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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,041
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:20am Feb 22, 2007 11:20am
thanks Phillip. I'm going to spend the weekend re-reading your PDFs. thanks for sharing your method.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #1,042
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:25am Feb 22, 2007 11:25am
Rumors of terror threat/elevation affecting usd as well a rumor of police activity in lower Manhattan, but supposedly they are unfounded rumors....

Quoting Tw0eleven
Is there some secret news data I missed that caused the GBP/USD to go up about a 100pips in the past two hours?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,043
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:29am Feb 22, 2007 11:29am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The chart is a bit small to see the detail nice but I had a look through it and if you follow the methodology outlined in the thread you will end up positive. The last trade signal was given on that huge downbar and I will never as outlined in the thread risk a stoploss more than 48 pips. The top of that bar was to much to take the trade.
Your MACD showed a long signal the previous bar with first target the 21EMA. If your R:R ratio was 1:1 you could take it on. My chart did not showed a signal yet. There you could have made pips while I was waiting.
The rest of the chart shows normal MACD movement that if followed with good R:R ratio in order you would have ended positive.

perhaps theese will help. 2 different tipes of charts ( from 2 different brokers)
copy them into history directory. open offline
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip eurusd.zip   66 KB | 784 downloads
  • #1,044
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:30am Feb 22, 2007 11:30am
Quoting cgldsmth
would you short USDJPY now? MACD turning down from just below 0.45 level.
Possible double top busy to form. Stil hour and a half to go.

I dont know whether you have worked through the whole thread. The price is above the 89SMA which is bullish, so if you go short it will only be to the 21EMA and at this stage I still have an hour and a half left before the candle close and only then will I enter if the R:R os OK. I dont trade UsdJpy

I however dont trade other currencies except the EurUsd and the GbpUsd as I havent tested the strategy on other pairs.

Have you worked through all the PDF documents on this thread.
Good luck
Attached Image
  • #1,045
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:39am Feb 22, 2007 11:39am
Quoting cgldsmth
would you short USDJPY now? MACD turning down from just below 0.45 level.
Hello,
USDJPY- at 17:27 GMT.
I do not see any signal yet, then why do you think of a trade? Your observation of 0.45 level is very good but for me, it seems not enough reason to jump in.

At GMT 17:27, I still wait for 16:00 - 20:00 bar to complete in USDJPY to confirm an aggressive turn around signal. With 89MA below 200 MA, there is good chance of price going down but not yet confirmed. This is my view.
-Chandra
PS:
(When anyone try to post a possible trade for the benefit of the group, please detail the rationale / logic behind your decision and also name the signal you are talking about. It helps others like mehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif).
  • #1,046
  • Edited 12:10pm Feb 22, 2007 11:41am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting cgldsmth
thanks Phillip. I'm going to spend the weekend re-reading your PDFs. thanks for sharing your method.
I noticed a writing underneath your name. Losing nearly every trade. I can write a book about the power of words. I might overstep my boundaries now but how about changing it to winning about every trade and see what happens to your trading. Self fulfilling profecy. Sorry if I intruded.

Update:

Sorry. I did not have the right to do this. It is still your choice. Forgive me. Just make me sad. God bless
  • #1,047
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:51am Feb 22, 2007 11:51am
Quoting cgldsmth
short USDJPY, TP1 2080. Probably a little early.
17:48 GMT. - USDJPY going short.

Will you please tell, for the benefit of group members, what was your thinking while you wanted to short USDJPY, what was your entry price and TP? Jus trying to understand specifics behind your decisions. It helps us all.
Thanks.
-Chandra.
  • #1,048
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:55am Feb 22, 2007 11:55am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I noticed a writing underneath your name. Losing nearly every trade. I can write a book about the power of words. I might overstep my boundaries now but how about changing it to winning about every trade and see what happens to your trading. Self fulfilling profecy. Sorry if I intruded.
I'm liking all your advise Phillip!
  • #1,049
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:16pm Feb 22, 2007 12:16pm
I have been following this thread from the start and I just wanted to say thankyou Phillip for the time you have put into sharing your system. The mp3's are great and really help alot I hope you continue to post them

I am understanding the system more and more, I hope that one day i will have a feel for the market like you.

Right now I am waiting to see if this is a pull back to the 21ema on the EURUSD if the risk-reward is ok i will take the trade but i might not be for a while.

Anyway thanks again

Dean
  • #1,050
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:25pm Feb 22, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting Digitaldean
I have been following this thread from the start and I just wanted to say thankyou Phillip for the time you have put into sharing your system. The mp3's are great and really help alot I hope you continue to post them
I have clicked on the "paperclip" icon in the heading of this thread, but with all the attachments there, I still cannot locate ones for the MP3 files. Can you point me in the correct direction? Thanks
  • #1,051
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:33pm Feb 22, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting Digitaldean
I have been following this thread from the start and I just wanted to say thankyou Phillip for the time you have put into sharing your system. The mp3's are great and really help alot I hope you continue to post them

I am understanding the system more and more, I hope that one day i will have a feel for the market like you.

Right now I am waiting to see if this is a pull back to the 21ema on the EURUSD if the risk-reward is ok i will take the trade but i might not be for a while.

Anyway thanks again

Dean
Eur
That is what I am waiting for myself.

Gbp
It is still in lions country. If you havent got the guns then stay out.
  • #1,052
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:40pm Feb 22, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting baddison
I have clicked on the "paperclip" icon in the heading of this thread, but with all the attachments there, I still cannot locate ones for the MP3 files. Can you point me in the correct direction? Thanks
It is the ZIP files. You will have to go to the post as well to see the chart the Mp3 is refering to.

You will make it.
  • #1,053
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:47pm Feb 22, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting DireXiv
Rumors of terror threat/elevation affecting usd as well a rumor of police activity in lower Manhattan, but supposedly they are unfounded rumors....
Thanks Dire for the update. I knew something had to send it skyrocketting! Also, I sent you a PM if you get a chance. Would like to hear your thoughts.
  • #1,054
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:12pm Feb 22, 2007 1:12pm
Hi all, despite my bearish outlook on dollar's major counterparts - cable and euro I only traded euro last night. I thought euro was an excellent setup and Phillip confirmed it. I did not, however, use 2 lots or more in case the downtrend would continue. I used only 1 which was completed. Euro quickly retraced today to where it was last night stopping out some traders. There is a concept of 'fair value' and I believe I responded to someone via PM about the euro level of 1.3135 being the fair value for the last week. Currency has to go through consolidation until it finds another equillibrium. Market has decided that 1.3125-1.3145 level is fair enough and the price used to gravitate to this level ALL the time. You could see spike as high as 1.3190? and then down to 1.3080 and you could simply play those swing actions. However, we are here to follow the MACD strategy and I played only once. I am glad it also aligned well with Phillip's recommendation. I do not feel, as you may, there is a euro breakdown to the downside yet technically speaking.

Regarding cable's uplift there is a possible market emotion and I've read it here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...168027780.html
  • #1,055
  • Edited 1:29pm Feb 22, 2007 1:14pm | Edited 1:29pm
Some updating

The next bar or two might show a turnaround from the 21EMA. Just be aware of the trendline support it came from to work out R:R ratio. I just have a feeling that if it is going to come down it is going to ignore the trendline and go to the 89SMA
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EurUsd.zip   572 KB | 1,475 downloads
  • #1,056
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:29pm Feb 22, 2007 1:29pm
I still have my short position in the EUR.
  • #1,057
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:32pm Feb 22, 2007 1:32pm
I dont know whether you have worked through the whole thread. The price is above the 89SMA which is bullish, so if you go short it will only be to the 21EMA and at this stage I still have an hour and a half left before the candle close and only then will I enter if the R:R os OK. I dont trade UsdJpy

I however dont trade other currencies except the EurUsd and the GbpUsd as I havent tested the strategy on other pairs.

Have you worked through all the PDF documents on this thread.
Good luck[/quote]

Hi Phillip

I am trying to work through all the 71 "pages" of this thread - in order to find all the relevant pdf files.

DO you have all the pdf documents readily available
(?website)?

I am totally new to forex factory but very impress with your system so far. Today my first two demo trades on EUR$ , +40pips and +20pips. Just take a bit of practice to recognise the patterns developing.

Tx

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,058
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:42pm Feb 22, 2007 1:42pm
Thanks for the link Tamkras..definitely could be the influence on the sudden rise of the GBP the past few hours.


Quoting tamkras
Hi all, despite my bearish outlook on dollar's major counterparts - cable and euro I only traded euro last night. I thought euro was an excellent setup and Phillip confirmed it. I did not, however, use 2 lots or more in case the downtrend would continue. I used only 1 which was completed. Euro quickly retraced today to where it was last night stopping out some traders. There is a concept of 'fair value' and I believe I responded to someone via PM about the euro level of 1.3135 being the fair value for the last week. Currency has to go through consolidation until it finds another equillibrium. Market has decided that 1.3125-1.3145 level is fair enough and the price used to gravitate to this level ALL the time. You could see spike as high as 1.3190? and then down to 1.3080 and you could simply play those swing actions. However, we are here to follow the MACD strategy and I played only once. I am glad it also aligned well with Phillip's recommendation. I do not feel, as you may, there is a euro breakdown to the downside yet technically speaking.

Regarding cable's uplift there is a possible market emotion and I've read it here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...168027780.html
  • #1,059
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:44pm Feb 22, 2007 1:44pm
Hey Phil,

If the EURO does come down from the bounce off the trend line, what kind of signal would be looking for with your system.
?

Jim
  • #1,060
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:45pm Feb 22, 2007 1:45pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
It is the ZIP files. You will have to go to the post as well to see the chart the Mp3 is refering to.

You will make it.
THanks.
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