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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #118,761
- Oct 2, 2008 12:24pm Oct 2, 2008 12:24pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
- #118,762
- Oct 2, 2008 12:26pm Oct 2, 2008 12:26pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #118,763
- Oct 2, 2008 12:30pm Oct 2, 2008 12:30pm
- | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,236 Posts
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
- #118,764
- Oct 2, 2008 12:34pm Oct 2, 2008 12:34pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #118,765
- Oct 2, 2008 12:58pm Oct 2, 2008 12:58pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
and what levels might those be moe? and how many months/years do you forecast?
that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.
now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.
these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.
after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.
i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has
.)my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.
good luck to you and all other traders
- #118,766
- Oct 2, 2008 1:04pm Oct 2, 2008 1:04pm
- | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,236 Posts
actually. we have a confirmed daily CCI TL breach with today probably closing below the -100, in addition to that CCI has bounced from the 0 line (confirmed SUPER bearish daily pattern). and since the weekly CCI30 value is already BELOW the -100 with a FAILED attempt to even reach the -100 line, it's confirmed: daily bearish continuation of weekly bearish trend.
that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.
now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.
these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.
after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.
i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has
my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.
good luck to you and all other traders
This is very good advice for the foreseeable future.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
- #118,767
- Oct 2, 2008 1:06pm Oct 2, 2008 1:06pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
I agree with the tanking .... recession is here and has been for a while .. and the last 2 months numbers are confirming that we are in a recession ... geez who r they trying to kid
Fundies say GJ should hit 178....but that bearish div has to break n the daily ... maybe it will come in one day
I am no good at swing trading and therefore do not try it as even a 30 pip draw down makes me sweat ...lol
I respect guys like you and Karmo that hold out for the long run and trust their charts...me I would rather find something that rnages 30 pips in the morning and trade that 2 or 3 times for my 60 pips a day ,
take it this way. if you went short at (for example) 197-195, what would it hurt to close 1/3 or 1/2 of that trade and keep the rest for future targets, while still going for your daily trades? that would be extra income in addition to your daily/monthly targets
i mentioned this before on this thread. my daily target is 150 pips, and monthly target is 20-25% growth. i risk ANYTHING that goes above those targets. i don't build dreams on any income that surpasses my daily/monthly targets. it's all about the mindset you have, and how u cope with lost "potential" profit. i know u already know this, but just to add a note, this is the most profitable strategy i tried. i back tested all the possibilities, i didn't find a better way.
i can still remember when my account started at 10k of VALUABLE savings.
- #118,768
- Oct 2, 2008 1:11pm Oct 2, 2008 1:11pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Don't Loose Your Shirt | 1,146 Posts
hello folks...just a quicky...i can see geppy heading for a small retrace to the 191 level...baby
- #118,769
- Oct 2, 2008 1:12pm Oct 2, 2008 1:12pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #118,770
- Oct 2, 2008 1:13pm Oct 2, 2008 1:13pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
i'm with ya, since we're at these levels, however it might have a small effect just before reality takes over. this is TANKING for sure, and it's a matter of time before we see levels that will surprise everyone. the monthly TL you and all the other traders u were talking about will NOT hold. sorry, but the carry won't be back on for a LONG time from now.
This is reminding me of last year's tanking, that was fun
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #118,771
- Oct 2, 2008 1:16pm Oct 2, 2008 1:16pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
actually. we have a confirmed daily CCI TL breach with today probably closing below the -100, in addition to that CCI has bounced from the 0 line (confirmed SUPER bearish daily pattern). and since the weekly CCI30 value is already BELOW the -100 with a FAILED attempt to even reach the -100 line, it's confirmed: daily bearish continuation of weekly bearish trend.
that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.
now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.
these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.
after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.
i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has
my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.
good luck to you and all other traders
http://www.europeancarweb.com/featur...20s/index.html
or a plain old XKR ?
I have an XKR .... beautiful car , very refined drive .... but makes sure you renew it every 3 years .. those things go wrong you need a mortgage to fix them
I like the new XF supercharged 4.2 litre..... beautiful car to drive.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #118,772
- Oct 2, 2008 1:19pm Oct 2, 2008 1:19pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
if it doesn't hold, I'll stay on the bear train so no worries
This is reminding me of last year's tanking, that was fun
answer: the secret is TANKING
and boy does GJ KNOW how to tank 
- #118,775
- Oct 2, 2008 1:32pm Oct 2, 2008 1:32pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
I see it too & I don't see the divergences others are talking about so I'm staying short .. however I am also on a patience pill drip.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #118,776
- Oct 2, 2008 1:33pm Oct 2, 2008 1:33pm
- | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Pakute Trader | 885 Posts
my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.
I don't understand the above ... this part:
and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up).
what adds up to be more than initial balance? If you are only at 2-4% how are you going short with all your equity? Could you elaborate a bit more?
- #118,777
- Oct 2, 2008 1:37pm Oct 2, 2008 1:37pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
were you thinking one of these ?
http://www.europeancarweb.com/featur...20s/index.html
or a plain old XKR ?
I have an XKR .... beautiful car , very refined drive .... but makes sure you renew it every 3 years .. those things go wrong you need a mortgage to fix them
I like the new XF supercharged 4.2 litre..... beautiful car to drive.
the XKR of course
don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
- #118,778
- Oct 2, 2008 1:40pm Oct 2, 2008 1:40pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,079 Posts
the XKR of course
don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
- #118,779
- Oct 2, 2008 1:47pm Oct 2, 2008 1:47pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
Excellent analysis, thanks lilmoe
I don't understand the above ... this part:
and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up).
what adds up to be more than initial balance? If you are only at 2-4% how are you going short with all your equity? Could you elaborate a bit more?
if u have a 10K account, you can start with .5 lots at 197 (that's 5% of your initial balance/equity). you get a gann flip on the m30 chart, but u don't close that deal. when m30 gann flips back down you ADD more shorts.
at this point, let's say you are 300 pips of profit. you add another .5 lots this makes (10% of your initial 10K).
price drops 900 pips to 187, you unload 0.5 lots. let's say your account at that point is 15K, at 190 you add more shorts, let's say 1 lot. and today you add more let's say 2 lots. your stop loss for each of those trades initially starts with a 2-4% loss SL. as we go down you keep on shorting all the rallies while loading and unloading your shorts and keeping the ones above with big profit SLs.
you will reach a point where the total of your open positions are almost 10K = 10 lots. that's just like you went short with all your equity at 197. at that point 110 pips would nearly double your initial balance.
hope that helps!!
- #118,780
- Oct 2, 2008 1:47pm Oct 2, 2008 1:47pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
the XKR of course
don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
Trade what you see, not what you think.