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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,181
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:23pm Feb 23, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Chandra,

The Forex market is a decentralized without 1 single institution controlling prices. Banks do compete for rates within the community resulting in the most competitive market.

Banks do communicate with one another regarding investor positions. Yes, they know where the stops are. London and Tokyo are notorious stop runners, and it is common practice for dealers to "clear the books." It is not a conspiracy against us, only a business practice. Dealers can move markets because they have huge amounts of money behind them. Yet, they must be prudent too...to move the market with your capital means you are risking lots of capital and a central bank may be on the other side....or a huge hedge fund.

You are right, we need to be smarter. We need to place stops outside of areas that are common and obvious. Sometimes we get hit...sometimes we don't. It is frustrating. Forex is the most mentally demanding thing you can do with your time. There is so much to learn. The most important thing to learn is to identify support and resistance. This is the basics to any system because it is how we identify risk and reward points. Don't get frustrated...just focus on one thing at a time and practice practice practice!! Take time and backtest.

You are doing a great job! Keep a positive attitude and keep perfecting your trading skills on step at a time!
Hi Pips4uandme AND PHILLIP,
Regarding your response to my concern about Banks and istitutions, don't you think that the Futures and Commodities market is much more fair compared to Forex market because there are many many individuals and institutions in that mkt., competing and nobody having the previlage of dectating a price, as it is in Forex market?

If you agree with this point, my next question is to you as well to Phillip. How good is this MACD strategy for Futures and Commodities markets? Those markets are also pretty active, volatile and trending too!.
Phillip, you were in stocks, futures and commodities and so you cannot escape this question by saying "I don't know".
-Chandra
  • #1,182
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:28pm Feb 23, 2007 5:28pm
Quoting Chandra
Hi Pips4uandme AND PHILLIP,
Regarding your response to my concern about Banks and istitutions, don't you think that the Futures and Commodities market is much more fair compared to Forex market because there are many many individuals and institutions in that mkt., competing and nobody having the previlage of dectating a price, as it is in Forex market?

If you agree with this point, my next question is to you as well to Phillip. How good is this MACD strategy for Futures and Commodities markets? Those markets are also pretty active, volatile and trending too!.
Phillip, you were in stocks, futures and commodities and so you cannot escape this question by saying "I don't know".
-Chandra
Get locked limit up or locked limit down and see how fair you think that game is. Be very informed of how futures and commodities work before entering. Good Luck! If we keep looking for a "fair" we will never get involved. It only becomes "fair" when we understand how the market is played (and yes, it is a game to many).
  • #1,183
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:35pm Feb 23, 2007 5:35pm
Hey pips.. you just mentioned something I was thinking about:

So, I had my first "real" success this week. So what happened? I went back to my shy trading and didn't really trade anything the last 2 days while all of you brought home major pips. I got "gun shy" to protect my pips. I simply just cannot do this or I will never be successful again. It's like prevent defense in football (american football). You try and protect, but most of the time it actually hurts you..... Just another barrier on the emotional trading playing field. They are all over the place.

Quoting pips4uandme
So handsome, brave and strong

If I were "THEM", I'd be very very afraid....Here comes the King of the Jungle..Plains...& Savannah!!!

& this "Shy driver" is learning to be fearless too...so far though, I only look like my dog, who would be eaten by a cat...

Yikes!!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,184
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:36pm Feb 23, 2007 5:36pm
One idea would be to stick your hand in, grab a few and run. Increase your lots in a very smart fashion. Then when you get the big bucks, stoplosses would not be a problem. My boy has Aspergers Syndrom and part of that is being Autistic. He knows ways to get around certain problems that some people would think are impossible and to good to be true. He has mapped out a money manegement strategy that combined with Phils system could turn a few into millionares without turning a single head up there. Nothing he does surprises me anymore.

" Knowledge is Good" Eberhard Faber

Jim
  • #1,185
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:47pm Feb 23, 2007 5:47pm
Hi again,

All the financial markets are "free" and "fair." The participants are all involved to make money and the people involved have been studying the rules for a long time and know how to exploit market weakness and human emotion. Futures and Options have become extremely popular again, as they are cyclical, like all investment opportunities. The only way for a small investor to have a chance is to understand the game (as Phillip is showing us with Forex) and to be properly capatalized. Once you understand how the market works, and you are comfortable with it, you can get involved. If you feel like it is "unfair," "biased," "slanted," or controlled by institutions and you don't have an edge to succeed, then don't get involved. Education and experience is our edge. Practice too. Adaptability to market environments is also key.

Forex allows a market participant to get involved with very little upfront capital b/c margin requirements are low. The market is also very volatile and risk is high, as is reward! Large players know that newbies play weak hands in order to score big & absolutely take advantage of that knowledge (as should we).

This is absolutely the last opinion I will post, as it doesn't pertain directly to the 4 hour system. You can PM me if you want to continue the debate. (ultimately, I think any market you are comfortable with and can understand is a great market).
  • #1,186
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:52pm Feb 23, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting DireXiv
Hey pips.. you just mentioned something I was thinking about:

So, I had my first "real" success this week. So what happened? I went back to my shy trading and didn't really trade anything the last 2 days while all of you brought home major pips. I got "gun shy" to protect my pips. I simply just cannot do this or I will never be successful again. It's like prevent defense in football (american football). You try and protect, but most of the time it actually hurts you..... Just another barrier on the emotional trading playing field. They are all over the place.
Great point! We need to be defensive with our pips, but not overly so! Fear has stopped many from achieving success!!! Let's follow Phillip's tagline....and BE FEARLESS (but I'm scared, hehe)
  • #1,187
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:59pm Feb 23, 2007 5:59pm
DireXiv,

The American football thing is interesting, (I'm a girl, so I didn't get to play in school); my boyfriend always tells me the only time you get hurt in football is when you are afraid to take a hit. Guess the same applies to us. If we are afraid, we can't pull the trigger. If we are scared to sacrafice a few pips we will make bad business deciscions and ultimately get hurt or get out of the game completely!

Let's make next week, the week of the warrior....with a battle plan of course
  • #1,188
  • Feb 23, 2007 6:03pm Feb 23, 2007 6:03pm
Quoting hard1head1
One idea would be to stick your hand in, grab a few and run. Increase your lots in a very smart fashion. Then when you get the big bucks, stoplosses would not be a problem. My boy has Aspergers Syndrom and part of that is being Autistic. He knows ways to get around certain problems that some people would think are impossible and to good to be true. He has mapped out a money manegement strategy that combined with Phils system could turn a few into millionares without turning a single head up there. Nothing he does surprises me anymore.

" Knowledge is Good" Eberhard Faber

Jim
You and your son are inspirations to us all! My best friend is a speech therapist who specializes in teaching children with Aspergers and various forms of autism social skills....Think it is interesting that we need to teach these children our norms and don't think about learning from them (even though I hear children with Aspergers are geniuses!).
  • #1,189
  • Feb 23, 2007 6:18pm Feb 23, 2007 6:18pm
Pips,

Yes, I learn from him every day. The reason I got into trading was to help pay his doctor and specialist bills since he is not covered under any insurance and I recently lost my job. He has some interesting ways that I have yet to see fail. He has a 182 IQ well above the Genious level. His strong points are Math and Science. He has graduated High school at 15 and he can work wonders with numbers. He has mail from the likes of M.I.T and Harvard Medical School. But he thinks he can help us here. I will keep you all posted.

Thanks for reading, Jim
  • #1,190
  • Feb 23, 2007 7:24pm Feb 23, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Just looking at the Daily chart for the EUR, if this candle closes today similiar to this. Should we start thinking to short? Perhaps it's run out of steam for now?
Can U please help us giving the technical reasons that prompted you to consider a short trade? Please tells what did you see when you were looking at the chart. It helps to see things in your way and learn.
Thank you.
-Chandra.
  • #1,191
  • Feb 23, 2007 7:29pm Feb 23, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting ~Shard~
Does anyone else think that the AUDUSD is set for a fall?

Any thoughts on the cable?
Can you please tell us what signal is prompting you to go short? Sure it helps others to look at the chart in your way and learn.
Thanks.
-Chandra.
  • #1,192
  • Feb 23, 2007 7:46pm Feb 23, 2007 7:46pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Round top may only be consolidation pattern....before the next run.

"Round top may only be consolidation pattern....before the next run"

Pips4uandme,

Great!

Your view of round tops/bottoms ( could be consolidation patterns in strong trend) is a great observation. Can this view of rounds be extended to other patterns too? I feel views like this has given Phillip a stong power of discretion. And, we, who do not have this kind of observation in our vision keep wondering 'Why Phillip did not take this trade, that trade,bla, bla...bla).

Great thing and thank you, pippy! (Easy to type pippy than pip4uandme)
-Chandra.
  • #1,193
  • Feb 23, 2007 8:28pm Feb 23, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting Chandra


Great thing and thank you, pippy! (Easy to type pippy than pip4uandme)
-Chandra.
I Love the aka "Pippy"!!!!!!!!! Have a good weekend, Chandra. Talk to you Sunday or Monday

Best,
pippy
  • #1,194
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:43pm Feb 23, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi rp0029!!

Great job on all the testing and retesting!! I love your style

I can tell right off where the losses occured from your posted chart. Did you notice the Moving Averages? The major trendline is also a definate trend! MACD signals are dangerous in trending environments. Try retesting with the idea of waiting for buying opportunities when you see that type of pattern and avoid contra-trend trades.

I can tell from all the work you've put in this far, you will be very sucessful (and rich) from your trades!! Don't forget us little folk.
Hi Pippy and rp0029,
Pippy is right! He is shouting on the top of his voice "GIVE DUE RESPECT TO MAJOR TREND ......... "
If the MACD signal is in the direction of the major trend, go for it, taking into consideration of the usual barriers; if the MACD signal is counter to the major trend (major tend is decided by 89EMA - thus said Phillip) then, treat that MACD signal as a conter-trend trade and take a quick and dirty small trade in its direction, or, if this counter-trend MACD signal is not strong enough, consider it as a consolidation time of the major trend and let it pass.

I learned about the counte-trend cocept from Phillip a few days back and I learned about consolidation concept from Benf and pip4uandme recently! (due credit to deserving gurus).
-Chandra.
  • #1,195
  • Feb 24, 2007 4:41am Feb 24, 2007 4:41am
Quoting hard1head1
Hey Phil,

What did you mean by that 21 ema for an uptrend. Could you give me the skinny on this. I like the way this pair trends and I want to be sure.

Jim

That pair is in a strong uptrend. If you go short as the rythm has shown just be aware of the 21EMA as a support for a trend continuation. The EurJpy is in a channel since the beginning of the year and at its upper limit and if the MACD is going to give a signal going down to zero and then a continuation pattern upwards a position for a breakout must be the purpose.
At the moment the rythm shows a down move but just be aware of the other option for a breakout to the top so when it starts to happen to be able to reverse the situation the moment you are sure of the breakout and allways if R:R is OK. See the post with Breakout Mp3 yesterday
  • #1,196
  • Feb 24, 2007 4:45am Feb 24, 2007 4:45am
Quoting pips4uandme
Great point! We need to be defensive with our pips, but not overly so! Fear has stopped many from achieving success!!! Let's follow Phillip's tagline....and BE FEARLESS (but I'm scared, hehe)

I allways set some profit aside (mentally and emotionally)to risk in the next trade. Their money not mine.
  • #1,197
  • Feb 24, 2007 5:19am Feb 24, 2007 5:19am
Some more market Rythm
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Market Rythm AudUsd.zip   702 KB | 5,484 downloads
  • #1,198
  • Feb 24, 2007 5:46am Feb 24, 2007 5:46am
Look at this one of the EurUsd.
I dont hope I am making it more difficult for you people as that is not what the intention is. I want you to experience the rythm of the market so that you can flow with it expecting where it will go.


Remember that the MACD is the trigger while the rythm is the direction and the different boundaries/barriers (price levels, MA's, etc) are the distance in pips you want to shoot.

The rythm is upwards if the price is above the 89SMA and even more if it is above the 21EMA and visa versa.
Attached Image
  • #1,199
  • Feb 24, 2007 6:24am Feb 24, 2007 6:24am
I have done it a little finer so you can see the rythm better with the green lines I inserted as well as the breakout direction channel.
See how the price moves around these two coloured channels in more or less equil distances.
Attached Image
  • #1,200
  • Feb 24, 2007 7:28am Feb 24, 2007 7:28am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Just thought I will show how I look like. So be aware.
Phill, somehow the face do not match the voice or is it the otherway around? Thank you agains for how much you do !!!!
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