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  • #341
  • Sep 29, 2008 6:46am Sep 29, 2008 6:46am
Quoting Rabid
Laff... depends on your definition of gambling.

Strictly speaking any bet on a game of chance is gambling, so yes, individual trades are gambling in that sense.

But if you have a defined statistical edge that plays out over time, you're playing w/ the law of large numbers on your side and it stops being gambling as a larger number of trades are taken... moving beyond a game of chance.
No you are wrong. That is still gambling. Please look up gambling in the dictionary.
  • #342
  • Sep 29, 2008 6:48am Sep 29, 2008 6:48am
Quoting lostinspace
Is that fish, pips, and peace? Mushy?

Do you have a lispth
  • #343
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:02am Sep 29, 2008 7:02am
Quote
No you are wrong. That is still gambling. Please look up gambling in the dictionary.

Dude, I did, I quoted from the dictionary.

"To stake or risk money, or anything of value, on the outcome of something involving chance: to gamble on a toss of the dice."

The key element between all definitions is the "game of chance" issue. Eliminate the chance and you eliminate gambling. At least according to the definition of the word.

Quote
Said the same thing the other day. Indicators show trend ... past tense, fibo predicts...yeah, maybe.

Fibs don't predict jack, except whenever they feel like it, and that's not so great. But there are definite times when the market has a memory and immediate past performance indicates immediate future results.
  • #344
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:03am Sep 29, 2008 7:03am
Quoting Ted1983
No you are wrong. That is still gambling. Please look up gambling in the dictionary.
thefreedictionary.com defines "gambling" as "An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk." With this broad definition we could conclude that all business, relationships, or any other endeavor that included a risk of success or failure is gambling, but most people would not consider all of life's activities as gambling, even if the outcome is almost always beyond 100% certainty.

On the other hand, thefreedictionary.com defines speculation as:
a. Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit.
b. A commercial or financial transaction involving speculation.

Which definition do you believe is a better fit for trading?
Visit my journal here.
  • #345
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:22am Sep 29, 2008 7:22am
Quoting Dracula
Hey man let me tell you something :
You DO NOT gamble in this market .
If you do so you are right .
This is a game of patience , science , money management , . . . .
There is a big stuff to learn.
so based off that you can pick it 100% every time when u buy the market moves up. when u sell it moves down for u each and every time u have total control of the market and your trades out come.

answer that in you mind then think about it and come back to me.

cheers
  • #346
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:13am Sep 29, 2008 8:13am
Quoting Rosscub
thefreedictionary.com defines "gambling" as "An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk." With this broad definition we could conclude that all business, relationships, or any other endeavor that included a risk of success or failure is gambling, but most people would not consider all of life's activities as gambling, even if the outcome is almost always beyond 100% certainty.

On the other hand, thefreedictionary.com defines speculation as:
a. Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit.
b. A commercial or financial transaction involving speculation.

Which definition do you believe is a better fit for trading?

In my other business I work with start up companies. I have seen many not make it past the first year or two. Some have continued to succeed. What all these business owners did was take a risk. If I could take a closer look I think we could conclude that some were taking a gamble and others where making a speculative venture. The difference is in the how they used the key variables to their advantage or disadvantage.

for example:

Why has Starbucks been able to open shop after shop and some of my acquaintance have opened coffee shops only to have it fail in a year or two? They were using the same vehicle (fresh delicious hot coffee). They are in the same town. They are using employees with similar skills. They all had good equipment.

Starbucks did not start out as a billion dollar company with a world recognized brand. They started out small just like my buddies tried too.

One took a gamble - the other a speculative venture.

The difference is preparation, using ALL the information available, maximizing your advantages, being sufficinetly capitalized, controlling risk and the willingness to adjust when conditions change.
  • #347
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:30am Sep 29, 2008 8:30am
Quoting KudzuFX
In my other business I work with start up companies. I have seen many not make it past the first year or two. Some have continued to succeed. What all these business owners did was take a risk. If I could take a closer look I think we could conclude that some were taking a gamble and others where making a speculative venture. The difference is in the how they used the key variables to their advantage or disadvantage.

for example:

Why has Starbucks been able to open shop after shop and some of my acquaintance have opened coffee shops only to have it fail in a year or two? They were using the same vehicle (fresh delicious hot coffee). They are in the same town. They are using employees with similar skills. They all had good equipment.

Starbucks did not start out as a billion dollar company with a world recognized brand. They started out small just like my buddies tried too.

One took a gamble - the other a speculative venture.

The difference is preparation, using ALL the information available, maximizing your advantages, being sufficinetly capitalized, controlling risk and the willingness to adjust when conditions change.
Well put.
Visit my journal here.
  • #348
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:19am Sep 29, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Rosscub
thefreedictionary.com defines "gambling" as "An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk." With this broad definition we could conclude that all business, relationships, or any other endeavor that included a risk of success or failure is gambling, but most people would not consider all of life's activities as gambling, even if the outcome is almost always beyond 100% certainty.

On the other hand, thefreedictionary.com defines speculation as:
a. Engagement in risky business transactions on the chance of quick or considerable profit.
b. A commercial or financial transaction involving speculation.

Which definition do you believe is a better fit for trading?
I guess which specific definition you chose depends on your own risk tolerance. And I do believe that all forms of business involve a gamble.

However the free dictionary definition was obviously concoted by a grade A moron, as it uses the word speculation to define speculation.
  • #349
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:29am Sep 29, 2008 9:29am
Quoting Ted1983
I guess which specific definition you chose depends on your own risk tolerance. And I do believe that all forms of business involve a gamble.

However the free dictionary definition was obviously concoted by a grade A moron, as it uses the word speculation to define speculation.

So maybe using the "free dictionary" is taking a gamble on finding the correct definition? :}

I would add that to me...
a gamble = leaving everything (or nearly everything) to chance
a venture = working everything you can to your advantage

Speculating becomes a gamble if the trader relies heavily on chance.
Speculating becomes a venture if the trader relies on skill, useful information and controls.
  • #350
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 29, 2008 9:38am | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
It's a construct for the weak and ill-informed.
  • #351
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:47am Sep 29, 2008 9:47am
Quoting acumen
It a contruct for the weak and ill-informed.
Like hell it is.
  • #352
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:51am Sep 29, 2008 9:51am
Quoting acumen
It a contruct for the weak and ill-informed.
what the hell is a .... contruct..........
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #353
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:01am Sep 29, 2008 10:01am
Quoting KudzuFX
In my other business I work with start up companies. I have seen many not make it past the first year or two. Some have continued to succeed. What all these business owners did was take a risk. If I could take a closer look I think we could conclude that some were taking a gamble and others where making a speculative venture. The difference is in the how they used the key variables to their advantage or disadvantage.

for example:

Why has Starbucks been able to open shop after shop and some of my acquaintance have opened coffee shops only to have it fail in a year or two? They were using the same vehicle (fresh delicious hot coffee). They are in the same town. They are using employees with similar skills. They all had good equipment.

Starbucks did not start out as a billion dollar company with a world recognized brand. They started out small just like my buddies tried too.

One took a gamble - the other a speculative venture.

The difference is preparation, using ALL the information available, maximizing your advantages, being sufficinetly capitalized, controlling risk and the willingness to adjust when conditions change.
Good post!

But do you really think it's all down to preparation? I think successful businesses have some sort of added ingredient. I don't know what it is, it's probably not even quantifiable, maybe it's something as simple as a will or determination to succeed without being desperate?

Translate it to (forex) traders, the ones who are desperate not to lose usually lose, why is that?
  • #354
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:10am Sep 29, 2008 10:10am
Quoting Spoony
Did anyone predicted the subprime crisis? I mean those investmant banks, lehman brothers, wamu and hundreds of super funds have gone bankrupt in the past few months. How could they not foreseen it? They been in the market for years longer than us and yet they r the first to go. Have they been gambling or speculating their way through?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=84461
  • #355
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:17am Sep 29, 2008 10:17am
'gambling', 'speculation', it's just semantics. I've known profitable gamblers and unprofitable speculators, and vice versa.

The word gambler still has a stigma attached to it, you immediately think of a down-on-his-luck casino or race track chancer trying to make some easy money, whereas speculator conjures up a picture of a wealthy property developer or City trader (well maybe not this last couple of weeks it doesn't!)

When someone asks me what I do I just say 'market analyst'
  • #356
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:18am Sep 29, 2008 10:18am
Quoting acumen
It a contruct for the weak and ill-informed.
Uncertainty, and therefore "luck", is demonstrable at the most fundamental levels of existence. Without it we loose free will, a tennet which is required for any functioning society, I'm sure you'll agree. The crux of this argument is that some people refuse to accept that they are not completely in control; Nobody llikes a control freak do they?
  • #357
  • Sep 29, 2008 10:19am Sep 29, 2008 10:19am
Quoting lostinspace
'gambling', 'speculation', it's just semantics. I've known profitable gamblers and unprofitable speculators, and vice versa.

The word gambler still has a stigma attached to it, you immediately think of a down-on-his-luck casino or race track chancer trying to make some easy money, whereas speculator conjures the picture of a wealthy property developer or City trader.

When someone asks me what I do I just say 'market analyst'
Agreed. The word gamble for some is a four letter word.
  • #358
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:41pm Sep 29, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting lostinspace
Good post!

But do you really think it's all down to preparation? I think successful businesses have some sort of added ingredient. I don't know what it is, it's probably not even quantifiable, maybe it's something as simple as a will or determination to succeed without being desperate?

Translate it to (forex) traders, the ones who are desperate not to lose usually lose, why is that?


I think that's a good question. There is probably more than one way to express this but I would say that KEY ingredient you mentioned is the ability to get the big picture and the little picture at the same time and the ability to know the difference. Basically this mental skill is necessary for knowing how stuff works and why stuff works.

So many times traders are glued to a screen setup or a group of indicators. These traders cannot see the forest. Other traders are glued to hearing all the buzz around the market. They cannot see the trees. You gotta see how it all fits together with your style of trading.

This may sound like an oversimplification, but I think that the traders who succeed are the kind of people who focus on how stuff works and why stuff works. Wanting it to work is not enough even if you want it really, really badly.

Persistence is a good thing, but only when you are on the right path. Persistence can kill you if you keep doing stupid stuff.

Certainly, we get lucky sometimes, but you can't live on luck - watch this and you will see what I mean.
Inserted Video
  • #359
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:46pm Sep 29, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting Ted1983
Uncertainty, and therefore "luck", is demonstrable at the most fundamental levels of existence. Without it we loose free will, a tennet which is required for any functioning society, I'm sure you'll agree. The crux of this argument is that some people refuse to accept that they are not completely in control; Nobody llikes a control freak do they?

I'd like to buy some luck - where can I get some?



(note: luck cannot be quanitfied because luck does not exist)
  • #360
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:29pm Sep 29, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting KudzuFX
I'd like to buy some luck - where can I get some?



(note: luck cannot be quanitfied because luck does not exist)

Please let me clarify. Luck in the superstitious sense does not exist. No right thinking individual believes it does. However there is an element of random chance in everything. This is what I was refering to when using the term "luck".
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