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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #6,861
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:37pm Feb 22, 2007 8:37pm
Fundimentaly speaking I think that the USD is much stronger then the market is giving it credit for. Technicaly speaking it all depends on what indicators you are using, but for the most part I think the USD is gearing up to take back some of what it gave up over the last few months. I’m looking for the GBP/USD to fall back down to 9200 area in the next week or so, if not lower. I do not see 9800 or even 9700 happening any time soon.

As for the current time frame: I think that the German Ifo Business Climate Index will come in worse then expected (1am pst / 4am est) which will drop the euro below the 1.3080 area (maybe 1.3050ish) and the GBP/USD will be dragged down with it to somewhere around 9480ish or lower and will close out the week below 9500. Next week I see this drop continuing and we’ll see 9300 or lower by the end of next week.

Those of you who are long - I hope that I am wrong
Those of you who are short - I hope that I am right

Good Luck To Everyone!

This is only my own assessment and by no means should be used to make your own trades. Always trade with caution and ONLY trade what YOU see & believe!
  • #6,862
  • Edited 11:01pm Feb 22, 2007 9:21pm | Edited 11:01pm
Based upon the recent Daily Candles, I calculated the current range at:
Low at 1.9512
High at 1.9612
Middle 1.9560/65

The news later today will dictate which direction we will go first.

I have no reason to believe that the news would be strong enough to push the price below 1.9500 or above 1.9620.

Downward projection:
1.9532/35 will act as support for a move downward temporarily, but once it is breached 1.9520/22 will show support before the move continues down to 1.9515 area -1.9508/12 will be the extension of the downward move - then price should bounce from 1.9500 (max low point) back up and test 1.9527 area before returning back up into the range in the 1.9560 area.

Upward projection:
1.9589/90 will act as resistance for a move upward temporarily, but once it is breached 1.9594/1.9600 will show resisitance before the move continues up to 1.9606 area - 1.9612/15 will be the extension of the upward move - then price should bounce from 1.9620 (max high point) back down and test 1.9494 area before returning back down into range in the 1.9560 area.
Attached Image
  • #6,863
  • Feb 22, 2007 9:23pm Feb 22, 2007 9:23pm
Quoting golatigo
Fundimentaly speaking I think that the USD is much stronger then the market is giving it credit for. Technicaly speaking it all depends on what indicators you are using, but for the most part I think the USD is gearing up to take back some of what it gave up over the last few months. I’m looking for the GBP/USD to fall back down to 9200 area in the next week or so, if not lower. I do not see 9800 or even 9700 happening any time soon.

As for the current time frame: I think that the German Ifo Business Climate Index will come in worse then expected (1am pst / 4am est) which will drop the euro below the 1.3080 area (maybe 1.3050ish) and the GBP/USD will be dragged down with it to somewhere around 9480ish or lower and will close out the week below 9500. Next week I see this drop continuing and we’ll see 9300 or lower by the end of next week.

Those of you who are long - I hope that I am wrong
Those of you who are short - I hope that I am right

Good Luck To Everyone!

This is only my own assessment and by no means should be used to make your own trades. Always trade with caution and ONLY trade what YOU see & believe!
Well another bear in the house.

Well the US 10 Year Treasury Note has been up for todays already.

Gold just waiting to go down. In fact it is now at USD676.

E/U doesnt look it will rally, hehe.

Also, USD/CHF has been going up higher recently.

We are still in the triangle and not yet breakout yet. I guess most traders yesterday thought we are going long big time but not yet.

Anyway we are back to the magical 1.9555 level

Yesterday we didnt touch 1.9444 or 1.9666 level.

So the game is still on. Bull VS Bear . See you.
  • #6,864
  • Edited 11:07pm Feb 22, 2007 10:00pm | Edited 11:07pm
Quoting monarch
Thanks for the informative chart.

Very good analyis you put together.

I am looking across the charts now trying to see anything that would stand out. The news later may push the Cable up to the 1.9600/15 area, or down to the 1.9515/22 area, but I do not see any news coming out during the London session that would cause a move over 50 pips either way.

I expect 1.9560-70 area to be the middle of the range prior to Frankfurt and London Open.

We will try some live trade calling here during the Frankfurt and London open.

I would appreciate everyone who can to participate during this time.

Remember, great ranging like this makes nice scalping opportunities.

Lets all work together and pull some profits!
Who is WE? Those on the forum, or do you have a 4x company?
If the WE is those on the forum, aren't you leery conflicting signals?
Are you going to charge for the signals, or are you a successful full time trader that is going to share your wealth of experience to the newbies?
Are you full time?
If so, approx. what is your daily/weekly/monthly/anuual profits from 4x?
Thanks.
  • #6,865
  • Feb 22, 2007 10:25pm Feb 22, 2007 10:25pm
Are we looking at a downtrend for today? That 9600 is acting as a lot of resistance...I dont think it's going to pass it today either.
  • #6,866
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:06pm Feb 22, 2007 11:06pm
I added a Chart to Post #6865, I lost electric for an hour, and couldn't post it at the same time.
  • #6,867
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:42pm Feb 22, 2007 11:42pm
Quoting Just1Pip
Who is WE? Those on the forum, or do you have a 4x company?
If the WE is those on the forum, aren't you leery conflicting signals?
Are you going to charge for the signals, or are you a successful full time trader that is going to share your wealth of experience to the newbies?
Are you full time?
If so, approx. what is your daily/weekly/monthly/anuual profits from 4x?
Thanks.

On Post 6865 I was refering to "we" as those who will follow the price when it moves, that could include you if your watching the price move at the time it moves, or anyone who trades the Forex can become the "we" in this sentence.

On Post 6862 I was refering to "we" as a few individuals I personally work with during daily analysis.
I also read many post here on the thread stating traders positions, so the "we" could stand for every one who places their calls here on the thread while they trade.

"We will try some live trade calling here during the Frankfurt and London open."

Now concerning the personal questions you are asking above.

From your signature, I am hesitant in answering any of your questions.

My intentions are not as you think, wealth is something that many seek, but few attain. It is none of anyones business if someone trades mini lots or standard lots, or if they make 10.00 or 1,000.00 a day.

I have never mentioned -ever- a signal providing service, and I have never asked anyone to trade my calls, or even considered the information I am giving as a signal.

If I help a newbie, so be it, my intentions is to simply place my analysis here, with an occasional post of my actual trades.

The way I see it, "we" have three choices in Forex:
Buy - Sell - Sit

With these choices we obtain two results:
Profit or Loss

"we" have two choices with this thread:
Read or Participate

With these choices "we" obtain two results:
Involement and Experience
  • #6,868
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:51pm Feb 22, 2007 11:51pm
Well said Monarch
  • #6,869
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:02am Feb 23, 2007 12:02am
Well I guess IŽm a newbie in this thread, IŽve been following it since last week, and almost all posts have helped me to make some profits, specially the ones from Monarch and HonaForex, this after a serious loss on my accounts and in my confidence..... Keep it as it is, I guess IŽm not the only one learning a lot here.

Great thread.
See ya
  • #6,870
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:03am Feb 23, 2007 12:03am
she's acting bullish 1.9560 long
  • #6,871
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:05am Feb 23, 2007 12:05am
same here. Long @1.9560 TP at @1.9615.
  • #6,872
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:20am Feb 23, 2007 12:20am
I just do not see how some of you are so sure that this pair is going to go up tonight. From my point of view it is pure gambling when there is about as good reasons for it to go down as up.

Am I missing something which clearly indicates that this pair is more likely to go up?
  • #6,873
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:25am Feb 23, 2007 12:25am
From the Low 1.9460 at (London Session) to the High at 1.9600 (US Session)
the 38.% Fibo would be 1.9547.

The Low since 1.9600 was 1.9549 not completing the 38.2% retracement, this would indicate a bullish move possibly starting at the Frankfurt and London opens.

The only thing standing in the way would be the upcoming news here in
1 and 1/2 hours.

This make me hesitant to make an entry.

11:45pm EURFrench Consumer Spending m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
1:00am EURGerman Ifo Business Climate Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
1:00am EURGerman Ifo Business Expectations Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
1:30am GBPGDP q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif

1:30am GBPTotal Car Production 3m/3m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
  • #6,874
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:26am Feb 23, 2007 12:26am
Good morning everyone!
It's still early a bit, I hope in the FRA and London session g/u will get stronger a bit, I'm already long on this pair. Just like others if I read correctly.

Just1Pip: you should act a little bit less aggressive imho, this thread is one of the best available across the internet, and it reflects the hard and free of charge work of many professional traders like Monarch, Traex, henrycarol, thunder, HonaForex, etc.
Please try to add to their work, if you can't, don't add anything IMHO.

Mark
  • #6,875
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:39am Feb 23, 2007 12:39am
Well said MarkGavalda!!!
I think that if some of us canŽt cooperate in this thread, we shouldnŽt either try to bring it down.
  • #6,876
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:40am Feb 23, 2007 12:40am
Thank you Monarch for not only starting this excellent thread, but also for puting up with many unhelpful comments and for coming back and continuing your first rate analysis.

I see that the Asian session has had a low at 9549 - the highest probability off my 5m EW analysis was 9547. If this low holds and the up move continues, my W5 targets are 9619 / 9638.

IŽll post if I see a continuation starting, but at present its looking short term negative.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,877
  • Edited 1:04am Feb 23, 2007 12:41am | Edited 1:04am
We have been pretty dead in the water you would say.

The price has been locked in a "tug o war" between 1.9557 and 1.9569. LOL.

I have the upper line to breach at 1.9562 then 1.9582.

On the lower line to breach at 1.9559 then 1.9549.

I will be watching for the Frankfurt Open price, High ,and Low - this should give indication whats ahead - oh, of course the news always has fun with us.

20 minutes to Frankfurt open.
  • #6,878
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:44am Feb 23, 2007 12:44am
Quoting QFXB
Well said MarkGavalda!!!
I think that if some of us canŽt cooperate in this thread, we shouldnŽt either try to bring it down.
I don't think there was any problem with Just1pip, maybe just a little curious to ask some questions.

I just have a way of clearing the air.

All is well, "we" are having fun, and "we" are making profits every day here on the thread.

Lets rock this baby!
  • #6,879
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:48am Feb 23, 2007 12:48am
Quoting Islander
Thank you Monarch for not only starting this excellent thread, but also for puting up with many unhelpful comments and for coming back and continuing your first rate analysis.

I see that the Asian session has had a low at 9549 - the highest probability off my 5m EW analysis was 9547. If this low holds and the up move continues, my W5 targets are 9619 / 9638.

IŽll post if I see a continuation starting, but at present its looking short term negative.
Nice, keep us up to date on your EW, I am watching 1.9547 also, this drop could be the test before Frank opens.

Thanks
  • #6,880
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:53am Feb 23, 2007 12:53am
Quoting Islander
Thank you Monarch for not only starting this excellent thread, but also for puting up with many unhelpful comments and for coming back and continuing your first rate analysis.

I see that the Asian session has had a low at 9549 - the highest probability off my 5m EW analysis was 9547. If this low holds and the up move continues, my W5 targets are 9619 / 9638.

IŽll post if I see a continuation starting, but at present its looking short term negative.
I would also add that the current prices on 5m charts relative to their 200EMAs are not supporting a continuation of the rally: GBP +4, but Euro -4 and Swiss +8 and also at its 1.2400 level
Trading Levels with WRBs
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