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  • #3,881
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:37am Sep 30, 2008 9:37am
anybody dare to go long EUR/USD now ?
  • #3,882
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:41am Sep 30, 2008 9:41am
Quoting lumesh
anybody dare to go long EUR/USD now ?
I just went long at 1.4120 with a 30 pip SL.
Not a big trade or risk, but I'm walking on egg shells this week. I have virtually no resolution with any trades. This is just one of those I couldn't pass up. Same as the USD/CAD short at just 1.059. I'm struggling with this current dollar strength. Not sure what's up other than quarter/month end. I guess that could explain nearly all of it though.

EDIT: Although it seems as if my timing could be better as I just realized I walked into the 11 am fix.
  • #3,883
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:41am Sep 30, 2008 9:41am
Quoting Willowgal
How would you (or anyone else on the forum), recommend tracking volume and liquidity using MT4 charts ... is it possible ?
Not possible...but some news services provide some gossip about order flows.
  • #3,884
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:42am Sep 30, 2008 9:42am
Quoting finswin56
I just went long at 1.4120 with a 30 pip SL.
Not a big trade or risk, but I'm walking on egg shells this week. I have virtually no resolution with any trades. This is just one of those I couldn't pass up. Same as the USD/CAD short at just 1.059. I'm struggling with this current dollar strength. Not sure what's up other than quarter/month end. I guess that could explain nearly all of it though.
Yes, the 76.4 fib level was probably the target for the bit down, so good entry.
  • #3,885
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:45am Sep 30, 2008 9:45am
Quoting Willowgal
How would you (or anyone else on the forum), recommend tracking volume and liquidity using MT4 charts ... is it possible ?
You can gauge momentum by reading the tape. Getting volume is difficult because Forex is decentralized. Your best bet would be to get a charting package with a GCIS feed (esignal, e.g.) which tracks a lot of liquidity providers.

I' m staying out of this crazy market right now but I got some decent E/U support at 1.4096.
  • #3,886
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:52am Sep 30, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Robin.Hood
Yes, the 76.4 fib level was probably the target for the bit down, so good entry.
I'm Midas' bad twin it seems. I'll be standing aside now.
  • #3,887
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:56am Sep 30, 2008 9:56am
Quoting finswin56
I'm Midas' bad twin it seems. I'll be standing aside now.
Yeah all I have to say is what a spanking - days like today not the best for fading.....errr.....ummmm...to say the least.
  • #3,888
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:57am Sep 30, 2008 9:57am
what the hell is going on now...no line is holding...anybody agreed on bailout or something ?

getting burned quite bad if 106.25 gets hit on USD/JPY
  • #3,889
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:57am Sep 30, 2008 9:57am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah all I have to say is what a spanking - days like today not the best for fading.....errr.....ummmm...to say the least.
Are you typically able to identify those bad fading days? I mean the options exp days seem to be one of them. Is this end of month/quarter typical too?
  • #3,890
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:59am Sep 30, 2008 9:59am
Quoting Willowgal
I have just gone Long at 1.4160 ... looks like a serious Support level from around 19th Sept.
Hi BRV,

I followed the EU on M15 and M5 as it drove down to the 1.4151 support level. It seemed to me that it had a lot of momentum, so I did not take the long. That was a mistake - there was 30 or 35 pips in it.

If you have a moment, would you please comment on that fall from 4.4258 to 1.4151 in the context of "momentum". I need to get a better feel for this.

Thanks.
David
  • #3,891
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:59am Sep 30, 2008 9:59am
I'm going to take a close look at price action if/when we get down to the 1.4040 level. USD has dominated hard today, with Euro markets closing we may see a retracement of some sort. We have also crossed the magenta coloured median line, suggesting to me the market is way over-extended.

Today has been another of those days where you don't want to step in front of the market, especially when it is steaming along with such momentum. None of these technical levels hold much significance when the market is riddled with so much fear.
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  • #3,892
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:07am Sep 30, 2008 10:07am
Quoting Robin.Hood
Not possible...but some news services provide some gossip about order flows.

Such as?

Order flow gossip trumps everything...even Trichet
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #3,893
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:08am Sep 30, 2008 10:08am
Quoting lumesh
what the hell is going on now...no line is holding...anybody agreed on bailout or something ?

getting burned quite bad if 106.25 gets hit on USD/JPY

106.15 area has a nice confluence of resistance -- 76.4%, Weekly Central Pivot, and Monthly M1 Pivot -- and might be a safe? area to short from...but be careful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,894
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:10am Sep 30, 2008 10:10am
Hell no. Today's move is even bigger than the one that happened back on August 8, which was one of the largest we saw in years. Talk about turmoil. "Stay on the Sidelines" is an expression that comes to mind. Just blabbering.

But seriously I think we're near the end here, atleast on EUR for the daily low. I think it could be in place now.

Depending on where you charts open and close my NY time daily bar on EUR/USD has a range of 415 pips. Now THATS a biggie.
  • #3,895
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:11am Sep 30, 2008 10:11am
Today seems like a wonderful autumn day to take a walk far away from the computer.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #3,896
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:15am Sep 30, 2008 10:15am
Quoting spekitox
Today seems like a wonderful autumn day to take a walk far away from the computer.
Bingo.
  • #3,897
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:15am Sep 30, 2008 10:15am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hell no. Today's move is even bigger than the one that happened back on August 8, which was one of the largest we saw in years. Talk about turmoil. "Stay on the Sidelines" is an expression that comes to mind. Just blabbering.

But seriously I think we're near the end here, atleast on EUR for the daily low. I think it could be in place now.

Wish I had stayed on those sidelines.... all rules seem to be out of the window today
  • #3,898
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:22am Sep 30, 2008 10:22am
No lending - USD demand is high right now because of a severe lack of liquidity and borrowing - everyone that normally does it is shutting down the doors or cutting back - hence the rediculous borrowing (LIBOR) rate. That dollar index is going through the roof today without a lot of mercy, and the S&P going higher today is like throwing gasoline on a bunch of fireworks.

I'm hard pressed to believe that a day like this is going to be easy to reverse. More news coming up this week I'll see if I can actually slap something intelligent together tonight for everyone.
  • #3,899
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:26am Sep 30, 2008 10:26am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,900
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:47am Sep 30, 2008 10:47am
Ok so. . . . usd/jpy ran slam into resistance at 106.14 . . . now its retracing. . . but where lies the reaction . . . . 3 levels of support coincide with 3 separate fibs . . . confluence on 3 levels . . I dont care about which one looks the best to you, I would like to know if you were to pick one WHY you would choose that one. . .That is if you have the time

http://i35.tinypic.com/2uxxugx.jpg

And lets pretend its a normal day and this is just a normal move with normal liquidity. . . not captain insaneo day
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