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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,201
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:04am Feb 24, 2007 9:04am
.....done.....

Phillip:

Are you only taking trades on the 4hr at the close of the candle times you specify in the manual? I realize that there are set-ups that do occur during other 'candle times' but since there are only six 4hr candles per day I'm thinking you are sticking to those times.

Thanks
  • #1,202
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:34am Feb 24, 2007 9:34am
Let me re-phrase that in another way...

The three times you specify in the manual are those times which have produced the most signals for an entry. These times have nothing to do with a success rate, just the most entries. That being the case, if there is a signal at the close of the 00:00 - 04:00 candle then take it, correct?
  • #1,203
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:54am Feb 24, 2007 9:54am
Quoting O'Zeeke
Phill, somehow the face do not match the voice or is it the otherway around? Thank you agains for how much you do !!!!
sorry guys,but am i missing out something? where exactly can i listen to this mp3 of phil? thanks:
  • #1,204
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:57am Feb 24, 2007 9:57am
Quoting Palmer
Let me re-phrase that in another way...

The three times you specify in the manual are those times which have produced the most signals for an entry. These times have nothing to do with a success rate, just the most entries. That being the case, if there is a signal at the close of the 00:00 - 04:00 candle then take it, correct?

The times I mentioned is based on my time I can trade due to working hours I dont have internet access. If there is a signal at the end of any 4hour candle you take it if it meet the criteria of R:R etc.
  • #1,205
  • Feb 24, 2007 10:08am Feb 24, 2007 10:08am
Quoting fxnewbie 71
sorry guys,but am i missing out something? where exactly can i listen to this mp3 of phil? thanks:
He has posted them throughout the thread. Just search for them and you'll find them. Or to make it even easier, just view all the attachments in the thread on their own and you'll see them - Phil usually zips them up.
  • #1,206
  • Feb 24, 2007 10:37am Feb 24, 2007 10:37am
Quoting ~Shard~
He has posted them throughout the thread. Just search for them and you'll find them. Or to make it even easier, just view all the attachments in the thread on their own and you'll see them - Phil usually zips them up.
thanks shard! nice weekend!
  • #1,207
  • Feb 24, 2007 11:06am Feb 24, 2007 11:06am
Quoting fxnewbie 71
thanks shard! nice weekend!
No problem - have a good one yourself.
  • #1,208
  • Feb 24, 2007 1:10pm Feb 24, 2007 1:10pm
I will try and do that from now on for you. I think my last few posts on Thurs. and Fri. listed my reasons for entering trades...have a look at those and let me know if that's what you would like to see?

Quoting Chandra
Can U please help us giving the technical reasons that prompted you to consider a short trade? Please tells what did you see when you were looking at the chart. It helps to see things in your way and learn.
Thank you.
-Chandra.
  • #1,209
  • Feb 24, 2007 2:40pm Feb 24, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Some more market Rythm
Phillip

You do talk about Fib on the MP3 file- just a question or two:

1. Do you use the 4h chart to draw your Fib lines and which High and Low do you use to determine the Fib levels?

2. DO you use the Fib indicator on your trading platform or do you have a special "tool"?

3. Don't you use pivot point in your market rythm (if you don't have any MA to work with)? I did find they sometimes act as ery good R & S levels. I did use Mark McRae pivot calculator and InterbankFX's daily H,L & C.

Willemmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,210
  • Feb 24, 2007 7:45pm Feb 24, 2007 7:45pm
Ok MACD traders (or shall i say Phillip's disciples?),

here are two trades that I plan to open this Sunday, but would like to read your comments/advice/critics.

US/CAD

MACD pattern: bearish trend continuation
Going with trend (below 89 MA)
In at 1.605
Stop @ 1.1625 (5 pips above TL)
Target profit: 1.1580
R:R slightly >1

GBP/USD

MACD pattern: Bullish trend continuation
Bullish trend (above 89 MA)
In@ 1.9599 (will wait until it breaks weekly TL and the high of previous cadle)
Stop @ 1.9555 (below daily TL)
TP@ 1.9670
R;R >1

EUR/USD
will stay out-MACD signal is too close to zero line (too weak?)
  • #1,211
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:00pm Feb 24, 2007 9:00pm
Phillip,
Would love to hear more on your theory of "tails".
And once again----fantastic work you have done.
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
  • #1,212
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:05pm Feb 24, 2007 9:05pm
alcastro

on USDCAD
I don't see bearish trend continuation according to macd.
If anything, it looks like a double bottom a bullish sign though it goes against the trend so I would step aside for a while.

on GBPUSD
I don't see anything according to macd. Surely you could enter based on some other criteria, like some kind of a breakout.

this is my humble opinion.
  • #1,213
  • Feb 24, 2007 9:19pm Feb 24, 2007 9:19pm
Quoting irusoh
alcastro

on USDCAD
I don't see bearish trend continuation according to macd.
If anything, it looks like a double bottom a bullish sign though it goes against the trend so I would step aside for a while.

on GBPUSD
I don't see anything according to macd. Surely you could enter based on some other criteria, like some kind of a breakout.

this is my humble opinion.
me too is seeing a bull is on the making....:
  • #1,214
  • Feb 24, 2007 11:31pm Feb 24, 2007 11:31pm
Quoting irusoh
alcastro

on USDCAD
I don't see bearish trend continuation according to macd.
If anything, it looks like a double bottom a bullish sign though it goes against the trend so I would step aside for a while.

on GBPUSD
I don't see anything according to macd. Surely you could enter based on some other criteria, like some kind of a breakout.

this is my humble opinion.
Irusoh,
If you are using IBFX data, you should note that the data is corrupted (missing 22nd and 23rd dada) and so, your opinion may not be valid (mine too as I also uses IBFX).
-Chandra.
  • #1,215
  • Feb 25, 2007 12:00am Feb 25, 2007 12:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Just thought I will show how I look like. So be aware.
Have a great weekend everyone![/quote]


That domesticated cat, I love to have it as my trading partner.
-Chandra
  • #1,216
  • Feb 25, 2007 12:26am Feb 25, 2007 12:26am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am using this 4 Hour strategy only for the last month as I have papertraded for 2 years trying everything and or system I could find. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I have backtested and forward tested it over more than 200 trades and it gives 300+ pips per month. I never had more than two consecutive losses. I never use a stoploss bigger than 50. There are enough chances to ignore the ones bigger than 50.

I am using this strategy only on the EurUsd and the GbpUsd. Have not tested it on other.
I hope that you will find some use for it and that it put you on the road to financial independence.
===================================================

nice work, very well researched (your discovering the MACD patterns) and pretty danged secure !

any system based on the MACD is almost quaranteed to work as long as one is not using too short a time frame in a "whippy" market --- the reason the MACD has retained its place as one of the "classic" indicators.

the only problem with the MACD, unless one gets down into really small values, is that its always LATE and requires a "trending" market -- couple that with working off of a 4 hour chart, and your ability to maximize profit is seriously curtailed, especially if one is entering on the NEXT candle ! With the "lateness" of the MACD, EXITS really take away from profit because they are now doubly late,(inherent lateness of a "following" indicator and the "next" candle wait, which may be a LONG way down compared with the last candles prices) which is why few good systems work with only one indicator.

If youre using MT4, you can super one of the other "classic" indicators on your MACD, use it as a signal line and increase the relative "speed" of the MACD tremendously ! an RSI for tops or bottoms and/or a stochastic for "strength" of move (williams R works also) and you could easily double your monthly pippage !

granted, what i have written only applies if you wish to make more than 300 pips per month (which i certainly do) but for a part time autotrader, that may well be enough ==

enjoy and trade well

mp
  • #1,217
  • Feb 25, 2007 4:29am Feb 25, 2007 4:29am
Quoting Golfer
Phillip

You do talk about Fib on the MP3 file- just a question or two:

1. Do you use the 4h chart to draw your Fib lines and which High and Low do you use to determine the Fib levels?

2. DO you use the Fib indicator on your trading platform or do you have a special "tool"?

3. Don't you use pivot point in your market rythm (if you don't have any MA to work with)? I did find they sometimes act as ery good R & S levels. I did use Mark McRae pivot calculator and InterbankFX's daily H,L & C.

Willemmmmmmmmmmmmmm

1. I normally uses the 4hour and the closest high/low to the price action to draw the Fib.
2. I uses the one with MT4
3. I sometimes use Pivots but that is very often. I prefer Fib if there is no MA's to set target.
  • #1,218
  • Edited 5:45am Feb 25, 2007 5:22am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting mparker
===================================================

nice work, very well researched (your discovering the MACD patterns) and pretty danged secure !

any system based on the MACD is almost quaranteed to work as long as one is not using too short a time frame in a "whippy" market --- the reason the MACD has retained its place as one of the "classic" indicators.

the only problem with the MACD, unless one gets down into really small values, is that its always LATE and requires a "trending" market -- couple that with working off of a 4 hour chart, and your ability to maximize profit is seriously curtailed, especially if one is entering on the NEXT candle ! With the "lateness" of the MACD, EXITS really take away from profit because they are now doubly late,(inherent lateness of a "following" indicator and the "next" candle wait, which may be a LONG way down compared with the last candles prices) which is why few good systems work with only one indicator.

If youre using MT4, you can super one of the other "classic" indicators on your MACD, use it as a signal line and increase the relative "speed" of the MACD tremendously ! an RSI for tops or bottoms and/or a stochastic for "strength" of move (williams R works also) and you could easily double your monthly pippage !

granted, what i have written only applies if you wish to make more than 300 pips per month (which i certainly do) but for a part time autotrader, that may well be enough ==

enjoy and trade well

mp

1. You are absolutely right if a system uses just one indicator you can have a lot of wrong signals if you follow the rule and does not have filters.
2. That the MACD is lagging is also true. I prefer to catch the middle part of the move as that is more constant and secure.
3. The filters in the 4 Hour System in this thread is the ability to know and read the emotion of the people reflected in the price action such as morning stars, spinners. tweezer tops and bottoms, three bar head and shoulders etc etc etc.. If the development to the MACD signal is preceded by those the odds of success are great.
4. Another filter is the different Moving Averages. Moving averages is the average actions of people regarding their interpretation of information they have and what they are willing to set forth in the price.
a. The 8EMA is the current and latest info barometer as to info just released. Test it with the start of a strong uptrend due to very good news and you will see that the price tend to stay above that for some time till other fresher weaker news gets known and or the fair value of the news is reached. That value people are prepared to pay direct in relation to their interpretation of the news.
b. The 21EMA is the average of the original good news mixed with some other news before and after the original news as described in the 8EMA. As long as this average supports the direction flow the price will tend to come back to this average before going upwards again till the point is reached of fair value or counter news takes it below the 21EMA.
c. The 89SMA is the mood barometer in terms of the mood trend direction. When the price is above the 89SMA the mood is bullish and visa versa. When the price zig zag above and below the 89SMA the mood is mixed and we have a price range until there is news that will give direction to the price.
d. The 200SMA I believe is the economy barometer in general and especially on the daily graph. In the 4hour graph it tends to find support or resistance in harmony with the daily 200SMA
e. The 365EMA is a longterm emotional barometer giving more weight to the recent news events and tend to act as support/resistance when their is no other MA's closeby. Only my view.

As you can see that all the other indicators are build into the price action. The expression on the face of the market itself tells me the real emotion and whether it is sadness or hapiness and when the market shows those emotions I know what to do.

The emotion of the market prior to the signal tells me when it is right to pull the trigger when the MACD gives the trigger. Just overlay a CCI(50) on the MACD and you will see that it support the MACD in the timing.

If you however changes to shorter time frames(emotions) you are going to check your newborn baby every 5 minutes to see whether their is something in his nappy while if you wait for it to trigger your nose(longer timeframe) you will be right 9 out of 10 times I can promise you that. With the 5 minute time method you are also going to be right when their is something in the nappy but very exhausted I think and might be caught sleeping when it hits the fan. You might miss the big one.

I have much more time to relax and 300+ per month is more than enough to even sow so that I can reap. You have to give back to be able to receive otherwise I never would have published this system.

The equil twins of desaster in trading is Fear and Greed.

If your fear is that you are not going to make enough you are going to lose.
  • #1,219
  • Feb 25, 2007 6:53am Feb 25, 2007 6:53am
[quote=Phillip Nel;227518]1. You are absolutely right if a system uses just one indicator you can have a lot of wrong signals if you follow the rule and does not have filters.
2. That the MACD is lagging is also true. I prefer to catch the middle part of the move as that is more constant and secure.
3. The filters in the 4 Hour System in this thread is the ability to know and read the emotion of the people reflected in the price action such as morning stars, spinners. tweezer tops and bottoms, three bar head and shoulders etc etc etc.. If the development to the MACD signal is preceded by those the odds of success are great.
4. Another filter is the different Moving Averages. . . . . . . .
a. The 8EMA is the current and latest info barometer as to info just released. pay direct in relation to their interpretation of the news.
b. The 21EMA is the average of the original good news mixed with some other news before and after the original news as described in the 8EMA. As long as this average supports the direction flow the price will tend to come back to this average before going upwards again till the point is reached of fair value or counter news takes it below the 21EMA.
c. The 89SMA is the mood barometer in terms of the mood trend direction. When the price is above the 89SMA the mood is bullish and visa versa. When the price zig zag above and below the 89SMA the mood is mixed and we have a price range until there is news that will give direction to the price.
d. The 200SMA I believe is the economy barometer in general and especially on the daily graph. In the 4hour graph it tends to find support or resistance in harmony with the daily 200SMA
e. The 365EMA is a longterm emotional barometer giving more weight to the recent news events and tend to act as support/resistance when their is no other MA's closeby. Only my view.

[quote]
======================================================

LOL -- your description of the markets mood sounds extremely "Italian", as i find that country's love and descriptive powers of some of the most mundane situations in the world to be expressed so "artfully" -- they (as a culture) fit my karma very closely.

Understand that I am one of those who checks the nappy constantly, often twice in a minute and throughout all of the markets (I nap a lot) so looking at the number of pips you bring forth tends to appear small to me (this is what i do to pay for two ex-wives, two children thru private high schools, their cars, their trips to europe and china and now college and NOT to forget the McIntyre sisters (one each, blonde, redhead and sultry brunette -- I have problems making up my mind about somethings obviously !) who help make life as enjoyable as can be --- no wonder i havent turned on the TV in the past year !

ive seen you describe the EUR/JPY as being near the top of its range and I must agree that its nearing the top of its Linear Regression channel and if it follows past history, is a strong candidate for a short but i feel very strongly that this will be more like its performance 2/09 - 2/14 when it essentially "double topped" causing a selloff and profit taking and resulting in the present run up ! my present indicators mirror the beginning of that week perfectly, so i will imagine that is precisely what it will do again, giving that BIG drop towards the end of next week, since current history tends to repeat itself (after all, its only people who trade these things, and if its machines, theyve been programmed by people !)

Ive seen you draw channels on some of your jpegs, and cant let a moment go by without speaking of the LRC (Linear Regression Channel) which I have been teaching for the past 6 years --- NOTHING else will show, so visually, what a trend is, what the trend WITHIN the trend is and what the trend within the trend within the trend is ! And joy of joys, its already a part of the "objects" portion of the MT4 software and needs NO introduction from outside sources !

to explain -- presently the 10 year TOP resistance for your pair is 160.54 (that will change every day, as the trend lines move UP, causing the top price to move up correspondingly) reinforced by the presence of TWO major LRC's, so UP is the definite major direction this pair is moving (and has been for 10 years) within that major UP trend, the currency cycles up and down in its never ending "run up/profit take" routine (it does it very smoothly considering and i see why you like the pair for longer term trading -- it might even satisfy my intraday trading style because there are some days with a very decent pip range contained within !) In the equities market, we would call this a "channeling" or "rolling" stock, as it simply tends to repeat its up/down trends in a very predictable manner !

your use of the current favorite EMA's is correct, if for no other reason than EVERYONE else is looking at them also, so the moving averages become a self-fullfilling prophecy --- if this pair halts a retrace at abc moving average 10 times in a row, one can assume (but watch nevertheless) that it will do it an eleventh time also !

i wont go on analyzing this pair, but i do thank you for bringing it to my attention --- its a very reliable channeler, and while i may check the nappy more often than you, this trader likes to get some sleep also !

while i think you leave "a lot on the table" as far as pippage, theyre YOUR pips to do with as you wish and NO ONE can fault your depth of research and clear manner of description --- you remind me of me at an earlier time, writing 10 page systems for all to use (still work, btw and i use them constantly) and i wish you clear sailing and many pips on your horizon.

one question --- HOW do i insert a jpeg into the body of my text as you have -- words are wonderful, but coming out of the motion picture business, I am a VISUAL person and would rather one picture save me a thousand words !

enjoy and trade well

mp
  • #1,220
  • Feb 25, 2007 7:34am Feb 25, 2007 7:34am
Phil,

I hope I can catch on, because I really want to learn.

Jim
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