DislikedDid anyone predicted the subprime crisis? Have they been gambling or speculating their way through?Ignored
Yes, and yes.
Why your broker is your friend and your enemy 4 replies
Why don't traders admit that they are not profitable in trading? 12 replies
Cutting your risk, letting your profits run 7 replies
Luck be a lady ... Your unlucky trades 18 replies
DislikedDid anyone predicted the subprime crisis? Have they been gambling or speculating their way through?Ignored
DislikedAnyone got any idea what has happened to Tdion?
His display pic and all his profile is gone, real strange.Ignored
DislikedDid anyone predicted the subprime crisis? I mean those investmant banks, lehman brothers, wamu and hundreds of super funds have gone bankrupt in the past few months. How could they not foreseen it? They been in the market for years longer than us and yet they r the first to go. Have they been gambling or speculating their way through?Ignored
Dislikedthis is an old technique (like 30 years old!) and its prone to failure. this is addressed extensively in the market wizard books as well as fred gehms book. if you search for thousands of patterns, obviously a few good ones will pop up. but what have you done other than predict the past? if you read my article i wrote for S&C, youll see that my opinion is that you are going about this backward. i believe in starting with a fundamental premise (which can only be derived from market experience) and then build the system based on that premise. dont let the data tell you what to do, instead you should come up with a premise and "ask" the data if you are right or wrong about it. and you cant ask too many times, because then the data will start to control you. control the system development process or it will control you!Ignored
DislikedDear Thread,
As long as someone is wondering whether anyone predicted the subprime crisis, allow me to answer John Paulson of Paulson Associates made approximately $3.7 billion personally by shorting the whole thing. He thought of the trade, designed the trade (it couldn't be done at the time), suffered through the trade moving against him, and had the conviciton of adding to his position and, of course, hung in there. The trade of the century thus far, frankly. Warren Buffet's buy into Goldman's, stepping up to the plate literally (where were the other buyers?), will also look prescient in years to come.
LenoxerIgnored
DislikedSo no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....
you are nothing without your better half: the market.
She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.
Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.Ignored
DislikedLaff... depends on your definition of gambling.
Strictly speaking any bet on a game of chance is gambling, so yes, individual trades are gambling in that sense.
But if you have a defined statistical edge that plays out over time, you're playing w/ the law of large numbers on your side and it stops being gambling as a larger number of trades are taken... moving beyond a game of chance.Ignored
QuoteDislikedI'll say it again, the entire point was that a given "statistical edge" might disappear at any given moment due to changes in volume and market structure over the years.
DislikedI wonder what Mr Paulson would think if he knew he was being discussed in a thread entitled "Admit it - your profits are based on luck". LOL.
Ignored
DislikedI'll say it again, the entire point was that a given "statistical edge" might disappear at any given moment due to changes in volume and market structure over the years.Ignored
DislikedSo no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....
you are nothing without your better half: the market.
She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.
Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.Ignored