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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,821
  • Sep 26, 2008 10:44am Sep 26, 2008 10:44am
Quoting mackus
You were right, once I got to 1.5875 I was finally in profit. Closed the position after 1 week of negative roll and still was profitable for the entire trade. Reopened long at 1.5871.
Closed the trade for a profit at 1.5918.
  • #1,822
  • Sep 26, 2008 11:58am Sep 26, 2008 11:58am
Quoting boeingdriver
piplab,

we want to be 'dollar neutral', if you don't understand what it means you either read the 100++ pages of this thread

or you read its summary:

Thank you for the summary. Truly appreciated.
  • #1,823
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:59pm Sep 26, 2008 12:59pm
No problem, I will try to keep the summary up to date, so we can ask Spielers more important question.

All questions are important, but when they have been answered over and over...

I closed also my Long Position at around 0%, as Ihad to go, so nice profit is taken before the week end!

Enjoy it,
See ya on Mo.
BD
  • #1,824
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:35pm Sep 26, 2008 2:35pm
Anyone catch that short at the very end of the day? I didn't. Spiked to 1.5965 at 4:45 EST then closed at 1.5937. Wouldn't have been an official entry or exit according to this system but still would've been a REALLY quick profit.
  • #1,825
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:44pm Sep 26, 2008 2:44pm
Dang, that sounds nice. Too bad I'm testing this system on IBFX, which closes at 4:00P EST on Fridays.

Quoting mackus
Anyone catch that short at the very end of the day? I didn't. Spiked to 1.5965 at 4:45 EST then closed at 1.5937. Wouldn't have been an official entry or exit according to this system but still would've been a REALLY quick profit.
  • #1,826
  • Sep 26, 2008 10:43pm Sep 26, 2008 10:43pm
spieler-

Sorry, it seems like I am asking for an answer to the same question twice but I only ask if the schedule is correct because I want to be certain that when you say ‘You are 100% correct and we don’t mix intraday and interday (overnight)’ that you mean the schedule is correct and also that there has been no misunderstanding between us about intraday and interday. Reading your post again, I do think that you mean both so now the following rule should be added to the overall entry/ exit schedule.

For all entries and re-entries involving moves of +/- 0.25% or +/-0.50%, always wait for intraday move from last entry/ exit or from the daily open using which ever is the furthest away.

For all entries and re-entries involving moves of +/- 1.0% or greater, always enter on interday move from last entry/ exit point.

Think I have got that right now and thanks again for the clarification. Very important and makes a huge difference to the MM.
  • #1,827
  • Sep 27, 2008 12:07am Sep 27, 2008 12:07am
Dear Spieler,

I have been making very nice profits with your system over the past couple of weeks, and not even one losing trade, so thanks for sharing your system with us!

I do have another question about it: would this system work with a broker that doesn't pay/charge swap?
  • #1,828
  • Sep 27, 2008 11:27am Sep 27, 2008 11:27am
To Spieler and the other participants:

I've been looking for some ways to avoid the drawdown caused by the negative swap when you hold short positions for a long time. One obvious way is to take only long positions. But there is another way I would like your feedback on: on the beginning of each trading day, you take a long position (unless of course you already have a position open). If EUR/CHF then goes up, you close with a profit. If it goes down, you add lots according to the regular entry rules. What do you think?
  • #1,829
  • Sep 27, 2008 2:30pm Sep 27, 2008 2:30pm
I have read almost this entire thread and have read the Word document twice. I am missing a very simple piece of information that would clarify quite a bit for me.

How do you calculate the percentages?

For example, when someone says, "eur/chf is -.20%", how would you know if eur/chf is -.20%?

How do you calculate the divergence percentages? Do you always calculate it on eur/chf? or eur/usd and usd/chf?

Thanks,

Frank
  • #1,830
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:32am Sep 28, 2008 1:32am
Quoting frank99
I have read almost this entire thread and have read the Word document twice. I am missing a very simple piece of information that would clarify quite a bit for me.

How do you calculate the percentages?

For example, when someone says, "eur/chf is -.20%", how would you know if eur/chf is -.20%?

How do you calculate the divergence percentages? Do you always calculate it on eur/chf? or eur/usd and usd/chf?

Thanks,

Frank
Hi Frank,

as a rule of thumb, if the price has moved 40 pips from the value of 0:00 gmt candle close you have either +0,25% or -0,25%. always on eurchf so you get indication to enter the hedge on eurusd and usdchf.

Regards
  • #1,831
  • Sep 28, 2008 3:22am Sep 28, 2008 3:22am
Quoting pipsalot
To Spieler and the other participants:

I've been looking for some ways to avoid the drawdown caused by the negative swap when you hold short positions for a long time. One obvious way is to take only long positions. But there is another way I would like your feedback on: on the beginning of each trading day, you take a long position (unless of course you already have a position open). If EUR/CHF then goes up, you close with a profit. If it goes down, you add lots according to the regular entry rules. What do you think?
Hi,
VERY SMART !
Congratulations ! An amazing system and (sometime) a smart add-on. I'd be very pleased to see Spieler's consideration about it. For myself I'll give it a try asap !

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #1,832
  • Sep 28, 2008 11:39am Sep 28, 2008 11:39am
Quoting frank99
I have read almost this entire thread and have read the Word document twice. I am missing a very simple piece of information that would clarify quite a bit for me.

How do you calculate the percentages?

For example, when someone says, "eur/chf is -.20%", how would you know if eur/chf is -.20%?

How do you calculate the divergence percentages? Do you always calculate it on eur/chf? or eur/usd and usd/chf?

Thanks,

Frank
There are a number of indicators attached to this thread which calculate the percentages and draw them as lines on your chart, some have alerts as well.

Download any one of them and attach it to EURCHF 1 hour chart
Regards
  • #1,833
  • Sep 28, 2008 12:27pm Sep 28, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting pipsalot
To Spieler and the other participants:

I've been looking for some ways to avoid the drawdown caused by the negative swap when you hold short positions for a long time. One obvious way is to take only long positions. But there is another way I would like your feedback on: on the beginning of each trading day, you take a long position (unless of course you already have a position open). If EUR/CHF then goes up, you close with a profit. If it goes down, you add lots according to the regular entry rules. What do you think?
pipsalot-

In my opinion this sounds like a good idea but in reality it would be very bad, for two reasons:

Firstly, if the position goes against you then having your Lot1 entered on the zero line will impact greatly on your possiable overall DD should you get caught in a trendy move. This means, should you decide to try this, you should scale back your lot sizes to allow for this extra DD and the knock on effect of that is that you will earn less from the more regular small ranging moves.

Secondly,and much more importantly, having Lot1 entered on the zero line totally changes the point at which you will be able to exit the overall position at BE or a profit.

I do agree that there should be a better solution to the negative swap problem than simply 'close any short position older than 10 days at profit or loss' but unfortunatly I don't think this is it (wish it was). Until a solution is found you could just trade the shorts by opening Lot1 & Lot2 using half your normal lot size and then only move to full Lot size on the entry of Lot3. This makes any short position much easier to close quicker, even if you get caught in quite a trendy move. True you earn less on short trades but it's better than not trading the shorts at all or loosing sleep over the negative swap buildup
  • #1,834
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:40pm Sep 28, 2008 1:40pm
Thanks for the replies guys. This was helpful. I will look for those indicators.
  • #1,835
  • Sep 28, 2008 2:36pm Sep 28, 2008 2:36pm
I wonder if it's too hard or impossible to program a successful EA for this system? I tried the EA posted way back, but it doesn't seem to work.
  • #1,836
  • Sep 28, 2008 2:58pm Sep 28, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting pipsalot
To Spieler and the other participants:

I've been looking for some ways to avoid the drawdown caused by the negative swap when you hold short positions for a long time. One obvious way is to take only long positions. But there is another way I would like your feedback on: on the beginning of each trading day, you take a long position (unless of course you already have a position open). If EUR/CHF then goes up, you close with a profit. If it goes down, you add lots according to the regular entry rules. What do you think?

The long trades only idea does have merit. But instead of automatically opening a long position at the beginning of the day why not only open long when the price is x pips below an MA of your choice. Then add new trades if it continues down. If it goes down from there at least you didn't buy at the top and saved quite a bit of DD to your account. The profits will be less when it ranges and you will make less money when the price heads back north because you have fewer trades on the table. It all depends on the DD you are willing to endure. There is a system built on these ideas but it is not right to discuss it on this thread. This thread has been very enlightening.
  • #1,837
  • Sep 28, 2008 3:58pm Sep 28, 2008 3:58pm
Opened long @ EUR/CHF 1.5892
  • #1,838
  • Sep 28, 2008 4:20pm Sep 28, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting mackus
Opened long @ EUR/CHF 1.5892
I'm with you in my live account !

BBF
BigBlackfeet Always on the(forex) war path !
  • #1,839
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:29pm Sep 28, 2008 10:29pm
fRIDAY POSITIONS HAD BEEN CLOSED AT 159, 10 with a nice profit

I am long again at 158,70 1 minute ago
market looks very volatil today can go up and down any moment
crazy market
  • #1,840
  • Edited Sep 29, 2008 2:15am Sep 28, 2008 10:32pm | Edited Sep 29, 2008 2:15am
I have no problem with the short swap doing them on a charria account
so i have never think of how TO avoid them.
The 10 days rule was for readers to not accumulate too many negativ swaps
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