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go live or bust ... diary of an fx live-trader-wannabe

  • #41
  • Edited 5:50pm Sep 26, 2008 5:10pm | Edited 5:50pm
CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY

all similar PA (the pins themselves are not as strong a signal).

AUDJPY PA going to run straight into a resistance ceiling that could be tough to get past.

none of these will be traded as the PA is just not convincing enuf.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #42
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:26pm Sep 26, 2008 5:26pm
single bearish outside bar ... this one looks good ... bearish sentiment & DM- re-crossed over DM+ & this PA has validated the EPR ... my entry (2016) which is below the last area of support that price needs to cut thru (2023) ... next place price is supported is 1904 & if it can close below it, i'll be working on a breakeven trade, to wit, freerollling.

now, if only oanda's spreads weren't so wacky over the weekend and on sunday ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #43
  • Edited 5:55pm Sep 26, 2008 5:32pm | Edited 5:55pm
TSL was moved to 5174, price shot up to 5169 only, but i got stopped out anyway ... feel like this is just another example of oanda increasing spreads beyond its posted rates during the news --- affecting a non-news-trader such as myself ... shrug. otherwise, today i could have moved TSL to locked profits. review this when oanda's friday maintenance of servers completed later.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #44
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:57pm Sep 26, 2008 5:57pm
GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD still sideways ... potential t/b stopped out of the GBPUSD once the "official" release of the bailout plan happens ... oh well, i'll just have to wait & see.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #45
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:59pm Sep 26, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting fxgrinder
AUDNZD ... no change
GBPJPY ... no change
stopped out of both -- 2 x 2% loss on both.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #46
  • Sep 28, 2008 7:56pm Sep 28, 2008 7:56pm
IB following bearish outside bar ... previous outside bear didn't trigger, but i like playing IB's w/ present sentiment & PA + PA = tradeable signal. also, crossover/EPR still in place which gave new life to the bears (despite recent bullish exhaustion/correction) ...

im placing a short order off the outside bar ... SL moved to the entry of new trade ... (im still bearish on the USD, but this bailout is generating some short term resistance for PA.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #47
  • Edited Sep 29, 2008 11:30am Sep 28, 2008 8:36pm | Edited Sep 29, 2008 11:30am
should have played this 2BL ... but b/c it was w/in 6 pips instead of 2, i followed the j16 rule on it; don't think this rule is as important as the other surrounding factors, such as: had been playing it short off the IB, PA confirmed short w/ the bearish outside bar (unfortunately oanda screwed me on the trade), & my USDCAD short is still going strong ... might have made the 4 pip exception here.

other: EURUSD had similar PA (bearish outside bar that didn't trigger by NY close, but formed a 2BL w/in 6 pips) & crossover/EPR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 19 KB
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #48
  • Edited 11:25am Sep 29, 2008 11:10am | Edited 11:25am
uggh. too busy sunday to look over my charts again & missed a good one. not entirely sure of where i would have entered (maybe off the japanese candlestick bearish continuation looking pattern or the wedge i commented on in an earlier post --- demark is good for that) ... assuming i did, would likely be moving TSL to b/e at closing bell. oh well.
Attached Image
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #49
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:20am Sep 29, 2008 11:20am
both TSL's hit on these trades -- (both in the black).
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #50
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:21am Sep 29, 2008 11:21am
Quoting fxgrinder
IB following bearish outside bar ... previous outside bear didn't trigger, but i like playing IB's w/ present sentiment & PA + PA = tradeable signal. also, crossover/EPR still in place which gave new life to the bears (despite recent bullish exhaustion/correction) ...

im placing a short order off the outside bar ... SL moved to the entry of new trade ... (im still bearish on the USD, but this bailout is generating some short term resistance for PA.
long order stopped out ... short order triggered. (TP order on 1% set)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #51
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:27am Sep 29, 2008 11:27am
Quoting fxgrinder
single bearish outside bar ... this one looks good ... bearish sentiment & DM- re-crossed over DM+ & this PA has validated the EPR ... my entry (2016) which is below the last area of support that price needs to cut thru (2023) ... next place price is supported is 1904 & if it can close below it, i'll be working on a breakeven trade, to wit, freerollling.

now, if only oanda's spreads weren't so wacky over the weekend and on sunday ...
placed a short order yesterday when i got home (2025). good momentum during london/NY so should move more during aussie/tokyo sessions.

(TP order on 1% set)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #52
  • Edited 4:17pm Sep 29, 2008 11:37am | Edited 4:17pm
EURGBP - bullish outside bar (but same problems here w/ resistance as b/f); update at 1230pst: price just tested 1st level of resistance & dropped; final decision = PASS
USDCHF - bearish PB?; update at 1230pst: PA might form bearish outside bar ...; final = didn't close as a perfect BEOB
USDJPY - bearish outside bar; update at 1230pst: price supported at 10376, 10354 --- breakeven at next support level (10257) ... then, price has room to run to 9600-9500 ... thinking about this one (also b/c of the fundamentals in play creating resistance) ... think im going to gamble on this due to the fundamentals & RRR ... see post below
CADJPY - 3-day bearish outside bar (this might be pushing it); final decision = PASS (one gamble is enuf in this market)
EURAUD - bullish outside bar (blew right past resistance; next resistance at 8256 which is a highest, high; update: no experience jumping into a trend already pressing the outer limits so i think i better pass; final = PASS
added EURCAD - bullish proxy pin (but against strong bearish momentum & also running straight into one resistance level after another) ... ??; final = PASS ... to dodgy for my taste
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #53
  • Edited 4:17pm Sep 29, 2008 11:41am | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting fxgrinder
AUDUSD ... double inside day that is also a 2BH; price is still below 2 levels of resistance; however, the entry wouldn't trigger until after price climbed past both levels ... i am still bearish the USD, bear momentum is exhausted, but a b/o is pending off congressional action/conduct ... revisit (review notes from yesterday as well) ... [okay, i did revisit: resistance at 8511 ... pass]
PA moved w/ bearish sentiment & is presently 100+ pips from entry off low of the 1st IB. i was too cautious here maybe. (hence my reason to forward test IB's in sub-account)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #54
  • Sep 29, 2008 11:52am Sep 29, 2008 11:52am
"But all these questions haven't stopped the dollar bulls from coming back in force. The dollar has rallied hard since Friday morning, and throughout the Asian and European overnight markets. The euro (EUR) is now trading with a 1.43 handle, and… It just keeps moving downward. Does this make sense to anyone? The U.S. government is planning on pumping dollar after dollar into the system. They are planning on taking on $700 billion in more debt that will most likely become at least $1 trillion and more. And it still won't prevent lenders from failing. But the dollar rallies… Sounds like currency intervention, smells like currency intervention, and walks like currency intervention… It must be currency intervention!"

i dont feel so bad now ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #55
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:32pm Sep 29, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting fxgrinder
USDCHF - bearish PB?
possible answer to the question mark in my head ...

"The ongoing instability in the financial sector suggests that the market is far from recovery, which would only enhance the appeal of the Swiss Franc’s safe haven status in the near-term." (from dailyfx.com)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #56
  • Sep 29, 2008 12:34pm Sep 29, 2008 12:34pm
Quoting fxgrinder
USDJPY - bearish outside bar
i could be persuaded here:

"Such distressed market conditions typically bode well for the Japanese Yen, and it seems increasingly likely that we see further USDJPY declines before a noteworthy rebound." (from dailyfx.com)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #57
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:35pm Sep 29, 2008 2:35pm
begin forward testing IB's for 1 month in sub-account.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #58
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:44pm Sep 29, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting fxgrinder
thank you so much!!! i just glanced at them and plan to read them when i get back from my hike today ...

cheers and good trading.

p.s. i too love that post from Peter Crown.
I'm glad you like them. Another user on the site has a link to
a site with a lot more:

www.theforexbooks.com

Some are from users who make their own systems and some are
from magazines like Stocks & Commodities and Currency Trader magazine.
I included another one.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FOREX - Currency-Trading-For-Us.pdf   228 KB | 623 downloads
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #59
  • Sep 29, 2008 4:08pm Sep 29, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting fxgrinder
placed a short order yesterday when i got home (2025). good momentum during london/NY so should move more during aussie/tokyo sessions.
TSL moved to break even. fudged a bit here due to market volatility (price moved past 162% to 1904 -- a support level & then corrected above 150% -- so technically, i should be moving TSL to reduce risk level at 50%) i am just going to see if aussie session can push price past support level which gives me a good chance to reach my RR target. if i get stopped out here, it's no big deal b/c of the markets & im pleased w/ my decision-making on this trade either way.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #60
  • Sep 29, 2008 4:12pm Sep 29, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting fxgrinder
im placing a short order off the outside bar ... SL moved to the entry of new trade ...
fudging on this one too. price tested my 200% level & rebounded just shy of 162% where i would have trailed stop to 1st locked profits so i am going w/ that (instead of moving to breakeven where i should technically be moving it since price closed only below 150%) & i'll cross my fingers for further downward pressure in the short term.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
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