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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,081
  • Feb 22, 2007 5:59pm Feb 22, 2007 5:59pm
Dear Phillip,

Cable
I have your 4 hour set up running with the 200 sma line replaced with the 200sma line of the xpma indicator by the marvelous coder, codersguru. Changes in slope are color coded.

When cable was falling the 200 sma was color coded for going up which was later validated with the price bounce. I am not yet sure whether the extra information is a hinderance or a help but you may wish to play with it.

best
john
australia
  • #1,082
  • Edited 7:01pm Feb 22, 2007 6:06pm | Edited 7:01pm
hey hard1,

the kiwi kind of scares me right now

- the trendline you show and I have only recentley got its 2nd hit.
- the time it stalled out previously at the same point, it shot up quickly quite a bit... will history repeat?
- low r:r still for a short
- 100 pips below it, it did same type of motion...

just my take, take it for what it's worth... maybe not much, just have caution... i'm in on the trade too

Quoting hard1head1
I dont know if the last post was directed at me or not, however, until I started reading this post, an evening star and a bounce off of a trend line, then target the outer trend line and that was the best I could do. I am just looking for some help to get some other confirmation. I do not know this system yet, however, If you could help it would be appreciated.

"Knowledge is good" Eberhard Faber

Thanks, Jim
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,083
  • Feb 22, 2007 6:22pm Feb 22, 2007 6:22pm
Thanks Dire,
Ill pull my stop to break even. What does RR mean.

Jim
  • #1,084
  • Feb 22, 2007 6:31pm Feb 22, 2007 6:31pm
RR means your Risk/Reward ratio. Basically how much of a stop loss are you setting and what's your target price. Phillip mentions that he prefers a ratio close to 1:1 I believe, so if you Risking a 25pip loss...then you are trying to achieve at least 25pips profit or more.

Hope that helps and wasn't confusing!

Quoting hard1head1
Thanks Dire,
Ill pull my stop to break even. What does RR mean.

Jim
  • #1,085
  • Feb 22, 2007 7:00pm Feb 22, 2007 7:00pm
I just entered a trade on the USD/JPY pair.
Short at 121.48. S/L 121.73 and first TP 121. 18(will close half of position and move stoploss to breakeven and let the other half run).

Reasons for Entering:
1) MACD sell signal
2) MACD double top
3) Inverted Hammer on 4hr chart
4) Good R:R


First TP of 121.00 was chosen because it's a major level, also it's the 61.8% retracement level from the Feb. 11th High to Feb. 16th Low, and I have an old trendline that was broken to the upside that could provide support now.

If anyone has anything else to add, feel free!!!
  • #1,086
  • Feb 22, 2007 7:23pm Feb 22, 2007 7:23pm
Just close out usdchf for 18+thx phillip for your system and help along the way and thx direxiv this one of the best threads
  • #1,087
  • Edited Feb 23, 2007 9:50am Feb 22, 2007 7:59pm | Edited Feb 23, 2007 9:50am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I just entered a trade on the USD/JPY pair.
Short at 121.48. S/L 121.73 and first TP 121. 18(will close half of position and move stoploss to breakeven and let the other half run).

Reasons for Entering:
1) MACD sell signal
2) MACD double top
3) Inverted Hammer on 4hr chart
4) Good R:R


First TP of 121.00 was chosen because it's a major level, also it's the 61.8% retracement level from the Feb. 11th High to Feb. 16th Low, and I have an old trendline that was broken to the upside that could provide support now.

If anyone has anything else to add, feel free!!!
I am very much interested, Tw. I am with you on this deal. God bless us! My contribution is 2 lots - I like the hammer and all your fib analysis. What I also like about it is that the hammer wanted to go through the previous mountain and retraced. I've seen these setups many times. Let's go for it! What do we risk, anyway? My first take-profit is @ 121.06 - you might outscore but let's see. I did not put any TP for the second lot but I am hoping for 120.65. Good luck. Yours, Tamkras.
  • #1,088
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:05pm Feb 22, 2007 8:05pm
Hi everybody, im new to this thread but i just wanted to forewarn you all that we are currently in an uptrend for usdjpy and it only seems to be in wave 4. That means that there be jsut a limited drop instead of the drop that you are hoping for. best of luck.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #1,089
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:16pm Feb 22, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting mike w
Hi everybody, im new to this thread but i just wanted to forewarn you all that we are currently in an uptrend for usdjpy and it only seems to be in wave 4. That means that there be jsut a limited drop instead of the drop that you are hoping for. best of luck.
thanks, Mike. I've been unlucky so far with MACD pattern for eur/yen and this is my last time, I promise... If it does not work, I quit it. Failing 3 times is a system.
  • #1,090
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:32pm Feb 22, 2007 8:32pm
I agree with the uptrend...that's why I'm only going for a small retracement on 1 lot and the other I will set to breakeven and just see what happens for a free ride!.

Good luck to you too Tamkras!

Quoting mike w
Hi everybody, im new to this thread but i just wanted to forewarn you all that we are currently in an uptrend for usdjpy and it only seems to be in wave 4. That means that there be jsut a limited drop instead of the drop that you are hoping for. best of luck.
  • #1,091
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:39pm Feb 22, 2007 8:39pm
"I'm making this long, but I give credit to everyone on this thread posting thoughts, and helping me along. Thanks guys... let' see if we can all make this happen be confident, hold back emotions, plan, follow the plan to a "T", and all make some pips. "

Great post DireXiv, your where I want to be. It helps to hear you talk about it.
  • #1,092
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:45pm Feb 22, 2007 8:45pm
I'm not entering any trades yet...just watching this pair for now. But with the 89ma having crossed below the 200ma we are technically in a "bearish mood."

What I'm watching for to enter trade:
1) The rounded top to finish forming on 4hr MACD.
2) We had a nice "tail" form a couple candles ago with bounce off of 200ma
3) Price bounced off of a Trendline around that 200ma as well
4) Price has been between the 50% and 61.8% Fibs from Jan. 8th Low to Jan. 23rd High

Becareful trading this though because pip gain might not be that great..first tp would be 1.9530 area(8 and 21 ma's) and then 1.9500 major level & also 365MA....so R:R is questionable.

Anyone else have anything to add?

Just looking at this pair some more...might be better to skip trade because of R:R, MA's are close together and a breakout should be in the cards soon because of converging trendlines.
  • #1,093
  • Feb 22, 2007 9:32pm Feb 22, 2007 9:32pm
IBFX has data corruption. It is dangerous to trade until they fix it.
They say they will fix it after Friday closing, Feb 23, 2007.(Uh!)
  • #1,094
  • Feb 22, 2007 9:37pm Feb 22, 2007 9:37pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
I just entered a trade on the USD/JPY pair.
Short at 121.48. S/L 121.73 and first TP 121. 18(will close half of position and move stoploss to breakeven and let the other half run).

Reasons for Entering:
1) MACD sell signal
2) MACD double top
3) Inverted Hammer on 4hr chart
4) Good R:R


First TP of 121.00 was chosen because it's a major level, also it's the 61.8% retracement level from the Feb. 11th High to Feb. 16th Low, and I have an old trendline that was broken to the upside that could provide support now.

If anyone has anything else to add, feel free!!!
You have analysed your action wonderfully so that all of us can understand the rationale behind your short trade. But, for me to go and see things in my chart, my data provider (IBFX) have a corrupted database.
Thanks for your analysis.
-Chandra
  • #1,095
  • Feb 22, 2007 9:41pm Feb 22, 2007 9:41pm
Hi everyone, it's been my great pleasure to be part of this marvellous MACD adventure. I hope I was able to contribute to this great forum of talented people and helped someone with small pips. I intend to sign off for about 2 weeks and forgive me if my jokes and wild imagination sometimes were a bit off topic. Good luck to you all! Yours, Tamkras.
  • #1,096
  • Feb 22, 2007 9:44pm Feb 22, 2007 9:44pm
Have a great break Tamkras.... I'll take care of your piggybank for you...

Quoting tamkras
Hi everyone, it's been my great pleasure to be part of this marvellous MACD adventure. I hope I was able to contribute to this great forum of talented people and helped someone with small pips. I intend to sign off for about 2 weeks and forgive me if my jokes and wild imagination sometimes were a bit off topic. Good luck to you all! Yours, Tamkras.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,097
  • Feb 22, 2007 10:08pm Feb 22, 2007 10:08pm
Quoting cgldsmth
the charts look very different depending on the broker's time. eg look at IBFX and FXDD at the moment.
AHA! Chandra explained the crazy discrepency you discovered earlier today!
  • #1,098
  • Feb 22, 2007 10:27pm Feb 22, 2007 10:27pm
this is my 1st post on your thread Phillip....n thanx for sharing this great system...and for today i sell UJ GJ EJ i just hope i do this right....

sell UJ @121.50 tp 30 pips
sell GJ @237.75 tp 30 pips
sell EJ @159.53 tp 30 pips

have a good pips today guys.....
  • #1,099
  • Edited Feb 23, 2007 2:38am Feb 22, 2007 10:32pm | Edited Feb 23, 2007 2:38am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I'm not entering any trades yet...just watching this pair for now. But with the 89ma having crossed below the 200ma we are technically in a "bearish mood."

What I'm watching for to enter trade:
1) The rounded top to finish forming on 4hr MACD.
2) We had a nice "tail" form a couple candles ago with bounce off of 200ma
3) Price bounced off of a Trendline around that 200ma as well
4) Price has been between the 50% and 61.8% Fibs from Jan. 8th Low to Jan. 23rd High

Becareful trading this though because pip gain might not be that great..first tp would be 1.9530 area(8 and 21 ma's) and then 1.9500 major level & also 365MA....so R:R is questionable.

Anyone else have anything to add?

Just looking at this pair some more...might be better to skip trade because of R:R, MA's are close together and a breakout should be in the cards soon because of converging trendlines.
Nice job w/analysis. I'm watching too. Thinking breakout in cards soon. Daily price is near top of downward sloping channel and at a TL and right below 20 SMA. Put this together with the converging MA's on 4 hour & all the little tiny doji type candles. R:R not good either way right now.

Thinking price may "fake" us out w/false breakout. Maybe bounce up around recent TL at 1.9593 or 1.9620 (hope w/get reversal signal there so I can sell w/small sl). If price reverses at 1.9620, then I would target lower trendline at 1.9468 and a failure there would have me believe 1.9338 is in the cards. The reverse could be true too. Time for patience in direction!

I've attached my messy chart to show TL. Let's keep watching this baby!! Maybe we too can then afford to buy a piggy to fill like TamKras

EDIT: The chart shows GBP_USD
Attached Image
  • #1,100
  • Feb 22, 2007 10:47pm Feb 22, 2007 10:47pm
Could this signal be taken as a head and shoulders pattern?
Attached Image
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