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  • #3,861
  • Sep 30, 2008 6:07am Sep 30, 2008 6:07am
Quoting Jared
Trying to learn this method. Is this a no brainer trade on USD/JPY for short right now? (I have one short in play and one more set for if price hits the 50% retrace).
I just went short on this actually - it consolidating right now so so far looking decent.
  • #3,862
  • Sep 30, 2008 6:08am Sep 30, 2008 6:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
618 retracement and historical support
Im going to scratch this trade off the list just to cut down on short dollar exposure - theres another one out there on EUR in a similar spot.
  • #3,863
  • Sep 30, 2008 6:37am Sep 30, 2008 6:37am
Still short USD/JPY ?
  • #3,864
  • Sep 30, 2008 7:04am Sep 30, 2008 7:04am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I just went short on this actually - it consolidating right now so so far looking decent.
If you are still around Billy Ray could you shed some light on how to decide whether to stay in the short trade or close out. The hourly seems to be either pausing before a continuation up or pausing before reversing down Have you any pearls of wisdom to anticipate the direction or do we just wait until the stop gets taken out.

Rob
  • #3,865
  • Edited 7:58am Sep 30, 2008 7:45am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting robgsxr
If you are still around Billy Ray could you shed some light on how to decide whether to stay in the short trade or close out. The hourly seems to be either pausing before a continuation up or pausing before reversing down Have you any pearls of wisdom to anticipate the direction or do we just wait until the stop gets taken out.

Rob
Hi Rob - gotta be honest I'm not a huge fan of whats going on out there in general today.

US Libor rates hit an all time high and theres little liquidity to be really spoken of. I'm not looking at this as a longer term trade because I think we'll see some recovery in the US Equity markets after yesterday and with all the consolidation at this point I'm just looking for a little profit on it.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...CHo&refer=home

Technicals are heavily overbought so that much is in favor but the fundamental backdrop is pointing higher on the pair for the time being over the next couple days I suspect - just a quick observation.....I quite honestly havent done a deep analysis here today Ive been rather busy but will keep you posted.
  • #3,866
  • Sep 30, 2008 7:51am Sep 30, 2008 7:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Confluence of 618 retracement and historical support; "bottom of bucket" pattern.
Only about +13pts on this one so far but its live just a heads up - we could see some short term reversals here.
  • #3,867
  • Sep 30, 2008 7:54am Sep 30, 2008 7:54am
Quoting robgsxr
If you are still around Billy Ray could you shed some light on how to decide whether to stay in the short trade or close out. The hourly seems to be either pausing before a continuation up or pausing before reversing down Have you any pearls of wisdom to anticipate the direction or do we just wait until the stop gets taken out.

Rob

Something just got hit - just fell off pretty hard - I want to see 104.50 on this....it looks like its well overdue on shorter timeframes. If there are any divergence traders out there you'de be in heaven right now.
  • #3,868
  • Sep 30, 2008 7:58am Sep 30, 2008 7:58am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Rob - gotta be honest I'm not a huge fan of whats going on out there in general today.

US Libor rates hit an all time high and theres little liquidity to be really spoken of. I'm not looking at this as a longer term trade because I think we'll see some recovery in the US Equity markets after yesterday and with all the consolidation at this point I'm just looking for a little profit on it.

Technicals are heavily overbought so that much is in favor but the fundamental backdrop is pointing higher on the pair for the time being.

Thanks Billy Ray,

I think messy sums it up for my limited understanding. However this environment is a good learning experience for me being relatively new to all markets, so I will not be trading live for a few days but running on my demo as if its for real.

No brainers has been a great help with my learning, thanks for all you are doing.

Rob
  • #3,869
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:04am Sep 30, 2008 8:04am
Quoting robgsxr
Thanks Billy Ray,

I think messy sums it up for my limited understanding. However this environment is a good learning experience for me being relatively new to all markets, so I will not be trading live for a few days but running on my demo as if its for real.

No brainers has been a great help with my learning, thanks for all you are doing.

Rob
np - I hope you saw my edits - they're not in your reply here - I was trying to get back to you quickly but I didnt want to make you do anything here.
  • #3,870
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:12am Sep 30, 2008 8:12am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
np - I hope you saw my edits - they're not in your reply here - I was trying to get back to you quickly but I didnt want to make you do anything here.

gotcha BR.
One addition for my clarification are you seeing a cup base around 104.50 on hourly's ? is this why you target this price?
  • #3,871
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:12am Sep 30, 2008 8:12am
are you sure about the short BRV ?
  • #3,872
  • Edited 9:47am Sep 30, 2008 8:25am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Only about +13pts on this one so far but its live just a heads up - we could see some short term reversals here.
By the way if EUR keeps on tugging away here we've got 1.4112 as the 764 retracement, which should get a reaction if everything's under control.....or the last lows at 1.4150.
  • #3,873
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:28am Sep 30, 2008 8:28am
Quoting lumesh
are you sure about the short BRV ?
No its definitely NOT the most comfortable trade for me here in the past few days...I'm in at a very small size. More reliable exhaustion areas higher on the charts (106.00-106.15, and higher). UJ is going to play along with SPX and I dont see it falling lower short term. This is just an intraday trade.
  • #3,874
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:39am Sep 30, 2008 8:39am
BRV,
I tried to enter a buy on GBPJPY at support around 187.25. I got stopped out and it bounced at 186.50. After analyzing my trade for the mistake I realized that in setting my barriers I was looking from left to right while finding the ideal entry level.

I should have done it from right to left (giving more weight to most recent level where PA found support, and then see how it behaved before that around that area) and identify 186.85 as the correct area of support. Am I right in pinpointing my mistake ? Is this the right way to go about setting barriers ?
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,875
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:39am Sep 30, 2008 8:39am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Confluence of 618 retracement and historical support; "bottom of bucket" pattern.
Too early for this so only +15 pips - again VERY DRY out there in general I would use a little more caution than usual today.
  • #3,876
  • Sep 30, 2008 8:52am Sep 30, 2008 8:52am
interesting to see how the EUR/USD will work out. Hot selling is going on.
  • #3,877
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:09am Sep 30, 2008 9:09am
anyone seeing a short opportunity in GBPCHF? It's now bouncing off a big resistance area and nearly a nice DTL.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #3,878
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:10am Sep 30, 2008 9:10am
Quoting lumesh
interesting to see how the EUR/USD will work out. Hot selling is going on.
I have just gone Long at 1.4160 ... looks like a serious Support level from around 19th Sept.
  • #3,879
  • Edited 9:27am Sep 30, 2008 9:17am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting Grath
Ah! So are these "fix times" set at specific unchanging hours of the day? If so, when? Are they the same for all pairs?

[Notice I avoided asking, "Are the fix times fixed?"]

.
Yep, at specific times. What we just saw minutes ago was big end of month dollar demand ahead of 3pm London fixing. So safe bet the move would end at 3pm! Yesterday, on the other hand, volatility took off at 3pm.

Update: Just heard that a big euro-sterling sell order was part of that move too. These things happen at the end of the month.

Other times to keep track of are 1.55am (where usdjpy peaked yesterday), and 8pm. You may also note change in volatility and liquidity around other whole hours such as 8am, 10am, 11am, and 4pm for the same reason. Not to mention futures fixing, ECB official rate fixing and so on.
  • #3,880
  • Sep 30, 2008 9:36am Sep 30, 2008 9:36am
Quoting Robin.Hood
Yep, at specific times. What we just saw minutes ago was big end of month dollar demand ahead of 3pm London fixing. So safe bet the move would end at 3pm! Yesterday, on the other hand, volatility took off at 3pm.

Update: Just heard that a big euro-sterling sell order was part of that move too. These things happen at the end of the month.

Other times to keep track of are 1.55am (where usdjpy peaked yesterday), and 8pm. You may also note change in volatility and liquidity around other whole hours such as 8am, 10am, 11am, and 4pm for the same reason. Not to mention futures fixing, ECB official rate fixing and so on.
How would you (or anyone else on the forum), recommend tracking volume and liquidity using MT4 charts ... is it possible ?
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