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  • #3,961
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:42am Oct 2, 2008 8:42am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I just made a new post to the blog - looks like this area its in now could be. Im looking to get long on pullbacks here.
BRV,

You have created a brilliant blog as it covers all information required to be aware of.I don't have any word of appreciation as you are really great and helpful to your fellow traders.

Again thanks a lot for this much effort and enegy.

God bless you!

Komal.
  • #3,962
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:26am Oct 2, 2008 9:26am
Quoting tieics
I suppose you meant mini lot
Yup. But I kinda forgot to mention it, sorry. My broker doesn't have mini or standard lots - they use 10.000 units for one lot and that's it.
  • #3,963
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:43am Oct 2, 2008 9:43am
Quoting hendrix
Hi BillyRay,

could you please explain, how do you determine your position size per trade?
Hi Hendrix,
Currensys has a great calc you can use. Google it up- if I remember correctly it was on their forum.
  • #3,964
  • Oct 2, 2008 9:43am Oct 2, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Sac
Hi Hendrix,

Unless I've misunderstood something, you are always risking 2% of your account, changing the stop loss size will simply determine how many lots you need to assume that % risk, which in your example is 2%($200). If you want to decrease the risk you would decrease the % of account (at risk) to 1% or 1.5% etc., which will determine your position size.
Yes, I normally use 2% per trade, but when I'm less confident (or short-term), I'll change to 1% or even 0,5%.

But, for example, if I decide to go short EUR/USD @ 1.3855, do I put a "default" stop-loss @ 1.3895 (40 pips) and manually close the trade sooner if it goes strongly against me or do I go short @ 1.3855 and put a stop-loss @ 1.3880 (25 pips), because based on the price action, I believe it should not go further without significantly reducing chances for a comeback?

So, with a 25 pip SL I let the trade play itself out and with a 40 PIP SL, I would manually close the trade, if it went 25 pips agains me.

I'm not sure, which option from these two are you guys using. Manual closes or "automatic" closes? I'm aware, that if the trade goes 15 to 20 pips in profit, we move our order to break even.

I apologize if I'm confusing things too much but I don't know how to explain it differently.

Thanks!

EDIT: The question is, how do you control your risk exposure? By reducing the percentage risk per trade or by reducing the SL level and the percentage risk simultaneously? Because if you would reduce the SL levels only, without reducing the percentage risk, you would actually risk more (as I pointed out in the example in my previous post)
  • #3,965
  • Oct 2, 2008 2:04pm Oct 2, 2008 2:04pm
Short USD/CAD at 1.0800
  • #3,966
  • Oct 2, 2008 2:10pm Oct 2, 2008 2:10pm
short swissy at these levels with tight SL around 1.4150
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #3,967
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:01pm Oct 2, 2008 3:01pm
pretty "tight" indeed


maybe 1 and 4 got mixed up in there ?
  • #3,968
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:56pm Oct 2, 2008 7:56pm
Just bought usdjpy at 105.03. 50 fibs + historical support.
  • #3,969
  • Oct 3, 2008 2:09am Oct 3, 2008 2:09am
Quoting birdt
I feel it too, but I have had two successful trades the last couple of days using horizontal S/R, I think you just need to be more selective, go with the trend when possible and examine the momentum leading up to the level carefully. When they go through they generally blow right through them. If it runs up and stutters (implying that there is a battle between buyers and sellers at that level) then get your order ready. Simply having a level marked up on your chart does not mean you have to pull the trigger, although there is a fine line between patience and being gun shy.


I'm not suggesting this is how BRV does it, but this has been my approach and it's kept me out of trouble the last couple of days. What would be great is if BRV did post a chart of the lower time frames and talk through his thought process going into these trades, or is it simply a 'this level will hold' and set and order?
Hi Birtt, I know the thread has gotten pretty long here and its hard to inch though it but theres actually a good amount of stuff discussed on the lower timeframe issue. Mainly looking for overextension of trends and heavy, heavy support or resistance. Youre right about the price stuttering part - theres a few posts buries somewhere in here about ticks and nutty price action around these marks but I cant seem to find it now. The trades I post are really the big ones only; the intraday stuff can be a whole nother issue. If you have anything specific I'd be happy to answer.
  • #3,970
  • Oct 3, 2008 2:34am Oct 3, 2008 2:34am
BRV, you're right..... way cooler! I just don't know where you find the time, but I am damn glad that you can. Thanks for everything you do for us learners.

Would you be able to put date/time stamps on your blog entries please? [I think they appeared on the previous design and I found them useful.]
  • #3,971
  • Oct 3, 2008 2:43am Oct 3, 2008 2:43am
Quoting Grath
BRV, you're right..... way cooler! I just don't know where you find the time, but I am damn glad that you can. Thanks for everything you do for us learners.

Would you be able to put date/time stamps on your blog entries please? [I think they appeared on the previous design and I found them useful.]
I'll get on that
  • #3,972
  • Oct 3, 2008 3:03am Oct 3, 2008 3:03am
.
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  • #3,973
  • Oct 3, 2008 3:07am Oct 3, 2008 3:07am
The new Blog is AWESOME, good stuff BRV..been following the thread and the blog..am a good listener not a good talker!!!.
  • #3,974
  • Oct 3, 2008 5:55am Oct 3, 2008 5:55am
Quoting Fxtrader
The new Blog is AWESOME, good stuff BRV..been following the thread and the blog..am a good listener not a good talker!!!.
Thanks! Quiet in this thread today and quiet in the market in general ahead of all this news coming out.

Im looking to sell into any USD weakness at this point. As far as the bailout goes, I've heard the theories as to what's going to happen if it passes/doesnt pass but overall the US economy, even after any bailout, is going to have a helluva hard time recouperating.

Today is going to be interesting. SPX futures are up about 15pts right now on optimism of this thing passing. Nonfarm numbers are expected to be nothing less than horrible.
  • #3,975
  • Oct 3, 2008 5:58am Oct 3, 2008 5:58am
Quoting spekitox
BRV,

can I please ask, given that you identify some important level, how often do you decide to fade? I'm not asking for any clues regarding when to fade. I would like to watch, sweat and learn it myself.
Just a ratio please. 3 out of 4? 9 out of 10?

thankx
depends on how big it is really (the level), and what kind of nonsense is going on in the market at the time. I'll usually stay out of trades when the market is going absolutely nuts....no sense in fading a nutty drop in much of anything.....of the "big trades", maybe 7 out of 10??? Just guessing. But the intraday trades probably less than that; maybe half, or whatever I can catch.
  • #3,976
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:00am Oct 3, 2008 6:00am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sell EUR/USD 1.4158-1.4168
BRV, why do you think it will only retrace to 38.2%? If Euro is in trouble, it could flip back earlier.

At the same time, although the worst seems to be largerly over for USD, Euro doesn't have much potential for further problems either. I.e. if could move all the way to 1.4500...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #3,977
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:03am Oct 3, 2008 6:03am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
As far as the bailout goes, I've heard the theories as to what's going to happen if it passes/doesnt pass but overall the US economy, even after any bailout, is going to have a helluva hard time recouperating.
I agree - the dollar gained strength recently for no apparent reason. It should re-adjust (in theory )
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #3,978
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:12am Oct 3, 2008 6:12am
Quoting hendrix
Hi BillyRay,

could you please explain, how do you determine your position size per trade?

For example:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips (our default SL level)
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

So far so good. But what if I'd like to risk less pips for a particular trade. Let's say that the price action suggests, that the price should not move more than 25 pips from our entry, because if it does, our chances for reversal are minimal. Based on this the calculation looks like this:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 25 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 8 lots

Instead of risking less, I end up risking more.

That is why I wonder, if you always have a 40 pip SL as your default stop level and you only change your risk percentages?

If you feel confident, you risk 2% per trade and if you feel less confident, you risk only 1% per trade? The 40 pip SL is always in place, but you control your loss manually. So, if the price goes against us as far as 25 pips, you would close the trade manually.

Controlling our risk with changing the percentages only it would look like this:

Confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

Less confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 1%
Resultant position size = 2,5 lots

Is this how it is done or am I missing something?

Thanks!
Hi Hendrix,

I would actually be more likely to put a bigger size on a trade I have confidence about than on one which I am less confident about, and possibly risk a smaller amount based on lot size, not stop loss.

Its the old risk to reward scenario. I'm risking 40 pips to get 120, or whatever the case might be.

I'm typically not a fan of going bigger size on smaller trades because I've this can get you in a lot of trouble if repeated over and over again.

Better to go smaller size on something youre generally less confident about because your expected win/loss ratio, just by saying that you are less confident, is going to be leaning more to the loss side. Maybe not the best mathematical example but over time, the rate should work out where you're making better money on better trades.
  • #3,979
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:42am Oct 3, 2008 7:42am
If this is of any use to anyone then here it is .... I find it quite useful to help line up S/R levels etc.
Attached Image
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  • #3,980
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:57am Oct 3, 2008 7:57am
We had the worst NFP figures in 5 years, yet EU and GU go down and UCAD up - what am I missing here?.. If that's a "SL hunting" - isn't a 100-pip move too big for that?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
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