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  • #821
  • Sep 25, 2008 7:39am Sep 25, 2008 7:39am
If 86.00 is broken then we'll know if this is real because that was a major price action area
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #822
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:04pm Sep 25, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting DutchTrader
If 86.00 is broken then we'll know if this is real because that was a major price action area
even if it breaks 86 it will be short term

I suggest caution as the Rba has there finger on the drop interest rate button. Infra day rates are up in Australia with this global financial bump and then it is clear global growth/demand will be soft over the next year

Medium term we will be in the 70's

Hb: spelling crtsy iPhone
  • #823
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:08am Sep 29, 2008 8:08am
Despite all the bulls around here the aud/usd has been sinking.

Listen to the market and look at your chart,FA are for long term people and looking at the current worldwide turmoil i don't think any country can stay safe from it. So what does the FA go? FA goes by projection of future but can anyone project what will happen in 3-6 months now with all the madness right now?

I'm bearish on aud by the way,US are done with the rate cuts but aud eur and all the other economies likely have to follow up with rate cut to boost growth.

I am going for a trading stance going forward,there will be a lot of volatility going ahead.

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All the pairs are consolidating now will wait an hr more to see whether there's trading chance for the eur/usd and aud/usd pair.
  • #824
  • Edited 12:55pm Sep 29, 2008 8:37am | Edited 12:55pm
The yield is too good to pass up for the world.

Added on dip post house vote and closed out positive 15 pipnot sure what's going to happen next, but the Euro was the one to long.
  • #825
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:50pm Sep 29, 2008 10:50pm
If the AUD can whether the panic selling from repatriation mainly against Yen and our market holds up well in both equities and credit then you will see some investors appearing in Australia for flight to quality.
Australia has a well regulated market some say the best in the world.
I can only see this as a benefit for the AUD
  • #826
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:20pm Sep 29, 2008 11:20pm
I am longing the Aud/Usd each time it dips below 80 cents with a view to building a long term position. Things might be a bit bumpy for a month or two but I am thinking about next year.

K
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #827
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:28pm Sep 29, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting lasty
If the AUD can whether the panic selling from repatriation mainly against Yen and our market holds up well in both equities and credit then you will see some investors appearing in Australia for flight to quality.
Australia has a well regulated market some say the best in the world.
I can only see this as a benefit for the AUD
In Bear Market...Everything will slide...The more or less depend on the quality of the counter...

The best is to trade what we see...


Sonic
  • #828
  • Sep 30, 2008 1:38am Sep 30, 2008 1:38am
With another interest rate cut on the way, better buckle up for a wild ride -


http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...016110,00.html
  • #829
  • Sep 30, 2008 1:47am Sep 30, 2008 1:47am
Market should not go lower than 0.7909. After this move down it should go up to 0.8024 - 0.8126 area.
  • #830
  • Sep 30, 2008 5:26am Sep 30, 2008 5:26am
Quoting suave
With another interest rate cut on the way, better buckle up for a wild ride -


http://www.news.com.au/business/mone...016110,00.html
i just started to learn about aud, how the rate cut will influence aud/usd?
  • #831
  • Edited 4:16pm Sep 30, 2008 3:09pm | Edited 4:16pm
Traders will want to move their money away from the AUD to a currency with a higher interest rate. So if the US interest rate is the greater than or equal to what it is right now and only the AUD rate drops, the difference grows. This means the pair will be bearish.

And wowzers theres a mad obvious pennant going on right now with our boys...excited to see where its going to go.
MUSTARD
  • #832
  • Sep 30, 2008 5:48pm Sep 30, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting ColMustard
Traders will want to move their money away from the AUD to a currency with a higher interest rate. So if the US interest rate is the greater than or equal to what it is right now and only the AUD rate drops, the difference grows. This means the pair will be bearish.

And wowzers theres a mad obvious pennant going on right now with our boys...excited to see where its going to go.
Yeah how about the Zimbabwe dollar ????

Oh their economy is out of control ?
Have a look at the US then.

Economists are calling for a rate cut but on what grounds?
Retail spending came in higher than expected.
Inflation is still high.
Unemployment isnt growing.
Banks arent lending.
We have the PM saying to pay off debt rather than borrow.
Am I missing something?

Ok now for the US dollar.
Why are they buying it?
Perhaps its because the US in denial and thinking Europe is worse off than them?
Well they are similar but not worse.
The US even with the bailout are in deep shizenhausen.
Is the big money holding off for a massive US dollar rout?
I think we are being set up for a sovereign fund splurge into currencies and out of the dollar.
  • #833
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:11pm Sep 30, 2008 10:11pm
My comment was more of a explanatory response to toze30 on how a change in an interest rate usually effects a chart. I wasnt trying to comment on the current situation in Australia. Ill let you make the FA on that. And by no means at all was I saying that its time to buy dollars asap because the Australian economy is going to the dogs! I should have clarified.
MUSTARD
  • #834
  • Sep 30, 2008 10:18pm Sep 30, 2008 10:18pm
Just posting a quick observation. Using a fib from mondays open, brought down so tuesdays high is the 61.80 line, tuesdays high, low, and close all end on retracement lines.:nerd:
MUSTARD
  • #835
  • Sep 30, 2008 11:43pm Sep 30, 2008 11:43pm
Quoting ColMustard
Just posting a quick observation. Using a fib from mondays open, brought down so tuesdays high is the 61.80 line, tuesdays high, low, and close all end on retracement lines.:nerd:
Thats cool colonel
  • #836
  • Sep 30, 2008 11:52pm Sep 30, 2008 11:52pm
Quoting toze30
i just started to learn about aud, how the rate cut will influence aud/usd?
Ok but let me throw a spanner in the works.
The current crisis has had an unusual affect on Int rates and the currencies.
The int rates where the Central banks are reporting dont reflect the current market conditions.
So even if we get 0.5pct cut and the world paying up for liquidity it shouldnt affect it.
Once again its supply and demand that dictates and not Glen Stevens's Flag waving cut.
  • #837
  • Oct 1, 2008 12:17am Oct 1, 2008 12:17am
Quoting lasty
Ok but let me throw a spanner in the works.
The current crisis has had an unusual affect on Int rates and the currencies.
The int rates where the Central banks are reporting dont reflect the current market conditions.
So even if we get 0.5pct cut and the world paying up for liquidity it shouldnt affect it.
Once again its supply and demand that dictates and not Glen Stevens's Flag waving cut.
True, very true, which is why the Australia banks are copping a whole load of flak for cutting Term deposit rates but not changing their mortgage rates. Kind of a stitch up
  • #838
  • Oct 1, 2008 7:37pm Oct 1, 2008 7:37pm
The Govt in Australia are looking to "regulate home lending"
There is rumour that the govt will provide home lending.
So whats this got to do with the AUD/USD?

Well the impact can be huge... If a liquidity pool of money is sourced from onshore rather than offshore. Interest flows will be staying onshore and that could be favourable for the AUD.

Lets see what they decide.
  • #839
  • Oct 3, 2008 12:10am Oct 3, 2008 12:10am
We have seen the USD strengthen dramatically.
This is not because the USD is in a better place to weather the storm than others.
The US economy is shot to pieces (for the timebeing) and I just heard one comment from a US futures trader when Asked by a reporter " Why is the USD stronger" His comment SERIOUSLY said we have alot of trees and we can print more USD if need be.

Of course that would send the USD to the floor.

Now we are in the midst of a credit crisis. Every liquid asset class is getting sold.People need cash.
Some need to fund the USD books.
Banks arent lending to each other.
What I think is happening is that they are doing currency swaps to raise the USD and having to sell foreign currency for USD.
Now there is a risk. They have entered into exchange rate exposure.
Once the credit market conditions ease then expect these to be unwound.
Interesting times ahead with whippy markets.
  • #840
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:46am Oct 3, 2008 6:46am
Can't post a chart but I see a triangle forming.

Anyone confirm?
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