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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #14,181
  • Oct 5, 2008 7:59pm Oct 5, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting aSandman
Hi everyone, I was considering at what point do you consider a trend line invalid? Do you have any hard and fast rule on this? I noticed Ghous let price swing way past and Mike considered that invalid. I'm coming up on page 300 of the thread but have yet to find a "J16" answer for trend lines.

Thanks!
Jason
Depends on which version of the question you are asking.

Trend line as an on-going trade maker or just as a definition?

I don't like "waaay past" . But I have no problems with taking a trade that has the balance of the price bar pattern on the right side of the trend line. ...The beauty of trading price bars as Jim teaches.

A great example is an inside bar that sits on a trend line. The preceding (larger bar) can disrespect the trendline for all I care. If the smaller bar (the inside bar itself) then sits neatly within the confines of the trendline again then I'd call that a great set up. Within reason of course. ....there goes that discretion thing again. lol

The less disrespect the better. ...Like all things in trading, nothing can beat taking only the best.

In terms of definition. If you can't define a clear trend line than it doesn't exist. At least for yourself. Find what works for you. You'll probably always improve over time in this area. I have. Still do.

Try drawing trendlines off of your line charts ('close price' charts) . That's when you get to see trendlines being not so perfect. Yet at the same time obviously powerful.

,Bundy
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,182
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:05am Oct 6, 2008 7:05am
Gbp/Usd 4 hour PB. Counter trend trade. Catch the pips quick.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,183
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:11am Oct 6, 2008 7:11am
Couple of 4 hour PBs toward the gap on the Euro
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,184
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:19am Oct 6, 2008 7:19am
Quoting jarroo
Gbp/Usd 4 hour PB. Counter trend trade. Catch the pips quick.
I like the bottom of this PPZ at the top of the gap for a 1st likely target.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,185
  • Oct 6, 2008 8:25am Oct 6, 2008 8:25am
Quoting jarroo
I like the bottom of this PPZ at the top of the gap for a 1st likely target.
Counter trend trading is a tough way to go.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,186
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:07am Oct 6, 2008 9:07am
Quoting jarroo
Counter trend trading is a tough way to go.

Yep and people lose everyday on this thread doing it but they never learn. Once people understand how to trade a trend then they start to make money, until that happens they will lose over and over. I watched you post that trade and looked back and you can see 80% of the bars go lower so what makes you think it's just going to flip around?

Do this test.

Take a rock, have someone throw it at you do you move? I bet you do because the TREND is not going to change for no reason, what you are doing right now is getting hit in the head everytime by the rock.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #14,187
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:13am Oct 6, 2008 9:13am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yep and people lose everyday on this thread doing it but they never learn. Once people understand how to trade a trend then they start to make money, until that happens they will lose over and over. I watched you post that trade and looked back and you can see 80% of the bars go lower so what makes you think it's just going to flip around?

Do this test.

Take a rock, have someone throw it at you do you move? I bet you do because the TREND is not going to change for no reason, what you are doing right now is getting hit in the head everytime by the rock.
Jaroo, I had similar experience on Thur-Fri last week when good reversal patterns didn't work. You see that pattern, you see the 14-month low across dollar pairs and you think - how low can it go. But right now the market has little logic - it can dig deeper and deeper.

The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #14,188
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:18am Oct 6, 2008 9:18am
I'm riding good right now. 4hour Ib break Gbp/Jpy. Look at her go.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,189
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:20am Oct 6, 2008 9:20am
Quoting jarroo
I'm riding good right now. 4hour Ib break Gbp/Jpy. Look at her go.

Nice TREND trade! Now stop being stupid with the counter trend stuff and make some money
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #14,190
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:21am Oct 6, 2008 9:21am
Quoting Forex007
Jaroo, I had similar experience on Thur-Fri last week when good reversal patterns didn't work. You see that pattern, you see the 14-month low across dollar pairs and you think - how low can it go. But right now the market has little logic - it can dig deeper and deeper.

The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..

The market is not the norm right now. I watch the 5min charts about 6-8 hours a day and I got 2 quick trades in last week for +4% but most of the time I get 8-10 trades, so far 0 trades today, all huge bars and huge risk.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #14,191
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:21am Oct 6, 2008 9:21am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yep and people lose everyday on this thread doing it but they never learn. Once people understand how to trade a trend then they start to make money, until that happens they will lose over and over. I watched you post that trade and looked back and you can see 80% of the bars go lower so what makes you think it's just going to flip around?

Do this test.

Take a rock, have someone throw it at you do you move? I bet you do because the TREND is not going to change for no reason, what you are doing right now is getting hit in the head everytime by the rock.


I hear ya Ryan.

Small position. Tight stops. Quick pips. Counter tend trading.

Or avoid all together.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,192
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:22am Oct 6, 2008 9:22am
UJ monthly just hit first take profit area, looks like we may be headed for 95 again. Last time I posted this chart 2 weeks ago many other people were bullish targeting 110-111. I'm not trying to brag or show off or anything, just want to show that this stuff works very very well on long timeframes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,193
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:24am Oct 6, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Nice TREND trade! Now stop being stupid with the counter trend stuff and make some money


You got it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,194
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:24am Oct 6, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Nice TREND trade! Now stop being stupid with the counter trend stuff and make some money
SURE
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  • #14,195
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:28am Oct 6, 2008 9:28am
Quoting Forex007
Jaroo, I had similar experience on Thur-Fri last week when good reversal patterns didn't work. You see that pattern, you see the 14-month low across dollar pairs and you think - how low can it go. But right now the market has little logic - it can dig deeper and deeper.

The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..
I think it's best to wait for HL/HH after downtrend or LH/LL after an uptrend before you start to want to fight the trend unless there is a ton of confluence.
  • #14,196
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:29am Oct 6, 2008 9:29am
Quoting Forex007
Jaroo, I had similar experience on Thur-Fri last week when good reversal patterns didn't work. You see that pattern, you see the 14-month low across dollar pairs and you think - how low can it go. But right now the market has little logic - it can dig deeper and deeper.

The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..
Higher time frames will be the key. Weekly and Monthly
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #14,197
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:35am Oct 6, 2008 9:35am
Quoting benssol
SURE

Too many trades for me, I used to scalp the S&P like that CT trading, 3-5 a day was the goal and .25 to .75 per trade was a lot of work
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #14,198
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:37am Oct 6, 2008 9:37am
Quoting Forex007
The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..
When they're significant.

I'll be the first one to post an example if we get a good reversal sign. ...Not expecting one any time soon.

In the mean time , personally, I have no problem just running with the trend, as Ryan keeps pointing out. Pride ain't stoppin' me from makin money.

Everyone is going safe with their money. Don't expect any major reversals here.

"He who picks bottom gets smelly finger" as Phil McGrew mentioned a while back.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,199
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:40am Oct 6, 2008 9:40am
Quoting Betard
I think it's best to wait for HL/HH after downtrend or LH/LL after an uptrend before you start to want to fight the trend unless there is a ton of confluence.


He's on to it. Same.

Won't get away with sloppy at the moment. It'll kill ya.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #14,200
  • Edited 11:10am Oct 6, 2008 9:40am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Too many trades for me, I used to scalp the S&P like that CT trading, 3-5 a day was the goal and .25 to .75 per trade was a lot of work
UNTIL NOW I'm up 50% in my account

those days didnt come every week, and only a fool who miss them

I can live for one year with today's profit
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