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  • #6,261
  • Oct 8, 2008 11:34am Oct 8, 2008 11:34am
Quoting sm31
Hi Bo. I've been following this thread with great interest for months, but I have never posted on it. Thank you for all the incredible input (and patience).

With regards to the above comment, do you still lean more toward a particular standard for entries (like candle openings) or do you prefer some other parameter?



To me, the bars from 10:00 - 12:00 GMT on the GBP/USD 1 HR chart were particularly bad. Was there anything prior to the beginning of the european session that helped you reach this conclusion? The situation is obvious now, but I'm not sure I would have been able to see it early enough to avoid losses. Dumb luck kept me out of the market this morning...



Thanks again!!
Me personally I like to just use the price action at the levels themselves, after a test of the Intraday levels I will normally wait until I see it begin to either trade higher or lower that the previous periods. The candle opening use to be a safe entry but changing markets change your strategy.
Price could not advance in either direction without retracing on itself. Just the impression I get from looking at the early candles is that buying and selling pressure were equal at the time.
Looking at the candles on GBP its clear price was trying to rally but there are extreme wicks on the tops of the canldes in the early going...something doesnt match there and its becoming obvious now with GBP but its too late and wasnt worth it to find out earlier.
The Euro wasnt as choppy but was and is still showing its support is holding...GBP support has failed. Its better to wait these type conditions out..alot of fundamental problems all over the globe are also playing havoc and panic in the markets everywhere.
  • #6,262
  • Oct 8, 2008 7:25pm Oct 8, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting Bobokus
Me personally I like to just use the price action at the levels themselves, after a test of the Intraday levels I will normally wait until I see it begin to either trade higher or lower that the previous periods. The candle opening use to be a safe entry but changing markets change your strategy.
Price could not advance in either direction without retracing on itself. Just the impression I get from looking at the early candles is that buying and selling pressure were equal at the time.
Looking at the candles on GBP its clear price was trying to rally but there are extreme wicks on the tops of the canldes in the early going...something doesnt match there and its becoming obvious now with GBP but its too late and wasnt worth it to find out earlier.
The Euro wasnt as choppy but was and is still showing its support is holding...GBP support has failed. Its better to wait these type conditions out..alot of fundamental problems all over the globe are also playing havoc and panic in the markets everywhere.
in gbp /USA SHOULD I PULL DOWN THE DOWN TREND .
  • #6,263
  • Oct 8, 2008 10:48pm Oct 8, 2008 10:48pm
Quoting Bobokus
If you were in a long position your initial stop would need to be placed below the previous waveform low point. After you let the trade breathe a little and can see if its going to go against you or it looks to comtinue in the direction your trading then you can manage your stop loss. If it is going against you the first sign is, it begins to trade lower than it did in the previous period (breaking the previous candle low) once you see that its time to move on it and start protecting your account by moving your stop up to the previous period low or candle low less a few pips to reduce your risk. If you have to take the loss take the loss dont let it drag out thinking it will come back at some point...get out of it, there will be plenty of opportunities to make it back. Learning to reduce your risk or exposure is probobly the most important thing to learn in trading. Never let a bad trade run, when you see your in the wrong direction get out of it or set your stop to remove you from it.
Most likely when you let a bad trade run your not acting within the rules you set for yourself when you plan out your trades. Keep strict discipline to the rules you set for yourself. Ill bet you had a point picked as a stoploss and didnt use it, am I right ?
Stop and reverse is risky sometimes since in a choppy market it can compound losses, dont use a stop and reverse tactic if you are seeing signs of indecision in the market. Stop and reverse would be used at the point you set for your stoploss though and when you do dont try and make a huge profit from it you can only take what the market is offering look more just to recover your loss or just a portion of it and no more, once your over the loss step back and start over again.
If youve got something else taking your focus off trading...dont trade wait until youve got a clear mind or you will make mistakes by making rash decisions.
And dont dwell on losses or let them depress your mentality they are inevitable theres nothing we can do about it thats just part of it. I have losses just like everyone else in this business but I know from experience now that if I continue without changing what I do, the losses dont matter all that matters is if you have profit once its all said and done at the end of the week, month, year.
hey bo can u make a movie on youtube on stops?

thanks
  • #6,264
  • Oct 9, 2008 1:45am Oct 9, 2008 1:45am
Happy aniversary Bo!
  • #6,265
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:45am Oct 9, 2008 6:45am
Quoting boyeros
in gbp /USA SHOULD I PULL DOWN THE DOWN TREND .
Yes, If it makes new lows pull the low of it to the the new lows.
  • #6,266
  • Oct 9, 2008 2:31pm Oct 9, 2008 2:31pm
hello bobokus,i am looking at gbpusd since yesterday and its really moving.i placed a trade which i lost today though its a demo account and i am still learning, i think i just need more discipline.i think the range on the gbpusd is coming to an end.what do you think?were you able to make some pips today? happy pips taking.
  • #6,267
  • Oct 9, 2008 2:51pm Oct 9, 2008 2:51pm
Bo, I am so angry with myself, I entered long on a clear break of intraday long and it turned on me. Care to comment?
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  • #6,268
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:09pm Oct 9, 2008 4:09pm
I took a pretty modest short on EU banked 52 pips. I know price is moving down further but based on the time of the day I didn't want to risk it. Considering it bounced of a larger 4h retracement fib maybe its indication I should have held on. Ill see how price plays out and keep it in mind for next time.

TheLegace
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,269
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:40pm Oct 9, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting jasius
Bo, I am so angry with myself, I entered long on a clear break of intraday long and it turned on me. Care to comment?
Its the effects of a ranging market, we have yet to hit an Intraday Target range yet this week which is a sign of weakness, even though support has been holding and price is slowing stair stepping up there isnt enough follow through to make it stick, all this week we have to be prepared for it to reverse and the downtrend to resume. Once it made the deep retracement from todays high it was almost in freefall. Intraday support initially held but the failure to reach the target range is a sign of weakness, once it retrurned into yesterdays high after making a new one is another sign of weakness. We may see more attempts made to push it back up but they will most likely fail again. Todays false break is a sign of possible giving up and the buyers just arnt there anymore. Its best to be looking at making short trades or just scalping until we see a more follow though whether it be a long or short market. Your exit for you long trade would have been the first previous candle low to break.
  • #6,270
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:44pm Oct 9, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting TheLegace
I took a pretty modest short on EU banked 52 pips. I know price is moving down further but based on the time of the day I didn't want to risk it. Considering it bounced of a larger 4h retracement fib maybe its indication I should have held on. Ill see how price plays out and keep it in mind for next time.

TheLegace
Not bad at all...dont hold em too long anyway even if it does go 100 pips farther after you close your trade. The conditions are rangy and erratic so we have to take baby steps until we see better conditions...all the fundamental issues around the globe aint helpin any either.
  • #6,271
  • Oct 9, 2008 4:47pm Oct 9, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting bjpumping
hello bobokus,i am looking at gbpusd since yesterday and its really moving.i placed a trade which i lost today though its a demo account and i am still learning, i think i just need more discipline.i think the range on the gbpusd is coming to an end.what do you think?were you able to make some pips today? happy pips taking.
I have been but im only taking 10-15 pip trades until we see better conditions, I think we may see the downtrending resume though. GBP cant buy a freind right now.
  • #6,272
  • Oct 9, 2008 6:00pm Oct 9, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting Bobokus
Not bad at all...dont hold em too long anyway even if it does go 100 pips farther after you close your trade. The conditions are rangy and erratic so we have to take baby steps until we see better conditions...all the fundamental issues around the globe aint helpin any either.
Well I'm taking a look at the price right now and price is definately stopped and stalled, and the risk definately wasn't worth holding onto the trade. It's always good to watch risk, and asses it constantly, I think trading has more to do with that then finding a place to exit out of a trade.

Cheers.
TheLegace.

PS. I will post up the trade, I guess I just got lucky I was watching charts at the right time, it's just computer still doesn't have MT4 setup, I am just using my phone to trade so it's pretty convenient wherever I go, man I love it.
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,273
  • Oct 9, 2008 8:10pm Oct 9, 2008 8:10pm
Looking like a great short in the usdchf...

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  • #6,274
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:39am Oct 10, 2008 7:39am
hello bo and everyone,i have made 30pips this morning,should have made much more but i had to leave my system and use take profit and price went farther down than the point i placed it,wonderful i think, isnt it!!it was on eurusd.
anyway,i just have this to share,i lost trade during the week and what i discovered is that there were some major news released at the time i placed the trade i lost.i used to have this style of trading before...i dont trade 30 minutes before and after a major news release that moves the market.since i started using fibonacci using bo's technique i have ignored this rule,but i started using it again and i am seeing results.what i discovered is that its better to allow a news event pass before entering the market cos it could go against one.i am only sharing what i used to usd before, dont know if this makes sense to anyone...but anyway, happy pips taking to all.
  • #6,275
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:45am Oct 10, 2008 7:45am
The news event will only matter if its strong enough enough to change the sentiments besides that it is simply a spike and then returns with its current trend...I trade mostly 4 hour so I personally dont bother with news
  • #6,276
  • Oct 10, 2008 7:53am Oct 10, 2008 7:53am
1)is my intrday fib drawn correct from 1.7405 to 1.6778? 2) would a trigger bar /candle somewhere between 1.7145 & 1.7016 be the thing to look for?
  • #6,277
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:00am Oct 10, 2008 8:00am
Quoting lmturek11
1)is my intrday fib drawn correct from 1.7405 to 1.6778? 2) would a trigger bar /candle somewhere between 1.7145 & 1.7016 be the thing to look for?

If you whant to short you can have a sell stop below the previous candles low ....ask yourself the question is it really worth coming in on whats left of friday and are you willing to maybe hold it over the weekend...

I am currencty long in the gbpusd since last night I am looking for an exit and I will let the market take me out since I am fallowing it with the previous candles low..

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  • #6,278
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:28am Oct 10, 2008 8:28am
Be very careful with shorts of gu now.
Look long term, there is serious resistance going back years at this point. 1.7050
This is what the big traders look at.
Price has gotten below this level, but got rejected and is now creating a perfect Pinbar on daily.
Gu could be about to recover
Short are scalps until a daily close below 1.7050
  • #6,279
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:30am Oct 10, 2008 8:30am
Quoting jicjoc
Be very careful with shorts of gu now.
Look long term, there is serious resistance going back years at this point. 1.7050
This is what the big traders look at.
Price has gotten below this level, but got rejected and is now creating a perfect Pinbar on daily.
Gu could be about to recover
Short are scalps until a daily close below 1.7050

Dont have a bias its either resistance holds or support holds...dont get ahead of yourself we still have alot of hours left in the day and resistance is yet to brake
  • #6,280
  • Oct 10, 2008 8:42am Oct 10, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Shermenator
If you whant to short you can have a sell stop below the previous candles low ....ask yourself the question is it really worth coming in on whats left of friday and are you willing to maybe hold it over the weekend...

I am currencty long in the gbpusd since last night I am looking for an exit and I will let the market take me out since I am fallowing it with the previous candles low..

Attachment
Sherm,is your long entry based on 4hr. chart?
I understand the logic behind this I'm just curios where your entry was on gbp/usd.
Thanks
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