stay out, you can get lucky and make money but I don't trade on luck
Took your advice ....
[quote=Ryanmcd;2263255]Poker is a lot like the market to be honest, I am lucky I have the brother pro poker player to thank I just went a different direction. If you want you can ring the register when it's hot, I used to over and over on the S&P my goal was 3-5 a day but sometimes I did 10-15, what I do now is stop after 2-3 losses so I don't go tilt. / quote
and got really lucky this week
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
- #14,344
- Oct 11, 2008 12:03am Oct 11, 2008 12:03am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Pin bar on the GBP/JPN daily ?
remember the overall trend??
I believe . . .
- #14,345
- Oct 11, 2008 2:05am Oct 11, 2008 2:05am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
the pin bar is perfect the location is not.
remember the overall trend??
But as a reversal Pin Bar, off of a PPZ 165.00-166.00 from 2000/2001, it is in a perfect location. A potiental "A" trade my friend. Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #14,346
- Oct 11, 2008 2:22am Oct 11, 2008 2:22am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
If you are playing only Pin Bars with the trend you are correct ghous, not in a good location.
But as a reversal Pin Bar, off of a PPZ 165.00-166.00 from 2000/2001, it is in a perfect location. A potiental "A" trade my friend. Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Jim
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #14,347
- Oct 11, 2008 3:02am Oct 11, 2008 3:02am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
agreed. it does lie on an overall support trendline for the downtrend, but i just can't forget the last two times i got burnt trying to go countertrend, this setup is a bit better than the ones i took earlier but again the bearish momentum is seriosuly disturbing me...
Regards,
Ghous.
Once bit, twice shy. Or twice bit three times shy.
Very understandable and smart. Just be open to the possibility. 8 Hour and
4 hour Price Action may show the way.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #14,348
- Oct 11, 2008 3:13am Oct 11, 2008 3:13am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #14,349
- Edited 5:03am Oct 11, 2008 4:30am | Edited 5:03am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts
- #14,350
- Oct 11, 2008 4:36am Oct 11, 2008 4:36am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
i see a few problems with the Gu setup as well, again there is nothing wrong with the pin bar itself and looks in perfect shape, but if you look to trade this you're going countertrend, noweven if you want to believe that Pin bars do work as reversal signals which ofcaorse is true and that Gu maybe reversing (the divergence is agreeing too) which may also be true, trading this particular pin bar is not what i am looking to do.
the major reason being the hurdles that price will come across in quick successions if it wants to reverse.
1) the 1.72 ppz,
2) the long term support trendline
also take note of these 2 hurdles that the price will need to jump over and the short distance in which they occur...
and finally condier the possibility of any or both of these hurdles proving too strong to be broken, what do we then get?? a great breakout-pullback trade, which i'll be anxiously looking for...
insipte of all this the pin bar may of course work out and best of luck to those who trade it, but aas far as i am concerned this is not the kind of trade i will look to go for given that it will have the added disadvantage of going against the trend.
Regards,
Ghous.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #14,351
- Oct 11, 2008 4:56am Oct 11, 2008 4:56am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
The trend is ultimately still down....but no it is not a good time for SHORT..
GBP/JPY has a long legged Doji on D1 TF.. a near Hammer pattern.
I believe there gona be some bounce up from here..
I will place my Long(Buy Stop) at 173.2x...with SL below 165.9x....
Immediate target 173.4x ... level...
I will be in small lots and trail closely with my TP as I have going against the overall trend...
I will think of the flip side..if the price fail to take my LONG order on Monday..
Have a nice weekend...Guys
Sonic
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #14,352
- Edited 7:11am Oct 11, 2008 6:46am | Edited 7:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts
i think you got me worng ofcaorse a short right now is perhaps the most foolish thing to do, it's just that i feel that a long may not be the best thing to do either, i may look for short once we see some retracment occuring from the pin bar and then a bearish PA, i am not going short monday open bro.
Regards,
Ghous.
Sure thing buddy....
Well Done on ur GBP/USD analysis too... Here some fine example about trend trading and counter trend trading...From Jay...
If trading were football, trend trading would be the long pass to the former track runner turned wide reciever, while counter-trend trading is handing the ball off the 2nd string running back and hope you get a couple of yards.
Sonic
- #14,353
- Oct 11, 2008 7:07am Oct 11, 2008 7:07am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Sure thing buddy....
Here some fine example about trend trading and counter trend trading...From Jay...
Sonic
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #14,354
- Oct 11, 2008 7:10am Oct 11, 2008 7:10am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: I keep my eyes open | 1,108 Posts
I will place my Long(Buy Stop) at 173.2x...with SL below 165.9x....
Immediate target 173.4x ... level...
Even if that profit target is just the first of many planned.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
- #14,355
- Oct 11, 2008 7:23am Oct 11, 2008 7:23am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Doesn't sound like a goo RR ratio to me...
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #14,356
- Oct 11, 2008 7:52am Oct 11, 2008 7:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,069 Posts
if you look to follow the strategy of placing your stop on the other side of the PA setup you will end with this kind of a RR mostly when you trade the better of the setups, just like in this case, if the Gj pin works out (it's in perfect shape!) you make a hell lot of money if it does'nt you'll loose too much, for this reason i personally don't follow this kind of a stop strategy. although i am not keen on taking the Gj long if i did i would watch the traingle setup on the 4H, maybe a breakout, a pullback and then a continuation of it's way up, in that case my Sl would lie on the trendline provided i get a PA setup to confirm a final bounce this should help eliminate the high risk you're putting yourelf into by placing the stop far below the nose of the pin simultaneously time yourself better through a lower tf.
Regards,
Ghous.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1223728019
Nice and precise set up buddy....
Me on the D1 TF...so my SL is kinda wide...OK with me thou...
Sonic
- #14,357
- Oct 11, 2008 8:35am Oct 11, 2008 8:35am
Here some fine example about trend trading and counter trend trading...From Jay...
Sonic
If I understand PPZ we are in a ppz now in GU. We are suposed to look for PA at the PPZ. Further we looking for a lot of space and out of traffic pin bars. The GU pin has tons space. It also took out and closed above 1.7000 a huge round number. Its at a swing low ... lol. I'm not saying that the trend is over just saying if you like playing bounces a break of Fridays high could give a nice bounce. Is this not a J16 A grade trade?
edit: forgot to upload chart
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
- #14,358
- Oct 11, 2008 8:55am Oct 11, 2008 8:55am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
That's another good one Sonic! Thank you for the laugh this morning my friend. Ryans "Someone throwing rocks at your head " is still king imho. Everyone will be pro trend in times like these. Its when the market turns in consolidation and chops the hell out of you that the rubber meets the road. James talks about being able to trade threw that with PA. It is that very area I wish to improve the most in.
If I understand PPZ we are in a ppz now in GU. We are suposed to look for PA at the PPZ. Further we looking for a lot of space and out of traffic pin bars. The GU pin has tons space. It also took out and closed above 1.7000 a huge round number. Its at a swing low ... lol. I'm not saying that the trend is over just saying if you like playing bounces a break of Fridays high could give a nice bounce. Is this not a J16 A grade trade?
edit: forgot to upload chart
Jason
besides you should not expect a price level as important as 1.7 to be pireced through like hot knife through butter. i am still on a short bias.
I believe . . .
- #14,359
- Oct 11, 2008 10:33am Oct 11, 2008 10:33am
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
