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  • #6,141
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:24am Oct 1, 2008 7:24am
Quoting TheLegace
My Short on EU is up 66 pips, I hope it goes more. And I am waiting for market to close below the retracement levels, but due to the fact of the news announcement coming out, I will just wait and see what happens.

Cheers.
TheLegace.
I got this one too but I closed it with +40 I couldnt watch the market anymore!
  • #6,142
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:49am Oct 1, 2008 7:49am
Quoting psneto
I got this one too but I closed it with +40 I couldnt watch the market anymore!
I closed at 104 pips, a great trade, feels great that its a live trade. I got a bit greedy and didn't close at my TP, hoping it would make it to T1 levels or something, it probably will, but I am not going to watch because of news announcement and just basic paranoia. My TP would have made 130 pips, but it's all good, I am just a begginner trader, and I think I am doing pretty damn well. Pretty happy with things. Just made a dollar(1cent per pip), but that dollar is sweet. Anyway, I am just waiting for news announcement, will trade GU and EU on that, and probably be done for the days.

Cheers.
TheLegace.
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,143
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:55am Oct 1, 2008 7:55am
Bo, you can call it luck or timimg, but the other day 9/29 at 22:00 I got in on the GPDUSD with sell stop at 1.8027 and on 9/30 15:00 got out at 1.7782 with 245 pips. just one problem in my hurry to do the tried didn't put stop loss when I made the order. which I do before I go to work. So, by the time I looked at the trade and closed it out after work I realized I was lucky the market didn't turn against me while I was at work and wiped me out. I'm sure next time I won't be so lucky to fly without a net. Sometimes mircles happen to those who are patient. I certainly learned a valuable lesson to at least 1) not get in a hurry placing a trade and 2 ) check the trade periodically if possible.
  • #6,144
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:25am Oct 1, 2008 8:25am
1hr analysis - 5min entry works great.
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  • #6,145
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:54am Oct 1, 2008 8:54am
Bo, this is screenshot of what I did the other day based on support fib and the intraday fib. I started to try to simplify things by not cluttering the screen with too many fibs. I stopped using any indicators and just looked at support and resistance. Was this just a lucky guess or am I on the right track? I based my decision also on the direction of all the higher levels from 4hr to monthly, which I mentioned in a previous post. It just seemed logical to me at the time which way the price was heading.
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  • #6,146
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:07am Oct 1, 2008 9:07am
Bo, also what value do you put on news these days?. I listen to the overall big picture, price of oil, gold, this credit bailout thing, ect., but take it with a grain of salt so to speak. I never have seriously thought of trading off of news and probably never will, but was wondering what your thoughts on the subject are? Thanks.
  • #6,147
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:43am Oct 1, 2008 9:43am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, this is screenshot of what I did the other day based on support fib and the intraday fib. I started to try to simplify things by not cluttering the screen with too many fibs. I stopped using any indicators and just looked at support and resistance. Was this just a lucky guess or am I on the right track? I based my decision also on the direction of all the higher levels from 4hr to monthly, which I mentioned in a previous post. It just seemed logical to me at the time which way the price was heading.
Your on the right track. The thing I see with your post is that when you take an entry that early without the levels being tested you stand the chance of suffering the drawdown if it had retraced to the inner levels and most traders cant look at that much drawdown without closing their trade even though theve got the direction correct.
Another thing is dont stretch your extentions out so far, it will base your targeting from to small of a base move where your high and low point of the fib tool is. You can stick with just a 138,150 and 162 extentions at both ends if you like, the reasoning is if it breaks or blows through those levels its a breakout viewed from a larger timeframe at that point anyway...just zoom out and look to the higher timeframe levels at that point. The other part to the reasoning is that we only want our extentions out as far as the 138/161 because of the times price does not reach the 138 is a signal I use to tell momentum has been lost or is dwindling and a possible reversal can happen.
Back to taking an early entry like that is very similar in taking the break of a high when there hasnt been any retracement into your intraday levels, alot of times this just means that the movement has extended into the next trading day and after is makes a slightly higher high then it retraces and catches you long at the top of the move and retracment going against you.The problem is if the market does reverse..and weve seen alot of this lately and you get trapped long at the top of a range or long from a point the market has reversed.The reverse would be true if the pair were trending down and taking the break of a low.
The positive side is if the movement is strong and it continues through the next trading day your in at a middle point in the movement and in the correct direction.
Your doing a nice job though in making it into what works for you and if you can consistantly be profitable no matter how many wins or losses there are by the end of the week, thats all that matters...nothing else not even what I say or anyone else, its about growing your balance.

  • #6,148
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:51am Oct 1, 2008 9:51am
Bo, so its safer to take the bounces off the inner levels of retracement up or down. I guess I just caught a continuing uptrend, correct?
  • #6,149
  • Edited 10:03am Oct 1, 2008 9:52am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, also what value do you put on news these days?. I listen to the overall big picture, price of oil, gold, this credit bailout thing, ect., but take it with a grain of salt so to speak. I never have seriously thought of trading off of news and probably never will, but was wondering what your thoughts on the subject are? Thanks.
The thing about the news is this, you have to ask yourself is the information from each event enough to change the markets sentiment into the pair your trading, if its not and the news is counter to the direction a pair is trending then its just usually a spike providing an opportunity to get back into the trending movement at a better price. Bad news does not always change the overall sentiment
Support and Resistance levels either hold or they dont it all boils down to that statement.
Following the other markets that have a direct tie to the dollar help to detirmine the overall strength of the dollar compared to the rest of the majors. the same money is just moving around from one to another when the dollar is weak commodities and against the other majors the wealth is being transferred to them, when the dollar is strong the wealth is being transferred into dollars...follow the money! It has to go somewhere and it doesnt like being in a market or item that is loosing value.
  • #6,150
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:52am Oct 1, 2008 9:52am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, so its safer to take the bounces off the inner levels of retracement up or down. I guess I just caught a continuing uptrend, correct?

Right
  • #6,151
  • Oct 1, 2008 9:55am Oct 1, 2008 9:55am
Great job trading today everyone, its good to see everyone making good trades.
  • #6,152
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:09am Oct 1, 2008 10:09am
Bo, This would be the better and safer call. right
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  • #6,153
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:14am Oct 1, 2008 10:14am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, This would be the better and safer call. right
Yes, even though thats not a good entry candle since is so long but yes, in an uptrend you "buy the dips" that bounce from the inner levels from the previous day.
  • #6,154
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:19am Oct 1, 2008 10:19am
Bo, do you mean the candle has too much wick and not enough body for entry? Would this mean its harder to enter and you might have to chase the price or get in at too high a price?
  • #6,155
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:30am Oct 1, 2008 10:30am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, do you mean the candle has too much wick and not enough body for entry? Would this mean its harder to enter and you might have to chase the price or get in at too high a price?
More of in the sense its so long if you had to wait for the high of that candle to break you wouldnt be in at any better of a price than if you had entered early.
It would have taken a high risk entry "Limit order" set on the levels themselves to get in at an optimum price.
Its a good example of a long candle off the levels, the problem with those are it takes some of the profit potential away.
  • #6,156
  • Oct 1, 2008 6:35pm Oct 1, 2008 6:35pm
Question for you Bo, on eu 1hr.

There were 2 nice short trades there today.
1 was from the rejection of yesterdays intraday short level marked 1 (this is the banker trade), and another was just a few hours ago marked 2 (dodgy-ish trade).

Now i caught the first but not the second.

1- Would you consider taking something that late in the day?
1a - I would probably have entered at the 7pm GMT candle (My charts are GMT+2) Woudl you have gone for this or was it too late/early?

The swing fib in my chart is essentially going to be the intraday fib for tomorrow.

2 - At what stage do you say, ok, the move has been made for the day, lets move the intraday?
I suppose it doesnt really matter, you could just take the trade short at position marked 2, off the swing fib

Looking ahead to tomorrow and chart number 2.
3 - First off are my fibs ok?

The pivot of this has already been tested and rejected
3a - Do you ever consider a fib move 'used', if its levels were tested but then its targets werent hit.
3b - If the targets werent hit and levels retested and looked to be holding, i assume you just go enter again, and hope this time levels will be hit?

Im looking at an entry if price gets back to 1.4080 as the dotted line

Now, what follows it just my thinking using logic from james16.

There isnt too much in the way of SR stopping it from getting to the daily Pin Bar low on 11th Sept now, and there is significant resistance above price at the 1.4050 to 1.4080 region, so i reckon we might stay short for another week or more yet.
Then id be watching for a slow down & some ranging days, and either a break up or down.


Thanks again
John
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  • #6,157
  • Oct 1, 2008 6:51pm Oct 1, 2008 6:51pm
gu was a bit of a mess the last few days. A big move down on thursday, was nice.

Friday was great. 2 simple short trades off the intraday levels

Monday for me was untradeable. There was no intraday fibs to base it on, and no retrace until late in the day marked 3 and 4. Too late probably.

Tuesday was a decent day, but i just dont know if id have traded as the moves 5 and 6 were again late in the day

Today was again a disaster of a day as intraday levels werent tested. I have to see a wick or something come in to levels before i get interested and they were just oo low as marked 7 and 8.

Tomorrow already looks like a messy day as indicated by the red down arrow. Price has already gotten above the levels, and now gone below indicating a possible horrible rangey day. Stop would have to go above the red arrow i think to be safe enough.

We'll see.
I hope my chart isnt too cluttered. Im just moving the intraday over a week on one chart...

Comments welcome
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  • #6,158
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:19pm Oct 1, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting jicjoc
Question for you Bo, on eu 1hr.

There were 2 nice short trades there today.
1 was from the rejection of yesterdays intraday short level marked 1 (this is the banker trade), and another was just a few hours ago marked 2 (dodgy-ish trade).

Now i caught the first but not the second.

1- Would you consider taking something that late in the day?
1a - I would probably have entered at the 7pm GMT candle (My charts are GMT+2) Woudl you have gone for this or was it too late/early?

The swing fib in my chart is essentially going to be the intraday fib for tomorrow.

2 - At what stage do you say, ok, the move has been made for the day, lets move the intraday?
I suppose it doesnt really matter, you could just take the trade short at position marked 2, off the swing fib

Looking ahead to tomorrow and chart number 2.
3 - First off are my fibs ok?

The pivot of this has already been tested and rejected
3a - Do you ever consider a fib move 'used', if its levels were tested but then its targets werent hit.
3b - If the targets werent hit and levels retested and looked to be holding, i assume you just go enter again, and hope this time levels will be hit?

Im looking at an entry if price gets back to 1.4080 as the dotted line

Now, what follows it just my thinking using logic from james16.

There isnt too much in the way of SR stopping it from getting to the daily Pin Bar low on 11th Sept now, and there is significant resistance above price at the 1.4050 to 1.4080 region, so i reckon we might stay short for another week or more yet.
Then id be watching for a slow down & some ranging days, and either a break up or down.


Thanks again
John
Yes, there are circumstances as to why though, normally no I would not enter this late. The conditions are or were set waiting for any news from the approval of the bailout plan, there is a lot riding on this in the terms of the medium term trending that we may see once all this has all come to light, everything is heavily fundamamental dependant right now since the results of this can set the tone to the strength in the dollar, signs the US is repairing its economic problems are considerable. This is why an entry this late would be justified any other time normally no.
The reasons you would want to move it on up to the next day is if its target range is met. There are times and weve seen it here lately where we have a big move then several days of ranging where an Intraday's levels are respected for several days, it doesnt necessarily mean youll have to leave them there you still want to get a heads up, if you will,to each days movement with your Intraday. Just dont forget where the market is respecting those levels from the larger move...most ot the time it will become a higher timeframe fib when that happens and you can just continue with the Intraday on a daily basis or simply follow each day from there untill it breaks from ranging with your Swing.
Something to note is when were looking at the 1 hour timeframe we are only using it to trade the higher timeframes since its the levels from the Weekly/Daily and even 4 hour that are the most important, they are what the market is moving to since they are the most likely places big money will be sitting...the market is just moving to those larger money orders we are just trying to get the heads up on this by trading it from the 1 hour to squeeze that little extra out of the market since we are at a disadvantage by not knowing where the big money orders are.
Yes we do want to know when the extentions are not hit and the reason we do not use any custom numbers in our extentions like the 127 which is very popular. The reasoning there is when the 138 extention is not reached is a signal of ours to signal loss of momentum and a possible reversal signal in the same sence if we see more than a 61.8 retrace on a days movement.
Yes when you see it begin to trade higher you simply let the market take you out or exit it manually then take it again once you see the retest....occurs very frequently during ranging periods.
Thats right when there are gaps in between all these major levels you will most likely see price try cover those distances....large orders may be sitting there! You cant go wrong from James16 I dont think Ive ever seen anything I could disagree with over there. Yep we wont be going back long until we see support holding from the Daily timeframe,which means pretty good resistance levels would have to be broken first.
  • #6,159
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:42pm Oct 1, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting jicjoc
gu was a bit of a mess the last few days. A big move down on thursday, was nice.

Friday was great. 2 simple short trades off the intraday levels

Monday for me was untradeable. There was no intraday fibs to base it on, and no retrace until late in the day marked 3 and 4. Too late probably.

Tuesday was a decent day, but i just dont know if id have traded as the moves 5 and 6 were again late in the day

Today was again a disaster of a day as intraday levels werent tested. I have to see a wick or something come in to levels before i get interested and they were just oo low as marked 7 and 8.

Tomorrow already looks like a messy day as indicated by the red down arrow. Price has already gotten above the levels, and now gone below indicating a possible horrible rangey day. Stop would have to go above the red arrow i think to be safe enough.

We'll see.
I hope my chart isnt too cluttered. Im just moving the intraday over a week on one chart...

Comments welcome
Your logic is great, what were experiencing is a shift in the conditions, where earlier this year we were getting most of the better movement from the London session where here lately its coming from the US session and the layover in between the 2 sessions.Im taking some of these late trades I just have to keep reminding myself not to get use to it.
Dont sweat it if you dont see the trade conditions your looking for it shows discipline, you dont have to trade every day even if you have to miss one its better to miss one than wish you hadnt entered outside your trading plans and lost one. Hunt for your entry's like a Sniper..."if the shot aint there dont take it and expose yourself."
I always look at my stop in this manner well above or below a previous S&R point or waveform, then once you see the trade develope either correctly or against you then you step in and manage your stop to either reduce your risk or protect profits.
  • #6,160
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:50pm Oct 1, 2008 8:50pm
Bo, are you leaving gu intraday high at tuesday's high or moving it to today ?
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