Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading | Page 94 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Volume for indices, tick and the exchange derived volume 4 replies

Are quotes for minor pairs real or just derived from majors? 0 replies

Oanda spread versus MB Trading spread 27 replies

HOW TO PLOT derived cross 0 replies

Derived Currency Strength Indicator from multiple pairs 0 replies

Attachments: Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading
Exit Attachments

Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,861
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:18pm Sep 29, 2008 3:18pm
Hi,

I wonder how you calculate the dividence between the pairs by hand, without any indicator?
  • #1,862
  • Sep 29, 2008 4:01pm Sep 29, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting Archie
Hi,

I wonder how you calculate the dividence between the pairs by hand, without any indicator?
Just add/subtract 0.25%, 0.50% etc. to the daily close values of EUR/CHF.
  • #1,863
  • Edited 4:24pm Sep 29, 2008 4:03pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quoting Richard
pipsalot-

In my opinion this sounds like a good idea but in reality it would be very bad, for two reasons:

Firstly, if the position goes against you then having your Lot1 entered on the zero line will impact greatly on your possiable overall DD should you get caught in a trendy move. This means, should you decide to try this, you should scale back your lot sizes to allow for this extra DD and the knock on effect of that is that you will earn less from the more regular small ranging moves.

Secondly,and much more importantly, having Lot1 entered on the zero line totally changes the point at which you will be able to exit the overall position at BE or a profit.

I do agree that there should be a better solution to the negative swap problem than simply 'close any short position older than 10 days at profit or loss' but unfortunatly I don't think this is it (wish it was). Until a solution is found you could just trade the shorts by opening Lot1 & Lot2 using half your normal lot size and then only move to full Lot size on the entry of Lot3. This makes any short position much easier to close quicker, even if you get caught in quite a trendy move. True you earn less on short trades but it's better than not trading the shorts at all or loosing sleep over the negative swap buildup
Richard,

Thanks for your reply. The point about changing the take profit point is very true. Maybe using a Sharia account is the best option for short positions.

Strange thing is, I have a relatively large drawdown right now (much larger than I ever allowed using directional trading) but I'm not feeling very stressed about it right now. It will be interesting to see how this system copes with something like this.
  • #1,864
  • Sep 29, 2008 4:20pm Sep 29, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting pipsalot
Richard,

Thanks for your reply. The point about changing the take profit point is very true. Maybe using a Sharia account is the best option for short positions.
From my investigations, all brokers offering this type of account are either cowboys who are not regulated or charge some type of commission instead of the swap fees. If the market does not get you you they will certainly try. They can offer swap free only because they are not placing your position in the market but holding the other side against you on their books.
  • #1,865
  • Edited 6:08pm Sep 29, 2008 4:55pm | Edited 6:08pm
Hi,

what a day!

I entered three positions, 1st 1,5840, 2nd 1,5800, 3rd 1,5740.

The 2nd I already entered at 1,5800 because I hoped that the round number would serve for resistance ....

The 3rd position I've doubeled to make up for possible losses on 1st and 2nd due to that incredible momentum.

well, usually there will be a pullback at least to the exit of the 3rd, around 1,5780 ... if not, I'd have to continue on with the mini-lot size of the 3rd position.

let's wait and see

Regards

ps: did you see that? price just dipped down below 1,5680 ... I guess I don't enter 4th yet ... I go sleep and check the price tomorrow 7.00 gmt.

does anybody know what has caused that extreme eurchf fall?
  • #1,866
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:53pm Sep 29, 2008 9:53pm
WHAT A STRONG MOOVE!!!

At 1,5700 add a long ( was supposed to be at 157,11 but pace was so fast )
  • #1,867
  • Sep 30, 2008 2:02am Sep 30, 2008 2:02am
4th lot out.
  • #1,868
  • Sep 30, 2008 2:12am Sep 30, 2008 2:12am
mother of all volatilities... been out of this space for a while trading oil.
  • #1,869
  • Sep 30, 2008 2:17am Sep 30, 2008 2:17am
Quoting FXSnipe
mother of all volatilities... been out of this space for a while trading oil.
Yeah, no kidding... Getting close to break even now after a huge drawdown about ten hours ago.
  • #1,870
  • Sep 30, 2008 2:23am Sep 30, 2008 2:23am
3rd long position (double) out, re-entry at about 1,5700


1st short entered at 1,5770
  • #1,871
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:05am Sep 30, 2008 3:05am
Cash is king
i did not like the 240 moove down of yesterday ( from my memory i cannot remember a 240 pips down on eur/chf)

So i decided to close all the positions at even money was 157,97 + spread.

I went out very luckily above 158 for an even trade but am happy with that one.
Zero loss so far since i started here almost a record
  • #1,872
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:08am Sep 30, 2008 3:08am
Ashes,
You are taking long positions and concurrently short position during the same "cycle"?
You also took double lot on entry 3.
Why are you doing this?
If you were trading the new "cycle" from yesterday. You should have opened 4 positions (equally of size and not doubling) and closed the last position 4 because of the pullback >+0.25%
For today you should be waiting with an entry from last exit -0.50% (being a long and being position 4 again) and working out your other 3 lots when the pullback continues.

Also, the markets are very volatile these days because of the bad environment and the rejection of the bailoutplan. Which made (probably) the eur-chf also drop or at least being very volatile for the moment. The bad ecenomics in u.s. and the rejection of the bailout have implications for the euro zone also. At least that is how it is perceived for know. This volatillity is great for the hedging strategy but in the meantime you have to be carefull not overtrading your lot size when the trend continues and the eur-chf is making moves of in excess of +1.5%. But by the same token this volatility creates also a lot of pull back to work your positions profitably. This last part is the great key of the Spieler trading hedge strategy. Not being passive but actively working your positions using the pull backs.
  • #1,873
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:12am Sep 30, 2008 3:12am
Quoting spieler
Cash is king
i did not like the 240 moove down of yesterday ( from my memory i cannot remember a 240 pips down on eur/chf)

So i decided to close all the positions at even money was 157,97 + spread.

I went out very luckily above 158 for an even trade but am happy with that one.
Zero loss so far since i started here almost a record
I wish I could have done the same, but unfortunately it only spent a couple of seconds at the 1.5800 level, so now I'm waiting for it to go up again.
  • #1,874
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:22am Sep 30, 2008 3:22am
i had prepared the exit waiting 15802 .
i sold all positions buy close all it was still "uping" so i get good fill.

precisions : I am a pro asset manager and get pay every month on success fees.
This has to se in my decision to close everything this last day of the month if you see what i mean ( It adds an argument to what i said earlier on the 240 pips moove)
Looks like it is going to rebreak 158 today recorellation is on its way
  • #1,875
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:28am Sep 30, 2008 3:28am
Quoting spieler
Cash is king
i did not like the 240 moove down of yesterday ( from my memory i cannot remember a 240 pips down on eur/chf)
16 March 2008.
O: 1.5648
H: 1.5648
L: 1.5332
C: 1.5441
  • #1,876
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:29am Sep 30, 2008 3:29am
should have been on hollyday
  • #1,877
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:39am Sep 30, 2008 3:39am
hello all,


can someone pinpoint me to a summary of the exact buy and sell rules for this strategy?

I have ZERO knowledge about spread, and after reading the word document summary in this thread, I am still very confused.

My understanding right now is, after downloading the "SpeilersHedge Divergence v5.1" indicator, put it on my 1 hr chart on EurChf.

looking at the % value on the indicator, I would
-o.25% buy 1 lot
-0.5% buy 1 lot
-0.75% buy 1 lot
-1.25% buy 2 lots?
what are the next sequences?
what are the exact profit targets?

vice versa for sell.

So could I actually start buying or selling only when it the % reaches 0.5%.
It seems to be a semi martingale mm style..

please enlighten me.. thanks.
  • #1,878
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:42am Sep 30, 2008 3:42am
Quoting speedtrader8
hello all,


can someone pinpoint me to a summary of the exact buy and sell rules for this strategy?

I have ZERO knowledge about spread, and after reading the word document summary in this thread, I am still very confused.

My understanding right now is, after downloading the "SpeilersHedge Divergence v5.1" indicator, put it on my 1 hr chart on EurChf.

looking at the % value on the indicator, I would
-o.25% buy 1 lot
-0.5% buy 1 lot
-0.75% buy 1 lot
-1.25% buy 2 lots?
what are the next sequences?
what are the exact profit targets?

vice versa for sell.

So could I actually start buying or selling only when it the % reaches 0.5%.
It seems to be a semi martingale mm style..

please enlighten me.. thanks.


Read it all over and start from the beginning. No one can really explain it , you have to let it sink in...
There are no certainties only oppurtunities.
  • #1,879
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:43am Sep 30, 2008 3:43am
3-o.25% buy 1 lot
-0.5% buy 1 lot
-0.75% buy 1 lot
-1.25% buy 2 lots?
what are the next sequences?
what are the exact profit targets?3


I dont know where these figures come from but they are almost 100% not my system.
You can find in the thread somewhere a download document summarising the system.
And this is not a martingale money management NOT AT ALL
  • #1,880
  • Sep 30, 2008 3:44am Sep 30, 2008 3:44am
Quoting amsterdanny
Ashes,
You are taking long positions and concurrently short position during the same "cycle"?
You also took double lot on entry 3.
Why are you doing this?
If you were trading the new "cycle" from yesterday. You should have opened 4 positions (equally of size and not doubling) and closed the last position 4 because of the pullback >+0.25%
For today you should be waiting with an entry from last exit -0.50% (being a long and being position 4 again) and working out your other 3 lots when the pullback continues.

Also, the markets are very volatile these days because of the bad environment and the rejection of the bailoutplan. Which made (probably) the eur-chf also drop or at least being very volatile for the moment. The bad ecenomics in u.s. and the rejection of the bailout have implications for the euro zone also. At least that is how it is perceived for know. This volatillity is great for the hedging strategy but in the meantime you have to be carefull not overtrading your lot size when the trend continues and the eur-chf is making moves of in excess of +1.5%. But by the same token this volatility creates also a lot of pull back to work your positions profitably. This last part is the great key of the Spieler trading hedge strategy. Not being passive but actively working your positions using the pull backs.
hi amsterdanny,

the trade of 29 september is where I've taken the 3rd position with double the size, because of the huge and unexpected momentum of eurchf. my backtests have shown, that almost every time the 3rd position will be closed with profit, even if 1st and 2nd won't get hit anymore. like this I compensate possible losses on the first two positions. also I have increased the steps for entering the positions because of the huge momentum.

the trade of 30 september is a completely new setup as the date shows, and here the indication according to the rules was to enter short, what I did. Like this I'm seperating each trade from the other and actually hedge one day against the other.

The outcome should be profitable even if I would have to close some positions with loss.

Yes, I did check the news this morning about the rejection of the bailoutplan. Let's see what it does to the market today.

Regards
2 traders viewing now