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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,201
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:23am Sep 29, 2008 11:23am
I took the same trade. I was hoping for a retrace, but didn't see the price action to wait.
Good luck my man!
  • #17,202
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:43am Sep 29, 2008 11:43am
Quoting Hookem28
I took the same trade. I was hoping for a retrace, but didn't see the price action to wait.
Good luck my man!

I am a bit worried as it was suppose to have moved at least 25 allready with that type of pullback. I will know the next 10 to 15 minutes.
  • #17,203
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:57am Sep 29, 2008 11:57am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am a bit worried as it was suppose to have moved at least 25 allready with that type of pullback. I will know the next 10 to 15 minutes.
Hi Phillip,

Really hoping your trade is successful.

I wonder if you could let us know why you decided to take a "high risk" trade at this point?
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,204
  • Edited 12:21pm Sep 29, 2008 12:06pm | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting edeyj999
Hi Phillip,

Really hoping your trade is successful.

I wonder if you could let us know why you decided to take a "high risk" trade at this point?

The high risk was not so much in the setup but in the stoploss. The setup was good but the stoploss huge. The tail it was busy forming at that point (on the 4H) was my reason for interest. The gapdown this morning and the fact that it was not filled made me prepare for a further downmove. I was waiting for a setup based on rhythm to enter and this was an oppertunity.

Edit
The main thing is also that the market is going to do what it wants to do. We have to be prepared at what it is going to give us and cut the losses to the minimum. A downmove might not even come but the setup and rhythm indicated such a possibility. Therefore after a lack of movement, because I expect price to move in my favour quite quickly with a pullback setup like that, I have decided to close 50% after +20 and set remainder on -20 for a BE at worst.
  • #17,205
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:06pm Sep 29, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am a bit worried as it was suppose to have moved at least 25 allready with that type of pullback. I will know the next 10 to 15 minutes.
hope down move starts with this TC in M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #17,206
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:20pm Sep 29, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The high risk was not so much in the setup but in the stoploss. The setup was good but the stoploss huge. The tail it was busy forming at that point (on the 4H) was my reason for interest. The gapdown this morning and the fact that it was not filled made me prepare for a further downmove. I was waiting for a setup based on rhythm to enter and this was an oppertunity.
Thanks, Phillip. Interesting to get your thoughts on the trade. Would be interesting now to see how you manage it.
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,207
  • Edited 12:55pm Sep 29, 2008 12:37pm | Edited 12:55pm
Quoting edeyj999
Thanks, Phillip. Interesting to get your thoughts on the trade. Would be interesting now to see how you manage it.
I got out BE. It can still move down but I made my trade and that is it. Will look tomorrow again unless something good is happening with the rhythm if it goes down some more.

Edit
WOW. With jumps up and down like that it is better to go fishing!!!!!!!!
  • #17,208
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:38pm Sep 29, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
This is a high risk trade taken on 4H and 1H rhythm.

My 4th trade for the month. The price has moved to below the 89sma on the 4H and then retraced to it and started moving down again. The 1H confirm as well the retsest of the 89sma on the 4H and then the move away. I have split my stoploss in a 50 and 30 on 2 positions. I will close one position after 25pips gain and then set the remainder on a -25pips to go breakeven if I am taken out.

Edit 1
Time will also play a roll in my decision as to this trade. If it does not move within a certain period of time I will consider closing the deal or at least half the position or evn both.

Edit 2
I am a bit worried as it was suppose to have moved at least 25 allready with that type of pullback. I will know the next 10 to 15 minutes.

Edit
Due to the lack of speed I have closed 50% for +20 and set remainder at -20 for a BE trade should the stoploss trigger.

Edit
Remainder was taken out at -20 for a total trade on Breakeven.

I was'nt happy with the movement after the setup candle( the move away from the 89sma) was formed. Price was moving nowhere. Normally price moves quite quick after a pullback setup like that. Therfore my decision and I got out at Breakeven.
As far as I am concern it was worth it because the possibilty were there for a further down move. If I wasnt in it and it moved I would have been cross with myself.
i took that signal too. Due to lots of new from Us i decided to close position +1 pip .
  • #17,209
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:47pm Sep 29, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting 4newbie
i took that signal too. Due to lots of new from Us i decided to close position +1 pip .
Just saw the price jumping up. I have been looking at FF Calender and saw only minor news that was allready out. Did I miss something.
  • #17,210
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:02pm Sep 29, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Just saw the price jumping up. I have been looking at FF Calender and saw only minor news that was allready out. Did I miss something.
They are voting on the Financial Bailout plan, and they don't have the votes for passage yet.
  • #17,211
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:05pm Sep 29, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Hookem28
They are voting on the Financial Bailout plan, and they don't have the votes for passage yet.
But have there been an outcome yet. The jump and retrace might be an indication of news leakout. Maybe someone can give us some inside. Where is Pips now. We miss you.
  • #17,212
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:06pm Sep 29, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
But have there been an outcome yet.
No. They have 205 votes for the plan, and they need 212 I believe.
  • #17,213
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:12pm Sep 29, 2008 1:12pm
CNBC said the bill as is will not pass. Could have a hugely negative impact on the dollar.
  • #17,214
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:16pm Sep 29, 2008 1:16pm
Did anyone else take on the Gap Close on the EurJpy an GbpJpy this morning? I had been waiting for a while to go short on these and stuck an sell limit order in on the open last night @ 21EMA (approx 155.05 and 195.35). Not sure how this fits in with the system but I was looking for it to come back to the 89SMA after if fell through the 21EMA end of last week.
I was also short on Euro and Cable as I felt a we were due to pull back to 89SMA. Needless to say it was a few more points that I expected to get.
  • #17,215
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:19pm Sep 29, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
But have there been an outcome yet. The jump and retrace might be an indication of news leakout. Maybe someone can give us some inside. Where is Pips now. We miss you.
The bailout bill was voted down - been watching the drama on Bloomberg. The markets are up and down on the back of the vote and then the post vote possibilities of peoples arms being twisted to change. However, the final decision is a no to the bill.

This was not listed on FF as a potential news story. However, I did raise it earlier today in the thread in a response to a posting by Palmer. I wanted to know if anyone would trade during the news. Decided to stay out myself....phew.

Good to see no damage doen to your account though Phillip. Expect a couple of days of high volatility I think.
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,216
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:42pm Sep 29, 2008 1:42pm
Hi, Phillip and everybody, I hope you all have been doing great. Thanks Phillip and all contributors!

I started learning this great system since last year. Left it for a while. Re-started one month ago. Okay, I was better than before.

2 hour and 30 minutes ago we saw a successful round bottom CT signal on EUR 4H chart. Look at the attached picture. This is a GMT+0 server so different than Phillip will see on his chart.

I did not take this one because I had been hurted by low-probability round bottom signals. However, if I had taken it, the setup would be:
Entry long - 1.4381 (1.4400 and 1.4453 on the way. ema8 = 1.4467)
Stoploss - 1.4310 (low during the past 3 bars)
Takeprofit - 1.4467
Risk : Return = 71:86 ok

Result - If you check 5min chart, you will see price went up smoothly without obviouse retracement. Passed by our TP 1.4467 easily and hit 1.4567. A great one. Since price stayed on above 1.4491 for 3 minutes only, 1.4467 is a practical TP target.

We had been talking about 4H MACD strategy in a local Chinese forex forum and we have at least one active chatting group on a Chinese local Instant Message software. I believe many have been benefited from this great system and I will work hard to join them. More pips for everyone!
Attached Image
  • #17,217
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:50pm Sep 29, 2008 1:50pm
My suggestion for everybody is to do what you know. If you're not a fundy trader, don't trade that way. There are plenty of people who do on a daily basis, who will eat your lunch.
  • #17,218
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:48pm Sep 29, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting edeyj999
The bailout bill was voted down - been watching the drama on Bloomberg. The markets are up and down on the back of the vote and then the post vote possibilities of peoples arms being twisted to change. However, the final decision is a no to the bill.

This was not listed on FF as a potential news story. However, I did raise it earlier today in the thread in a response to a posting by Palmer. I wanted to know if anyone would trade during the news. Decided to stay out myself....phew.

Good to see no damage doen to your account though Phillip. Expect a couple of days of high volatility I think.
Thanks. I thought the news was allready out. This trade was a mistake by me if you take the news that were awaiting into consideration. I had a look but did not see any news still awaiting. Just shows that one has to be wakeup. Could have cost me a lot of pips.
  • #17,219
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:29pm Sep 29, 2008 3:29pm
The bail out plan was rejected. Congress will vote again tomorrow. Expect some more jumps in the currencies. Dow plunged after today's news. Keep an eye on companies stocks benefiting from the bail out plan. i.e AIG has been consolidating since the bail out negotiations have begun. USD may go either way once the plan is approved.
  • #17,220
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:23pm Sep 29, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting shinetrip
Hi, Phillip and everybody, I hope you all have been doing great. Thanks Phillip and all contributors!

I started learning this great system since last year. Left it for a while. Re-started one month ago. Okay, I was better than before.

2 hour and 30 minutes ago we saw a successful round bottom CT signal on EUR 4H chart. Look at the attached picture. This is a GMT+0 server so different than Phillip will see on his chart.

I did not take this one because I had been hurted by low-probability round bottom signals. However, if I had taken it, the setup would be:
Entry long - 1.4381 (1.4400 and 1.4453 on the way. ema8 = 1.4467)
Stoploss - 1.4310 (low during the past 3 bars)
Takeprofit - 1.4467
Risk : Return = 71:86 ok

Result - If you check 5min chart, you will see price went up smoothly without obviouse retracement. Passed by our TP 1.4467 easily and hit 1.4567. A great one. Since price stayed on above 1.4491 for 3 minutes only, 1.4467 is a practical TP target.

We had been talking about 4H MACD strategy in a local Chinese forex forum and we have at least one active chatting group on a Chinese local Instant Message software. I believe many have been benefited from this great system and I will work hard to join them. More pips for everyone!
The risk reward ratio was fine, but the stop loss was too huge. However, the trade can be done with Oanda because you can trade with units and not lots. Use an Oanda unit calculator to determine the amount of units you should trade without risking more than 2% of your capital per trade.

Thats how flexible trading with Oanda. I'll always make sure that I only risk 2% of my capital irregardless of the size of the stop loss. As long as the risk reward is about 1:1, and probabiliy is high, i will take the odds on.
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