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  • #4,021
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:27am Oct 6, 2008 2:27am
Quoting Willowgal
Thanks ... I think I will get over to Amazon and buy that book.

Cheers
Yup, that book is the Bible of stock trading/investing. It's the only reference I use.

@Willowgal: I've read more than 10.000 pages over two and a half years (on stock trading/investing) and not one book included so much wisdom on short term trading, as BRV has gives us.
  • #4,022
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:27am Oct 6, 2008 2:27am
Quoting birdt
Anyone ever noticed that some pairs display their support and resistance levels easier than others? EURUSD shows them clearly and they hold often. GBPUSD I find more difficult to see. S+R on USDJPY is easy to spot, but GBPJPY is sketchy. This reminded of something akuma99 posted a long time ago, which may be beneficial to those seeking S/R levels to trade.

I have found that often it is worth looking at the close values of each major time period on these 'tricky pairs' to see if they give any more clues. It appears some pairs place a greater significance on the highs and lows, whereas other pairs the support and resistance is more likely to exist at the close of the 1H, 4H and daily TF bars. Time is a significant factor, some might say it is even more important than price. Many analysts only consider support/resistance to be broken if a bar closes beyond it, so does it not follow that we should also construct our S+R levels on the closes of these bars?

Here's an example of using line charts (dot to dot of the close price on a 1H chart for GBPUSD), with support and resistance defined as levels where the price close line touched and was rejected multiple times either in polarity shifts or where price consolidated. I think we can clearly see that the levels are fairly obvious, and the pivots that defined the levels have been marked out with magenta circles.
Yup - again loking for those hourly closes; they generally hold the most weight and confirm breakouts.....some more color here:
http://nobrainertrades.blogspot.com/...nd-trader.html
also the cross pairs can be generally harder to find these areas on. The majors typically work the best.
  • #4,023
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:28am Oct 6, 2008 2:28am
Quoting bluesbrother
Isn't that why we're all here, to learn from each other???
100%
  • #4,024
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:34am Oct 6, 2008 2:34am
Quoting boomswitch
Hello BRV,
Do you sometimes take trades countertrend big time like the one I join here.
I set a limit order like a stupid donkey and it hit the stop loss of 40 pips in like 5 minutes. But I guess if you see some price action setup on the H1 or H4 chart you would take it ?

Do you use limit orders only for orders matching the trend (pullbacks) ?
Hi Boomswitch - Nope - I will take them occassionally, in fact I think I posted this area just tonight,,,,,it all depends on what's going on out there in general and if I feel things arent running completely out of hand.
  • #4,025
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:40am Oct 6, 2008 2:40am
Quoting faab12
Dear BillyRayValentine

I started reading your thread and have a question for the pattern, bottom of the bucket. I am not sure I understood correctly U formation or "Cup". In your chart, the price droped from 1.4766 and made a bottom.It reversed all the way up to 1.4766 level which means that the price movement looks like U turn. Is it right entry point for short where the price complete making U formation?

I thank you for sharing your thread.

faab
Hi Faab, best way I can describe it, in words, is price will make a "U" formation at some point. In this example, lets say the "U" is pointing up. Price will move up, and then come back down towards the bottom of the "U", not the handles, and reverse..... If you take a look at the visual examples they might be of better help to you. Its hard to write it out.

In the visual example here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3156

...that you referenced, when price came back up and tested the bottom of the inverted "U", the first circle at 1.4766 (first test) of that area, would have been your entry short.
  • #4,026
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:42am Oct 6, 2008 2:42am
1.7446 marks the low made back on Sept. 11; looking for a bounce off of the actual monthly 50% retracement at 1.7420.

Keep in mind I'm a little weary on this one given the current trend but will keep you posted,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #4,027
  • Oct 6, 2008 2:52am Oct 6, 2008 2:52am
I ended up taking that 1.3550 area posted in the blog on EUR by the way so so far so good - I reeeeeealy want to see some attempt at shutting this gap here but first target is around 1.3670 for me, about 120 pips away. Need to break 3600 first upside.
  • #4,028
  • Oct 6, 2008 5:22am Oct 6, 2008 5:22am
Been looking at Oanda's news page for the first time. Opened up some trading pages but don't really understand some of what I see. One of them is copied below (apologies for resultant length of post). I'll be grateful if anyone can explain the meaning of "}". "!" and "[]". Even better if someone could turn it into everyday layman-speak. That would (might?) give me the key to de-code the other trading pages.

EUR/CHF Trading Page

06 October 2008 11:10:00
3 [IFR Forex Watch] (C) 08 ^^^2344
! [ EUR/CHF TRADING PAGE ]
! [SPOT] ![TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] ![RECOMMENDATION] ! [POSITION] !
} 1.5860(M) Daily Low Sept 26 Sell A Failure [SHORT at]
} 1.5780(M) 10-Day MA Sell A Failure [1.5650]
} 1.5700(M) Hourly Highs Oct 3 Buy Stops Above
} 1.5630(M) Hourly Lows Oct 2 Sell A Failure !Open!02/10/08
[1.5511] 10:10 MON 06 OCT } !TIME!23:46
} 1.5365(M) 1.618 of 1.6377/1.5990 Cover On A Bounce
} 1.5335(M) Trend Low Mar 17 Take Profit, Sell Break !TGT !1.5350
} 1.5295(M) Weekly low Jun 05 Cover On A Bounce !Stop!1.5710
} 1.5080(M) Trend Low Nov 04 Cover On A Bounce

Thanks.
David
  • #4,029
  • Oct 6, 2008 6:19am Oct 6, 2008 6:19am
Quoting Grath
Been looking at Oanda's news page for the first time. Opened up some trading pages but don't really understand some of what I see. One of them is copied below (apologies for resultant length of post). I'll be grateful if anyone can explain the meaning of "}". "!" and "[]". Even better if someone could turn it into everyday layman-speak. That would (might?) give me the key to de-code the other trading pages.

EUR/CHF Trading Page

06 October 2008 11:10:00
3 [IFR Forex Watch] (C) 08 ^^^2344
! [ EUR/CHF TRADING PAGE ]
! [SPOT] ![TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] ![RECOMMENDATION] ! [POSITION] !
} 1.5860(M) Daily Low Sept 26 Sell A Failure [SHORT at]
} 1.5780(M) 10-Day MA Sell A Failure [1.5650]
} 1.5700(M) Hourly Highs Oct 3 Buy Stops Above
} 1.5630(M) Hourly Lows Oct 2 Sell A Failure !Open!02/10/08
[1.5511] 10:10 MON 06 OCT } !TIME!23:46
} 1.5365(M) 1.618 of 1.6377/1.5990 Cover On A Bounce
} 1.5335(M) Trend Low Mar 17 Take Profit, Sell Break !TGT !1.5350
} 1.5295(M) Weekly low Jun 05 Cover On A Bounce !Stop!1.5710
} 1.5080(M) Trend Low Nov 04 Cover On A Bounce

Thanks.
David
The exclaimation points basically mean open positions. and the other stuff just fluff.....and then they have recommendations on what to do based on each tech level....pretty much how it goes. Sometimes theyre right sometimes not but you'll see that I use these for confirmations a lot of times....many times they line up perfectly with what I come up with but I always do my own analysis first. I've learned over time my own judgement is usually better than anything else because Im the one thats trading it after all.
  • #4,030
  • Oct 6, 2008 6:51am Oct 6, 2008 6:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I ended up taking that 1.3550 area posted in the blog on EUR by the way so so far so good - I reeeeeealy want to see some attempt at shutting this gap here but first target is around 1.3670 for me, about 120 pips away. Need to break 3600 first upside.
hi there!
this 1,3600 is giving me a headache...seems to be a major resistance somehow...we need to overcome 1,3615 to go further maybe...but still in since 1,3556 with s/l there

cheers,
555
  • #4,031
  • Oct 6, 2008 6:56am Oct 6, 2008 6:56am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
The exclaimation points basically mean open positions. and the other stuff just fluff.....and then they have recommendations on what to do based on each tech level....pretty much how it goes. Sometimes theyre right sometimes not but you'll see that I use these for confirmations a lot of times....many times they line up perfectly with what I come up with but I always do my own analysis first. I've learned over time my own judgement is usually better than anything else because Im the one thats trading it after all.
Thanks, BRV.

I was in there trying to do pretty much the same thing, after marking up my chart. It's the jargon that gets me: "Sell A Failure, Buy Stops Above, Cover On A Bounce, Trend Low Mar 17 Take Profit, Sell Break". It's like trying to converse in German when you only know Latin. I need a jargon-buster!

David
  • #4,032
  • Oct 6, 2008 6:58am Oct 6, 2008 6:58am
Quoting 555_hh
hi there!
this 1,3600 is giving me a headache...seems to be a major resistance somehow...we need to overcome 1,3615 to go further maybe...but still in since 1,3556 with s/l there

cheers,
555

yup.......diagonal trendline needed to break, which it just did. Now looking for more bullish patterns through the 36's, which in general is going to be a hard stomping ground for EUR to get through. Not a bad level after all though its up about +70 pips from 1.3550.
  • #4,033
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:02am Oct 6, 2008 7:02am
Quoting 555_hh
hi there!
this 1,3600 is giving me a headache...seems to be a major resistance somehow...we need to overcome 1,3615 to go further maybe...but still in since 1,3556 with s/l there

cheers,
555
I'm in at 1.3590 based on the M15 timeframe and holding! It just broke 1.3625 now.
  • #4,034
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:04am Oct 6, 2008 7:04am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yup.......diagonal trendline needed to break, which it just did. Now looking for more bullish patterns through the 36's, which in general is going to be a hard stomping ground for EUR to get through.
done!

s/L moved to 1,3596 now and let it run!
  • #4,035
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:31am Oct 6, 2008 7:31am
Quoting 555_hh
done!

s/L moved to 1,3596 now and let it run!
Well it could retrace below the trendline....it happens pretty frequently just a heads up......it just pulled back below it and looks like it might so some more digging protection I would recommend just in case.
  • #4,036
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:31am Oct 6, 2008 7:31am
Hi Lemmingboiv, glad to see you thinking out of the box. Monthly pivots are excellent S&R lines. That said, play around with your fibs from monthly support to resistance lines. (Hint, pay close attention to where the first hour opens and closes in relation to your S&R lines are. Draw your fibs between these lines and watch were the price goes the rest of the day.) Put 15 and 85 on your fib tool. They are very important #'s to watch using this method.


Quoting lemmingboiv2
none taken. . That being said.... again its short of the real top but . . . still

http://i34.tinypic.com/arv5d.jpg

And I'll drop it. . . just thought it was interesting
  • #4,037
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:36am Oct 6, 2008 7:36am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Well it could retrace below the trendline....it happens pretty frequently just a heads up......it just pulled back below it and looks like it might so some more digging protection I would recommend just in case.
got out at +40..well ...looking to get in again at 1,3590-95 or so
  • #4,038
  • Oct 6, 2008 7:54am Oct 6, 2008 7:54am
Quoting 555_hh
got out at +40..well ...looking to get in again at 1,3590-95 or so
This is the main problem I have with my trading... whether to get out when it starts to retrace and get in again later or just ride the retracement?

Hopefully, this will be a significant move up but if not then the profit that could have been taken has been 'retraced-away'.

BRV... are you still in this EURUSD trade?

PS... I am but wishing I had got out now
  • #4,039
  • Oct 6, 2008 8:10am Oct 6, 2008 8:10am
Quoting Willowgal
This is the main problem I have with my trading... whether to get out when it starts to retrace and get in again later or just ride the retracement?

Hopefully, this will be a significant move up but if not then the profit that could have been taken has been 'retraced-away'.

BRV... are you still in this EURUSD trade?

PS... I am but wishing I had got out now
well, depends also on position size.. i need to get out because i can not sell partially (well i could, but it would cost me additional fees as i'm trading currently in this environment the minimum lot size of 0.5 to be on the save side with a gearing of 1:1). in this case, i would have sold half of my position at +40 and the other at breakeven.

i'm still not in yet as the 1,3600 seems to be a real hurdle...
  • #4,040
  • Oct 6, 2008 8:35am Oct 6, 2008 8:35am
Quoting Willowgal
This is the main problem I have with my trading... whether to get out when it starts to retrace and get in again later or just ride the retracement?

Hopefully, this will be a significant move up but if not then the profit that could have been taken has been 'retraced-away'.

BRV... are you still in this EURUSD trade?

PS... I am but wishing I had got out now
Hi there, no sorry I took the money and ran for the time being. The US equity index is falling hard and more risk is leaving the table; more people in need of USD, so we're likely to see EUR, GBP and others decline if this continues. Right now the level is still holding, however, so its not over yet, though the chances of it going up very fast are a little less now, though still there for sure.
Those 3600's I was expecting to pose some difficulty and they sure seemed to do just that. I'm looking to call it a day personally or I might have tried to squeeze more out of it......right now just very mixed sentiment around here.
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