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100% Win Math Grid Ea

  • #101
  • Oct 8, 2008 2:32am Oct 8, 2008 2:32am
Hi

I'm hopping on the end of the discussion here, but....

what would be really interesting is to find every type of grid that would have been profitable with an automated backtest.... then set up the new grid to bet against the patterns that don't show up.

David, if I recall, you've said "statistics are king." I realize that there is a first time for everything, and a new pattern could show up in the grid that gets wiped out.

But with enough backdata, it might be worth rolling the dice on.
  • #102
  • Oct 8, 2008 3:25am Oct 8, 2008 3:25am
Why are you hopping on the end of the discussion here?
forexflash
  • #103
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:00am Oct 8, 2008 4:00am
Quoting FOREXflash
Why are you hopping on the end of the discussion here?
Sorry I'm not tdion but I think we are just starting our hopping rite ,
until the feel of the semi-hidden potential disappears.

Maybe tdion will kindly help us to assess or/and improve the strategy with his own knowledge.
  • #104
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:10am Oct 8, 2008 4:10am
Pisara tell me, do you know how to code?
forexflash
  • #105
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:38am Oct 8, 2008 4:38am
Hi All,
This is surely best grid system ever found and I like it very much.
How if we place a time sets which provide this ea to start and stop at certain period, which means, we guide this EA not to entry after deep volatility, and wait until the sideways gone.
But who will know when it could be sideways or trending?
I've tested manually one by one, with the function of CONTINUE = true.
And start this EA after the price sideways in certain time, and I started the EA again, the result is not so bad, but I stop it because it is a time consuming one. Sorry I got tired and stop my experiment.
By the way, I'm using the attached indicator I've got from Hollow-Point to entry the market. The breakout box will follow the time and show us the hi-lo price and tunnel, which is depend on our settings. You all may try it.
Thanks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HollowPointPhantom.ex4   22 KB | 3,923 downloads
Joko Kendil Trading For Live
  • #106
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:52am Oct 8, 2008 4:52am
I've tried this EA in the Asian Indice as HangSeng which has high trend character, and you can see the difference.
Within only 19 days the balance multiplied by 820%, it's unbelievable!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mGrid-Original.gif Size: 7 KB
Jodie Forex at its Best
  • #107
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:01am Oct 8, 2008 5:01am
Thanks, but ex4 file is not of use to me!
Send a mq4 file, so i can recode the EA!
forexflash
  • #108
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:06am Oct 8, 2008 5:06am
It is an indicator not an EA. It looks like a commercial file since it will not work on a live account without being programed with the account number. It also appears to have an expiration date.
  • #109
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:07am Oct 8, 2008 5:07am
I mean to recode the EA with that indicator, you didnt understend it well!
Respect
forexflash
  • #110
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:08am Oct 8, 2008 5:08am
Understood now.
  • #111
  • Oct 8, 2008 5:25am Oct 8, 2008 5:25am
Quoting jokokendil
Hi All,
This is surely best grid system ever found and I like it very much.
How if we place a time sets which provide this ea to start and stop at certain period, which means, we guide this EA not to entry after deep volatility, and wait until the sideways gone.
But who will know when it could be sideways or trending?
I've tested manually one by one, with the function of CONTINUE = true.
And start this EA after the price sideways in certain time, and I started the EA again, the result is not so bad, but I stop it because it is a time consuming one. Sorry I got tired and stop my experiment.
By the way, I'm using the attached indicator I've got from Hollow-Point to entry the market. The breakout box will follow the time and show us the hi-lo price and tunnel, which is depend on our settings. You all may try it.
Thanks.
That indi is nothing more than color High-Low box with pre-set time interval with added world clock extra. Tunnel value seems to be just the mean of the box high-low. FF, you don't need the source for the toy. Peace.
  • #112
  • Oct 8, 2008 6:40am Oct 8, 2008 6:40am
Hi, attached is the EA with a StdDev indicator built in. I've had some decent results with low down draw using a STD of .002 on the 15 min chart. If the STD is below a set level the EA will not enter any new trades until volatility is back up. It won't close any pending or open ones either unless TP SL is hit. I've been too busy to really play with the settings but if anyone would like to post some results that would be great.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 mGRID EA with StdDev.mq4   10 KB | 4,998 downloads
  • #113
  • Oct 8, 2008 12:36pm Oct 8, 2008 12:36pm
Thanks, I didnt manage to test it yet......
forexflash
  • #114
  • Edited 12:50pm Oct 8, 2008 12:49pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting FOREXflash
Learning the ropes, I read your PM......ok, il code it for you, dont spend money on this "simple" tasks, there is many programmers here who would code this for you! I never try to code that, but I think that it is very simple to add such variable. Give me a few days, when I got some time Ill code it for you. No problem man. Just be patient.
Respect
Thanks in advance for taking on this request. I think it will be very useful for those wanting to use the EA at specified price levels in conjunction with Fibs, pivots, or other S/R levels. As I explained to you, I'm using it at the "00" psychological numbers very effectively. I have run 5 successful cycles between the 100's since Sunday evening (US). It will be nice to be able to set a price to engage the EA and not have my eyes glued to the screen looking to get in as close as possible like I have been with the above strategy

I'll await your post when you find the time,
Jim
  • #115
  • Oct 8, 2008 3:22pm Oct 8, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting tdion
Hi

I'm hopping on the end of the discussion here, but....

what would be really interesting is to find every type of grid that would have been profitable with an automated backtest.... then set up the new grid to bet against the patterns that don't show up.

David, if I recall, you've said "statistics are king." I realize that there is a first time for everything, and a new pattern could show up in the grid that gets wiped out.

But with enough backdata, it might be worth rolling the dice on.
TD,

Re "statistics are king":

-- IMHO, where MM is concerned, gaming (expectancy) theory is king.
-- Where price movement/patterns are concerned, they can't be predicted with any real accuracy. The best we can do is backtest, and assign the appropriate level of statistical confidence to the results. For better or worse, statistics are the only guide that we have.

If we assume that "patterns" that occurred in the past capture some recurring aspect of crowd behavior, then it's probably reasonable to assume that these same patterns are more likely, than others, to occur in the future. But that doesn't rule out the possibility that any pattern (including one that would cause the grid MM to blow-up) might occur, at any time.

If, conversely, we assume that price movement is completely random (itself a flawed assumption, IMHO), and that therefore (in order for every pattern to occur equally often over a very long period of time), patterns that occurred less frequently in the past are more likely to occur in the future, then I would say that we're suffering from a delusion known as Gambler's Fallacy (or, if you prefer, see Wikipedia's explanation).

Sorry, this post is somewhat off-topic.

David
  • #116
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:43am Oct 9, 2008 4:43am
As David is telling us now and many times before, we can't make a profitable system without some edge in expectancy.

Regarding that system, it depends on what are the answers to the questions like these:

A. if we manage to check our margin required to open the next opposite orders bunch and finish the block under blow-up before that, would it radically change the overall expectancy?

B. would we have an sufficient edge by making timed entries, and possibly, exits too (based on our assumptions about trading sessions, hourly volatility distribution or even simple StdDev based breakout of the established range)?

C. the same question as B but also changing the lot size (i.e. variable risk); put small lots on stagnation, bigger risks due the major activity
  • #117
  • Oct 9, 2008 7:14am Oct 9, 2008 7:14am
Without programing the upadated versions we will never know.
The majority of the ideas are good, but without testing the "ideas",
we simply dont know the possible outcomes.
I think the major issue with original version is logics for executing orders!
We need to make a EA from the scratch if possible!
forexflash
  • #118
  • Edited 7:49am Oct 9, 2008 7:47am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting FOREXflash
Without programing the upadated versions we will never know.
The majority of the ideas are good, but without testing the "ideas",
we simply dont know the possible outcomes.
I think the major issue with original version is logics for executing orders!
We need to make a EA from the scratch if possible!
No problem, scratching is the best way to start thinking fresh

I guess by raising those questions I just wanted more re-assurance in form of some kind of positive/negative feedback from more knowledgeable folks like David. As I sense there are fundamental math limitations with such approach and nobody wants to throw its time if the idea(s) doomed to fail simply because of that. Although I would agree that there is always the straight through approach "unless proved otherwise"...
  • #119
  • Oct 9, 2008 8:45am Oct 9, 2008 8:45am
The math can not solve the problem of blowout, I asure you!
We can only make a EA that will last longer before a blow off.
Tell me how many methods and indicators have you used and tested?
I spended thousands hours testing......and the thing is that there is no
method or indicator that wont fail you sonner or later.....simply market changes, and indicators become absolete...sometimes they work...and sometimes not.....I will stick with this ea becouse it will fail less then any other method, and makes much more cash then any of them!
Like I said, my MM with this is, make some money, withdraw it, let it run...
withdraw maney again.....etc......
Im a logic trader and I stick with this.
forexflash
  • #120
  • Oct 9, 2008 9:14am Oct 9, 2008 9:14am
Quoting FOREXflash
The math can not solve the problem of blowout, I asure you!
We can only make a EA that will last longer before a blow off.
Tell me how many methods and indicators have you used and tested?
I spended thousands hours testing......and the thing is that there is no
method or indicator that wont fail you sonner or later.....simply market changes, and indicators become absolete...sometimes they work...and sometimes not.....I will stick with this ea becouse it will fail less then any other method, and makes much more cash then any of them!
Like I said, my MM with this is, make some money, withdraw it, let it run...
withdraw maney again.....etc......
Im a logic trader and I stick with this.
What I mean is that I wouldn't feel myself comfortable trading EA that shows several or even a single blow-up each year, according to the backtests. The math is important factor when we dealing with uncertainty.
Indis are all different for different purposes, I wouldn't generalise without specifics. The fault in logic behind seeing frequent withdrawings as a safeguard is that we never know when next blow-up coming.

I think the major problem with this grid is the hedging that consumes available margin very promptly. There are other similar systems based on MM and volatility like this
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