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  • #118,761
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:24am Oct 2, 2008 10:24am
Quoting TexasforEX
So you will have open shorts during the US House of Reps vote?
I think so as he does not care about one of the major news annoucements / decisions of this decade
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #118,762
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:26am Oct 2, 2008 10:26am
Quoting karmostaji
this bailout is not going to help anything IMO, things are going to get worse

It's just my own opinion.

i'm with ya, since we're at these levels, however it might have a small effect just before reality takes over. this is TANKING for sure, and it's a matter of time before we see levels that will surprise everyone. the monthly TL you and all the other traders u were talking about will NOT hold. sorry, but the carry won't be back on for a LONG time from now.
  • #118,763
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:30am Oct 2, 2008 10:30am
Quoting lilmoe
i'm with ya, since we're at these levels, however it might have a small effect just before reality takes over. this is TANKING for sure, and it's a matter of time before we see levels that will surprise everyone. the monthly TL you and all the other traders u were talking about will NOT hold. sorry, but the carry won't be back on for a LONG time from now.

and what levels might those be moe? and how many months/years do you forecast?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #118,764
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:34am Oct 2, 2008 10:34am
Quoting lilmoe
i'm with ya, since we're at these levels, however it might have a small effect just before reality takes over. this is TANKING for sure, and it's a matter of time before we see levels that will surprise everyone. the monthly TL you and all the other traders u were talking about will NOT hold. sorry, but the carry won't be back on for a LONG time from now.
I agree with the tanking .... recession is here and has been for a while .. and the last 2 months numbers are confirming that we are in a recession ... geez who r they trying to kid

Fundies say GJ should hit 178....but that bearish div has to break n the daily ... maybe it will come in one day

I am no good at swing trading and therefore do not try it as even a 30 pip draw down makes me sweat ...lol

I respect guys like you and Karmo that hold out for the long run and trust their charts...me I would rather find something that rnages 30 pips in the morning and trade that 2 or 3 times for my 60 pips a day ,
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #118,765
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:58am Oct 2, 2008 10:58am
Quoting TexasforEX
and what levels might those be moe? and how many months/years do you forecast?
actually. we have a confirmed daily CCI TL breach with today probably closing below the -100, in addition to that CCI has bounced from the 0 line (confirmed SUPER bearish daily pattern). and since the weekly CCI30 value is already BELOW the -100 with a FAILED attempt to even reach the -100 line, it's confirmed: daily bearish continuation of weekly bearish trend.

that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.

now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.

these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.

after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.

i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has .)

my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.

good luck to you and all other traders
  • #118,766
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:04am Oct 2, 2008 11:04am
Quoting lilmoe
actually. we have a confirmed daily CCI TL breach with today probably closing below the -100, in addition to that CCI has bounced from the 0 line (confirmed SUPER bearish daily pattern). and since the weekly CCI30 value is already BELOW the -100 with a FAILED attempt to even reach the -100 line, it's confirmed: daily bearish continuation of weekly bearish trend.

that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.

now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.

these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.

after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.

i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has .)

my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.

good luck to you and all other traders
thanks much for a detailed analysis...

This is very good advice for the foreseeable future.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #118,767
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:06am Oct 2, 2008 11:06am
Quoting malcolmb14
I agree with the tanking .... recession is here and has been for a while .. and the last 2 months numbers are confirming that we are in a recession ... geez who r they trying to kid

Fundies say GJ should hit 178....but that bearish div has to break n the daily ... maybe it will come in one day

I am no good at swing trading and therefore do not try it as even a 30 pip draw down makes me sweat ...lol

I respect guys like you and Karmo that hold out for the long run and trust their charts...me I would rather find something that rnages 30 pips in the morning and trade that 2 or 3 times for my 60 pips a day ,
thanks bro, but there are times when a RARE setup plays in. it wouldn't hurt if u place an order (2-5% of your account) with a longer term target while keeping up with your own strategy. that's what i do. i might go short (longer term) while going both long and short for scalp/intraday trades. after a couple of years of experience that's the best thing to do.

take it this way. if you went short at (for example) 197-195, what would it hurt to close 1/3 or 1/2 of that trade and keep the rest for future targets, while still going for your daily trades? that would be extra income in addition to your daily/monthly targets

i mentioned this before on this thread. my daily target is 150 pips, and monthly target is 20-25% growth. i risk ANYTHING that goes above those targets. i don't build dreams on any income that surpasses my daily/monthly targets. it's all about the mindset you have, and how u cope with lost "potential" profit. i know u already know this, but just to add a note, this is the most profitable strategy i tried. i back tested all the possibilities, i didn't find a better way.

i can still remember when my account started at 10k of VALUABLE savings.
  • #118,768
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:11am Oct 2, 2008 11:11am
hello folks...just a quicky...i can see geppy heading for a small retrace to the 191 level...baby
  • #118,769
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:12am Oct 2, 2008 11:12am
Quoting TexasforEX
So you will have open shorts during the US House of Reps vote?
yes with stops locking in profits in place
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #118,770
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:13am Oct 2, 2008 11:13am
Quoting lilmoe
i'm with ya, since we're at these levels, however it might have a small effect just before reality takes over. this is TANKING for sure, and it's a matter of time before we see levels that will surprise everyone. the monthly TL you and all the other traders u were talking about will NOT hold. sorry, but the carry won't be back on for a LONG time from now.
if it doesn't hold, I'll stay on the bear train so no worries

This is reminding me of last year's tanking, that was fun
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #118,771
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:16am Oct 2, 2008 11:16am
Quoting lilmoe
actually. we have a confirmed daily CCI TL breach with today probably closing below the -100, in addition to that CCI has bounced from the 0 line (confirmed SUPER bearish daily pattern). and since the weekly CCI30 value is already BELOW the -100 with a FAILED attempt to even reach the -100 line, it's confirmed: daily bearish continuation of weekly bearish trend.

that's as far as for the basics for spotting the mid-term trend. up until we were at 192 since march, we had a slight chance of the MONTHLY trend to reverse back and take it's longer term bullish direction. however, if you take a small look at CCI30 values on the monthly chart, it's ALSO confirmed. we have CONFIRMATION of MAJOR and LONG term bearish trend. it will NOT end unless monthly CCI 30 breaks back above the 100 line and STAYS up there.

now after saying all this, there IS a small chance for the monthly TL to HOLD. and the reason for this is simple: monthly CCI30 has a possible bullish HD because the reading of CCI is a bit lower than that of september of 2000's reading.

these are the possibilites on the table. i can predict price going below that TL for sure on weekly basis (reaching 169-170), but it all depends on a monthly candle (or a couple) closing below that TL.

after today. the only way to go (IMO) is selling rallies with karmo. don't worry, even if we do go up more from the level u're selling at, price will most likely retest that level if not go below it leaving u in profit.

i still have 1 last short open from 213.80, and i'm willing to make that winning ace (that would probably make me give a karmo a lambo present loool, but i want a jaguar, not a lousy lambo, donno what kind if taste karmo has .)

my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.

good luck to you and all other traders
were you thinking one of these ?

http://www.europeancarweb.com/featur...20s/index.html

or a plain old XKR ?

I have an XKR .... beautiful car , very refined drive .... but makes sure you renew it every 3 years .. those things go wrong you need a mortgage to fix them

I like the new XF supercharged 4.2 litre..... beautiful car to drive.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #118,772
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:19am Oct 2, 2008 11:19am
Quoting karmostaji
if it doesn't hold, I'll stay on the bear train so no worries

This is reminding me of last year's tanking, that was fun
here's a riddle: how can you make an ugly beast become extremely sexy?

answer: the secret is TANKING and boy does GJ KNOW how to tank
  • #118,773
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:24am Oct 2, 2008 11:24am
Quoting karmostaji
if it doesn't hold, I'll stay on the bear train so no worries

This is reminding me of last year's tanking, that was fun
I am still thinking Bearish as well... Remember we have NFP (non farm payroll)
tomorrow.... Will close everything before that annoucement.
  • #118,774
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:27am Oct 2, 2008 11:27am
Quoting karmostaji
I won't, I'll just trade my chart and what 'I' see on it

I see it too & I don't see the divergences others are talking about so I'm staying short .. however I am also on a patience pill drip.
  • #118,775
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:32am Oct 2, 2008 11:32am
Quoting TraderStar
I see it too & I don't see the divergences others are talking about so I'm staying short .. however I am also on a patience pill drip.
here is the bullish div i see on 4 hour , not saying this will play out or not as I have no clue and the overall chart is very bearish ... but it is osmething to be aware of

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 19 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #118,776
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:33am Oct 2, 2008 11:33am
Quoting lilmoe
my strategy for now is as follows (same since we were above 210):
selling rallies and adding more shorts as we go down, leaving the ones above with a profitable SL, and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up). you have no idea how many folds you can grow your account. but stay cautious and FLEXABLE. don't let this post or any other blindfold your bias.
Excellent analysis, thanks lilmoe

I don't understand the above ... this part:
and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up).
what adds up to be more than initial balance? If you are only at 2-4% how are you going short with all your equity? Could you elaborate a bit more?
  • #118,777
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:37am Oct 2, 2008 11:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
were you thinking one of these ?

http://www.europeancarweb.com/featur...20s/index.html

or a plain old XKR ?

I have an XKR .... beautiful car , very refined drive .... but makes sure you renew it every 3 years .. those things go wrong you need a mortgage to fix them

I like the new XF supercharged 4.2 litre..... beautiful car to drive.

the XKR of course

don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
  • #118,778
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:40am Oct 2, 2008 11:40am
Quoting lilmoe
the XKR of course

don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
hahahaha!! betdalak men al ordon!
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #118,779
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:47am Oct 2, 2008 11:47am
Quoting TraderStar
Excellent analysis, thanks lilmoe

I don't understand the above ... this part:
and maintaining 2-4% MM. it could add up to be MORE than your initial balance since you shorted (so it's just like going short with all your equity (thats actually what i did back up).
what adds up to be more than initial balance? If you are only at 2-4% how are you going short with all your equity? Could you elaborate a bit more?

if u have a 10K account, you can start with .5 lots at 197 (that's 5% of your initial balance/equity). you get a gann flip on the m30 chart, but u don't close that deal. when m30 gann flips back down you ADD more shorts.

at this point, let's say you are 300 pips of profit. you add another .5 lots this makes (10% of your initial 10K).

price drops 900 pips to 187, you unload 0.5 lots. let's say your account at that point is 15K, at 190 you add more shorts, let's say 1 lot. and today you add more let's say 2 lots. your stop loss for each of those trades initially starts with a 2-4% loss SL. as we go down you keep on shorting all the rallies while loading and unloading your shorts and keeping the ones above with big profit SLs.

you will reach a point where the total of your open positions are almost 10K = 10 lots. that's just like you went short with all your equity at 197. at that point 110 pips would nearly double your initial balance.

hope that helps!!
  • #118,780
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:47am Oct 2, 2008 11:47am
Quoting lilmoe
the XKR of course

don't worry bro, i'll take care of that car more than i would with my wife
I hope your wife doesn't find this post lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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