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  • #4,221
  • Oct 10, 2008 4:18am Oct 10, 2008 4:18am
Quoting hendrix
Well, I don't use indicators, I don't watch the news (that frequently), I don't watch for correlations, yet, I'm still profitable and happy. Oh, and I only trade EUR/USD.

This system is great and if a S&R level will hold depends on the current market conditions and price action. Nevertheless, sometimes these levels will fail no matter what, but until your profits are greater than losses and you are at least 50% of the time correct, you have nothing to worry about.

Remember, if you have a $20.000 account and you risk 1,5% per trade (with a 40 pip SL) and you manage to get "only" 120 pips per week, thats 3.600 USD per month!

I don't know about you guys, but that's more than enough for me. It really is.
HALLELUJAH
  • #4,222
  • Oct 10, 2008 5:42am Oct 10, 2008 5:42am
what's wrong today ? nothing seem to work - I know it's friday and all ...

how do you think gold rises will effect the eur\usd , on one hand it suppose to go north , but the general and previous 2 day trend is down ...

Barak
  • #4,223
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:18am Oct 10, 2008 6:18am
Quoting Barak's pip
what's wrong today ? nothing seem to work - I know it's friday and all ...

how do you think gold rises will effect the eur\usd , on one hand it suppose to go north , but the general and previous 2 day trend is down ...

Barak
I guess the best thing to look for when watching correlations are major S&R levels only. When Oil, for example, hits a major resistance line, that could possibly signal a short-term reversal in EUR/USD too. It's the same with Gold and US Dollar Index.

However, BillyRay pointed out a few times, that Oil/Gold/$USD don't "drive" currency pairs and nor do currency pairs drive Oil/Gold/$USD.

My experience is that if I watch too many things at once I get "scared" of pulling the trigger and tend to miss many good opportunities. On the other hand, if I limit myself to the most important news only and keeping an eye on "live" news from Oanda's news service (IFR Research?), I am much more confident. I find the "EUR/USD Trading Page" from IFR very helpful as those levels tend to hold most of the time.
  • #4,224
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:30am Oct 10, 2008 6:30am
Hi all,

Does anyone know if BRV is posting levels today? He usually does it by midnight or so.
  • #4,225
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:37am Oct 10, 2008 6:37am
Quoting Barak's pip

Birdt , what do you mean by finding s\r levels by locate them on the inside of the bucket ?
Buckets as I see them:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,226
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:38am Oct 10, 2008 6:38am
Quoting hendrix
I guess the best thing to look for when watching correlations are major S&R levels only. When Oil, for example, hits a major resistance line, that could possibly signal a short-term reversal in EUR/USD too. It's the same with Gold and US Dollar Index.

However, BillyRay pointed out a few times, that Oil/Gold/$USD don't "drive" currency pairs and nor do currency pairs drive Oil/Gold/$USD.

My experience is that if I watch too many things at once I get "scared" of pulling the trigger and tend to miss many good opportunities. On the other hand, if I limit myself to the most important news only and keeping an eye on "live" news from Oanda's news service (IFR Research?), I am much more confident. I find the "EUR/USD Trading Page" from IFR very helpful as those levels tend to hold most of the time.
Could you post a link for this page please?
  • #4,227
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:42am Oct 10, 2008 6:42am
Quoting hendrix
I guess the best thing to look for when watching correlations are major S&R levels only. When Oil, for example, hits a major resistance line, that could possibly signal a short-term reversal in EUR/USD too. It's the same with Gold and US Dollar Index.

However, BillyRay pointed out a few times, that Oil/Gold/$USD don't "drive" currency pairs and nor do currency pairs drive Oil/Gold/$USD.

My experience is that if I watch too many things at once I get "scared" of pulling the trigger and tend to miss many good opportunities. On the other hand, if I limit myself to the most important news only and keeping an eye on "live" news from Oanda's news service (IFR Research?), I am much more confident. I find the "EUR/USD Trading Page" from IFR very helpful as those levels tend to hold most of the time.
Hi can u send the link for the ifr page?
Thanks
Max
  • #4,228
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:18am Oct 10, 2008 7:18am
Quoting birdt
Buckets as I see them:
Nice chart bird. If that one does not clear it up, I don't think anything can . Seems like Fridays are good days to take off from forex. Since watching the charts everyday in forex for the past few months most of the action seems to happen after the orb shake out at the start of the week. Have you guys observered this too? It trades differantly than stocks or index futures.

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #4,229
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:32am Oct 10, 2008 7:32am
Quoting hendrix
I guess the best thing to look for when watching correlations are major S&R levels only. When Oil, for example, hits a major resistance line, that could possibly signal a short-term reversal in EUR/USD too. It's the same with Gold and US Dollar Index.

However, BillyRay pointed out a few times, that Oil/Gold/$USD don't "drive" currency pairs and nor do currency pairs drive Oil/Gold/$USD.

My experience is that if I watch too many things at once I get "scared" of pulling the trigger and tend to miss many good opportunities. On the other hand, if I limit myself to the most important news only and keeping an eye on "live" news from Oanda's news service (IFR Research?), I am much more confident. I find the "EUR/USD Trading Page" from IFR very helpful as those levels tend to hold most of the time.
hi Hendrix , thanks for reply - I join also to the request of link to that page you've mentioned.
  • #4,230
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:44am Oct 10, 2008 7:44am
Quoting birdt
Buckets as I see them:

thank you very much my friend , for the help ,

I attached also a chart , just to see if I got it right , and also to show this fib levels that seems pritty good .

so , each time that a bucket forms , you take the inside and the out side as s&r ?
what about those long tail candles , as I saw in your drawing (nice) you put several r&s for each side how do you know which one of them is the right one to get in position ?

soorrry for all the questions , but it looks like you're a true expet in this , and I hope one day I'll be able to help the new ones thanks to your help...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,231
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:49am Oct 10, 2008 7:49am
Hi all, I wasnt around for London AM today but just posted som quick thinks in the blog....here's what I'm looking at for GBP today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,232
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:14am Oct 10, 2008 8:14am
Quoting aSandman
Seems like Fridays are good days to take off from forex. Since watching the charts everyday in forex for the past few months most of the action seems to happen after the orb shake out at the start of the week. Have you guys observered this too? It trades differantly than stocks or index futures.

Jason
I think you might be right Jason, Fridays are generally the most awkward trading day of the week for me personally and that seems to jive with other traders experience too. I suppose it comes down to trading style though. I think the reason Fridays appear to act differently from the other days of the week is 1) important data often comes out of the US on a Friday so the European session is waiting on that and 2) money managers do not want to risk holding positions over the weekend and 3) to a lesser extent we have interest swaps on a Friday. These three factors should influence the markets at least in theory, perhaps even to the benefit of the support and resistance traders. When the market is so emotional, as it has been this week, what I had marked up as solid support and resistance levels were just getting crushed as no-one wants to pick bottoms against this sort of momentum. If there is at least some sort of profit taking (which I expect would occur upon S/R to maximise gains) then these levels should at least have some significance. As a general rule though (and this is presented in TheRealThing's One Night Stand method, see www.infiniteyield.com) if the lows or highs of the last 10 days are broken on a Friday, it is profitable to go with the flow. So, in this situation look for break and retests/near term S/R with the market for a statistical edge.
  • #4,233
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:26am Oct 10, 2008 8:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi all, I wasnt around for London AM today but just posted som quick thinks in the blog....here's what I'm looking at for GBP today:
1.7142 we're agreeing here could be a good tipping point if it breaks 7100 here just to note....its not on the chart above I missed it earlier.
  • #4,234
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:27am Oct 10, 2008 8:27am
Quoting Barak's pip
soorrry for all the questions , but it looks like you're a true expet in this , and I hope one day I'll be able to help the new ones thanks to your help...
BRV is the expert mate, I'm just rambling on my understanding of it (which could well be wrong). His explanations are the only ones that you should really take any notice of.

The bucket formations are something that I have only looked at recently since BRV introduced them, but I realized that I had been looking at them already but in a different way. Like many of the conventional chart formations which contain them - the most obvious being a wedge making progressively higher lows, each low finding support on the inside of the bucket in the previous wave, when you really distill these patterns and principles it all comes down to predictable support and resistance. Making that your edge should be your priority.
  • #4,235
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:39am Oct 10, 2008 8:39am
"normal" (for this market) correlations are a little off today I suspect on profit taking scenarios going on because its Friday (eg GBP's strength early in the US session here). This post from BirdT is a good one for anyone that missed it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4205

read the pdf. its a good wrapup up correlations and whats going on out there in general.

By the way I know there are a lot of posts, etc hanging out there I havent responded to I'll get around to it when I get some free time
  • #4,236
  • Oct 10, 2008 9:12am Oct 10, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Willowgal
Could you post a link for this page please?
This is something BRV was telling us about.

1) https://fxtrade.oanda.com/your_accou...ading_platform

2) FXGame platform will start

3) Resources -> FX News

4) Happy reading!

You can look for "EUR/USD Trading Page", "GBP/USD Trading Page" and so on.

Yesterday I was looking to go long EUR/USD @ 1.5700, but then I saw their message, that they were expecting a support @ (I don't remember where), and I canceled my order. Good thing I did because it went right through 1.5700 and it rebounded on the level they were expecting it to (but I did not take the trade because the pair was falling kind of sharply).

I saw quite many such examples so far.

Btw, BRV, thanks again for telling us about this news service!
  • #4,237
  • Oct 10, 2008 9:27am Oct 10, 2008 9:27am
The diagonal trendline was the winner here for a 70 something pip correction so far.

I'm looking for a close below 1.7050 to confirm any lower targets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #4,238
  • Oct 10, 2008 9:34am Oct 10, 2008 9:34am
Hi! BillyRayValentine,

just wanted to say you thx for the tech. I been looking for a logic system for long time and been fall into the indicators madness. My chart was so noisy that i couldn't even see the price - joke.

Now i'm starting to understand what's happen and to rely on indic or Moving average to enter a trade.... witch was causing late entry.

Now i just need to get the feeling of price, ajust a little my MM for it. It already give really good result. Better then my old "system".

Well just wanted to say thx, and i will surely add 1 or 2 question oever the top after been going trough this full treah.... LOL

Later take care!
  • #4,239
  • Oct 10, 2008 9:58am Oct 10, 2008 9:58am
Quoting hendrix
This is something BRV was telling us about.

1) https://fxtrade.oanda.com/your_accou...ading_platform

2) FXGame platform will start

3) Resources -> FX News

4) Happy reading!

You can look for "EUR/USD Trading Page", "GBP/USD Trading Page" and so on.

Yesterday I was looking to go long EUR/USD @ 1.5700, but then I saw their message, that they were expecting a support @ (I don't remember where), and I canceled my order. Good thing I did because it went right through 1.5700 and it rebounded on the level they were expecting it to (but I did not take the trade because the pair was falling kind of sharply).

I saw quite many such examples so far.

Btw, BRV, thanks again for telling us about this news service!
hey man , thanks for the link ,

so do I need to open "fx game" account to get those messages , or a real account?

thanks.
  • #4,240
  • Oct 10, 2008 10:07am Oct 10, 2008 10:07am
so , what r we doing in a day like this that there is a bucket after a bucket ?

how do I trade this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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