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  • #3,761
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:46pm Sep 25, 2008 5:46pm
Quoting hyh
sales were as bad as expected, in 'normal' markets usd had to be wiped after such news, but today i don't get the situation, usd bulls are happy to have that bill and $ inflow (+ more budget deficit), all i wonder is 'why?'
what about big M aggregate => low value (currency depreciation) rule?
i don't know, maybe nobody cares about macrofactors nowadays and just speculate, being driven by sentiments, playing a momentum, for me its really irrational to favor US economy in its current state and be bullish on that rescue package N223.
Trend started off as down on that news and when the spike came against the trend people were selling into it - sparked that immediate attention there and it looks like the flows took over for the rest of the day.

And yeah the sentiment is weighing everything down heavily so far. Price moved in the direction I mentioned earlier today but for other reasons. Overall we're still wading away in consolidation for news on this bailout, I agree with you 100% about that. Everything else not seeming to weigh so much right now.

I meantioned in an earlier post that in general, across the board, sentiment (based on options) has USD longs set in place for the very short term; but I'm really curious whats going to happen when more news strikes.

With Paulson and Bernanke on hold of any more major actions after the bailout became a political issue it seems everyone just has their ears to the ground at this point.
  • #3,762
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:22pm Sep 25, 2008 9:22pm
Fortunately I bailed on my stock before this happened. . . .

I am just kinda in awe, and you guys are the only financial guys I know to discuss, so sorry if this is a bit out of place. . .

The govt seized Wamu and sold the 20 billion deposit base to chase for 1.9 billion (thus pocketing the money), and left the rest to rot.....Methinks if Investment banks had the whole "sell the positive deposits and leave behind the mortgage issue"

I am just kind of shocked that govt could do this. . . I mean I know they can, but it just seems like a dark day for capitalism and democracy. . .

Oh well, so long as they keep their hands off my forex. . . .Should be an interesting day on the street tomorrow. . . what does this mean for the dollar?

(BTW I am SO buying Morgan. . . they just added 18 bln assets in 12 hrs with no downside)
  • #3,763
  • Sep 25, 2008 10:00pm Sep 25, 2008 10:00pm
.
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  • #3,764
  • Sep 26, 2008 12:15am Sep 26, 2008 12:15am
Looks like its headed for some fun

http://i38.tinypic.com/2lsjhw8.jpg



edit:....may have missed the obvious support at .26 along the way down in which case sell @195.19
  • #3,765
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:00am Sep 26, 2008 1:00am
Quoting birdt
Here you go Willow. You can alter the size and position of the text etc., through the indicator options.
Thanks birdt
  • #3,766
  • Sep 26, 2008 1:41am Sep 26, 2008 1:41am
Looking for a bounce off around 1.4560 .. any thoughts guys?
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  • #3,767
  • Edited 4:23am Sep 26, 2008 2:40am | Edited 4:23am
Big news out tonight is the JP Morgan acquisition of Washington Mutual here in the U.S. , but for some reason Lindsay Lohan’s coming out of the closet announcement is still getting more hits on news sites. Are we at the point where we’re just getting used to this? No resolution yet on the bailout and the media has turned it into a feeding frenzy, bring clamor and noise to Congress when all we really need is action. Consumer confidence is getting worse and sill not seeing any signs of SPX recovery. Treasuries are rising. Risk aversion going on. We’re in consolidation. European markets are moving lower in early trading. Isn’t this all nice.

Expecting Yen crosses to move lower, unless some miraculous news concerning the bailout, which is unlikely. Option sentiment points lower. Some possible UJ entry levels are 106.30, 107.00, 107.20, or wherever a direct hit takes place on that big hourly diagonal trendline sloping downwards. EJ has entries at the 156.88-157.00 area, 157.76, and the 50% retracement, 158.50.

Again with a focus on risk and with commodities drifting along, possibly see a move lower on EUR, GBP, AUD, etc. as well but not afraid to buy bounces. 111-112 area is big resistance on crude. Again I’m sticking to my guns on the stronger dollar tendencies over the longhaul, but for now, consolidation of a few hundred pips is seen on these. New Zealand is now officially in recession as well, thought it would be good to point out. Option sentiment is generally mixed or looking at lower liquidity on these pairs tonight.

EUR has technical levels at 1.4540-45, 1.4460 area, 1.4372 is the 50% retracement, and there’s an upward sloping diagonal trendline to look out for, which could get a bounce.

For anyone that missed the article written by George Soros today on the bailout I thought it was an interesting read. You can find it here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9973c5b0-8...nclick_check=1
  • #3,768
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:47am Sep 26, 2008 2:47am
This was just announced - affect: push EUR/USD lower.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...8-233dd0d78941
  • #3,769
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:23am Sep 26, 2008 4:23am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Hornet, I dont personally use them but I know of others traders that do and trade successfully using them. From what I understand of market profile I dont see whay it wouldnt fit the bill for using it in terms of support and resistance; in fact Ive seen it written about in this regard in articles. There's downrivertrader here on FF that uses points of control, from what I understand about it, and I think he does pretty well trading it. Its a whole can of worms though and to be honest I never got into it too much. If you have any articles or anything to post I'd be happy to look at them. Thanks,
BRV,

I was thinking more along the lines of using previous days POC for S&R levels but the problem with forex is that the volumes are not centralised so, the levels you'll get would be based on your brokers volumes only. We would all get different results. I don't think it will make a great deal of difference but overall, maybe, not applicable to FX markets because of this ?

These are the notions so far:

The best support/resistance I've found is the Market Profile, which some charting programs call the Price Histogram. Most MP charts are time based (not volume). The most common chart is a 5-minute or 30-minute chart that builds a histogram for each day. The bell-curve histogram that shows how much time was spent at each price point. The price point at which the market spent the most amount of time during the day is called the Point of Control.

http://www.enthios.com/universal.htm

I will investigate further and let you know.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,770
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:31am Sep 26, 2008 4:31am
Thanks BRV.

I bailed out and took 20 pips

Quoting BillyRayValentine
This was just announced - affect: push EUR/USD lower.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...8-233dd0d78941
  • #3,771
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:41am Sep 26, 2008 4:41am
I also found this Indicator that maps it out but does not show a POC. Maybe some of our good coders could work on it and give us POC for previous days.

A POC is valid only if it hasn't been touched by price, in this case they are allowed to extend to today's action. These are called VPOV (Virgin Point of Control). The principle behind it is that PA hoovered at a certain level for the most amount of time because it was most comfortable there. Creating an empasse between supply and demand, this should generate a natural barrier level.

We could also base this on just time spent at one level (instead of adding volumes exchanged, like in the link above). This will overcome the volumes issue on the FX market.


Maybe this will lead to nothing but I believe it's worth a try.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 market profile.mq4   6 KB | 462 downloads
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,772
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:53am Sep 26, 2008 5:53am
[quote=hornet;2243854]I also found this Indicator that maps it out but does not show a POC. Maybe some of our good coders could work on it and give us POC for previous days.

A POC is valid only if it hasn't been touched by price, in this case they are allowed to extend to today's action. These are called VPOV (Virgin Point of Control). The principle behind it is that PA hoovered at a certain level for the most amount of time because it was most comfortable there. Creating an empasse between supply and demand, this should generate a natural barrier level.

We could also base this on just time spent at one level (instead of adding volumes exchanged, like in the link above). This will overcome the volumes issue on the FX market.


Hi Hornet,

I will load my version which has POC which shows up as a White line to the left of the histogram.




Regards,

BabeFX
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 marketprofile.mq4   5 KB | 505 downloads
  • #3,773
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:56am Sep 26, 2008 5:56am
Thanks BabeFX,
I can't acces the platform right now, is it something like this ?

http://www.enthios.com/images/EE%202008-02-05-0914.png
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,774
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:25am Sep 26, 2008 6:25am
How does this POC pivot stand up to standard pivot points? I used standard pivots for ages until it finally twigged that price doesn't actually respect them a great deal of the time. These POC methods are more obscure and less people probably use them so is it not unreasonable to expect that price will not respect them any more than standard pivots? I'm sure they have some value or they would not exist but I find it hard to see how these are going to provide 'no-brainer' trades, unless they were found to be in confluence with support and resistance derived by other means.
  • #3,775
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:26am Sep 26, 2008 6:26am
Hornet,

This is a screen shot of my version.

Regards,

BabeFX.
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  • #3,776
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:41am Sep 26, 2008 6:41am
Babe, thanks again.

Ideally I would like to see the POC drawn to the right of the histogram up to today's action if POC hasn't been crossed by PA. Like in the picture I showed. Making it a VPOC.

That would make things interesting and worth looking at.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,777
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:54am Sep 26, 2008 6:54am
Quoting birdt
How does this POC pivot stand up to standard pivot points? I used standard pivots for ages until it finally twigged that price doesn't actually respect them a great deal of the time. These POC methods are more obscure and less people probably use them so is it not unreasonable to expect that price will not respect them any more than standard pivots? I'm sure they have some value or they would not exist but I find it hard to see how these are going to provide 'no-brainer' trades, unless they were found to be in confluence with support and resistance derived by other means.
I was just thinking in terms of identifying S&R by different means. And this could be Market Profile, by finding where PA hoovered the longest during any single day. You stick it on charts and evaluate how PA acts when returning to those levels. Then again the Futures market are a totally different markets compared with FX, and what works with one might not work with another.

Pivots are difficult because based on where you decide to start the calculation, you will get different results. This is true for Market Profile also but the time spent at a certain price will usually be around the EURO/UK/US sessions.

Going back to PP, if you want to try it out, I can suggest 17.00 ET as the starting time. If then PA breaks out of either R2 or S2 during UK session, adjust to 07.00 ET current day as the start time for the rest of US session.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,778
  • Sep 26, 2008 7:00am Sep 26, 2008 7:00am
Short 154.45 - 50 ??

Comments please.....
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  • #3,779
  • Sep 26, 2008 7:33am Sep 26, 2008 7:33am
Quoting Grath
Short 154.45 - 50 ??

Comments please.....
I like it - I was looking at this tonight - Im just wondering if it'll get up that far. its using 153.50 right now as a good baseline. next spot higher is at about 155.00
  • #3,780
  • Sep 26, 2008 7:38am Sep 26, 2008 7:38am
About a 25-30 pip trade so far but whatevs I'll take it. Its Friday - I dont hang around too long on Fridays.
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