No Brainer Trades | Page 198 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #3,941
  • Oct 1, 2008 6:13pm Oct 1, 2008 6:13pm
Hi Billy Ray
how did you determine your entry for your 13990 long? Was it the failed retest on the 15 minute or purely an entry off the to of the previous consolidation area?
Regards Peter
  • #3,942
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:32pm Oct 1, 2008 7:32pm
Right now, no level seems safe! This is treachery at its best!
  • #3,943
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:48pm Oct 1, 2008 7:48pm
Quoting pipeye
Right now, no level seems safe! This is treachery at its best!
Yeah Apparently Forex is trading at 50% liquidity lately which would explain a hell of a lot. I think going with the trend and tradin the breaks seems to be the order of the day (or week) until these levels start holding again and some sanity returns.
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,944
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:59pm Oct 1, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting pipeye
Right now, no level seems safe! This is treachery at its best!

I feel it too, but I have had two successful trades the last couple of days using horizontal S/R, I think you just need to be more selective, go with the trend when possible and examine the momentum leading up to the level carefully. When they go through they generally blow right through them. If it runs up and stutters (implying that there is a battle between buyers and sellers at that level) then get your order ready. Simply having a level marked up on your chart does not mean you have to pull the trigger, although there is a fine line between patience and being gun shy.


I'm not suggesting this is how BRV does it, but this has been my approach and it's kept me out of trouble the last couple of days. What would be great is if BRV did post a chart of the lower time frames and talk through his thought process going into these trades, or is it simply a 'this level will hold' and set and order?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad4hs.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad5m.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #3,945
  • Oct 2, 2008 2:41am Oct 2, 2008 2:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
A little clarity -

look for a break of 4185 for further upside movement
4300 is a sell area
4425 same, a sell
4615 would be a good target for longs
3925 is a buy - thats a retest of the massive monthly trendline

I'm bullish EUR in general, so looking for opportunities to go long - a little more color in the blog - further downside risk from where it is now is there though and should be noted.

bouncing around the Monthly trend line now... is this the turn ??
  • #3,946
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:21am Oct 2, 2008 3:21am
Quoting Willowgal
bouncing around the Monthly trend line now... is this the turn ??
I just made a new post to the blog - looks like this area its in now could be. Im looking to get long on pullbacks here.
  • #3,947
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:32am Oct 2, 2008 3:32am
20 of the biggest banks have gone under after all this crap thats gone down lately and these S/R levels work because banks trade them (?) - could it be that the coat tails we're trying to ride simply aren't there lately?

Just thinking out loud here
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,948
  • Oct 2, 2008 3:34am Oct 2, 2008 3:34am
Quoting CindyXXXX
20 of the biggest banks have gone under after all this crap thats gone down lately and these S/R levels work because banks trade them (?) - could it be that the coat tails we're trying to ride simply aren't there lately?

Just thinking out loud here
No youre right a lot of the runs in the market lately havent been coming from the normal sources. As a result we have alot of things getting smashed apart, but the traders are still there to use the technical levels. Basics hold true but we're in an environment where fundamental factors we're not used to normally are coming into play.
  • #3,949
  • Edited 4:12am Oct 2, 2008 3:46am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
No youre right a lot of the runs in the market lately havent been coming from the normal sources. As a result we have alot of things getting smashed apart, but the traders are still there to use the technical levels. Basics hold true but we're in an environment where fundamental factors we're not used to normally are coming into play.
Thanks BRV this gets me wondering again - if the markets are currently trading at 50% liquidity than normal could it be that those 20 US banks hold THAT much weight in the Forex market?
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,950
  • Oct 2, 2008 4:37am Oct 2, 2008 4:37am
BRV,

can I please ask, given that you identify some important level, how often do you decide to fade? I'm not asking for any clues regarding when to fade. I would like to watch, sweat and learn it myself.
Just a ratio please. 3 out of 4? 9 out of 10?

thankx
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #3,951
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:01am Oct 2, 2008 5:01am
Good place to look for longs E/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.GIF Size: 30 KB
  • #3,952
  • Oct 2, 2008 5:20am Oct 2, 2008 5:20am
Good signs for longs are that 1.3850 has never been broken at all and 1.3900 has not been broken on 3hr basis.

I think both areas give some support here. If that holds true, weŽll see a double bottom on the daily chart.
  • #3,953
  • Oct 2, 2008 6:41am Oct 2, 2008 6:41am
Hi BillyRay,

could you please explain, how do you determine your position size per trade?

For example:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips (our default SL level)
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

So far so good. But what if I'd like to risk less pips for a particular trade. Let's say that the price action suggests, that the price should not move more than 25 pips from our entry, because if it does, our chances for reversal are minimal. Based on this the calculation looks like this:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 25 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 8 lots

Instead of risking less, I end up risking more.

That is why I wonder, if you always have a 40 pip SL as your default stop level and you only change your risk percentages?

If you feel confident, you risk 2% per trade and if you feel less confident, you risk only 1% per trade? The 40 pip SL is always in place, but you control your loss manually. So, if the price goes against us as far as 25 pips, you would close the trade manually.

Controlling our risk with changing the percentages only it would look like this:

Confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

Less confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 1%
Resultant position size = 2,5 lots

Is this how it is done or am I missing something?

Thanks!
  • #3,954
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:22am Oct 2, 2008 7:22am
Hi Hendrix,

Unless I've misunderstood something, you are always risking 2% of your account, changing the stop loss size will simply determine how many lots you need to assume that % risk, which in your example is 2%($200). If you want to decrease the risk you would decrease the % of account (at risk) to 1% or 1.5% etc., which will determine your position size.
  • #3,955
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:34am Oct 2, 2008 7:34am
Quoting hendrix
Hi BillyRay,

could you please explain, how do you determine your position size per trade?

For example:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips (our default SL level)
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

So far so good. But what if I'd like to risk less pips for a particular trade. Let's say that the price action suggests, that the price should not move more than 25 pips from our entry, because if it does, our chances for reversal are minimal. Based on this the calculation looks like this:

Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 25 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 8 lots

Instead of risking less, I end up risking more.

That is why I wonder, if you always have a 40 pip SL as your default stop level and you only change your risk percentages?

If you feel confident, you risk 2% per trade and if you feel less confident, you risk only 1% per trade? The 40 pip SL is always in place, but you control your loss manually. So, if the price goes against us as far as 25 pips, you would close the trade manually.

Controlling our risk with changing the percentages only it would look like this:

Confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 2%
Resultant position size = 5 lots

Less confident trade:
Account size: $10.000
Stop-loss: 40 pips
Risk per trade: 1%
Resultant position size = 2,5 lots

Is this how it is done or am I missing something?

Thanks!
I suppose you meant mini lot
  • #3,956
  • Oct 2, 2008 7:37am Oct 2, 2008 7:37am
Dont have a lot of time here today but ECB press conference Trechet says growth is weakening.........see ya euro
  • #3,957
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:05am Oct 2, 2008 8:05am
One more thing - range bound action seen here with mixed 1.3750 technical level holding significance - also mixed reactions post Trechet's speech.

Rate held at 4 and a quarter. That much the market is having a hard time understanding but forward rates priced in about 100bps higher, so that much is pro EUR.
  • #3,958
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:05am Oct 2, 2008 8:05am
Quoting DaBuschi
Good signs for longs are that 1.3850 has never been broken at all and 1.3900 has not been broken on 3hr basis.

I think both areas give some support here. If that holds true, weŽll see a double bottom on the daily chart.

i faded this area and booked profits at 1.3890. i hope you did the same as the price for a euro is freefalling and currently at 1.3773
  • #3,959
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:14am Oct 2, 2008 8:14am
Short USD/CHF at around 1.1600....

BRV, where did you get that info if i may ask "forward rates priced in about 100bps higher" ?

thanks.
  • #3,960
  • Oct 2, 2008 8:17am Oct 2, 2008 8:17am
Quoting JDelphiki
i faded this area and booked profits at 1.3890. i hope you did the same as the price for a euro is freefalling and currently at 1.3773
Always have a stop in the market - mine was triggered so IŽm out
4 traders viewing now