No Brainer Trades

Quoting aSandman

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That is one the best posts I have ever read here, and I've read 10's of thousands. Thank you so much . I have been looking for simple correlations chart and "boom" there it is. I hope you guys have been making lots of pips in these huge moves. These are the kind of markets that are riff with emotions. You will never find a more fertile ground imho.

Jason

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.



By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.



By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

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By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.



By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting copi88

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Hi Billy

Joined your thread a couple weeks ago and read the PDF. I have been doing really well following your stratetgies. Made 210 pips today on various trades. 6 winners and one loser. One of them was the EUR recommendation of yours at 1.3735.

Thanks for all the effort you put in to your blog. I like the principle of kiss and trading with no indicators.

Supa
C

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Quoting aSandman

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That is one the best posts I have ever read here, and I've read 10's of thousands. Thank you so much .

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.

By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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I've been meaning to write this for a while. Needless to say its on the blog....those on the list might have seen it already. Its in response to one of the most common questions I get about sentiment and fundamentals, and how to use them.
--------------
Part of my daily routine always involves a thorough check on market fundamentals and sentiment in order to forecast price movement for the following day. For me, its not optional, its required, for a number of different reasons. The main ones being:

·Catch the trend and let my trades ride confidently
·Increase my win rate
·Increase confidence in longer term perspective for trades that follow in the days to come

All three of which can be summed up into: increasing profits.

There are a lot of factors that go into the price of a currency, and many different forces acting on them throughout the day. In addition to a technical analysis of the currencies I’m trading, I do a technical/fundamental analysis of the following when I’m preparing for the day.

·Equity markets worldwide (close attention to US, Europe, UK, Asia and Australia)
·Gold
·Crude Oil
·The Dollar Index

The largest thing I care about is what the market is focused on and how will it affect price. I’ll describe the relationships all of these share with currencies in just a bit.

Money is not created or destroyed, it just moves from one place and into another. The money tied up in carry trades could end up in bonds. Euro hedges on equities could be sold off and USD bought in return. An investor sells USD and buys Gold, viewing it as a safer investment, etc etc. The possibilities can be endless, but all we care about are the big ones and ultimately how it will affect the price of what we want to trade.

As I write this article USD is in a huge uptrend. The main cause of this is equity indices declining worldwide, and other currencies are being sold as equities are being sold. When this happens, people need to buy dollars, as USD is pegged directly to most of these major currencies. So as investors sell EURO, for example, they need to buy USD.

Just like anything else, the market trades in fads. One day an issue is hot, the next day its not. Traders across the globe are reading the news and reacting to it. You need to be on the side of the majority controlling price. Its not as difficult as it seems, it just takes a lot of diligence reading the news and understanding everything that’s affecting your trade.

I don’t mean to turn you into an economist here; you’re not. Your specialty is trading. But you have to understand what’s moving price in order to be on the same page as everyone else. At the end of the day you’ll have greater confidence in your trades and a much better understanding of how everything operates in the world’s largest market.

Back to the details. There are certain relationships that all of the above listed items share, and the obvious reason I care about other markets so much is because they are affecting the price of the currencies. In a nutshell, the table below describes the basic relationships between these markets and the correlations they share.

But just because all of the relationships exist, doesn’t mean they move with each other all the time. On one day EUR/USD might be declining because Oil is dropping hard, but on another day Oil will be dropping hard and EUR/USD is moving higher because of interest rate speculation.

There are many other things that can be said about the markets and pairs on the table above; its by no means the full story, but they’re the basic relationships to be aware of.

For the S&P, Crude Oil and Gold, I’ll also do the same technical analysis I do on the currency markets daily. Ultimately I’m just looking to forecast, and realize that these relationships exist. Technicals work in these other markets in the same way they do in the currency market. If the S&P hits major resistance, for example, USD/JPY has a good chance of turning as well.

They key is to zone in on what the market cares about at any given point in time and react to it. Again, they’re all fads, and some last longer than others. Hysteria and human intervention is what ultimately drives any market, so above all, its key to hone in on what the majority of traders/investors care about and trade along with it.

If I make any recommendation, its to simply read the news. Dig through credible news sources like Bloomberg, Reuters or the Financial Times and take a hard look at what the hottest issues are in order to understand what’s moving the value of the currencies you’re trading. After a while you’ll become more and more comfortable at recognizing the factors that are shifting things around. I also have a live news feed from Bloomberg and IFR Markets next to me all day long. Unexpected events can run the currency market like nuts, so its important I know what’s going at all times. This feed has both made me and saved me a lot of money over time, and I would definitely suggest using one.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.



By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

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Quoting komalsid

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BRV,

As a new trader it's very hard to follow all the news-website as mentioned on your blog.Pls advise which one is good to start.Sorry for such a stupid question but as you mentioned that it's good to learn it right.

Komal.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thank you! Many many thanks.



By the way is anyone using the levels I post in the blog? I havent heard any reactions yet..........

Ignored

Quoting spekitox

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There should be a street named after BRV.
Or at least a statue somewhere.
Everyone throws in 1 pip per trade won - there will be a 30 ft tall solid gold statue next year.

Ignored

Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

I've been meaning to write this for a while. Needless to say its on the blog....those on the list might have seen it already. Its in response to one of the most common questions I get about sentiment and fundamentals, and how to use them.
--------------
Part of my daily routine always involves a thorough check on market fundamentals and sentiment in order to forecast price movement for the following day. For me, its not optional, its required, for a number of different reasons. The main ones being:

·Catch the trend and let my trades ride confidently
·Increase my win rate
·Increase confidence in longer term perspective for trades that follow in the days to come

All three of which can be summed up into: increasing profits.

There are a lot of factors that go into the price of a currency, and many different forces acting on them throughout the day. In addition to a technical analysis of the currencies I’m trading, I do a technical/fundamental analysis of the following when I’m preparing for the day.

·Equity markets worldwide (close attention to US, Europe, UK, Asia and Australia)
·Gold
·Crude Oil
·The Dollar Index

The largest thing I care about is what the market is focused on and how will it affect price. I’ll describe the relationships all of these share with currencies in just a bit.

Money is not created or destroyed, it just moves from one place and into another. The money tied up in carry trades could end up in bonds. Euro hedges on equities could be sold off and USD bought in return. An investor sells USD and buys Gold, viewing it as a safer investment, etc etc. The possibilities can be endless, but all we care about are the big ones and ultimately how it will affect the price of what we want to trade.

As I write this article USD is in a huge uptrend. The main cause of this is equity indices declining worldwide, and other currencies are being sold as equities are being sold. When this happens, people need to buy dollars, as USD is pegged directly to most of these major currencies. So as investors sell EURO, for example, they need to buy USD.

Just like anything else, the market trades in fads. One day an issue is hot, the next day its not. Traders across the globe are reading the news and reacting to it. You need to be on the side of the majority controlling price. Its not as difficult as it seems, it just takes a lot of diligence reading the news and understanding everything that’s affecting your trade.

I don’t mean to turn you into an economist here; you’re not. Your specialty is trading. But you have to understand what’s moving price in order to be on the same page as everyone else. At the end of the day you’ll have greater confidence in your trades and a much better understanding of how everything operates in the world’s largest market.

Back to the details. There are certain relationships that all of the above listed items share, and the obvious reason I care about other markets so much is because they are affecting the price of the currencies. In a nutshell, the table below describes the basic relationships between these markets and the correlations they share.

But just because all of the relationships exist, doesn’t mean they move with each other all the time. On one day EUR/USD might be declining because Oil is dropping hard, but on another day Oil will be dropping hard and EUR/USD is moving higher because of interest rate speculation.

There are many other things that can be said about the markets and pairs on the table above; its by no means the full story, but they’re the basic relationships to be aware of.

For the S&P, Crude Oil and Gold, I’ll also do the same technical analysis I do on the currency markets daily. Ultimately I’m just looking to forecast, and realize that these relationships exist. Technicals work in these other markets in the same way they do in the currency market. If the S&P hits major resistance, for example, USD/JPY has a good chance of turning as well.

They key is to zone in on what the market cares about at any given point in time and react to it. Again, they’re all fads, and some last longer than others. Hysteria and human intervention is what ultimately drives any market, so above all, its key to hone in on what the majority of traders/investors care about and trade along with it.

If I make any recommendation, its to simply read the news. Dig through credible news sources like Bloomberg, Reuters or the Financial Times and take a hard look at what the hottest issues are in order to understand what’s moving the value of the currencies you’re trading. After a while you’ll become more and more comfortable at recognizing the factors that are shifting things around. I also have a live news feed from Bloomberg and IFR Markets next to me all day long. Unexpected events can run the currency market like nuts, so its important I know what’s going at all times. This feed has both made me and saved me a lot of money over time, and I would definitely suggest using one.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Nothing stupid if you dont know you dont know. I always recommend using oanda's news (IFR Markets - Reuters) and just reading bloomberg. To get the oanda feed you need a demo, open the platform and go to resources>news and start digging around like mad.

By far they're my favorite.....but I'm always on Bloomberg as well.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

Disliked

Nothing stupid if you dont know you dont know. I always recommend using oanda's news (IFR Markets - Reuters) and just reading bloomberg. To get the oanda feed you need a demo, open the platform and go to resources>news and start digging around like mad.

By far they're my favorite.....but I'm always on Bloomberg as well.

Ignored