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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,381
  • Oct 8, 2008 7:57pm Oct 8, 2008 7:57pm
werd...
  • #17,382
  • Oct 9, 2008 2:34am Oct 9, 2008 2:34am
Quoting Yorik
Both EU and GU formed bearish TCs at the close of 4-8:00 bar.

I took EU at 1.3573..71. Divided SL into 2 parts - 1) 1.3602 (31 pips) and 2) 1.3628 (57 pips), average 44 pips. TPs: 1) 1.3553 (21 pips, already hit) and 2) 1.3485 (85 pips); av. TP 51 pips, R:R>1.
At the moment moved SL of the part left to -21 pips. Think to trail it over the trendline on 5min.
Edit: 2nd part closed at -21. Total result: 0 pips.

TC on GU was also quite nice. Besides moving from EMA21 it might make a continuation of the downmove after the retest of the trendline, broken on Mon. 06\10\08, but SL had to be too big (even divided into 2 parts).
I did enter it at 1.3570, and after 1lot 25pips gain, I set it BE, this is successful trade.

Never forget 1lot 25pips gain!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,383
  • Oct 9, 2008 5:18am Oct 9, 2008 5:18am
Hi All,

I have been studying the material on your forum for a couple of weeks and I should say that after about a year of trying to find out my way in the fx world the information you provide is the best of the best.

Before allowing myself to start asking questions I would like to thank all of the participants starting of course with Phillip.

Thank you all!
  • #17,384
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:17am Oct 9, 2008 6:17am
Ehh.... I've missed a nice bullish TC on the closing of 04:00 bar (GMT+1) - continuation of the upmove after a retest of EMA21 crossed upwards (?).
Possible entry: 1.3660
SL - 1.3510..13 (50 pips)
TP1 - 1.3585 (25 pips), TP2 1.3660 (100 pips, upper channel border), av. TP 52.5 pips; R:R>1.
Unfortunately I've missed it, but I'm not dissapointed cos saw it forming and I feel that would have taken if were at my PC.
Hope you people used this situation!
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  • #17,385
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:42am Oct 9, 2008 6:42am
Quoting Yorik
Ehh.... I've missed a nice bullish TC on the closing of 04:00 bar (GMT+1) - continuation of the upmove after a retest of EMA21 crossed upwards (?).
Possible entry: 1.3660
SL - 1.3510..13 (50 pips)
TP1 - 1.3585 (25 pips), TP2 1.3660 (100 pips, upper channel border), av. TP 52.5 pips; R:R>1.
Unfortunately I've missed it, but I'm not dissapointed cos saw it forming and I feel that would have taken if were at my PC.
Hope you people used this situation!
I took this on. Closed half @30pips let the rest run for a while at B/E. Moved trailing stop up and it was closed for 80pips. I see is back to 1.3660 ish. So pleased with my trade. Only problem is I was short also on Swissie so net pips for the week might end up BE.....oh well.
  • #17,386
  • Oct 9, 2008 9:04am Oct 9, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Yorik
Ehh.... I've missed a nice bullish TC on the closing of 04:00 bar (GMT+1) - continuation of the upmove after a retest of EMA21 crossed upwards (?).
Possible entry: 1.3660
SL - 1.3510..13 (50 pips)
TP1 - 1.3585 (25 pips), TP2 1.3660 (100 pips, upper channel border), av. TP 52.5 pips; R:R>1.
Unfortunately I've missed it, but I'm not dissapointed cos saw it forming and I feel that would have taken if were at my PC.
Hope you people used this situation!
Missed it, I was sleeping, probably would have taken it, it was a TC off the trend line too and the candle formation looked right. Nothing else on the cards since then.
  • #17,387
  • Oct 9, 2008 9:53am Oct 9, 2008 9:53am
target1.3610
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{Promotion Removed}
  • #17,388
  • Oct 9, 2008 12:12pm Oct 9, 2008 12:12pm
Close above 21ema and pull back to below 21ema with a TC upwards for a possible move to 89sma. First TP at nearby TL

I let both positions run. Closed for +70pips by trailing stop
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  • #17,389
  • Oct 9, 2008 12:47pm Oct 9, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Close above 21ema and pull back to below 21ema with a TC upwards for a possible move to 89sma. First TP at nearby TL

I let both positions run. Closed for +70pips by trailing stop
Phillip, isn`t the above shown position with stoploss greater than 55-60 pips, that would be against the rules???
Would you comment please???
Thank you inadvance

Asen from Bulgaria
  • #17,390
  • Oct 9, 2008 1:14pm Oct 9, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting million
Phillip, isn`t the above shown position with stoploss greater than 55-60 pips, that would be against the rules???
Would you comment please???
Thank you inadvance

Asen from Bulgaria
I used the signal candle low as my stoploss as the candle before the signal candle was a little hammer and the chance was good that it wont come down to the bottom TL therefore my decision. Making stoploss 48 more or less.
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  • #17,391
  • Oct 9, 2008 1:52pm Oct 9, 2008 1:52pm
hi fellows!

what do u think about that?

USD/CHF
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  • #17,392
  • Oct 9, 2008 3:33pm Oct 9, 2008 3:33pm
I think EURUSD is on the verge of a TC if my guess is right. Its inability to sustain its upward move is obvious when it retraced back all its gains of two bars with two bars and MACD's rhythm too is in support of the TC. Looking at other pairs, EURJPY had a Head and Shoulders and also a Zero bounce off the MACD to further strengthen the TC. Likewise AUDUSD (no SHS though but Zero bounce for a TC). I think this will be be a big move.
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  • #17,393
  • Oct 9, 2008 5:42pm Oct 9, 2008 5:42pm
It looks like the EU is trying to resume the downtrend. Hard to find a daily target so I went to the weekly...yikes. The 89 is on the verge of turning down. Probable support line targets? Not sure what that might mean to the US indexes but if it's what has been happening lately...that's scarey stuff. The 1 hr is in a weak uptrend but I'm not sure I trust it too much. We'll see.

Ford $2.08 per share.
General Electric 19.01
Dell 13.43
General Motors 4.76

The list goes on....
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  • #17,394
  • Oct 9, 2008 7:14pm Oct 9, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting Palmer
It looks like the EU is trying to resume the downtrend. Hard to find a daily target so I went to the weekly...yikes. The 89 is on the verge of turning down. Probable support line targets? Not sure what that might mean to the US indexes but if it's what has been happening lately...that's scarey stuff. The 1 hr is in a weak uptrend but I'm not sure I trust it too much. We'll see.

Ford $2.08 per share.
General Electric 19.01
Dell 13.43
General Motors 4.76

The list goes on....
I drew my TL's different than what was recently posted for the EU. The others has channels drawn while my Weekly S/R formed an ascending triangle on my 4H chart.

Price closed right under the resistance line on my TC pattern so I did not take the trade. As Philip mentioned in his 3 little sisters approach that break outs always turn around so I waited. And, as always, he was right. Price reversed.

I was a sleep when it turned around so I missed that entry.
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I've been watching that 200MA on the weekly chart as well. Formidable opponent on the long term charts. Maybe we'll see a few more bounces off of it on the lower charts.

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I did manage to bag 58 pips this morning on the TC on the USDJPY. Nice bounce off of the 21MA
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  • #17,395
  • Oct 10, 2008 4:58am Oct 10, 2008 4:58am
Hi All

Is there any way I can generate Alert based on ADX crossover and or MACD? I am using MT4 on MIG to learn 4Hr Strategy.

Thanks

Akeko
  • #17,396
  • Oct 10, 2008 5:53am Oct 10, 2008 5:53am
Quoting hefhem911
I think EURUSD is on the verge of a TC if my guess is right. Its inability to sustain its upward move is obvious when it retraced back all its gains of two bars with two bars and MACD's rhythm too is in support of the TC. Looking at other pairs, EURJPY had a Head and Shoulders and also a Zero bounce off the MACD to further strengthen the TC. Likewise AUDUSD (no SHS though but Zero bounce for a TC). I think this will be be a big move.
As predicted, the EURUSD had a TC. Short it based on personal feelings @ 1.3621. I took GBPUSD due to the double bottom the MACD formed and its doing fine now, +306pips. Took USDCAD also based on bladerunner. Doing fine.

Phil, I still want to thank/commend you for all the efforts you put into this. I have been dodging the thread for a year now not until lately did I pay attention to the thread. And I must say, I have not regretted doing so!

Also to Palmer, I really want to thank you for putting together the pieces and helping them make sense in a very simple manner. Thank you.
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  • #17,397
  • Oct 10, 2008 6:21am Oct 10, 2008 6:21am
Quoting akeko
Hi All

Is there any way I can generate Alert based on ADX crossover and or MACD? I am using MT4 on MIG to learn 4Hr Strategy.

Thanks

Akeko

If you search the MetaTrader thread here on the FF I betcha something will show up....
  • #17,398
  • Oct 10, 2008 9:28am Oct 10, 2008 9:28am
Well, I did something incredibly stupid yesterday. I saw this amazing market rhythm, and a pattern which I - personally - found to be the most effective one with this method, bounce off zero.

A nice descending pair, beautiful resistance line achieved and bounced, no doubt in my mind.
Result: I put 25% of my capital at risk (micro-account) on this single trade.
And won.

The thing is, I think the concept of 'holy grail of forex systems' is stupid, because I believe the trader makes the system, not otherwise.
However, I think I did found my holy grail here. It's a system that suits my style (on time, risk, charting period, etc.), and grants me nearly 100% succesful trades.
If a trade is certain, like this one (well-defined res/sup., coherent wih other periods, no news on the way), I take it for zero chance of going wrong. Has worked so far.

Anyway, second time I'm just flattering you geniuses for presenting this to me, which has finally made me profitable on this god forsaken market - forex.

Thanks!
Renato
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Chasing Livermore...
  • #17,399
  • Oct 10, 2008 10:28am Oct 10, 2008 10:28am
Quoting osyrius
Well, I did something incredibly stupid yesterday. I saw this amazing market rhythm, and a pattern which I - personally - found to be the most effective one with this method, bounce off zero.

A nice descending pair, beautiful resistance line achieved and bounced, no doubt in my mind.
Result: I put 25% of my capital at risk (micro-account) on this single trade.
And won.

The thing is, I think the concept of 'holy grail of forex systems' is stupid, because I believe the trader makes the system, not otherwise.
However, I think I did found my holy grail here. It's a system that suits my style (on time, risk, charting period, etc.), and grants me nearly 100% succesful trades.
If a trade is certain, like this one (well-defined res/sup., coherent wih other periods, no news on the way), I take it for zero chance of going wrong. Has worked so far.

Anyway, second time I'm just flattering you geniuses for presenting this to me, which has finally made me profitable on this god forsaken market - forex.

Thanks!



Renato
The market had been trending very good since mid june
take GBPUSD H4
just buy when MACD is above 0 and hold it till it goes below 0
and sell when MACD is below 0 and hold it till it goes above 0
and see how many pips you would have using just MACD
MACD is just another moving average cross displayed in a histogram, try plotting the 12 and 26 EMA on GBPUSD since june and you will see we only had 3 or 4 crosses each generating huge number of pips, markets are pretty when they trend
  • #17,400
  • Oct 10, 2008 3:34pm Oct 10, 2008 3:34pm
Ugh, I am still struggling. I am over thinking things. I need to back test and accept the fact there will be loses, A LOT of loses.

I keep trying to find reasons not to trade, or scaring myself out of trades, so I don't take good set-ups.

Even the best set-ups lose, and I need to remind myself of that. I need to beat it into my damned head. I will lose, you guys lose, we all lose, just put the money down on good set ups and let it ride. If it hits the stop loss, f' it.

Okay, now I have a question. On the chart attached, there is a large outside bearish bar off of the 21 EMA, that I have put an arrow above. I passed on this trade, because the bar is around 250 pips (which is rather large compared to the other bars around it). But it had a great tail off of the 21 EMA.

Obviously it is too late for the 1 hour early entry.

Do you personally take this trade (and you would have made 50 pips quickly, then it went the opposite direction), or do you normally pass on such large bars?

Let me know, and thank you for all your help!
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